what should I do, I invested a lot

[Chuckee]

At a minimum I'd say there is a 90% chance we'll see $830 or more in 6-8 months.

[Razick]

At a minimum I'd say there is a 90% chance we'll see $830 or more in 6-8 months.

Okay, I'm listening.  

EDIT: If your face palm is because you think I'm being ridiculously specific, you are right if you choose to read it that way. All I'm trying to say is that the OP will likely recover his investment if he waits it out. $830 is his investment, and 6-8 months is my educated guess for how long the price might take to recover.

[Chuckee]

EDIT: If your face palm is because you think I'm being ridiculously specific, you are right if you choose to read it that way. All I'm trying to say is that the OP will likely recover his investment if he waits it out. $830 is his investment, and 6-8 months is my educated guess for how long the price might take to recover.

I just think 90% is a little optimistic, that's all. All the hodlers here seem to have an unshakable faith that price will rise again dramatically, but nobody can seem to articulate why so many who have been burned by bitcoin is 2014 would be willing to jump back into the fire again.

[MichaelBliss]

The hodlers know that bitcoin will either succeed, or it will fail.  If it succeeds, and it's adopted the same way other communications technologies like mp3 players, cell phones, the internet etc have been, it's going to astronomical prices in today's terms.   But if it fails, they're worth 0.    IMO the price today is more of a reflection of the markets expectation of it's long term success, than the current "value" of a bitcoin.   Then there's the day traders and the panicky weak hands, and people manipulating the price.   The long view is less stressful IMO.   I actually suspect the price will shoot up past $600 very soon, and that the prices now are a steal! 

[Razick]

EDIT: If your face palm is because you think I'm being ridiculously specific, you are right if you choose to read it that way. All I'm trying to say is that the OP will likely recover his investment if he waits it out. $830 is his investment, and 6-8 months is my educated guess for how long the price might take to recover.

I just think 90% is a little optimistic, that's all. All the hodlers here seem to have an unshakable faith that price will rise again dramatically, but nobody can seem to articulate why so many who have been burned by bitcoin is 2014 would be willing to jump back into the fire again.

You are right there. I guess the way I feel is that unless Bitcoin fails it will likely go back up. 10% is my guess for the odds of something catastrophic (total or near failure of bitcoin) happening. So yeah, 90% is a bit of an exaggeration now that I think about it. But I'd feel comfortable with 70%.

If you look at the 2013 bubble and compare the charts of a few months down the line with right now, you'll see that what's going on now looks an awful lot like what happened when the price dropped into the $60s for a couple weeks and then recovered. I think that's where we are now.

Honestly, I think that most of the reason for the current price drop is just people like me buying less than they otherwise would in anticipation of lower prices. Once the market feels like we are at the bottom, bulls will start buying in and we'll have a solid foundation for growth.

The hodlers know that bitcoin will either succeed, or it will fail.  If it succeeds, and it's adopted the same way other communications technologies like mp3 players, cell phones, the internet etc have been, it's going to astronomical prices in today's terms.   But if it fails, they're worth 0.    IMO the price today is more of a reflection of the markets expectation of it's long term success, than the current "value" of a bitcoin.   Then there's the day traders and the panicky weak hands, and people manipulating the price.   The long view is less stressful IMO.   I actually suspect the price will shoot up past $600 very soon, and that the prices now are a steal! 

I agree here. My view is that as long as I only invest what I'm willing to lose (not that I'd be happy) the potential rewards far exceed the potential risks.

[MichaelBliss]

I agree here. My view is that as long as I only invest what I'm willing to lose (not that I'd be happy) the potential rewards far exceed the potential risks.

Without a doubt!   One of the greatest tragedies of the Bitcoin story is how the media cheated millions of people out of fortunes by warning them of the "volatility" and discouraging them from buying bitcoin.  They *should* have been telling everyone to put what they can afford to lose into and wait a few years.  Even $5 could have changed peoples lives...

Now it's more likely to succeed, so the price is higher.

