Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[rpietila]

I'm just wondering who's going to be willing to sell coins at these prices.

BTC21k for $50, BTC65k for $40, BTC116k for $30...

Of course bids can be pulled. Guess we'll be seeing soon.

The downside of pulling bids is, you end up chasing the price once it takes off. Bitstamp is one of the second largest exchanges, and I remember one time not too long ago that it was completely cleared of all asks in excess of BTC100. I went to sleep, not being able to buy my daily quota.

The big fish swim slowly. Besides they often think in terms of coins, not fiat. It is no wonder the Winklewii bought 108,000 coins. It is a percent of the supply outstanding.

For anyone with $30M of more (HNWI), it is more a question, what number of coins they want to buy, than at what price. Many are content to buy them significantly higher if ever there is supply at those prices. Too bad there wasn't, so they needed to bring the price down to acquire the number of coins they want. It is collateral damage that they also got them cheaper 

[hobbes]

The big fish swim slowly. Besides they often think in terms of coins, not fiat. It is no wonder the Winklewii bought 108,000 coins. It is a percent of the supply outstanding.

And they will not let their investment and image be damaged. I would bet a good part of the wall at $50 is theirs.

In a week they might announce they own two percent because of smart/informed trading during the crash.

[just1nmc]

Bids at $50 are still rising. Way too early to say anything but there's definitely thousands of coins being bought in the 50s.

[hobbes]

The coin volumes are absolutely wicked high right now:




For comparison, here is the 2011 crash, coin volumes were much lower (even though prices were also much lower), except for the final bottom at $2 there is a huge spike in volume:




If I had to guess, we will bottom in the next few weeks at prices not too far from this. I would be very surprised to see anything below $30. From there we will stabilize and after some time beginning climbing upwards again. Just for fun, I'll add a prediction of breaking the ATH this year.

Yeah, people are so afraid of the slow decline that it might not happen.

[keewee]

The coin volumes are absolutely wicked high right now:

Hell yeah! Getting close to half a million traded today 

[Jaques]

how much coins are trapped in bitcoin-24.de?

edit: 21K?

[Bitsaurus]

Well why hold it and watch it go to $32 when you can sell it and rebuy between $16 and $50 (whatever you feel is better).

[just1nmc]

Well why hold it and watch it go to $32 when you can sell it and rebuy between $16 and $50 (whatever you feel is better).

If someone hasn't sold by now, it's getting less and less appealing to do so. Trying to double up by selling at $50 is assuming it will reach the bottom most people are looking to buy at.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's becoming more of a gamble the lower the price is. People who wanted to sell and buy back cheaper should've already sold.

[Bitsaurus]

Well I was answering the question of why panic selling as opposed to slow selling like in 2011.  If you're going to dump and you know it will go down, dump early.

Those who are trying to catch the bottom are catching knives, but now the knives aren't as sharp.

Still you don't correct a bubble in 5 days, it will go lower still, but might hit $100 again before that.

[ManBearPig]

My first published chart since the crash.



Disclaimer: it's just numbers and a little bit of extrapolation in case we revert to a generally bullish trend set in the first couple of months of this year so perma-bears and perma-bulls please don't bite

[simonk83]

Well, I've quadrupled the amount of coins I had free before the run up, and I'm now in hold mode    In it for the long term, so at least when it spikes again I won't be as annoyed with myself that I didn't buy when they were cheaper.

[jl2012]

This trend is obviously broken. There is no reason to believe there is exponential amount of new money keep flowing in after the huge correction.

My first published chart since the crash.



Disclaimer: it's just numbers and a little bit of extrapolation in case we revert to a generally bullish trend set in the first couple of months of this year so perma-bears and perma-bulls please don't bite

[pinger]

Is not as huge, still 42 times most value a BTC than a €

People who bought at 32 in 2011 have wins if they don't sold.

[ManBearPig]

This trend is obviously broken. There is no reason to believe there is exponential amount of new money keep flowing in after the huge correction.

My first published chart since the crash.

Disclaimer: it's just numbers and a little bit of extrapolation in case we revert to a generally bullish trend set in the first couple of months of this year so perma-bears and perma-bulls please don't bite

The sum of all recent trends fits this trend-line (1.8% daily) very well. We can only speculate, none of us have magic powers.

I for one will use that as a reference point and would wager that big money waiting to come in would have something similar in mind.

The strategy of buying into that kind of growth and exiting when it either increased or decreased would have netted you a massive gain. It might be worth bearing in mind for the future.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

The biggest support from where this rally started was the the ATH of 2011 $32~.
If it breaks this one i will be worried.

[rpietila]

The biggest support from where this rally started was the the ATH of 2011 $32~.
If it breaks this one i will be worried.

What exactly are you going to do when you get worried? Sell all your coins at the bottom?

I think the only sane choice with a long term position is to buy until one of the following happens:
- The network breaks down beyond repair
- Bitcoin hits mainstream.

Everything else is a zero-sum game. Ah well, denominated in fiat even speculators can get return

[just1nmc]

BTC5k coins bought up to $60

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

The biggest support from where this rally started was the the ATH of 2011 $32~.
If it breaks this one i will be worried.

What exactly are you going to do when you get worried? Sell all your coins at the bottom?

I think the only sane choice with a long term position is to buy until one of the following happens:
- The network breaks down beyond repair
- Bitcoin hits mainstream.

Everything else is a zero-sum game. Ah well, denominated in fiat even speculators can get return

Hold ofcourse.
But $32 will be a huge support which means if it gets past that we will see crash #2.

[gizmoh]

Some trades like buying of 5k upto 60, are an attempt to invert the trend, but it seems ineffective. Its not looking good!

[deepceleron]

My first published chart since the crash.

I have a chart if you really want to discount the bubble and project where we might be: