Bitcoin Forum
June 24, 2024, 09:10:33 AM
 News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 Home Help Search Login Register More
 Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15]  All
 Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 117661 times) This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
bbcdbbcd
Newbie

Offline

Activity: 6
Merit: 4

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value May 27, 2023, 09:17:57 AMMerited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Useful video on YouTube called "The Bitcoin Power Law Growth Corridor" by Chad Thackray. Well worth watching.

The description says: We implement a model popularised by Harold Burger, which uses a log-log chart of bitcoin and then applies linear regression to establish a long term corridor of price action, which has worked well over the past 10 years. It's a useful indicator to zoom out and see the big picture, without getting worked up over day to day price action.

bbcdbbcd
Newbie

Offline

Activity: 6
Merit: 4

 May 29, 2023, 10:07:18 AMMerited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin price prediction 2023 - 2033 "lowest" price based on log log power law devised by Harold Burger.

Forecasting Bitcoin's Minimum Value. This provides an estimate of the "lowest" potential value, expressed in US Dollars (USD), for a single unit of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the logarithmic power law model developed by Harold Burger. It's crucial to underscore that these figures represent the absolute minimum values, suggesting that actual prices could only be higher.

Please approach these predictions with an understanding of their inherent uncertainty.

2023: \$16,000
2024: \$24,000
2025: \$35,000
2026: \$50,000
2027: \$70,000
2028: \$95,000
2029: \$125,000
2030: \$165,000
2031: \$225,000
2032: \$285,000
2033: \$375,000

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Charts/
mmortal03
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1762
Merit: 1010

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value June 07, 2023, 07:44:30 PM

Just noticed www.moonmath.win is up again. (The model hasn't been updated, though.)
BTCdragosfera
Jr. Member

Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 23

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value January 05, 2024, 09:10:13 AM

Useful video on YouTube called "The Bitcoin Power Law Growth Corridor" by Chad Thackray. Well worth watching.

The description says: We implement a model popularised by Harold Burger, which uses a log-log chart of bitcoin and then applies linear regression to establish a long term corridor of price action, which has worked well over the past 10 years. It's a useful indicator to zoom out and see the big picture, without getting worked up over day to day price action.

The model was created by me on Reddit, https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/ . Burger quotes me but for some reason everybody attributes the model to him. He did a good job in popularizing it but it is not his model. Anyway, it turns out that the obscure math Trolololo uses is actually a power law. Nobody observed this until recently. It would have been much more impactful if he had written as a simple power law, Price=A*days^n. That is it. Trolololo parameters were a little off because of the little data collected at that time.
BTCdragosfera
Jr. Member

Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 23

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value January 05, 2024, 09:19:03 AMMerited by JayJuanGee (1)

Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)

01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?

Hi Sergii,
It turns the model of Trolololo is nothing else than a power law. He wrote the formula, log10(Price)=A*ln(days)-C but this can be rewritten as Price=10^(A*ln(days)-C) or Price=days^(Aln(10))/10^C or price=B*days^n where B=1/10^C and n=A*ln(10).
It is a big deal because a power law first of all looks like a straight line in a log log graph and BTC looks exactly like that. And also power laws are very important in science. Many phenomena in nature follow power law. I will write soon a medium article on this topic. I think Trolololo discovery was the most important in BTC history (well together with my realization that it is a power law not some random formula).
BTCdragosfera
Jr. Member

Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 23

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value January 12, 2024, 01:01:40 AM

Amazingly, this model is still valid today. Not in its exact formulation but in the equation itself.

It turns out it is actually a POWER LAW (or SCALING LAW), the Trolololo formula can be written, with some simple algebra, as Estimated Price=A * (days from GB)^n, where GB is Genesis Block, A is 10^-17 and n=5.83.

Trolololo had instead log10(Price)= D *logn(days from GB)-C, the values for D and C that Trolololo regression gave are a little off because he had less data and also calculated the fit just after the top of one of the cycles and that skewed the result. Also, the use of 2 different logs, one in base 10 and one in natural base threw me off and I could not recognize his formula as a power law but it was indeed a power law.

I'm not sure about Trolololo's background but I guess he didn't know about the significance of Power Laws. Power Laws are really important in science and technology. See this talk to understand why:

But he had a very good intuition that was to focus on how BTC scales up with increments of 10, 100, 1000s. So he used the log10 in the y-axis and noticed that it was not a straight line (that it would be if the growth was exponential) but a curve. He still kept the time in a linear scale so he decided to use a non-linear regression that indicated that the best fit was a log progression in time.

If he indeed plotted the log10 of price and the log10 of days from GB he would have noticed the incredible fact that the price progression then looks like a straight line! That means we are dealing with a power law.

There is no reason to use 2 different bases for the log and it is more natural to use the base of 10.

I didn't give much consideration to Trolololo's model because it seemed initially an arbitrary model (why log progression?).

I worked on many BTC price models but as a physicist, we are trained to plot data that do not fit initial simple linear or exponential models in a log-log chart because another form of natural law that is ubiquitous is a power law of the form y=A x^n.

But it is not usual to plot assets in a log-log chart given almost no asset is a power law.

But as Kepler did when he looked for the laws for planetary motion I decided one day to plot the price of BTC in a log-log chart.

I almost fell from the chair when I realized it was indeed a straight line!

It completely makes sense because BTC is a network and one of the characteristics of networks is that some of their parameters show power law behavior, but it is an amazing fact and something almost nobody knows and for sure not the media or the general public.

It is as a fundamental discovery as BTC itself. I'm not kidding. It means that BTC price is not random but follows a predictable behavior over the long run that is similar to the behavior of mountains, rivers, cities and nations. BTC is a force of nature itself.

I take the credit for identifying it as a power law because as far as I know, I was one of the first people to point out this and to post the discovery on reddit 5 years ago (hcbuger used my idea and popularized it, he quoted my post on reddit but for some reason everybody attributes the power law model to him).

But the credit for the first intuition that BTC scaling is important goes to the great Trolololo with his grandfather model in 2014. Just amazing. Forget about S2F, The BTC Scaling Law is the true law of BTC.

If you are interested this is my first post about BTC being a power law:

And here is an update after 5 years from that first post:

Also, you can follow me on X with updates on the model and its significance here:

yurets_z
Newbie

Offline

Activity: 8
Merit: 5

 Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value January 17, 2024, 09:28:20 PMLast edit: January 18, 2024, 07:57:59 AM by yurets_z

....

Hi Sergii,
It turns the model of Trolololo is nothing else than a power law. He wrote the formula, log10(Price)=A*ln(days)-C but this can be rewritten as Price=10^(A*ln(days)-C) or Price=days^(Aln(10))/10^C or price=B*days^n where B=1/10^C and n=A*ln(10).
It is a big deal because a power law first of all looks like a straight line in a log log graph and BTC looks exactly like that. .....

A really nice observation, but BTC cyclic nature looks much better in a Log-linear scale, since time is often a linear thing (IMHO).
Like in the example here

https://i.ibb.co/m4kYCsq/BTC-Plan-52.png
 Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15]  All