[Odalv]

i pray God things are as you say. I hold on so far but now things are getting serious. Months passed and I have only lost money. My idea at the beginning was optimistic, I said, in late 2013 it went down, in 2014 it will, it has to rise again, as usual. But so far, I was wrong.
I can tell you, I invested more than 80% of all I had. If my parents knew that... I would be in serious trouble. Part of it was their present for my 18 years and for my university studies.

 
I have been in and out, going short and going long in Bitcoin and since 2014, have been losing money big time. Finally, I decided to bite the bullet and try and swallow the buy and hold pill for several weeks whilst I worked offshore, just as all my merry chums on this forum suggested that I should do.

I bought at $620 about 6 weeks ago. Refusing to take another single hit whilst Bitcoin bobbed around sub $600, I held. Afterall, Buy and hold is a tactic! As the baseline of the descending triangle was broken through, I decided to sell at $545. Bitstamp website fucked up my sell order however, so I took it as a 'sign', that I should hold. But the dumps kept on coming so I market sold at $535, cementing another $1500+ loss.

Perhaps my purest experiment in 'buy n hold' is with Litecoin. I initially bought at $11, sold at $41. Then with my profits, I bought at $37 and have held ever since. Litecoin is now worth 10* less than what I ploughed into it. I never intended to deploy a 'buy n hold' strategy with Litecoin, I just didn't care about it for some fucking mysterious reason. That will be another $1500 I can add to my 2014 crypto losses. A similar story can be told with Quark, except that Quark was a pure loss as I never made any profit in Quark ever and bought at 50% level from the very top in Dec 2013.

My suspicion is that we have had our crypto craze and now all the wild exuberant hype that has been factored into the price, will be steadily deflated from the market as speculators start to realise that the mania has died down, resulting in bounces that repeatedly fail to turn the bear trend technicals on their heads, resulting in increasing volumes of investment capital leaving Bitcoin, resulting in it being increasingly harder for investors to take profit out of the market, resulting in ever more capital leaving the market, resulting in steadily declining prices. As an example, I have gradually went from swishing ~$25K around in Bitcoin, to having finally withdrawn my last $7K (I never lost $18K, but have been winding down exposure gradually, in addition to losing probably around $5K-$7K) from Bitstamp back to the safety of my bank account. I now represent $0 of the Bitcoin market. As the recessive nature of the Bitcoin market ensures that there increasingly more losers than winners, there will be more and more people like me with my psychological stance towards Bitcoin, both with deep pockets as well as with shallow pockets.

If you follow Elliot Wave theory, and believe that we are in a Primary corrective Wave 4 at the moment, then Bitcoin is projected to hit $200 range sometime between now and Dec 2014. It might not do this. Perhaps some world event that somehow causes a panic flight into Bitcoin or some fairy godfather multi billion dollar hedge fund will start piling into Bitcoin with purchases on all the big exchanges. But this is the sort of thing that will be required to truly turn the inevitable and time tested post bubble market sentiment around.

If you can bare it, I would suggest that Bitcoin definitely has a future beyond this corrective Wave 4 which I believe we are in. It is up to you to decide upon what you think is the logical state of market sentiment right now.

Even amongst the most rampant bulls on this site, I am seeing signs of self delusion. I refer specifically to rpteilia's 'calling the bottom' thread (the bottom was $500). I read that and though to myself "this guy is shitting himself".

Another good example would be Ibian (net bagholder since $800) who upon hearing of the Bitcoin ETF that is to start trading out of the Channel Islands from Sept 2014, stated (and I paraphrase);
"oh man, this sucks, Bitcoin is away to take off man and I can't get any fresh funds to the exchange man and this means that I am going to totally miss out on the price explosion that is definitely going to happen man!"
That should have been a warning sign for me to sell at a small loss, but I never acted and suffered a large loss.

