Bitcoin Savings and Trust is probably a Ponzi Scheme: A Petition

[bitlane]

Friday night......

(disclaimer - the Starfish blah blah vodka blah)

Yes, Must be good vodka.....considering it's actually Thursday night....

[1715061293]

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[MarketNeutral]

a currency that's actually used in everyday commerce, not just shady transactions?

sorry to burst your bubble mark, but shady transactions are everyday commerce.

Thank you for enlightening me. I had no idea. Any other words of wisdom?

I was talking about paying for stuff like pasta, piano lessons, paperback books, picture frames, and anything else people regularly purchase without fear of being discovered.

[bitlane]

I was talking about paying for stuff like pasta, piano lessons, paperback books, picture frames.....

Does that also apply to bananas, bikes, boating safety courses, big block chevys and beer ?

[farfiman]

This subject has already been covered in many other threads.  The most recent one here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77889.0

You are not the first to have this brilliant thought and will not be the last I am sure.

There are many good points on both sides in the thread above.  Do we really need yet another thread?

BTW:  There have been two attempts to create ways to short BS&T, that is you would get paid if it failed.  At least one of these failed due to lack of interest (no one wanted to bet against Pirate).  There are also several bets going if you want to bet on it at various gambling sites.

These people dont want to risk their own coins on this happening - They just want a way to say "I told you so " if it does.

[miscreanity]

I don't feel like rewriting an explanation.

... how will these high rates affect the overall bitcoin market? Someone had mentioned an investment of 25KBCT.

I won't go into the numbers much for now - the principle concept is more important. Two primary factors need to be acknowledged:

• The dynamics behind Pirate's business result in high demand for bitcoins in relation to other currencies, particularly USD
• Bitcoin's current supply inflation is about 25-30% per year

These are opposing forces that act to restrain the external exchange price rise (assume USD/BTC for this discussion).

What you seem to be concerned with is the internal mechanism. As long as supply is available through either inflation or willing sellers, high BTC/BTC returns are feasible. If the internal demand outpaces available supply, the exchange price will rise; that's the external influence (USD/BTC) which entices existing bitcoin holders to sell, replenishing the supply and allowing the high returns to continue.

At the inflection point where mining rewards are halved as we approach 2013, there may very well be a need to decrease the rates. However, that still leaves another four years of 8-12% base inflation, not including sellers (whether purely BTC sellers from within the system [mining, paid for work, etc] or foreign exchange [USD<->BTC] sellers). So the insanely high returns we're seeing now probably will persist for at least another six months, but will eventually decline as the percentage of total bitcoins held by FPS&T (I'll always think of it as First Pirate, not BS&T ) grows, or if Pirate's external-facing side of the Bitcoin business slows down.

We're witnessing an external speculative wave of wealth escaping overbearing, self-destructing fiat currencies by jumping into safer waters - right now it's only a trickle, and the internal structure is extremely fluid. Still, the signs of basic structures are forming - banking, lending, storage and security, transaction facilitation, etc.

Pirate & Co. may be single-handedly enabling and funnelling external demand into the bitcoin system. If Pirate maintains the present course and quality of service (both inside the Bitcoin community/network and out), I expect no less than two years remain for rapid growth. By then, competition may have solidified and be acting as a limiting factor to enforce more sustainable levels of expansion.

Obviously this program wasn't meant to last forever. But as long as you get your principle back, no crying or whining allowed.

Exactly, and there's no reason to believe principle won't be returned in full - this isn't your daddy's fiat currency: it's a pirate's

tl;dr - FPS&T growth is dependent upon Bitcoin's growth and is extremely unlikely to fail until Bitcoin stops growing, even if it is a Ponzi scheme.

[Raoul Duke]

OP, put your money, if you have any, where your mouth is or just STFU...

And believe me, this ^^ is good advice. And I'm giving it for free when I should charge for it

[pekv2]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

Defaulting is bad I believe, owing people. Even if there is a slightest chance, why are people buying into this?

Edit:
I've been lurking at the BTC saving & trust & the pirate thing.

Whole situation feels eerie.

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

[Raoul Duke]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

Defaulting is bad I believe, owing people. Even if there is a slightest chance, why are people buying into this?

Beats me. I don't bet, but the OP, believing as much as he does it being a ponzi scheme, should bet.

[miscreanity]

Defaulting is bad I believe, owing people. Even if there is a slightest chance, why are people buying into this?

Edit:
I've been lurking at the BTC saving & trust & the pirate thing.

