Why Do People Believe Bitcoin Will Replace Fiat?

[QuestionAuthority]

This thread isn't labeled what does QA want to happen. Change will happen whether I want it too or not.

Ok, I was thinking your account was either sold or you were cynical to the future. I suppose your dystopian vision is one possibility.

Call it whatever. If it's so upgradable then why aren't they doing it? There are a lot of flaws that are being ignored and you know it. (A dev, jgarzik, has to put out a torrent for the blockchain instead of pruning it. We haven't solved the 51% attack yet. And on and on) If I see more upgrading going on then maybe my view will change and I will be convinced.

Technology is being scaffolded all around the Bitcoin blockchain all the time. Some people criticize bitcoin for not solving all of the problems immediately or adding every new feature set within the core protocol but there are some great advantages of keeping bitcoin simple, reliable and modular and other features scaffolded upon bitcoin instead.

If we want adoption ahead of any competitors then the changes need to be made quickly or someone else will make them and be rewarded for the effort. This Brock Pierce guy TBF member came up with Realcoin because he sees a problem with Bitcoin adoption and wants a solution. I don't know if that's the right way to go but it's one way. Big business solves problems quickly because they have the money and resources to throw at problems. Big business and big money are becoming interested in Bitcoin. Will they decide to fix the problems or scrap the old and develop a new one? That's anyone's guess at this point.

[Beliathon]

[Rassah]

Call it whatever. If it's so upgradable then why aren't they doing it? There are a lot of flaws that are being ignored and you know it. (A dev, jgarzik, has to put out a torrent for the blockchain instead of pruning it. We haven't solved the 51% attack yet. And on and on) If I see more upgrading going on then maybe my view will change and I will be convinced.

Some of those problems aren't that serious yet, some are being worked on but aren't ready yet... They just announced a request for beta testers for the next version just a week or so ago. There's progress, it's just that compared to bitcoin world's extremely fast pace, once or twice a year doesn't seem that often for updates.

[Rassah]

So when non-fiat currencies are replaced, you don't think it has to be because the original currency has failed...

When the original something is replaced, that doesn't make that original something go away. We still have horses and buggies, faxes, gold coins, etc. It's just that we took the success of the previous idea and built on top of it. Failed would have been if horse and buggy system failed, we we didn't have any more of them because they all broke, and to fix the situation we started making more of them with the exact same flaws that the first ones broke from.

...but you don't seem to apply this logic to fiat currencies. It seems that by definition, any time they are replaced, it is because they have failed.

That's not what I said.

The main point is that it's like arguing for making 3 legged rectangular tables, having a bunch of them tip over, and then say that three legged tables aren't a failure, because some of them are still standing, and others were replaced with nicer tables. The point is that a three legged table is a failure of an invention; prone to failure; has a failed design. Sure we can keep trying to balance it, but it will still fail as soon as that balance is disturbed.

[inBitweTrust]

If we want adoption ahead of any competitors then the changes need to be made quickly or someone else will make them and be rewarded for the effort. This Brock Pierce guy TBF member came up with Realcoin because he sees a problem with Bitcoin adoption and wants a solution. I don't know if that's the right way to go but it's one way. Big business solves problems quickly because they have the money and resources to throw at problems. Big business and big money are becoming interested in Bitcoin. Will they decide to fix the problems or scrap the old and develop a new one? That's anyone's guess at this point.

It is pretty clear where businesses are primarily investing: Bitcoin. any businesses that decide to invest in Realcoin, stellar, or ripple will be investing in a protocol which lacks a critical feature which is driving adoption of Bitcoin: A steady store of value which cannot be manipulated directly by central planners or inflated. The flaw with Bitcoins volatility cited by Brock and Raison d'être of Realcoin is also Bitcoins strength. Initial volatility is necessary for the initial adoption and growth phase. If bitcoin was initially a stable unit of account during the formative years than their wouldn't be a massive investment to build and grow bitcoin as the early participants aren't incentivized as much.

[l3sny]

I like this remark about the volatility. As someone has said few years ago: lots of wealth will be destroyed and lots of wealth will be created (thorough bitcoin).