As for bottoms, I would suggest that the big hammer bar on the 4hr chart that took as down to $440 is as good as a reversal sign as you are going to get. Watch Bitcoin closely. I suspect it could get up to around $520 before bounce momentum runs out. Perhaps higher, who knows. If your outlook is bearish, then you shouldn't have any problems recognising when the momentum is about to run out on the retest of whatever 'high' it produces in the first instance. Look for negative divergences in peaks on RSI, OBV, etc on 4hr chart.

Dear MatTheCat

 in zero sum game, one's losses are other people gains. So if you have more friends, please help them in investing. I love your trading advices. The more traders like you, the more gains for others.

Keep (re)tarding
Odalv.

[MatTheCat]

thus is scary but true. I will hold, even if I am not sure, as others seem, that bitcoin will rise again. Bitcoin could have been a fashion, a bubble like all other bubbles in history since 1600. Anyway I have taken my decision. If I was going to sell now I would lose 40% of my investment and it is way to much.
Anyway, thanks everyone because when you are losing thousands euros, big part of your savings, in a single week worst thing is to feel alone. You gave me hope. Maybe I am wrong again but I have  took my decision. I don't need that money to live so I will wait.
Greetings from Italy..

Don't be mad.

Treat the market as though you were approaching it fresh at all times. I am watching the action Bitcoin is looking very weak. That 'bounce I was anticipating looks like it aint no bounce at all with momentum already having petered out. If I had Bitcoin, I would sell them right now at $470. If you want buy back at a lower price. Infact, I would not be half surprised if you could almost double your BTC balance between now and Dec 2014, in two well timed traded. A sell, and then a buy in $200s. Think Bitcoin can't go to $200? This time last year Bitcoin cost only half of that amount. If it does go to $200, then bull-tards on here will be hailing Bitcoin for it's 100% gains within the year!.......seriously, some here will......JimboToronto being a class example.


Jimbo Toronto, yesterday.

Despite having already crashed a lot, Bitcoin right now is looking like fucking shit. Just think of how wildly over hyped and over inflated Bitcoin was based on around 5% of all coins being traded on market, the rest being hoarded, and the China factor (knocked on the head as far as widespread adoption there is concerned) and also hooky ramping bots on Gox. Bitcoin will not die, but all the hot air must be deflated out of the market before Bitcoin can find sustainable level from which it can finally begin to serve the purpose it was intended for and then grow from there.

Right now at this moment in time, Bitcoin is looking like fucking shit.

Dear MatTheCat

 in zero sum game, one's losses are other people gains. So if you have more friends, please help them in investing. I love your trading advices. The more traders like you, the more gains for others.

Keep (re)tarding
Odalv.

Sorry Odalv.

But in a bear market phase of a zero sum game, the odds are stacked too heavily against day-tarders like me. Nope, I think I shall keep myself well and truly out of this cut-throat 'until the last man standing' knife fight. The more Bitcoin crashes, the bloodier and the game gets.....best left to the Pros like yourself eh?

P.S. From November onwards, I found tarding Bitcoin very easy. I suspect the rule is that trading impulse wave = easy, but get the fuck out during corrective wave. Valuable lesson I have learned from tarding Bitcoin.

[cinnamon_carter]

simple,

sit back , relax , enjoy the ride,

it may take a while,

don't worry about btc until difficulty starts dropping like a rock

as long as the network is running like it is now,  even if difficulty does not continue to go up (i suspect it will continue to rise)

it is bulletproof,

[Chuckee]

thus is scary but true. I will hold, even if I am not sure, as others seem, that bitcoin will rise again. Bitcoin could have been a fashion, a bubble like all other bubbles in history since 1600. Anyway I have taken my decision. If I was going to sell now I would lose 40% of my investment and it is way to much.
Anyway, thanks everyone because when you are losing thousands euros, big part of your savings, in a single week worst thing is to feel alone. You gave me hope. Maybe I am wrong again but I have  took my decision. I don't need that money to live so I will wait.
Greetings from Italy..

Don't be mad.