Whole situation feels eerie.

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

Detractors are making it seem as though pirate is teetering on the brink of insolvency. Bitcoin is a growing ecosystem. You could run the most horrid service with cooked books galore and still have a decent chance of profiting handsomely. Growth can cover up a lot of issues.

Meanwhile, the opposite of that is the existing fiat monetary system. I'd be more concerned about default in that arena than anything going on with Bitcoin, pirate included.

I think we've all been so conditioned to expect fragility due to contemporary weaknesses that it's being extrapolated and projected onto everything Bitcoin.

Case in point:

Ann Barnhardt raises warnings again: MF Global 2.0 May Be Unfolding Now

After MF Global failed last year, there was a Canadian firm and a Japanese fund that mimicked the rehypothecation fiasco. Now, it looks like the next wave is hitting, and it's a big one.

If you haven't yet, follow Jim Sinclair's advice to make your holdings book entries at the respective transfer agents so that your ownership of stocks cannot be questioned as easily as if it were your word against your broker. This isn't a guarantee, but it's better than nothing.

More instruction on direct registry from JSMineset.

As for the situation feeling eerie - it always helps to understand an approach. If you don't see how it works, there's no shame in staying away.

[PatrickHarnett]

Friday night......

(disclaimer - the Starfish blah blah vodka blah)

Yes, Must be good vodka.....considering it's actually Thursday night....

Did you forget I'm on UTC+12?

[Raoul Duke]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

Defaulting is bad I believe, owing people. Even if there is a slightest chance, why are people buying into this?

Beats me. I don't bet, but the OP, believing as much as he does it being a ponzi scheme, should bet.

The yes bets haven't budged in a week. It's disappointing, because I was hoping to make some money off of them.

You can't make money out of jealous dead beats who can't even afford 100BTC to have an account with BTCS&T

Someone more creative than me should modify the form below and release a Bitcoin version of it

[ineededausername]

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

For the record, I have not defaulted on any loans from pekv2 yet (or defaulted on any other obligations).  pekv2 will confirm this.  I have contacted him regarding the PM.  I fully intend to repay pekv2 and my other lenders.

Also, for the record, I will not default on loans just because you do not PM me, or just because I miss PMs.  They are recorded in a spreadsheet, by username and bitcoin address, with multiple backups.

[pekv2]

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

For the record, I have not defaulted on any loans from pekv2 yet (or defaulted on any other obligations).  pekv2 will confirm this.  I have contacted him regarding the PM.  I fully intend to repay pekv2 and my other lenders.

Also, for the record, I will not default on loans just because you do not PM me, or just because I miss PMs.  They are recorded in a spreadsheet, by username and bitcoin address, with multiple backups.

Yes, I confirm that I have received a pm as explained to me there were technical difficulties with the personal message system that was suppose to send out mass notifications that I never received.

Please forgive me on both parts of me taking it in public as I didn't want to send more pm's that I already had to you inau.

[ineededausername]

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

For the record, I have not defaulted on any loans from pekv2 yet (or defaulted on any other obligations).  pekv2 will confirm this.  I have contacted him regarding the PM.  I fully intend to repay pekv2 and my other lenders.

Also, for the record, I will not default on loans just because you do not PM me, or just because I miss PMs.  They are recorded in a spreadsheet, by username and bitcoin address, with multiple backups.

Yes, I confirm that I have received a pm as explained to me there were technical difficulties with the personal message system that was suppose to send out mass notifications that I never received.

Please forgive me on both parts of me taking it in public as I didn't want to send more pm's that I already had to you inau.

I've PMed you again, hopefully bringing this matter to a close
Sorry for not responding to your many PMs.

[pekv2]

On the 14th, I'm even pulling out from IneedAUsername, as I pm'd him multiple times and have not got a reply yet.

For the record, I have not defaulted on any loans from pekv2 yet (or defaulted on any other obligations).  pekv2 will confirm this.  I have contacted him regarding the PM.  I fully intend to repay pekv2 and my other lenders.

Also, for the record, I will not default on loans just because you do not PM me, or just because I miss PMs.  They are recorded in a spreadsheet, by username and bitcoin address, with multiple backups.

Yes, I confirm that I have received a pm as explained to me there were technical difficulties with the personal message system that was suppose to send out mass notifications that I never received.

Please forgive me on both parts of me taking it in public as I didn't want to send more pm's that I already had to you inau.

