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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 112367 times)
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ensurance982
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April 23, 2015, 08:51:50 PM
 #101

This is an interesting way to approach the 'real' price of Bitcoin... I've seen many people do similar things. I guess one of the most prominent being rpietila, you know the guy with the castle and the pink car. Haha, man... he's awesome!
He predicted 1 Million per coin back then. I wonder where does he stand nowadays and if he still believes that will happen and when.
He claims he dumped a lot of his bitcoins for monero. He may have been pumping and dumping.

He did, but he's only pumping Monero, not dumping it. Smiley

Yeah that was really puzzling me, seeing someone like him really falling for an altcoin. If any crypto succeeds it will most likely be Bitcoin, there's no reason to invest in anything else - it really is just exposing you to more risk.

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ensurance982
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April 23, 2015, 09:17:58 PM
 #102

I think altcoins breaks that theory cuz they reduce people interests to bitcoin.

Well they actually only water down the amount of money that goes into BTC. But since they only account for about 5% of the whole market cap they don't really matter at all actually. There is still no coin on the horizon that may be a real threat to BTC, maybe one day we will see one but I think the chances aren't exactly high.

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April 24, 2015, 03:26:19 AM
 #103

This is an interesting way to approach the 'real' price of Bitcoin... I've seen many people do similar things. I guess one of the most prominent being rpietila, you know the guy with the castle and the pink car. Haha, man... he's awesome!
He predicted 1 Million per coin back then. I wonder where does he stand nowadays and if he still believes that will happen and when.
He claims he dumped a lot of his bitcoins for monero. He may have been pumping and dumping.

He did, but he's only pumping Monero, not dumping it. Smiley

Yeah that was really puzzling me, seeing someone like him really falling for an altcoin. If any crypto succeeds it will most likely be Bitcoin, there's no reason to invest in anything else - it really is just exposing you to more risk.

An altcoin like Monero can succeed alongside Bitcoin in the privacy niche.
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April 24, 2015, 11:32:50 AM
 #104

Please, Sirs, let's keep this thread clean.

There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.

Thank you.
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May 02, 2015, 05:23:22 PM
 #105

Trolololo thanks for the charts. Are you interested in releasing the spread sheet so that we can easily update the spread per your formula?

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May 20, 2015, 03:11:35 AM
 #106

Trolololo thanks for the charts. Are you interested in releasing the spread sheet so that we can easily update the spread per your formula?

This is a good idea, besides that, can we have an update? Thank you for your relentless good work
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May 21, 2015, 06:46:02 PM
 #107

Since some days ago we are in record undervaluation: -81%

When a model results in such a large difference with respect to reality, it's time to abandon the model.
Some may prefer to abandon reality though... Wink

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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May 28, 2015, 04:57:08 PM
 #108

Trolololo thanks for the charts. Are you interested in releasing the spread sheet so that we can easily update the spread per your formula?

I'm working on a public Google spreadsheet that:
- auto-updates daily prices, and
- auto-executes the "solver" command to find the best parameters.

But it will take some time...
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May 28, 2015, 06:28:53 PM
Last edit: January 10, 2017, 11:56:27 AM by Trolololo
 #109

Hello everybody.

Here is the update (two and a half months since the last one):


Donations: bitcoin:1GVyRMXFaSEbXUCMwZKk3CfXgo8wCmympC

Today's price of 235 USD/BTC is 81% undervalued from the estimated value of 1234 USD/BTC

You can calculate today's trendline value HERE.

Projected (dd-mm-yyyy):
     1.000  22-03-2015  (former update projected 17-01-2015)
    10.000  25-07-2017  (former update projected 10-04-2017)
   100.000  17-10-2020  (former update projected 30-04-2020)
1.000.000  30-03-2025  (former update projected 08-07-2024)

Thank you all for your donations.
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May 28, 2015, 08:50:50 PM
 #110

Thanks for the update!
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May 28, 2015, 09:01:29 PM
Last edit: January 10, 2017, 11:56:42 AM by Trolololo
 #111

Here is a chart showing the evolution of the logarithmic regression curve:


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June 26, 2015, 09:48:31 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2015, 10:10:42 AM by lordoliver
 #112

Hi Trolololo,

I love your graphs and I think they are a good estimation. Thank you.
I just think, that there are some wrong assumptions.

1. The price is depending on the dollar. That means, that the fed printing money or stopping can change that. In the worst case they can for example move a lot of money of the market and let everything dive into worst deflation. That could change the graph completely and turn it maybe upside down. I suggest to use GOLD as comparision currency. Can you use the graph estimation depending on ounces or grams of gold? I guess it could be a little more stable as well.



2. I don't think that the function is accurate for long term. With the dollar it may look like the right one an may also look like that later if the fed is continuing to ease. If you switch to gold you need definitely a function with a supremum. If the adaption is complete bitcoin shouldn't change much any more to gold...

regards
Oliver
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June 26, 2015, 01:51:22 PM
 #113

I think I saw a infographic somewhere stating for BTC to be 1% of the world economy, it would have to be priced around $10,000 for 1 bitcoin.

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June 26, 2015, 03:24:23 PM
 #114

lots of detail in this analysis

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July 01, 2015, 11:33:43 AM
 #115

Hi, Lord Oliver

1.- The resulting parameters would be almost identical. Dollar and gold relationship is very stable compared to bitcoin...

2.- The logarithmic function is quite nice for a medium term horizon (1 or 2 years from now) and it's much better than the linear one.
But it's not as accurate in the long term. As I have stated in former posts, I would prefer an asymptotic function for the long term.

Regards.
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July 01, 2015, 11:58:02 AM
 #116

Hi, Lord Oliver

1.- The resulting parameters would be almost identical. Dollar and gold relationship is very stable compared to bitcoin...

2.- The logarithmic function is quite nice for a medium term horizon (1 or 2 years from now) and it's much better than the linear one.
But it's not as accurate in the long term. As I have stated in former posts, I would prefer an asymptotic function for the long term.

Regards.

Yes I know, that its kind of stable compared to bitcoin, but still it defuses a little the spike in 2011 for example. That may make your graphs of the early years a little less diverge.
The only problem with gold is, that its price is manipulated. It would normally (and does sometimes, if manipulation failes) follow the bitcoin spikes a little as the bitcoin price is also (of course minor but still) driven by bad economy.
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July 30, 2015, 07:32:27 PM
 #117




Cool chart, but the bitcoin price just overwhelms it. The trend lines look practically identical to what I've drawn on my own long term chart, priced in USD.
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August 22, 2015, 09:26:17 PM
 #118

Please, Sirs, let's keep this thread clean.

There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.

Thank you.
 
  
Trolololo, I don't know if you know me or not, but I'm a big fan.  How much of a donation would it require to get you to create a chart like this for Monero? (even though I know we only have a year of history to go off of)

Account is back under control of the real AmericanPegasus.
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August 23, 2015, 07:09:13 AM
 #119

Do you really want to see a chart that mostly points down ?
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August 23, 2015, 06:19:37 PM
 #120

Requesting updated chart since last one did in May 2015.

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