what should I do, I invested a lot

[JimboToronto]

First of all, you didn't "invest", you speculated.

Investing entails putting your money (hard-earned or otherwise) into something over which you have some control.

No, FUD-spamming internet forums doesn't count as having some control.

As somebody pointed out earlier, you haven't lost anything at all until you sell for less than you paid.  Your coins are worth exactly what you paid for them.

My coins are still only worth an average of $120 each. If I'd sold when the price dipped to $50 last summer, and people were clamoring about the coming capitulation that would take us sub-$30 and "no more triple digits in 2013", then I'd have lost money. but I didn't and the price soared to quadruple digits. If I'd sold then, I'd have made a handsome profit. I didn't so my coins are still only worth $120 per.

You can't assume that history will repeat itself but Bitcoin has never gone 2 years without realizing a massive price increase. The protocol is not broken. Venture capital keeps pouring in and infrastructure keeps being built.

My advice is to be patient and wait at least 2 years before doing anything except perhaps buying more. Don't be like one of those suckers who was talked into selling for less than $100 last summer by those preaching their own book, or those who sold for less than $5 in autumn of 2011.

[the joint]

First of all, you didn't "invest", you speculated.

Investing entails putting your money (hard-earned or otherwise) into something over which you have some control.

No, FUD-spamming internet forums doesn't count as having some control.

As somebody pointed out earlier, you haven't lost anything at all until you sell for less than you paid.  Your coins are worth exactly what you paid for them.

My coins are still only worth an average of $120 each. If I'd sold when the price dipped to $50 last summer, and people were clamoring about the coming capitulation that would take us sub-$30 and "no more triple digits in 2013", then I'd have lost money. but I didn't and the price soared to quadruple digits. If I'd sold then, I'd have made a handsome profit. I didn't so my coins are still only worth $120 per.

You can't assume that history will repeat itself but Bitcoin has never gone 2 years without realizing a massive price increase. The protocol is not broken. Venture capital keeps pouring in and infrastructure keeps being built.

My advice is to be patient and wait at least 2 years before doing anything except perhaps buying more. Don't be like one of those suckers who was talked into selling for less than $100 last summer by those preaching their own book, or those who sold for less than $5 in autumn of 2011.

It's false to say that someone hasn't lost anything if they're holding onto depreciating assets.  No, those coins are *not* currently worth the price he paid for them.  To see this, simply view your assets in terms of purchasing power.  The purchasing power of the coins he bought has decreased, so yes, he has incurred losses.

[falllling]

First of all, you didn't "invest", you speculated.

Investing entails putting your money (hard-earned or otherwise) into something over which you have some control.

No, FUD-spamming internet forums doesn't count as having some control.

As somebody pointed out earlier, you haven't lost anything at all until you sell for less than you paid.  Your coins are worth exactly what you paid for them.

My coins are still only worth an average of $120 each. If I'd sold when the price dipped to $50 last summer, and people were clamoring about the coming capitulation that would take us sub-$30 and "no more triple digits in 2013", then I'd have lost money. but I didn't and the price soared to quadruple digits. If I'd sold then, I'd have made a handsome profit. I didn't so my coins are still only worth $120 per.

You can't assume that history will repeat itself but Bitcoin has never gone 2 years without realizing a massive price increase. The protocol is not broken. Venture capital keeps pouring in and infrastructure keeps being built.

My advice is to be patient and wait at least 2 years before doing anything except perhaps buying more. Don't be like one of those suckers who was talked into selling for less than $100 last summer by those preaching their own book, or those who sold for less than $5 in autumn of 2011.

It's false to say that someone hasn't lost anything if they're holding onto depreciating assets.  No, those coins are *not* currently worth the price he paid for them.  To see this, simply view your assets in terms of purchasing power.  The purchasing power of the coins he bought has decreased, so yes, he has incurred losses.

agreed

[MichaelBliss]

Read this thread, perhaps you'll feel better about people panicking:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58634.0

So many threads like this here.  So many people panicking and missing out on changing their lives!   Stop obsessing about the price and chill!  It will be all right... or it will be 0.    Deal with it. 