[QuestionAuthority]

If we want adoption ahead of any competitors then the changes need to be made quickly or someone else will make them and be rewarded for the effort. This Brock Pierce guy TBF member came up with Realcoin because he sees a problem with Bitcoin adoption and wants a solution. I don't know if that's the right way to go but it's one way. Big business solves problems quickly because they have the money and resources to throw at problems. Big business and big money are becoming interested in Bitcoin. Will they decide to fix the problems or scrap the old and develop a new one? That's anyone's guess at this point.

It is pretty clear where businesses are primarily investing: Bitcoin. any businesses that decide to invest in Realcoin, stellar, or ripple will be investing in a protocol which lacks a critical feature which is driving adoption of Bitcoin: A steady store of value which cannot be manipulated directly by central planners or inflated. The flaw with Bitcoins volatility cited by Brock and Raison d'être of Realcoin is also Bitcoins strength. Initial volatility is necessary so during the initial adoption and growth phase. If bitcoin was initially a stable unit of account during the formative years than their wouldn't be a massive investment to build and grow bitcoin as the early participants aren't incentivized as much.

I don't think it's initial instability and get rich mentality helped it as much as being associated with Silk Road and being this new edgy way to screw the government and do what you want right under their noses. That Gawker article did more for Bitcoin in a week then all the brainstorming at this forum could do in a year.

Even Bitcoins golden boy Patrick Byrne says that, "he favors competing currencies in theory and feels like they could truly compete with Bitcoin as long as they offer superior technical features. He then went on to acknowledge that the core Bitcoin code contains a lot of “slop,” which he speculated could cause potential logistical problems for Bitcoin in the future."

The future isn't set in stone. Hard work will be necessary for Bitcoin to maintain its lead position. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[murraypaul]

...but you don't seem to apply this logic to fiat currencies. It seems that by definition, any time they are replaced, it is because they have failed.

That's not what I said.

Well it is exactly what you said. You said that 100% of fiat currencies have failed:

Fiat currencies have a 100% failure rate

[l3sny]

Because they do. It is a fact of life. THe longest fiat in existense is American dollar as far as I know. And they all end up at 0 value in 20, 30, 40 or even 100, years. Technically of course because they leave the same name of the currency i.e. deutschemark, yen, drahma or whatever. With growing awareness of the population and adoption bitcoin is the winner.

[inBitweTrust]

He then went on to acknowledge that the core Bitcoin code contains a lot of “slop,” which he speculated could cause potential logistical problems for Bitcoin in the future."

The future isn't set in stone. Hard work will be necessary for Bitcoin to maintain its lead position. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Most code is riddled with slop, other alts are often worse than Bitcoin in this regard as well. Yes, more work needs to be done, but we don't need any mistakes to happen with a 7+ billion dollar market cap. We have enough problems as is with sociopaths like Mark K., regulators wanting to control Bitcoin,  and traditional banks with their negative PR campaign to start making mistakes in the protocol because users are anxious to see changes.

Let the alts test some of the new features and once vetted Bitcoin can roll that code into the core.

It is very unlikely that any alt will surpass Bitcoin at this stage in the game.

[DubFX]

I have a hard time following the logic when people make a statement that Bitcoin will replace all fiat currency.  In my world view, they coexist and will continue to coexist.  I can see where some fiat currencies die and Bitcoin fills in the gap, but not on a global level.  Your thoughts?

They will fill the gabs for sure, and maybe someday the will really replace fiat, as you can't print out as many bitcoins as you want and you can't make fake bitcoin bill.
It's all vertified by computers and the most important, it's open source (mostly) so nothing hidden at all.

[Rassah]

...but you don't seem to apply this logic to fiat currencies. It seems that by definition, any time they are replaced, it is because they have failed.

That's not what I said.

Well it is exactly what you said. You said that 100% of fiat currencies have failed:

Fiat currencies have a 100% failure rate

I guess my succinct catch phrase stands corrected. So, instead "100% of fiat currencies fail or get destroyed." Hope that's better.

[HELP.org]

I'm not even convinced that Bitcoin will be the survivor in the crypto coin wars. Most initial iterations of software are not the final useful form that becomes popular.

But bitcoin isn't software, it's a protocol. Open and upgradeable at that.

