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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651140 times)
dani
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April 14, 2013, 08:14:44 PM
 #22981

whats going on right now? All for a sudden we lost ~$8 and it looks like we go a little DEEPER... Cheesy

92.90 @gox

Hai
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just1nmc
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April 14, 2013, 08:16:55 PM
 #22982

whats going on right now? All for a sudden we lost ~$8 and it looks like we go a little DEEPER... Cheesy

92.90 @gox

Nothing new, just some selling. Can't really expect it to just sit at $100 forever without someone making a move.
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April 14, 2013, 08:18:09 PM
 #22983

Quickly reposting this here, figured somebody might want it.


CoinLenders - Bitcoin Bank Script / Demo
1v.io/kazu - 15ccW7m6RxDFWEKc3P1NdwWpX1N1pU7gZ8
silvermario
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April 14, 2013, 08:23:03 PM
 #22984



looks familiar?

pretty close
rpietila
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April 14, 2013, 08:31:17 PM
 #22985

can someone explain why the bid sum went down drastically quite a while before the drop with price being stable and even rising?
MtGox allowed cancelling active orders, but no placement of new orders during the 12hr "market cooldown".

Oh. What any exchange anywhere in the real world would have done, would be along these lines:
- Close trading for at least 24 hours to enable notification to all account holders
- Erase all existing orders
- Allow placement of new orders
- Execute an "opening", where all the bids and asks are matched against each other, and the market cleared with one price (and probably huge volume as all market orders and a good number of limit bids and asks would be instantly executed). Only after this the open trading would commence.

It is sad that they seem to have no experience whatsoever concerning the basics on how to run an exchange.

Come-from-Beyond
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April 14, 2013, 08:43:21 PM
 #22986

It is sad that they seem to have no experience whatsoever concerning the basics on how to run an exchange.

They do, for about 3 years, don't they?
molecular
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April 14, 2013, 08:56:35 PM
 #22987

Oh. What any exchange anywhere in the real world would have done, would be along these lines:
- Close trading for at least 24 hours to enable notification to all account holders
- Erase all existing orders
- Allow placement of new orders
- Execute an "opening", where all the bids and asks are matched against each other, and the market cleared with one price (and probably huge volume as all market orders and a good number of limit bids and asks would be instantly executed). Only after this the open trading would commence.

How is that "one price" determined?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
kiko
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April 14, 2013, 09:10:33 PM
 #22988

Oh. What any exchange anywhere in the real world would have done, would be along these lines:
- Close trading for at least 24 hours to enable notification to all account holders
- Erase all existing orders
- Allow placement of new orders
- Execute an "opening", where all the bids and asks are matched against each other, and the market cleared with one price (and probably huge volume as all market orders and a good number of limit bids and asks would be instantly executed). Only after this the open trading would commence.

How is that "one price" determined?

One can place an order or cancel it but nothing gets matched until the bell rings, so to speak. Conservative orders jostle around a while without executing, eventually the spread narrows. It's not so much 'one price', just that anyone bidding more than they visibly need to is a fool.
NamelessOne
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April 14, 2013, 09:27:41 PM
 #22989

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.
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April 14, 2013, 09:29:39 PM
 #22990

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 14, 2013, 09:57:58 PM
 #22991

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

I put his static on ignore and have been happier ever since. Just sayin'.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130982.msg1401799#msg1401799 - [BTC-TC]bASIC-MINING
http://forum.litecoin.net/index.php/topic,886.0.html - [LTC-GLOBAL]LTC-DMF
http://forum.litecoin.net/index.php/topic,817.msg3279.html#msg3279 - [CRYPTOSTOCKS]AGLTC

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ElectricMucus
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April 14, 2013, 10:05:31 PM
 #22992

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

Now, why would you think that, I am merely expressing my opinion. That is to say once a trend has been established it is very difficult to break it.
That is also, that I have, despite my bearish attitude never spoke out against the uptrend after we broke the previous ATH until the bubble popped.

In a sense, what I am saying is that the selloff will overshoot too.

PS: Don't listen to the haters, I realize I am not the most agreeable person around here, but I recognize logic if I encounter it.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 14, 2013, 10:06:06 PM
 #22993

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

Now, why would you think that, I am merely expressing my opinion. That is to say once a trend has been established it is very difficult to break it.
That is also, that I have, despite my bearish attitude never spoke out against the uptrend after we broke the previous ATH until the bubble popped.

In a sense, what I am saying is that the selloff will overshoot too.

That is certainly a possibility...

Consider this: Current "market valuation" is > 1.2 Billion USD.

There is roughly $10M between us, now, and 30 USD/BTC.

All it takes is for one thousand people to claim $10K each,
or for 10 000 people claim $1000 each, we land < 30 USD /BTC.

Even worse, there is but $13M between us, now, and $0.0001/BTC.

Most of you have never seen Bitcoin in a bear market.

Better hope Gox doesn't lag out again.
ElectricMucus
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April 14, 2013, 10:08:37 PM
 #22994

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

Now, why would you think that, I am merely expressing my opinion. That is to say once a trend has been established it is very difficult to break it.
That is also, that I have, despite my bearish attitude never spoke out against the uptrend after we broke the previous ATH until the bubble popped.

In a sense, what I am saying is that the selloff will overshoot too.

