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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1805440 times)
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April 15, 2013, 10:49:32 PM
 #23281

It's frustrating to think how much momentum/feedback there is in the pricing of Bitcoin. When it's going down, miners are selling --> downward pressure --> holders sell waiting for a bottom --> downward pressure -->  would be buyers hold off --> supply expands like crazy. Then on the way up everyone is doing the opposite. I think this crash is going to essentially be an accelerated version of 2011. Sub-$50 pricing , wait for the price to stabilize for 1-3 weeks, then as soon as it starts moving back up for 5-7 consecutive days, the money will come pouring back in. My guess is 1-2 months from now.

this is not far from what I've been thinking. A fast-forward version of 2011. about 10-20 times faster.

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April 15, 2013, 10:50:47 PM
 #23282


Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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April 15, 2013, 10:52:10 PM
 #23283

It's frustrating to think how much momentum/feedback there is in the pricing of Bitcoin. When it's going down, miners are selling --> downward pressure --> holders sell waiting for a bottom --> downward pressure -->  would be buyers hold off --> supply expands like crazy. Then on the way up everyone is doing the opposite. I think this crash is going to essentially be an accelerated version of 2011. Sub-$50 pricing , wait for the price to stabilize for 1-3 weeks, then as soon as it starts moving back up for 5-7 consecutive days, the money will come pouring back in. My guess is 1-2 months from now.

this is not far from what I've been thinking. A fast-forward version of 2011. about 10-20 times faster.

My thoughts exactly. Which means we'll make alot of money if it happens  Grin
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April 15, 2013, 10:52:41 PM
 #23284

If this insanity continues, at some point Mark Karpeles will have all the money.

EDIT: oh hey: no lag.. why? no ddos?


At this point, I think everyone should start accepting the following identity:  Bitcoins = Kerpeles
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April 15, 2013, 10:53:02 PM
 #23285

less sale orders now, might not go much down anymore

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April 15, 2013, 10:56:28 PM
 #23286

It's frustrating to think how much momentum/feedback there is in the pricing of Bitcoin. When it's going down, miners are selling --> downward pressure --> holders sell waiting for a bottom --> downward pressure -->  would be buyers hold off --> supply expands like crazy. Then on the way up everyone is doing the opposite. I think this crash is going to essentially be an accelerated version of 2011. Sub-$50 pricing , wait for the price to stabilize for 1-3 weeks, then as soon as it starts moving back up for 5-7 consecutive days, the money will come pouring back in. My guess is 1-2 months from now.

this is not far from what I've been thinking. A fast-forward version of 2011. about 10-20 times faster.

If this does happen, would be interesting to see whether the trend of larger bubbles & faster crashes is the mechanism that gets Bitcoin to true mainstream adoption. At some point the volatility would have to just dissipate as adoption reaches its saturation point.
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April 15, 2013, 10:57:57 PM
 #23287

It's frustrating to think how much momentum/feedback there is in the pricing of Bitcoin. When it's going down, miners are selling --> downward pressure --> holders sell waiting for a bottom --> downward pressure -->  would be buyers hold off --> supply expands like crazy. Then on the way up everyone is doing the opposite. I think this crash is going to essentially be an accelerated version of 2011. Sub-$50 pricing , wait for the price to stabilize for 1-3 weeks, then as soon as it starts moving back up for 5-7 consecutive days, the money will come pouring back in. My guess is 1-2 months from now.

this is not far from what I've been thinking. A fast-forward version of 2011. about 10-20 times faster.

If this does happen, would be interesting to see whether the trend of larger bubbles & faster crashes is the mechanism that gets Bitcoin to true mainstream adoption. At some point the volatility would have to just dissipate as adoption reaches its saturation point.

It's the only way i can see it.
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April 15, 2013, 11:01:29 PM
 #23288

Sorry for double post but unless they're just getting home or taking the time to confirm the wallet transfer to Gox, I can't believe people are selling in the $70s.  Any chart shows there's been a decline for two hours already.  Do people not like their profit?  If they were desperate to cash out, IDK, $90 seems better than $70.  Maybe it's just me.


Remember, not all sells are people cashing out at a miserable loss.

-Sold at $88
-Bought at 86
-Sold at 87
-Bought at 84
-Sold at 85
-Bought at 81
-Bought at 80
-Sold at 83
-Sold at 81
-Bought at 78
-Sold at 81

And so on and so forth. Some people have the patience and skillz to sit there and make money on the minute-to-minute. They're the "evil speculators" that our stereotyping occupy-wall-st bear crowd likes to complain about.
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April 15, 2013, 11:05:17 PM
 #23289

It's frustrating to think how much momentum/feedback there is in the pricing of Bitcoin. When it's going down, miners are selling --> downward pressure --> holders sell waiting for a bottom --> downward pressure -->  would be buyers hold off --> supply expands like crazy. Then on the way up everyone is doing the opposite. I think this crash is going to essentially be an accelerated version of 2011. Sub-$50 pricing , wait for the price to stabilize for 1-3 weeks, then as soon as it starts moving back up for 5-7 consecutive days, the money will come pouring back in. My guess is 1-2 months from now.

this is not far from what I've been thinking. A fast-forward version of 2011. about 10-20 times faster.

If this does happen, would be interesting to see whether the trend of larger bubbles & faster crashes is the mechanism that gets Bitcoin to true mainstream adoption. At some point the volatility would have to just dissipate as adoption reaches its saturation point.

It's the only way i can see it.

if thing happen faster as time passes
then we should have a price graph with the price in log scale and the time in e^(1/t)  scale
 Wink

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April 15, 2013, 11:07:17 PM
 #23290

Looks like that was the bottom (for now).


