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aminorex
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September 21, 2014, 07:02:57 PM
 #461

I see 51% as being very attainable here based on the pool info.  Where am I messing up at?

The probability of failure at each step accumulates multiplicatively.  Half the hash doesn't mean you are half as likely to succeed.  It means you are exponentially less likely to succeed.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 21, 2014, 07:03:03 PM
 #462

I let myself to uncover a little anonymint's research that we was privately discussed this evening: imo it's not critical, it's not about stealing money and it's not coin killer. it's about anonymity that could be compromised on very rare situations(with some specific conditions) and untypical for current transactions distribution(if could call it so).

BBR apparently thinks anonymity is not important because most txs don't use it?

Fracturedmind, you are surrounded by disrespect and enemies.  What more could you ask?



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ajaxgeorge
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September 21, 2014, 07:06:45 PM
 #463

I see 51% as being very attainable here based on the pool info.  Where am I messing up at?

The probability of failure at each step accumulates multiplicatively.  Half the hash doesn't mean you are half as likely to succeed.  It means you are exponentially less likely to succeed.

you are saying my numbers are right? 

but unlikely that he can perform a ddos attack and lower the hash rate.  and also unlikely he can achieve 12Mh/s hashrate for a sustained period even though he's worth at least 10's of millions?
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September 21, 2014, 07:08:40 PM
 #464

You expect to achieve a useful mathematical discussion in a troll thread?  It's pure drama here.  Seriously, get a grip.

Last time I'm going to say it.

Let's see if it is.

P.S. We don't want any of your kind in this neighborhood is not going to work.
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September 21, 2014, 07:08:48 PM
 #465


but unlikely that he can perform a ddos attack and lower the hash rate.  and also unlikely he can achieve 12Mh/s hashrate for a sustained period even though he's worth at least 10's of millions?

Oh, you're right!

What's the hashrate of a dollar, anyway?

Or is it that he is worth 10's of millions of pieces of used toilet paper?
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September 21, 2014, 07:10:20 PM
 #466

What's the hashrate of a dollar, anyway?

Millions and millions of human work power, nothing hashrate could ever achieve
TheFascistMind
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September 21, 2014, 07:10:28 PM
 #467

MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication

A taskforce is set up to address the issue of a possible "BCX exploit", and an ultimatum by BCX to find and fix it in 72 hours lest a serious attack is launched upon Monero.

The taskforce consists of several Monero developers, AnonyMint, CZ, jl777 and me.

There are differing opinions in the taskforce concerning the severity of the threat. No coinkiller is yet found and several avenues are probed. The members who have technical competence are talking about their views themselves.

Regardless of the outcome in the technical side, this is a serious economic attack on Monero - about 15% of the pre-ultimatum value is lost, and there is a great information asymmetry plaguing traders currently. It is notable that nobody has offered to borrow XMR for shorting (which I could provide against full guarantee deposit of BTC). Neither has anyone bought the PUT options. This means that the downside speculation has so far been limited to selling out from a trader's own stash. An economically motivated player who knows for sure about a lethal attack might decide to take leverage for personal gain.

I believe that the Monero devs are up to their task and can mitigate the potential exploit, and fix the code in preparation of the announced attack. I further believe that Monero will rise even stronger. Since I am not in possession of any knowledge that indicates that a realistic attack could take place, I can only estimate the probability that it exists unnoticed, and my estimate is 4-8%.

The MEW will be inaugurated on Tuesday, and also the devteam has important announcements (not related to the attack). Provided that our coin still exists, I am sure we have a great future ahead of us as a community with these new methods of organizing our activities for the mutual benefit.

His prior version of that which he sent to us in a PM stated that I had not discovered anything that smooth and fluffy had not already known. And that he trusts them more than me (and jl777). That irked me, because smooth knows I had not given him anything final and was in a mad rush to characterize and refine my understanding of ability to break the anonymity.

It irked me not only because he said that to us, but because apparently fluffy and or smooth rushed to tell him that "he found nothing", without giving me time to sleep, wake up and digest their whitepaper and finish refining my anonymity attack algorithm.

Couple that with the posts fluffy made as I awoke today, and I am sorry but I don't think these guys are respectful.

Doesn't feel right to me. I am doing sleep deprivation and they are busy dissing me behind my back.

Who is in charge? Sounds like fluffy and smooth are?
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September 21, 2014, 07:11:58 PM
 #468

What's the hashrate of a dollar, anyway?

Millions and millions of human work power, nothing hashrate could ever achieve

Yeah?! All that for $1 ?

Damn labor must be SUPER cheap in your neck of the woods!
aminorex
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September 21, 2014, 07:14:49 PM
 #469

I see 51% as being very attainable here based on the pool info.  Where am I messing up at?

