bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game

[arvindr]

Yeah, the auction will go ahead: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=818014.0

Do you have any plans if the auction is not succesful?

[BBmmBB]

Yeah, the auction will go ahead: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=818014.0

COPACABANA ?

http://cs323822.vk.me/v323822776/a056/MeydgmD5QVs.jpg

[Dabs]

>could you not come to the same hash result by simply shifting variables?  :\
^ i'm i making sense? tia

For all practical intents and purposes, you can not.

[dooglus]

>could you not come to the same hash result by simply shifting variables?  :\
^ i'm i making sense? tia

For all practical intents and purposes, you can not.

Please don't feed the troll. We've been over this many many times.

Nobody knows how to get the same hash by changing the input. That's the whole point.

The ideal cryptographic hash function has four main properties:

* it is easy to compute the hash value for any given message

* it is infeasible to generate a message that has a given hash

* it is infeasible to modify a message without changing the hash

* it is infeasible to find two different messages with the same hash.

If you click 'ignore', you won't see his messages. You'll only get to see his nonsense if someone else quotes it. If enough of us do it, there won't be anyone left to quote it.

You may say I'm a dreamer. But I'm not the only one.

[el kaka22]

t was like playing a kite ..
i've done to try

[dooglus]

t was like playing a kite ..
i've done to try

See how high you can fly before it hits the overhead power lines?

It's like poetry. Or something.

[scottybweyy]

This game has been fun but is confusing. I'm hoping someone can answer the following questions.

1. What is an example where no one collects a bonus and it carried over to next game?
2. The strategy guide states the house expected return is "1% * playersInGame * tableAmount". I'm confused why the number of players in the game matters for the House_EV? Can someone elaborate/clarify?
3. In the FAQ, a 2nd house EV formula is listed as "1 % * (intendedCashOut - roomAmount) * (roomAmount / intendedCashOut)". Why are there 2 House_EV formulas?
4. In the chat, it was stated the the multiplier is calculated by using a random number from 0 to 1 in the formula m(r)=(99+r)/(100*r). Is this true?
5. Using the below variables, how would you represent Player EV ignoring the bonus profit?

P_EV = Player EV
r_AW = roomAmountWagered
p_AW = playerAmountWagered
p_M = playerMultiplier

P_EV =

[jaysabi]

This game has been fun but is confusing. I'm hoping someone can answer the following questions.

1. What is an example where no one collects a bonus and it carried over to next game?
2. The strategy guide states the house expected return is "1% * playersInGame * tableAmount". I'm confused why the number of players in the game matters for the House_EV? Can someone elaborate/clarify?
3. In the FAQ, a 2nd house EV formula is listed as "1 % * (intendedCashOut - roomAmount) * (roomAmount / intendedCashOut)". Why are there 2 House_EV formulas?
4. In the chat, it was stated the the multiplier is calculated by using a random number from 0 to 1 in the formula m(r)=(99+r)/(100*r). Is this true?
5. Using the below variables, how would you represent Player EV ignoring the bonus profit?

P_EV = Player EV
r_AW = roomAmountWagered
p_AW = playerAmountWagered
p_M = playerMultiplier

P_EV =

In re: question 1, I believe the only time a bonus is not paid to someone is if the game crashes at 0.

[cowbay]

This game has been fun but is confusing. I'm hoping someone can answer the following questions.

1. What is an example where no one collects a bonus and it carried over to next game?
2. The strategy guide states the house expected return is "1% * playersInGame * tableAmount". I'm confused why the number of players in the game matters for the House_EV? Can someone elaborate/clarify?
3. In the FAQ, a 2nd house EV formula is listed as "1 % * (intendedCashOut - roomAmount) * (roomAmount / intendedCashOut)". Why are there 2 House_EV formulas?
4. In the chat, it was stated the the multiplier is calculated by using a random number from 0 to 1 in the formula m(r)=(99+r)/(100*r). Is this true?
5. Using the below variables, how would you represent Player EV ignoring the bonus profit?

