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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1805435 times)
ManBearPig
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April 14, 2013, 01:42:18 PM
 #22941

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

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April 14, 2013, 01:43:41 PM
 #22942

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..
Yeah,I think the DDOS and market manipulation will be there until someone has enough cheap coins to sell high when the price does go up due to Coinlabs opening on May 6th.

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April 14, 2013, 01:56:02 PM
 #22943

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.

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April 14, 2013, 01:57:57 PM
 #22944

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.



+1. I think 3 minutes lag is already intolerable.

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April 14, 2013, 01:59:42 PM
 #22945

True! So far I only really find 1.5 mins tolerable, lol. But often it will die down by itself when it hovers around that range. So maybe 5 minutes max, hehe.
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April 14, 2013, 02:09:00 PM
 #22946

It's a joy to change Bids, Asks and Cancels and they work instantly!

Just like the real world Wink

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rpietila
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April 14, 2013, 04:24:04 PM
 #22947

Check
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April 14, 2013, 04:24:46 PM
 #22948

Noo... am I the first one to write here?  Roll Eyes
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April 14, 2013, 04:26:26 PM
 #22949

Noo... am I the first one to write here?  Roll Eyes

yep, me second after the page-"cool off" ...
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April 14, 2013, 04:26:34 PM
 #22950

Noo... am I the first one to write here?  Roll Eyes
Finally back up.
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April 14, 2013, 04:38:34 PM
 #22951

DDOSSER expect panic on forum unavailability..meh he must be so desperate!!

How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
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April 14, 2013, 04:45:07 PM
 #22952

DDOSSER expect panic on forum unavailability..meh he must be so desperate!!

Why is price not rising after forum is back up?  Roll Eyes
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April 14, 2013, 04:46:26 PM
 #22953

Perhaps what we need instead of exchanges that accept fiat (which is the big problem), have crypto-dollars (and other currencies). Similar to Bitcoin, these would be redeemable directly for dollars on a 1-1 basis (like Gox vouchers possibly?) . These would allow exchanges to be set-up without having to worry about having to process fiat and allow some decent competition between the exchanges.

I can see some issues with this. It would introduce another single point of failure so it would be good to have more than one. However, there would be little point DDOS these servers since they only deal with exchange of fiat to crypto-fiat and with multiple exchanges now more feasible, which is where the price can be manipulated, they become less of a target.

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April 14, 2013, 04:54:32 PM
 #22954

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.



There are other, perhaps better ways to do it. You could throttle orders, limit orders to a narrower window r, my favorite, pay someone a few $$$ to fix the damn algorithm. It has to be doing something really dumb in there like comparing every new order against every existing order or something.

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April 14, 2013, 05:04:11 PM
 #22955

Perhaps what we need instead of exchanges that accept fiat (which is the big problem), have crypto-dollars (and other currencies). Similar to Bitcoin, these would be redeemable directly for dollars on a 1-1 basis (like Gox vouchers possibly?) . These would allow exchanges to be set-up without having to worry about having to process fiat and allow some decent competition between the exchanges.

I can see some issues with this. It would introduce another single point of failure so it would be good to have more than one. However, there would be little point DDOS these servers since they only deal with exchange of fiat to crypto-fiat and with multiple exchanges now more feasible, which is where the price can be manipulated, they become less of a target.

Nice idea, but I think that whoever converts crypto-fiat to plain-fiat will get government-regulated to hell and back. Having said which, to trade nontrivial amounts on Gox we have to submit ID etc. so maybe we would put up with it, or enough of us would to make it work enough to allow lots of exchanges.
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April 14, 2013, 05:09:43 PM
 #22956

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.



There are other, perhaps better ways to do it. You could throttle orders, limit orders to a narrower window r, my favorite, pay someone a few $$$ to fix the damn algorithm. It has to be doing something really dumb in there like comparing every new order against every existing order or something.

Oh for sure, I agree, in my other posts I have been saying that this needs to be a temporary solution. But until they have a real solution, like those that you've mentioned, it is irresponsible to let lag fly up to 50 minutes and hover there for 4 hours like they did yesterday. When the finally started the cooldown killed the lag in 10 minutes.
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April 14, 2013, 05:12:32 PM
 #22957

Perhaps what we need instead of exchanges that accept fiat (which is the big problem), have crypto-dollars (and other currencies). Similar to Bitcoin, these would be redeemable directly for dollars on a 1-1 basis (like Gox vouchers possibly?) . These would allow exchanges to be set-up without having to worry about having to process fiat and allow some decent competition between the exchanges.

I can see some issues with this. It would introduce another single point of failure so it would be good to have more than one. However, there would be little point DDOS these servers since they only deal with exchange of fiat to crypto-fiat and with multiple exchanges now more feasible, which is where the price can be manipulated, they become less of a target.

This is an idea that pops up occasionally in the alternate cryptocurrencies sub forum : Pegged currencies.

Apparently there's all sorts of problems with them.

I think someone needs to form a company, launch a new blockchain and supporting network for processing transactions then limit the minting of new pegged coins to the value of deposits minus a processing fee.

Then they could be moved around freely via a client like Bitcoin and withdrew to a bank account on demand.

In effect you would be creating a bank that handled deposit accounts.

If such a company was launched in a region where the regulations on financial transfers are not so stringent something like this would be really useful.

It would be centrally controlled and not a regular crypto currency but the important thing would be to put infrastructure in place to process large quantities of transfers into and out of the system in a timely manner and avoid as much of this AML bullshit as possible.

Why people need to go through laborious AML procedures is beyond me. If you're transferring money from your own bank account it's already in the system and already logged and tracked by your own government anyway. I could undersand AML regulations for suitcases full of cash but for a bank wire from your own account it doesn't seem to make too much sense.
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April 14, 2013, 05:25:12 PM
 #22958

Check

You are always welcome to send me your checks!  Grin
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April 14, 2013, 05:26:36 PM
 #22959

Nice idea, but I think that whoever converts crypto-fiat to plain-fiat will get government-regulated to hell and back. Having said which, to trade nontrivial amounts on Gox we have to submit ID etc. so maybe we would put up with it, or enough of us would to make it work enough to allow lots of exchanges.

True. But this is likely to happen with exchanges in any case. Probably sooner rather than later. The biggest problem with Bitcoin at the moment is, ironically, fiat. If we can reduce the contact area to as small as possible, it should reduce the drag on the Bitcoin economy.

Perhaps this could be quite easy to do with existing infrastructure even. Consider, you buy a $10 walmart gift card and mail it (or have it delivered to) moneyman X. Moneyman X scratches off the silver panel, verifies that the balance is what is claimed then signs a piece of XML which states that you have deposited $10. The exchanges, after working out they can trust moneyman X credit your account with $ as appropriate. When it comes time to cash out, the exchange informs moneyman X and he pays to the appropriate party (it appears to be much easier to get money out of accounts than in) either in gift cards, check, bank transfer whatever. Of course, moneyman X will be subject to financial regulation but he takes a cut sufficient to make that worthwhile and because he isn't dealing with foreign money or weird new cryptocurrencies, he might possibly have an easier time of things.

Of course, things get a little more complicated if you have moneymen Y and Z in play also but not overly so I would think.

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April 14, 2013, 05:42:29 PM
 #22960



1% variance in the last hour, steady but low volume, 5K wall at $5 above, 5K wall at $5 below.

Well this is cosy isn't it? Smiley

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