Treat the market as though you were approaching it fresh at all times. I am watching the action Bitcoin is looking very weak. That 'bounce I was anticipating looks like it aint no bounce at all with momentum already having petered out. If I had Bitcoin, I would sell them right now at $470. If you want buy back at a lower price. Infact, I would not be half surprised if you could almost double your BTC balance between now and Dec 2014, in two well timed traded. A sell, and then a buy in $200s. Think Bitcoin can't go to $200? This time last year Bitcoin cost only half of that amount. If it does go to $200, then bull-tards on here will be hailing Bitcoin for it's 100% gains within the year!.......seriously, some here will......JimboToronto being a class example.


Jimbo Toronto, yesterday.

Despite having already crashed a lot, Bitcoin right now is looking like fucking shit. Just think of how wildly over hyped and over inflated Bitcoin was based on around 5% of all coins being traded on market, the rest being hoarded, and the China factor (knocked on the head as far as widespread adoption there is concerned) and also hooky ramping bots on Gox. Bitcoin will not die, but all the hot air must be deflated out of the market before Bitcoin can find sustainable level from which it can finally begin to serve the purpose it was intended for and then grow from there.

Right now at this moment in time, Bitcoin is looking like fucking shit.

Dear MatTheCat

 in zero sum game, one's losses are other people gains. So if you have more friends, please help them in investing. I love your trading advices. The more traders like you, the more gains for others.

Keep (re)tarding
Odalv.

Sorry Odalv.

But in a bear market phase of a zero sum game, the odds are stacked too heavily against day-tarders like me. Nope, I think I shall keep myself well and truly out of this cut-throat 'until the last man standing' knife fight. The more Bitcoin crashes, the bloodier and the game gets.....best left to the Pros like yourself eh?

P.S. From November onwards, I found tarding Bitcoin very easy. I suspect the rule is that trading impulse wave = easy, but get the fuck out during corrective wave. Valuable lesson I have learned from tarding Bitcoin.

Very wise man, MatTheCat. Bitcoin is indeed looking like fucking shit right now, but bull-tards will never listen and will ride the "indestructible" Titanic down to the sea bed. Life boats are on deck being loaded as we speak, hold-tards I ask you, would you like to come onboard or wait it out in your cabins?

[wasserman99]

I agree here. My view is that as long as I only invest what I'm willing to lose (not that I'd be happy) the potential rewards far exceed the potential risks.

Without a doubt!   One of the greatest tragedies of the Bitcoin story is how the media cheated millions of people out of fortunes by warning them of the "volatility" and discouraging them from buying bitcoin.  They *should* have been telling everyone to put what they can afford to lose into and wait a few years.  Even $5 could have changed peoples lives...

Now it's more likely to succeed, so the price is higher.

It is not the media's job to provide investment advice. It is the media's job to report facts which that have for the most part done over the lifetime of bitcoin. The only "time" when the media does not report facts about bitcoin accurately is when it is trying to describe something too technical for it's audience to understand.

Also generally speaking, interest in bitcoin has increased following the MSM reporting on bitcoin and it's volatility as there are many people who want to take risks.

[MichaelBliss]

I agree here. My view is that as long as I only invest what I'm willing to lose (not that I'd be happy) the potential rewards far exceed the potential risks.

Without a doubt!   One of the greatest tragedies of the Bitcoin story is how the media cheated millions of people out of fortunes by warning them of the "volatility" and discouraging them from buying bitcoin.  They *should* have been telling everyone to put what they can afford to lose into and wait a few years.  Even $5 could have changed peoples lives...

Now it's more likely to succeed, so the price is higher.

It is not the media's job to provide investment advice. It is the media's job to report facts which that have for the most part done over the lifetime of bitcoin. The only "time" when the media does not report facts about bitcoin accurately is when it is trying to describe something too technical for it's audience to understand.

Also generally speaking, interest in bitcoin has increased following the MSM reporting on bitcoin and it's volatility as there are many people who want to take risks.

No, it's been shown that the media coverage follows the price not vice versa.  Your right about it not being their job to provide advice, which is why the constant advice to NOT buy bitcoin was revealing of bias.

[falllling]

Tell your family you're a failure who lost all this money on magic internet shit, then kill your kids, your wife, and then finally yourself to ensure the cycle of stupidity ends with your line.

This guy gets it Listen to him, OP!

- Technology is sound and uncrackable.

It's not:
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/16/how-a-mining-monopoly-can-attack-bitcoin/

goxed
51% pool (easy came easy gone easy return)
crackers and governments and shit having 1200k coins(mtgox 200k, Ross Ulbricht 140k, crackers: 850k)
no new money
governments warning and banning
scam IPOs many including Ethereum and others
everyone is selling / spending
Dell / Expedia / Newegg / House dealer / etc are selling in real time
etc..

[nuff]

My advice is sell when the price is above $1000. It will get there, just hang on till next year.

[the joint]

Tell your family you're a failure who lost all this money on magic internet shit, then kill your kids, your wife, and then finally yourself to ensure the cycle of stupidity ends with your line.

This guy gets it Listen to him, OP!

- Technology is sound and uncrackable.

It's not:
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/16/how-a-mining-monopoly-can-attack-bitcoin/

goxed
51% pool (easy came easy gone easy return)
crackers and governments and shit having 1200k coins(mtgox 200k, Ross Ulbricht 140k, crackers: 850k)
no new money
governments warning and banning
scam IPOs many including Ethereum and others
everyone is selling / spending
Dell / Expedia / Newegg / House dealer / etc are selling in real time
etc..

To be fair, none of that has to do with "cracking" the technology.  For example, there must *always* be a mining monopoly (edit: by this I mean a majority, i.e. a monopoly held by 'good' miners), and I'm pretty sure governments seeking greater control over ideas and technologies isn't unique to Bitcoin.  Spending and selling are also pretty awesome because this simply translates into liquidity (and every sale has a buyer), though there are bound to be issues if exosystemic input can't match the output, i.e. fiat money going into the crypto market vastly differs from the amount exiting it.   The current inflation doesn't help in this regard.

Bitcoin is still an infant and it's trying to leverage itself on a global scale and adapt on the fly to the demands and needs of both citizens and governments in like 190 countries.  It's pretty hard not to acknowledge some remarkable resiliency and growth.  Although, on the other hand its infancy of course makes it prone to instability and -- quite frankly -- death due to being such a small market in a huge playing field.

[TaunSew]

The joke is on the OP - many of the Bitcoin $Fiat millionaires were guys who CPU mined for essentially free or they chucked in $5-$30 lunch money equivalent in 2009.

You can go in big on Bitcoin and risk being like the OP and baghold.  Or you can research the 500 alternates to Bitcoin, decide on the winners and diversify $10 - $1000 (your budget varies) on each one and wait 5 years.

[dE_logics]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=745710

[tss]

just sell it all. it wont bother you any.

[nuff]

The joke is on the OP - many of the Bitcoin $Fiat millionaires were guys who CPU mined for essentially free or they chucked in $5-$30 lunch money equivalent in 2009.

You can go in big on Bitcoin and risk being like the OP and baghold.  Or you can research the 500 alternates to Bitcoin, decide on the winners and diversify $10 - $1000 (your budget varies) on each one and wait 5 years.

There're really no Bitcoin alternatives. In cryptocurrency, the first mover is the be all end all. The price of altcoins are all based on Bitcoin, and that pretty much says it all.

[FattyMcButterpants]

hi, I invested a lot at the beginning of this year thinking bitcoin would have risen again as usual, I bought many btc when it was 830 and some after when it was 660. I waited for the pump but things are getting bad. I am wo4ried. I am 26 yo I am not rich and I invested a lot of my savings. I can live without, ok, but they were my savings. What should I do now? is this the end? Will bitcoin rise again at least until 830?

bolded for emphasis for those who say that "support and resistance is bullshit" hehe.

OP, sorry for your position. commonly held belief around here is that these here bitcorns are gonna be worth millions of dollars someday, so you got nothin to worry about!