That is certainly a possibility...

Consider this: Current "market valuation" is > 1.2 Billion USD.

There is roughly $10M between us, now, and 30 USD/BTC.

All it takes is for one thousand people to claim $10K each,
or for 10 000 people claim $1000 each, we land < 30 USD /BTC.

Even worse, there is but $13M between us, now, and $0.0001/BTC.

tl;dr: Better hope Gox doesn't lag out again.


Yeah, I realize this, but I think the majority will wait till we hit in the range of the previous ATH at least before we see any real buying again.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
zedicus
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April 14, 2013, 10:17:00 PM
 #22995

Two things. I went to bed last night shortly after the weird low trading levels lag on mtgox started. As expected I woke up this morning to see a moderate dip and recovery. I don't feel like trawling through pages and pages of this thread, but from what little I've checked I deduced that we had (several?) market cooldowns during the past 24h. Have we heard any explanation from gox? Anything else I missed?

Secondly, take a look at this graph.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoins%22%2C%20%22buy%20bitcoin%22&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
The queries for both "buy bitcoin" and "buy bitcoins" peaked on Thursday the 11th, the day after the crash. The volume was also high on the day of the crash, but it is difficult to tell how many of these queries were from people who had not yet heard about the crash. These two days saw an almost 40% higher query volume than the previous peak on April the 3rd. This suggests that the anecdotes we've had on here about people who previously thought they had missed the boat rushing to get in after the crash are not isolated incidents. I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.
 


They've also begun to restrict the number of orders each account can place.




Someone got to gox about the bots?!!  Grin Grin Grin

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Wekkel
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April 14, 2013, 10:17:21 PM
 #22996

Yeah, I realize this, but I think the majority will wait till we hit in the range of the previous ATH at least before we see any real buying again.

It's better to already have the fiat orders in place. Once Gox starts lagging, it wont be accessible anymore.

PS. Ignoring someone may also keep you from reading a good idea in a next post. Why would you want to miss out on that?

Like this post? you can tip me (BTC) 1LGi2DMhectdFSkBid5srrnHk8WHgD3V1d or very WoW (Doge) D9p6FZQb1sKkq9hApy4tnjSduYfdnc74bb
thoughtfan
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April 14, 2013, 10:21:36 PM
 #22997

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

I put his static on ignore and have been happier ever since. Just sayin'.
I can't believe I'm sticking up for EM but it is the place for speculation and I'm beginning to think maybe sometimes even if it is a load of bollocks (and it's not like we bulls never come up with any ludicrous hypotheses) it may be a little healthier to get some opposing opinion into the mix now and again?  Dunno!

Nothing has changed in my reasoning behind my assessment of the probability of Bitcoin's future (which I wrote about a few pages back) and nothing has changed in terms of my strategy (simply hold till bright future, till zero or till something better comes along).  I always acknowledged and insisted to everybody I talked about Bitcoin with that it could go to nothing and that for it to be used as a transfer of wealth it doesn't matter whether its price is a penny or a million.  I knew and accepted the risk that I could lose everything I have put into it.  Yet at some level I had convinced myself that it wouldn't happen.  Now that possibility feels more real which I think gives me a more open perspective to listen to without laughing at the bears (I'm talking those with something constructive to say, not the trollers).

It's funny writing this seems almost like a confession Wink which is actually quite funny.  Anyhow, talking of throwing things into the mix if anyone has any thoughts on this please fire away Smiley

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
blueberry
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April 14, 2013, 10:48:08 PM
 #22998

I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.

At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160.
All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price.

you really do talk a lot of nonsense

Now, why would you think that, I am merely expressing my opinion. That is to say once a trend has been established it is very difficult to break it.
That is also, that I have, despite my bearish attitude never spoke out against the uptrend after we broke the previous ATH until the bubble popped.

In a sense, what I am saying is that the selloff will overshoot too.

That is certainly a possibility...

Consider this: Current "market valuation" is > 1.2 Billion USD.

There is roughly $10M between us, now, and 30 USD/BTC.

All it takes is for one thousand people to claim $10K each,
or for 10 000 people claim $1000 each, we land < 30 USD /BTC.

Even worse, there is but $13M between us, now, and $0.0001/BTC.

tl;dr: Better hope Gox doesn't lag out again.

There is A LOT of money sitting on exchanges and bank accounts waiting to buy in at a lower price that are not reflected in the bid side of the order book. People who wish to buy lower tend to wait for the price to get close to or at their buy price before they place the order, especially large investors. If I wanted to buy say 10,000 coins @ $70, I would not place the order now because that would create a visible demand which would have the effect of pushing the price up as other investors bid above my wall. The best strategy therefore would be to wait for the price to drop to $70 and buy in smaller increments. Lets say there are 10 people wanting to buy 10,000 coins each @ $70. That alone is $7 million of demand not reflected in the bid side of the orderbook.

Also Mt. Gox is only one exhchage (albeit the largest). All the other exchanges combined have millions of dollars in visible demand and don't forget all the off exchange, cash and OTC demand and all the new demand that will be coming in shortly from the recent global media attention.
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April 14, 2013, 10:57:43 PM
 #22999

5k sale, bots fight to keep it over 90

narousberg
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April 14, 2013, 11:08:21 PM
 #23000

Fear phase begin

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