Help pay for my BTCCharts.com subscription: 1DTannerQHQD7qjSmA3abLQaDkVFLnBGma
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April 15, 2013, 11:08:21 PM
 #23291

Looks like that was the bottom (for now).



See you at 100 in the morning. (EDIT: I hope)

more or less retired.
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April 15, 2013, 11:14:59 PM
 #23292

Seems to be fixing. I'd have bought in if I had any free cash  Lips sealed

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April 15, 2013, 11:20:57 PM
 #23293

Its not over yet..still some trigger selling

How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
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April 15, 2013, 11:27:32 PM
 #23294

if thing happen faster as time passes
then we should have a price graph with the price in log scale and the time in e^(1/t)  scale

You are a genious!
I'm no math whiz but basically that function would do the same for the time on the x axis as the log scale does for price on the y axis?

I'd like to see a chart of USD/BTC with a 30-day rolling average line, except with the time, as you suggested, e^(1/t). That would be the ultimate chart porn!

Plus it would piss off the bears. See, bears hate log scales, because "regular old" integer scales overemphasize recent price events but de-emphasize past events. So, the 2011 jump looks like a blip and the current crash looks like a train wreck of biblical proportions. Log scales treat a rise from 1 to 2 the same as 100 to 200, getting rid of the psychological barriers. And bears LOVE psychological barriers.

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April 15, 2013, 11:38:49 PM
 #23295

if thing happen faster as time passes
then we should have a price graph with the price in log scale and the time in e^(1/t)  scale

You are a genious!
I'm no math whiz but basically that function would do the same for the time on the x axis as the log scale does for price on the y axis?

I'd like to see a chart of USD/BTC with a 30-day rolling average line, except with the time, as you suggested, e^(1/t). That would be the ultimate chart porn!

Plus it would piss off the bears. See, bears hate log scales, because "regular old" integer scales overemphasize recent price events but de-emphasize past events. So, the 2011 jump looks like a blip and the current crash looks like a train wreck of biblical proportions. Log scales treat a rise from 1 to 2 the same as 100 to 200, getting rid of the psychological barriers. And bears LOVE psychological barriers.



e^(1/t) does the exact opposite of log   it "squeezes" the  bottom instead of the top (log) of the axis 
Actually I think for it to work  the x axis should be  t*e^(1/t) , t>1 , but I don't have the time to do a graph
maybe someone else can
 

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April 15, 2013, 11:57:09 PM
 #23296

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April 16, 2013, 12:10:12 AM
 #23297

I guess that's it for now, I don't think it will go below 80 next few hours

Lol, as soon as I wrote it some sale orders appeared

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April 16, 2013, 12:13:23 AM
 #23298

come on bulls, buy it up to 90.
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April 16, 2013, 12:22:17 AM
 #23299

Sorry for double post but unless they're just getting home or taking the time to confirm the wallet transfer to Gox, I can't believe people are selling in the $70s.  Any chart shows there's been a decline for two hours already.  Do people not like their profit?  If they were desperate to cash out, IDK, $90 seems better than $70.  Maybe it's just me.


Remember, not all sells are people cashing out at a miserable loss.

-Sold at $88
-Bought at 86
-Sold at 87
-Bought at 84
-Sold at 85
-Bought at 81
-Bought at 80
-Sold at 83
-Sold at 81
-Bought at 78
-Sold at 81

And so on and so forth. Some people have the patience and skillz to sit there and make money on the minute-to-minute. They're the "evil speculators" that our stereotyping occupy-wall-st bear crowd likes to complain about.

Oh no, I totally agree.  With the fees in place though, it's a pain to cycle funds at anything less than $2 difference.  They'd be earning profit but I'd imagine could also risk getting burned.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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April 16, 2013, 12:36:57 AM
 #23300

Sorry for double post but unless they're just getting home or taking the time to confirm the wallet transfer to Gox, I can't believe people are selling in the $70s.  Any chart shows there's been a decline for two hours already.  Do people not like their profit?  If they were desperate to cash out, IDK, $90 seems better than $70.  Maybe it's just me.


Remember, not all sells are people cashing out at a miserable loss.

-Sold at $88
-Bought at 86
-Sold at 87
-Bought at 84
-Sold at 85
-Bought at 81
-Bought at 80
-Sold at 83
-Sold at 81
-Bought at 78
-Sold at 81

And so on and so forth. Some people have the patience and skillz to sit there and make money on the minute-to-minute. They're the "evil speculators" that our stereotyping occupy-wall-st bear crowd likes to complain about.

Oh no, I totally agree.  With the fees in place though, it's a pain to cycle funds at anything less than $2 difference.  They'd be earning profit but I'd imagine could also risk getting burned.

Having watched these charts for months now doing nothing but holding I was today toying with the idea of doing some trading but after a couple of times putting ask orders on that didn't quite hit before it went tumbling down again in the end decided to stay out of trading and once again to simply stick with my holding strategy.

It had taken me a while after we didn't get an immediate recovery after the big drop to realise the trading conditions since fall within my parameters for the first time (for me) .  Contrary to many here what I would be trading with would be my bitcoin because all the fiat I am prepared to risk on Bitcoin is already all in.  So the advice I was once given 'never trade into a falling market' means in the normal bitcoin bull market I would be trading into a falling fiat market.  Here though what we've had is a rising fiat relative to bitcoin.  But in the end I do believe it will turn around sometime and with a reasonable possibility of it happening quite quickly and sharply.  The risk associated with that, combined with my inexperience means I'll likely tomorrow return the temporary bitcoin funding I put on mtgox back to my wallet and go back to watching:)

Well done to all of you who are doing well from it and good luck to those playing it now.  I know by just holding I am contributing to the scarcity but I also appreciate what you guys are doing for liquidity Smiley

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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