P_EV = Player EV
r_AW = roomAmountWagered
p_AW = playerAmountWagered
p_M = playerMultiplier

P_EV =

1. I believe all bonuses are paid out for each game.  If there is leftover after cashed out players are paid, the uncashed out players will be paid.  0x does not pay bonus but 1x does.
2 and 3 I cannot answer as I have not looked at the code nor am I qualified to calculate
4. The multiplier is 1/(1-rand()), subsequently adjusted for 1% house edge
5. see 2 and 3.

If you are looking to play +EV, you should be looking to take more than your share in bonus.  You should:

1. Look for games where the top bet is not disproportional compared to overall pot.  If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, the most in bonus you can get is 1.2% of your wager, which will not likely cover the house edge since you contribute 1% of that bonus.  If the pot is 800k and top bet is 100k, it's a game worth playing as the possible bonus is 8%.
2. For games worth playing (see 1), cash out as soon as you are in the bonus money.  As the game progresses, if the total wagered amount players above you plus your own wager is smaller than the largest bet, that means you are in the money for full bonus, and should cash out immediately.  Example: You bet 15k. Max bet in pot is 50k.  Game progressed to point where 3 players with 500, 10k, 20k other than you have not cashed out.  Cash out immediately since you are in the money for bonus and staying longer does not increase your EV.
3. Take into account that for +EV, your extra bonuses won will need to cover your losing games as well.  Not easy.

In the old days when max wager was set at 100k, there were easily games which had 8%-10% bonus.  Good times no more.  Way she goes. 

[scottybweyy]

This game has been fun but is confusing. I'm hoping someone can answer the following questions.

1. What is an example where no one collects a bonus and it carried over to next game?
2. The strategy guide states the house expected return is "1% * playersInGame * tableAmount". I'm confused why the number of players in the game matters for the House_EV? Can someone elaborate/clarify?
3. In the FAQ, a 2nd house EV formula is listed as "1 % * (intendedCashOut - roomAmount) * (roomAmount / intendedCashOut)". Why are there 2 House_EV formulas?
4. In the chat, it was stated the the multiplier is calculated by using a random number from 0 to 1 in the formula m(r)=(99+r)/(100*r). Is this true?
5. Using the below variables, how would you represent Player EV ignoring the bonus profit?

P_EV = Player EV
r_AW = roomAmountWagered
p_AW = playerAmountWagered
p_M = playerMultiplier

P_EV =

1. I believe all bonuses are paid out for each game.  If there is leftover after cashed out players are paid, the uncashed out players will be paid.  0x does not pay bonus but 1x does.
2 and 3 I cannot answer as I have not looked at the code nor am I qualified to calculate
4. The multiplier is 1/(1-rand()), subsequently adjusted for 1% house edge
5. see 2 and 3.

If you are looking to play +EV...

Thank you for your responses. I understand how to play profitably. I'm just trying to optimize.

[jaysabi]

1. I believe all bonuses are paid out for each game.  If there is leftover after cashed out players are paid, the uncashed out players will be paid.  0x does not pay bonus but 1x does.

Oh, is there a difference between 0x and 1x crashes? I was under the impression it was the same thing and used interchangeably.

[scottybweyy]

1. I believe all bonuses are paid out for each game.  If there is leftover after cashed out players are paid, the uncashed out players will be paid.  0x does not pay bonus but 1x does.

Oh, is there a difference between 0x and 1x crashes? I was under the impression it was the same thing and used interchangeably.

Again we'll wait for Eric to chime in.

I think 0x is the approximation for him to fund bonus pool. 1x is possible when the random number is ~0.995 or higher due to m(r) formula.

[scottybweyy]

5. Using the below variables, how would you represent Player EV ignoring the bonus profit?

try: https://www.moneypot.com/calculator

If you ignore bonuses, you will lose between 0 and 1%

Thank you! My only other question is to clarify the equations your calculator uses.