The probability of failure at each step accumulates multiplicatively.  Half the hash doesn't mean you are half as likely to succeed.  It means you are exponentially less likely to succeed.

you are saying my numbers are right? 

but unlikely that he can perform a ddos attack and lower the hash rate.  and also unlikely he can achieve 12Mh/s hashrate for a sustained period even though he's worth at least 10's of millions?

I have no opinion about his resources, except that I think they are higher than you estimated.  I haven't done the math to provide a more useful estimator.  I have nothing meaningful to contribute to that part of the equation.  I am saying that with the resource profile you described, I think the likelihood of a successful attempt is de minimis.  

Thus my attention is mostly elsewhere.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 21, 2014, 07:15:17 PM
 #470

MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication

A taskforce is set up to address the issue of a possible "BCX exploit", and an ultimatum by BCX to find and fix it in 72 hours lest a serious attack is launched upon Monero.

The taskforce consists of several Monero developers, AnonyMint, CZ, jl777 and me.

There are differing opinions in the taskforce concerning the severity of the threat. No coinkiller is yet found and several avenues are probed. The members who have technical competence are talking about their views themselves.

Regardless of the outcome in the technical side, this is a serious economic attack on Monero - about 15% of the pre-ultimatum value is lost, and there is a great information asymmetry plaguing traders currently. It is notable that nobody has offered to borrow XMR for shorting (which I could provide against full guarantee deposit of BTC). Neither has anyone bought the PUT options. This means that the downside speculation has so far been limited to selling out from a trader's own stash. An economically motivated player who knows for sure about a lethal attack might decide to take leverage for personal gain.

I believe that the Monero devs are up to their task and can mitigate the potential exploit, and fix the code in preparation of the announced attack. I further believe that Monero will rise even stronger. Since I am not in possession of any knowledge that indicates that a realistic attack could take place, I can only estimate the probability that it exists unnoticed, and my estimate is 4-8%.

The MEW will be inaugurated on Tuesday, and also the devteam has important announcements (not related to the attack). Provided that our coin still exists, I am sure we have a great future ahead of us as a community with these new methods of organizing our activities for the mutual benefit.

His prior version of that which he sent to us in a PM stated that I had not discovered anything that smooth and fluffy had not already known. And that he trusts them more than me (and jl777). That irked me, because smooth knows I had not given him anything final and was in a mad rush to characterize and refine my understanding of ability to break the anonymity.

It irked me not only because he said that to us, but because apparently fluffy and or smooth rushed to tell him that "he found nothing", without giving me time to sleep, wake up and digest their whitepaper and finish refining my anonymity attack algorithm.

Couple that with the posts fluffy made as I awoke today, and I am sorry but I don't think these guys are respectful.

Doesn't feel right to me. I am doing sleep deprivation and they are busy dissing me behind my back.

Who is in charge? Sounds like fluffy and smooth are?

No one is in charge really.

As for Risto, I know he values your input.  Fluffy and Smooth are also among the advisers that Risto is listening to wrt monero.  
I think he is also listening to your advice and is still awaiting something more conclusive to have analyzed.

I've looked at parts of where you are going with it, but you are ahead of me still on it.

Some decisions he probably made with too little information, but that is the nature of deciding.  When the time comes, you have to decide.

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September 21, 2014, 07:15:53 PM
 #471

You can't repair ex post facto (or even now) the anonymity because you can't erase the block chain. If I am correct, it is already broken. Wasn't that the only feature of Monero?

I don't know why BCX didn't just threaten to do that instead and short XMR. No need to steal coins nor do a Time Warp.

If it's already broken, we have much bigger problems.

But don't worry there is only 4% chance of that. Ask rpietila, he is a prophet.
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September 21, 2014, 07:16:20 PM
 #472

His prior version of that which he sent to us in a PM stated that I had not discovered anything that smooth and fluffy had not already known. And that he trusts them more than me (and jl777). That irked me, because smooth knows I had not given him anything final and was in a mad rush to characterize and refine my understanding of ability to break the anonymity.

I posted that you had (likely) developed something new and were continuing t work on it. Do I need to find the link or did you see it?

Quote
It irked me not only because he said that to us, but because apparently fluffy and or smooth rushed to tell him that "he found nothing", without giving me time to sleep, wake up and digest their whitepaper and finish refining my anonymity attack algorithm.

As I told you, I was going to sleep as well. I told Risto nothing. In fact I told no one anything other than forwarding your interim results. Perhaps those results, given the pressure of the situation and without proper context, were misinterpreted?

Quote
Doesn't feel right to me. I am doing sleep deprivation and they are busy dissing me behind my back.

How about not assuming the worst when you don't know it to be true (and it isn't)?

Quote
Who is in charge? Sounds like fluffy and smooth are?

We are all doing everything we can address the threat of an attack and also continue work on the project.

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September 21, 2014, 07:17:09 PM
 #473

As for Risto, I know he values your input.

I thought so too when he gifted me 2 BTC. This time I don't think so. I feel like I am viewed as a trouble maker or feeding "the troll BCX".

I should have never got involved.

Now I have an potential attack on my shelf.
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September 21, 2014, 07:19:54 PM
 #474

I posted that you had (likely) developed something new and were continuing t work on it. Do I need to find the link or did you see it?

So why did rpietila PM'ed us that I had found nothing.

And fluffy acting that way in public posts too.

And even zoidberg stating it wouldn't matter because anonymity isn't used in most txs (see quote upthread).
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September 21, 2014, 07:24:27 PM
 #475

I, as an (atm ex-)Investor of Monero for the life of me can't understand how one can refuse to open an official forum.

We've said several times that:

1. We don't believe that our size, scope and reach are enough for a separate "official" forum to have enough traffic to be viable . That is consistent with other coins of similar age and market cap. Those that do have their own forums, the forums are very low activity and certainly not enough of a draw to attract new users. In case you haven't noticed, basically no one at all outside this community has ever even heard of Monero.

2. We are working on forum software as part of a wider web presence that will be released when ready, but that it will exist (at least in the short term) alongside our continued participation here in the broader cryptocurrency community.

When we get to perhaps top 5 status or better, are widely reported on in the wider media, etc., hopefully we can leave this cesspoll of trolling and hate behind altogether. I look forward to that day.

Quote
That's basically inviting the trolls to bash the coin, damaging the interest of all who're here for the good of XMR.

The trolls are here because the users are here. If no one were paying attention, they wouldn't troll.

For the most part the effect of the trolling is neutral or counterproductive, but still annoying.
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September 21, 2014, 07:24:41 PM
 #476

As for Risto, I know he values your input.

I thought so too when he gifted me 2 BTC. This time I don't think so. I feel like I am viewed as a trouble maker or feeding "the troll BCX".

I strongly disagree with that assessment.  He is seeking advice and knowledge in an uncertain time.
I know your analysis is not being dismissed, not at all, just not factored in completely because it is not yet complete.

I for one am certain you are not trolling and that you also have serious concerns, so I am looking at some similar things.  
And to how the effects of Nash equilibrium may mitigate the Sybil attacks on anonymity.

This is one of the reasons for the urgency for translations clients and geographic diversity.
It is not a perfect solution, but it can mitigate some effects.  The weighting of this planning is done from consideration of your work and analysis, so I know it is being considered seriously.

Looking forward to more when you are rested and ready to give it the concentration it would require.

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September 21, 2014, 07:28:01 PM
 #477

feeding "the troll BCX".

There is a very real and significant possibility that BCX is in fact a glorified troll. In fact almost by definition that is the case.

Why the scare quotes? Do you have conflicting information?
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September 21, 2014, 07:29:53 PM
 #478

Rpietila wrote publicly only 4 - 8% chance of any lasting harm to Monero.

The same guy who said Bitcoin wouldn't fall below $400 twice and I am the same guy who PUBLICLY predicted both times it would.

And my group got out at $485 and bought back in below $400 because in the $500s I told them it would go below $400 again to retest the prior bottom.

Edit: If BCX doesn't attack successfully, Rpietila will be correct, for a short time.

Impressive.

I also recall rptiella being the same guy that bought bitcoin at $10.

Indeed and he deserves credit for that along with 1000s of others. But that wasn't a short-term trading analysis.

dear god.  can we just setup a webcam so you guys can whip them out and see who's is bigger & drop the facade?

geez

He and smooth et al also said it was following a FUD cycle and had bottomed at 380. Then we went below 300.

True, but I'm sure they hadn't(as neither could any of us) taken into account this whole situation arising with BCX. That in itself(along with Bitcoin in it's bearish state) caused the further price fall.

They said that in rpietila's Altcoin Observer thread after BCX started the prior thread.
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September 21, 2014, 07:33:00 PM
 #479

smooth is the calming voice of reason in PMs. Kudos to him for calming me down.
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September 21, 2014, 07:45:39 PM
 #480

It is not my preference to attack any coin. Tearing things down is not what I do. I build things. If ever I defeat any coin, I want it to be through competition, not by attacking another coin when I could have instead offered a fix.

I urge the monero developers to stop jumping to conclusions until smooth and I have fully vetted my ideas on the anonymity attack. Assuming smooth and jl777/zoidberg still want to continue?

I am obviously a person driven by deep emotional commitment to the things I work on. Thus I should not participate in a public forum, nor deal with multiple personalities. Or I need to understand this is just a bunch of "boys will be boys" stuff and let it slide off my back.

I need to be better at ignoring what people say. It is not a habit that comes easy to me.

I prefer to build trusted relationships. I am zodiac Cancer.
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