[Junkbarman]

So when the price goes back up, they get them to buy back in because things are looking good for Bitcoin again? Genius.  

Nope, because that would not be standard investment advice. It would break the portfolio diversification rule.
Do you remember your granny telling you "Don't put all of your eggs in the same basket"?
That stands whether your investments have gone up, down or sideways.

Grandma always said "Math my boy, that's where the moneys at". Never once did she say the things you're saying.

She wouldn't believe it for a second, and probably would call you out on your terrible advice and bad portrayal of a financial advisor. Telling your clients to sell after they've had loses? Interesting theory, but terrible advice.

Because if you really had a mind, you'd tell them to buy more. It's simple math really.

You bought at 8, its now at 5. So when it goes back to 650,you've cut you losses in half. But lets try your way. buy at 8, sell at 5. buy something else at 8 and sell at 5...hmm. Doesn't seem quite right.

But I guess you need people like that to keep doing what you're doing.

I'm confused.  How does "simple" math in any way indicate that you should buy more after falling from $800 to $500?  There's nothing about math that will tell you what the price will be in the future.  When you say things like "when it goes back to $650..." you're making the assumption that it's guaranteed to go up.  It's not.

Whether we're talking BTC or some other investment, cutting your losses can save you from losing everything.  It sounds that, based on what I just read, there is no good time to ever sell.  If the prices goes up, buy or just hold, and if the price drops buy more!

Under what circumstance would you, as a hypothetical financial advisor, advise someone to sell their investment?

To answer you question, simply, where there's 0 chance of making that money back. He bought at a bad time, this is a bad time to sell. If he was really worried, he would have sold back in April. You don't ever sell when the market crashed.

[Ayers]

now you should hold even more, if you don't want to lose your money

[600watt]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that put my house savings plan fully into it. (it was sitting there for several years, nowhere enough to buy a house in the area i live and it paid 1% interest p.a.). i waited until after the peak of april 13 and shoved it all in at 130 . guess what happened: price went down again. it literally started to drop only an hour after my biggest purchase. hell, i did not expect that. it went down... i think it went as far down as 68.    i had fucked up - almost 50% loss.
i guess you know how this story continued.

if i recall how thin the news coverage, how small the vc money that poured in, how non-existent the infrastructure was - all compared to now - it makes me wonder why i was so enthusiastic.

i think you made the right decision.

[MichaelBliss]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that put my house savings plan fully into it. (it was sitting there for several years, nowhere enough to buy a house in the area i live and it paid 1% interest p.a.). i waited until after the peak of april 13 and shoved it all in at 130 . guess what happened: price went down again. it literally started to drop only an hour after my biggest purchase. hell, i did not expect that. it went down... i think it went as far down as 68.    i had fucked up - almost 50% loss.
i guess you know how this story continued.

if i recall how thin the news coverage, how small the vc money that poured in, how non-existent the infrastructure was - all compared to now - it makes me wonder why i was so enthusiastic.

i think you made the right decision.

Did you panic and sell when it dropped like that?

[cr1776]

Read this thread, perhaps you'll feel better about people panicking:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58634.0

So many threads like this here.  So many people panicking and missing out on changing their lives!   Stop obsessing about the price and chill!  It will be all right... or it will be 0.    Deal with it. 

Exactly.  It will either do really well or it won't. 

The technology and uses are great and could be game changing.  If the game changes, the fiat value will increase greatly, but the key is that it is useful, regardless of the fiat price.

In the last almost 4 years, one hears the same thing - "it is crashing from $30" or "it is crashing from $3" or "it is crashing from $1, we won't ever see dollar parity again".