I've PMed you again, hopefully bringing this matter to a close
Sorry for not responding to your many PMs.

Confirmed. Everything is all cleared up.

Thank you.

[nrd525]

>>lol - must have a big chip on shoulder - been arguing against people making returns for a while.

>>http://www.campusactivism.org/blog/node/351#comment-711

>>Actually, a doom-sayer from way back.


Note: At $18, I correctly predicted that BTC was going to crash and wrote about it in my blog.  I shorted it down from $6 or $7 to $2.20 on bitcoinica (once it became available).  I sold out at very close to the bottom (20 cents from the $2 bottom).  My predictions and trades were dead on. 

Currently I've got a very small short of BTC which I started at $6.

The most I've lost on a BTC trade is a couple cents from my test trades.  My BTC trading record is one of a little skill and luck.  Mostly I haven't taken major risks because I don't trust the websites that do options (I spent over a month getting my money out of bitoptions.org - where I also made money, ask Peter.)

I'm a critical thinker. I'm now more positive about the possibility that BTC could succeed than back in June 2011 when it was surging through the roof and looked like a big boom/bust cycle, however there still are other competitors that could trump it (eg. a better effort than what the Canadian mint is doing with its alternative electronic currency) -- so I'm cautious.   

Instead of picking on BTC in general, I'm focusing on Bitcoin Savings and Trust.  I haven't posted much, but I've read 1000+ posts on this forum (I like the drama!) and have seen the BTC economy experience a ton of scams.



I missed where Pirate's identity is given.  Please provide a link.


If I was trafficking drugs or laundering money, I'd reinvest my profits (which would be substantial - otherwise I wouldn't be taking the risks).  I wouldn't need additional capital from people on the internet as that would expose my illicit project to too much attention and increase the odds of getting busted.   

I could understand asking for startup capital, but he is asking for startup capital AND for growth capital so that he can pay out 33.5% per month on additional capital AND make more than that so he will actually grow his operation (and not just pay it all out to investors). 

[nrd525]

I'd bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust in US dollars.    I don't want to earn BTC because I think it could lose value when Bitcoin Savings and Trust fails (and I'm slightly bearish on BTC in general).

I'm risk-adverse, so I'd want a longterm bet.  I'd bet it will fail by Jan 1 2013.  I'm also worried about bitcoin sites stealing my money, so ideally I'd like a trusted third party to hold us to the bet.

[Raoul Duke]

I'd bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust in US dollars.    I don't want to earn BTC because I think it could lose value when Bitcoin Savings and Trust fails (and I'm slightly bearish on BTC in general).

I'm risk-adverse, so I'd want a longterm bet.  I'd bet it will fail by Jan 1 2013.  I'm also worried about bitcoin sites stealing my money, so ideally I'd like a trusted third party to hold us to the bet.

Sorry dude, people here only deal in real money... BTC or GTFO.

Also, if you really were risk adverse you wouldn't take any bets, you would stay the hell out of Bitcoinica and from any kind of exchange market...

Your shit doesn't fly, sorry...

[Maged]

For the record, I am also of the mind that Pirate is going to collapse. If it's not a ponzi, it's drugs or money laundering (both of which would make him enough money). For all we know, this could be how Silk Road is able to safely hedge orders, which would explain the need to grow. No matter what, though, this means that it could collapse at any moment - the only question is when.

[Meni Rosenfeld]

Lest my comments be misinterpreted, I'll clarify I'm not taking a side in this debate.

I'd have to say that the reason I seriously doubt it's a ponzi scheme is that he's limiting his growth through "availability".

That's exactly what a person running a ponzi would want you to think.

I'd bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust in US dollars.    I don't want to earn BTC because I think it could lose value when Bitcoin Savings and Trust fails (and I'm slightly bearish on BTC in general).

I'm risk-adverse, so I'd want a longterm bet.  I'd bet it will fail by Jan 1 2013.  I'm also worried about bitcoin sites stealing my money, so ideally I'd like a trusted third party to hold us to the bet.

At what odds? If it's anywhere near 1:1, I think nobody would take that bet. Even for someone who is 100% sure Pirate will default at a uniformly random time between now and Jan 1 2013, investing some amount in his program is an economically sound decision (maybe not legally/ethically) - let alone someone who believes he will not default in this time period, who would rather invest funds in pirate than offer collateral for this bet.

About the USD denomination, that even further complicates things, and you should consider instead hedging against currency risk by extending your short position on Bitcoinica.