Bitcoin is both a protocol and a software program.  "Upgradeable" means breaking the consensus and a new consensus must be achieved.

[QuestionAuthority]

Call it whatever. If it's so upgradable then why aren't they doing it? There are a lot of flaws that are being ignored and you know it. (A dev, jgarzik, has to put out a torrent for the blockchain instead of pruning it. We haven't solved the 51% attack yet. And on and on) If I see more upgrading going on then maybe my view will change and I will be convinced.

Some of those problems aren't that serious yet, some are being worked on but aren't ready yet... They just announced a request for beta testers for the next version just a week or so ago. There's progress, it's just that compared to bitcoin world's extremely fast pace, once or twice a year doesn't seem that often for updates.

Tell me if this is one of the fixes that's about to be released or if it one of the not so serious ones.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=758927.0

I happen to think this is a pretty serious drawback for adoption.

[wasserman99]

I don't believe Bitcoin will be what replaces paper money and electronic government debt. I'm not even convinced that Bitcoin will be the survivor in the crypto coin wars. Most initial iterations of software are not the final useful form that becomes popular. 

The bitcoin protocol has evolved somewhat since it was originally released in 2009.

You could compare Bitcoin to Microsoft windows (disregarding the bugs, security holes and other drawbacks of windows). When windows was first released it was very different then it is today, it had much fewer features, however it has been very successful for microsoft and has really been the most popular operating system since it was released. 

[airpline1]

I have a hard time following the logic when people make a statement that Bitcoin will replace all fiat currency.  In my world view, they coexist and will continue to coexist.  I can see where some fiat currencies die and Bitcoin fills in the gap, but not on a global level.  Your thoughts?

Its most likely that they believe bitcoin is more 'safer' so no one can rob you and such, although I don't think it will ever replace fiat, fiat has been with us for Years, Centuries, and will be for eternity.
So Bitcoin replacing fiat? not happening anytime soon.

[Omikifuse]

I have a hard time following the logic when people make a statement that Bitcoin will replace all fiat currency.  In my world view, they coexist and will continue to coexist.  I can see where some fiat currencies die and Bitcoin fills in the gap, but not on a global level.  Your thoughts?

People too entusiasmed with Bitcoin and think everyone are like him. Also wishfull thinking about they getting billionaire just by hodling few BTC.

Most people don't use internet banking, and there are billions or so people without a bank account. Even internet and smartphones aren't global, I doubt cryptos will ever be really global one day.

[Rassah]

I'm not even convinced that Bitcoin will be the survivor in the crypto coin wars. Most initial iterations of software are not the final useful form that becomes popular.

But bitcoin isn't software, it's a protocol. Open and upgradeable at that.

Bitcoin is both a protocol and a software program.  "Upgradeable" means breaking the consensus and a new consensus must be achieved.

Easy to do, and was done at least once already. Just have the code be released as dormant in the new versions of bitcoin, have it track how many nodes have updraged, and  then switch on automatically once about 90% to 95% of the network has installed the version with the new code. Users won't even notice the switchover as it goes from an old style block to a new style block. P2Pool publishes upgrades to their systems this way all the time, and unless you know what is going on, you wouldn't even notice the hard forks, other than installing a new version once in a while.

[Rassah]

Tell me if this is one of the fixes that's about to be released or if it one of the not so serious ones.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=758927.0

I happen to think this is a pretty serious drawback for adoption.

That's just Hive. Bitcoin let's you chain transactions one after another. If they all have proper fees, they will all get accepted in the next block at the same time. Mycelium let's you do this without a problem. The only issues you might see is if you use LocalTrader's confidence graph it will not go past 50%, or if some wallet service tracks for unusual transactions (such as those with unconfirmed inputs) they may not accept your transaction until it is confirmed in a block (happened to me with BitPay, but my unconfirmed input was a single transaction sending 1mBTC to 30 wallets, with no fee, that took 30 hours to confirm).

[Rassah]

Most people don't use internet banking, and there are billions or so people without a bank account. Even internet and smartphones aren't global

This is exactly why many of us think bitcoin will grow so much. It doesn't need a bank account, and you can even use it with a dumbphone through SMS. So if most people don't have bank accounts or internet or smartphones, then bitcoin is the only option for most people.