:-)

[nuff]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that put my house savings plan fully into it. (it was sitting there for several years, nowhere enough to buy a house in the area i live and it paid 1% interest p.a.). i waited until after the peak of april 13 and shoved it all in at 130 . guess what happened: price went down again. it literally started to drop only an hour after my biggest purchase. hell, i did not expect that. it went down... i think it went as far down as 68.    i had fucked up - almost 50% loss.
i guess you know how this story continued.

if i recall how thin the news coverage, how small the vc money that poured in, how non-existent the infrastructure was - all compared to now - it makes me wonder why i was so enthusiastic.

i think you made the right decision.

Thanks for sharing. Honestly I feel bad for taking your story to reinforce my belief that the value of bitcoin will ultimately rise because it's simple mathematics really, the less things are getting made the more valuable they become. Hope you didn't panic sell all your bitcoins and held some until end of 2013, you've made almost 10x profits

[the joint]

So when the price goes back up, they get them to buy back in because things are looking good for Bitcoin again? Genius.  

Nope, because that would not be standard investment advice. It would break the portfolio diversification rule.
Do you remember your granny telling you "Don't put all of your eggs in the same basket"?
That stands whether your investments have gone up, down or sideways.

Grandma always said "Math my boy, that's where the moneys at". Never once did she say the things you're saying.

She wouldn't believe it for a second, and probably would call you out on your terrible advice and bad portrayal of a financial advisor. Telling your clients to sell after they've had loses? Interesting theory, but terrible advice.

Because if you really had a mind, you'd tell them to buy more. It's simple math really.

You bought at 8, its now at 5. So when it goes back to 650,you've cut you losses in half. But lets try your way. buy at 8, sell at 5. buy something else at 8 and sell at 5...hmm. Doesn't seem quite right.

But I guess you need people like that to keep doing what you're doing.

I'm confused.  How does "simple" math in any way indicate that you should buy more after falling from $800 to $500?  There's nothing about math that will tell you what the price will be in the future.  When you say things like "when it goes back to $650..." you're making the assumption that it's guaranteed to go up.  It's not.

Whether we're talking BTC or some other investment, cutting your losses can save you from losing everything.  It sounds that, based on what I just read, there is no good time to ever sell.  If the prices goes up, buy or just hold, and if the price drops buy more!

Under what circumstance would you, as a hypothetical financial advisor, advise someone to sell their investment?

To answer you question, simply, where there's 0 chance of making that money back. He bought at a bad time, this is a bad time to sell. If he was really worried, he would have sold back in April. You don't ever sell when the market crashed.

The statements you're making not only require you to tell the future, but they also contradict themselves.

There is no formula that can calculate the odds of your investment's future performance.  Saying things like "zero chance" and "bad time to sell" are intuitive guesses at best.

Here's a serious question for you -- How do you reconcile your suggestion that you only sell when there is "zero chance" of ROI with your suggestion that you "don't ever sell" during a market crash?  I'm asking to help show you that these ideas contradict each other and are mutually exclusive.  Either you sell when there actually is zero chance of ROI and thus break your rule of not selling in a down market, or you sell in a neutral or up market and thus break your rule of selling when there is at least some chance of ROI.

My advice would be to not boast arrogantly as if the advice you're giving doesn't depend upon supernatural, wizardly abilities.

[TinEye]

Just hold on for now. If you sell now the loss will be actual. Take a break and stop looking at the prices.

[Impros88]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that put my house savings plan fully into it. (it was sitting there for several years, nowhere enough to buy a house in the area i live and it paid 1% interest p.a.). i waited until after the peak of april 13 and shoved it all in at 130 . guess what happened: price went down again. it literally started to drop only an hour after my biggest purchased ase. hell, i did not expect that. it went down... i think it went as far down as 68.    i had fucked up - almost 50% loss.
i guess you know how this story continued.

if i recall how thin the news coverage, how small the vc money that poured in, how non-existent the infrastructure was - all compared to now - it makes me wonder why i was so enthusiastic.

i think you made the right decision.

did you seriously invest your life savings, enough to but a house, in bitcoin? I am 26 and my life savings were about 6000 euros more or less. That is another story. So are you very rich right now?