Can you use 25,000 wager with 1.21x multiplier, plug it into a formula and show me how the calculator gives the player a 81.675% probability of winning. Also plug it into equations that show House Expected Return of 45.8125 and House Margin of 0.18325%?

[dooglus]

1. Look for games where the top bet is not disproportional compared to overall pot.  If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, the most in bonus you can get is 1.2% of your wager, which will not likely cover the house edge since you contribute 1% of that bonus.

I'm not sure.

Are you including your own bet with that?

If the top bet is 100k, you should bet 100k too, meaning you get a little over 2% of the pot if you cash out just after the other 100k player.

I think it's optimal to match the highest bet.

[cowbay]

1. Look for games where the top bet is not disproportional compared to overall pot.  If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, the most in bonus you can get is 1.2% of your wager, which will not likely cover the house edge since you contribute 1% of that bonus.

I'm not sure.

Are you including your own bet with that?

If the top bet is 100k, you should bet 100k too, meaning you get a little over 2% of the pot if you cash out just after the other 100k player.

I think it's optimal to match the highest bet.

If pot is 120k and top bet is 100k, that means my own bet is included.  "Pot" is entire bet pool.

I agree that if bankroll is not an issue, matching largest bet is optimal or at least close to it.  In some situations it might be the difference between max bet and sum of remaining wagers, but I'm not sure.  e.g., whale bets 1M, 5 other players bet total of 700K, a bet of 300K might be better than 1M, since you only have to beat the whale to "cash" in the bonus.

More than often that is not the case, and for those smaller bankrolls playing against whales it is important to know that in many situations it simply cannot be +ev.

[Dondie]

Are you planning for another sig campaign soon?

[arvindr]

Are you planning for another sig campaign soon?

There is already one sig campaign going on right now. Since the site is going to be auctioned off, I doubt there will be another sig campaign by the current owner.

[banklunjo]

can i have some to try?

iD: banklunjo

[scottybweyy]

Does anyone know the new webhost being used? Also if anyone can do the calculations and show their work I'd be thankful. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=709185.msg9193154#msg9193154

[dooglus]

Also if anyone can do the calculations and show their work I'd be thankful.

Can you use 25,000 wager with 1.21x multiplier, plug it into a formula and show me how the calculator gives the player a 81.675% probability of winning. Also plug it into equations that show House Expected Return of 45.8125 and House Margin of 0.18325%?

Here's how the calculator gets the numbers it displays:

>>> winProb = 0.99 * 0.99 / (1.21-0.01)
>>> winProb
0.81675

>>> expRet = 0.01 * 25000 - winProb * (0.01 * 25000 + 25000 * (1.21 - 1)) + (0.99 - winProb) * 25000*0.99
>>> expRet
45.8125

>>> margin = 100 * expRet / 25000
>>> margin
0.18325

The expected return is found like this:

Code:

        houseExpectedReturn: function(amount, cashOut) {

             var p1,p2,p3;
             var v1,v2,v3;

             // Instant crash.
             p1 = 0.01;
             v1 = amount;

             // Player win.
             p2 = this.winProb(amount,cashOut);
             v2 = - 0.01 * amount - this.profit(amount,cashOut);

             // Player loss.
             p3 = 1 - p1 - p2;
             v3 = 0.99 * amount;

             // Expected value.
             return p1 * v1 + p2 * v2 + p3 * v3;
        }

I'm not convinced it's right, because it's not clear how to say that what part of the bonus pool you expect to get if you win or lose. I think I would prefer to see the calculator ignore the bonus completely, since it's almost a zero sum game.

99 times out of a hundred the game pays out an extra 1% as bonus prizes, and the other 1 time it keeps all the bets.

Suppose every round had a total of 100 bits bet. 99 rounds in a hundred will pay 1 bit in bonuses, and the other round will keep all 100 bits.