[ravenjt]

Diversification merely decreases variance, but does not change expected return.  
Whether this is wise depends on how bad it would be to lose a lot of your money (which depends on stuff like how old you are, if you have kids, a stable job etc.).
Sometimes it's better not to have too many eggs in your basket so you can watch the eggs that you have closely enough (or avoid having to spend a disproportionate amount of time in a $100 "investment").

For sure it is a good default advice to follow, but it shouldn't always be the rule.

I agree, but the original poster clearly is not enjoying the variance. Clearly the variance is a huge concern to him.
If he's fretting this much over losing a bit under half the value, in purchasing power terms, then how would he feel if it fell to zero?
If he 'knew' that BTC is going to rise significantly, as many posters on here do, then sure he should stick with the one egg.
But he stated that he does not know the future price of BTC, which is critical here.
So diversifying, which decreases variance, is clearly the right strategy for him.

[600watt]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that put my house savings plan fully into it. (it was sitting there for several years, nowhere enough to buy a house in the area i live and it paid 1% interest)
(...)

i think you made the right decision.

did you seriously invest your life savings, enough to but a house, in bitcoin? I am 26 and my life savings were about 6000 euros more or less. That is another story. So are you very rich right now?

i was not able to fill up the house savings plan to an amount where i could nearly buy a house, so it was sitting there useless. it was indeed all i had. it was kind of risky. to me it felt like the once in a lifetime and very last chance to get out of the rat race. i am not rich now, i did not sell when it was over $ 1000 but i had to sell some part of my stash during 2014.  i wait for the run up after the very next run up - shall that ever happen i will retire and hail satoshi for the rest of my life...  

[600watt]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin that...
(...)
i think you made the right decision.

Did you panic and sell when it dropped like that?

no, i became fatalistic/stubborn and refused to eat the loss. but i have to admit that i did panic sell some btc during the silkroad flashcrash. worst decision ever, learned my lesson...

[600watt]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin ...
(...)

i think you made the right decision.

Thanks for sharing. Honestly I feel bad for taking your story to reinforce my belief that the value of bitcoin will ultimately rise because it's simple mathematics really, the less things are getting made the more valuable they become. Hope you didn't panic sell all your bitcoins and held some until end of 2013, you've made almost 10x profits

don't worry, i held almost all my stash. and yes, i WOULD have made 10x profits if i would have sold on top. hodlers hodl i guess...

edit: typo

[desired_username]

I waited for the pump

Haha, what an imbecile.

Sell at a loss and don't come back.

[nuff]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin ...
(...)

i think you made the right decision.

Thanks for sharing. Honestly I feel bad for taking your story to reinforce my belief that the value of bitcoin will ultimately rise because it's simple mathematics really, the less things are getting made the more valuable they become. Hope you didn't panic sell all your bitcoins and held some until end of 2013, you've made almost 10x profits

don't worry, i held almost all my stash. and yes, i WOULD have made 10x profits if i would have sold on top. hodlers hodl i guess...

edit: typo

I'm really glad you did. Sometimes we can get sucked in into all the negativity surrounding Bitcoin (no thanks to the forever bears) especially to those who are new into Bitcoin that it helps to know how things were back then and by keeping the faith it all comes out better than we can possibly imagine

[MichaelBliss]

i got so enthusiastic about bitcoin ...
(...)

i think you made the right decision.

Thanks for sharing. Honestly I feel bad for taking your story to reinforce my belief that the value of bitcoin will ultimately rise because it's simple mathematics really, the less things are getting made the more valuable they become. Hope you didn't panic sell all your bitcoins and held some until end of 2013, you've made almost 10x profits

don't worry, i held almost all my stash. and yes, i WOULD have made 10x profits if i would have sold on top. hodlers hodl i guess...

edit: typo

It sounds like you did pretty well under the circumstances.  You didn't panic (for the most part) and your still here to tell the story, which is the main lesson you have to teach I think.  I wouldn't worry about not picking the exact top.  Unless your the one manipulating the market, it's impossible to predict the top or bottom.