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Author Topic: SafeDICE.com ★ Bitcoin Dice ★ Monero ★ 0.5% Edge ★ Fast Cashout ★ Since 2014  (Read 275494 times)
wormat22
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April 04, 2016, 05:11:28 PM
 #2021

SD down for anyone else?
Yup it's down for me, I wonder why.

Back up now.
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wormat22
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April 06, 2016, 02:06:52 AM
 #2022

Damn...115 BTC win...there goes the bankroll.
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April 06, 2016, 03:03:52 AM
 #2023

Seems like dynamic house edge isn't that Safe. Damnnn. Total invested amount from BTC150 to BTC35. There goes my holiday funds.


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April 06, 2016, 03:25:57 AM
 #2024

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/
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April 06, 2016, 03:27:15 AM
 #2025

I wonder if he meant to switch from x2 to 2% like that, was it perhaps a lucky mix up in the odds box? Anyway - congrats !!
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April 06, 2016, 03:30:26 AM
 #2026

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/

Well prior the bet the BR was 150, so they should have 150. Cold wallet is 111, so it seems normal/possible to have 39 in hot and intermediate wallets. But yeh hope SD checks that bet, look if it was all good, process withdrawal and hopefully top up cold wallet just a bit too - to show everything is okay.

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April 06, 2016, 03:33:34 AM
 #2027

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/

Well prior the bet the BR was 150, so they should have 150. Cold wallet is 111, so it seems normal/possible to have 39 in hot and intermediate wallets. But yeh hope SD checks that bet, look if it was all good, process withdrawal and hopefully top up cold wallet just a bit too - to show everything is okay.

The user won 127 BTC total (he hit a few 3 BTC shots after that big win), the house BR is at over 25 BTC. That means liabilities (excluding any other players) should exceed 150 regardless
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April 06, 2016, 03:43:32 AM
 #2028

Yes..


I agree, I am just saying that it's pretty likely they have at least some coins on hot/intermediate/deposit wallets, just saying before everyone panics or something. Obviously we would have to wait for SafeDice to process everything and show it's all good (well that's what I expect at least.)

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April 06, 2016, 04:09:48 AM
 #2029

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/

Well prior the bet the BR was 150, so they should have 150. Cold wallet is 111, so it seems normal/possible to have 39 in hot and intermediate wallets. But yeh hope SD checks that bet, look if it was all good, process withdrawal and hopefully top up cold wallet just a bit too - to show everything is okay.

Totally the case lol (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1370925.0).

https://safedice.com/accounts/9746 --> 2586631 small bets and then suddenly goes all-in for 50x and hits first few rolls

Safe my ass!
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April 06, 2016, 04:45:51 AM
 #2030

I'm fairly new to the dice community and I'm sure many of you are more knowledgeable than me but aren't we overreacting here?

The public cold wallets never 100% covered the site bankroll to begin with so it was always assumed the difference were in hot wallets for quick processing. So if the site wasn't insolvent before, they wouldn't be now. Nothing has changed.

I hope this doesn't bite me in the ass for pointing out but Safedice always came off as a legitimate business. If it's plan was to operate under shady business practices, they would never have offered multiples of the kelly feature reducing counterparty risk.

The site has been around for 1.5 years without any major issues. And finally, if push came to shove, and the site was in fact insolvent by ~50 coins, you'd have to think it's +ev for the owners to cover the difference or at least sell off the site to pay everyone back right? I don't know how much these sites are worth but I'd assume they'd be valued at >50 coins easily.

As a player or investor who has holdings on the site, the last thing you want to do is overreact on forums or in the site chat and wrongfully give this site a negative reputation. That is the worst thing that could happen both short and long term. It's only been 6 hours. I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt (for now).

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April 06, 2016, 05:41:01 AM
 #2031

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/

Well prior the bet the BR was 150, so they should have 150. Cold wallet is 111, so it seems normal/possible to have 39 in hot and intermediate wallets. But yeh hope SD checks that bet, look if it was all good, process withdrawal and hopefully top up cold wallet just a bit too - to show everything is okay.

Totally the case lol (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1370925.0).

https://safedice.com/accounts/9746 --> 2586631 small bets and then suddenly goes all-in for 50x and hits first few rolls

Safe my ass!

I could be sleptical about this but betting huge at such multiplier is kinda unreal and not to mention that to have won it after only few bets rolling is kinda weird. Could there be some exploit or something like the primedice case where user could see the future rolls in safedice? Im not accusing them, im just skeptical both of that user got real lucky with their rolls
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April 06, 2016, 05:57:55 AM
 #2032

SafeDice did have some downtime earlier this week.. Could've been this guy figuring his way in
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April 06, 2016, 06:11:07 AM
 #2033

SafeDice is now insolvent according to their cold address (https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/address/1SD1ciWyeDNf26YoAUjSsifQZK1ShFJ2s) :/

Well prior the bet the BR was 150, so they should have 150. Cold wallet is 111, so it seems normal/possible to have 39 in hot and intermediate wallets. But yeh hope SD checks that bet, look if it was all good, process withdrawal and hopefully top up cold wallet just a bit too - to show everything is okay.

Totally the case lol (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1370925.0).

https://safedice.com/accounts/9746 --> 2586631 small bets and then suddenly goes all-in for 50x and hits first few rolls

Safe my ass!

I could be sleptical about this but betting huge at such multiplier is kinda unreal and not to mention that to have won it after only few bets rolling is kinda weird. Could there be some exploit or something like the primedice case where user could see the future rolls in safedice? Im not accusing them, im just skeptical both of that user got real lucky with their rolls

That's some weird rolls indeed.  The way he multiplied on loss (x2) for losses on such a high multiplier with that amounts it's not something you would expect to see.  This is either a crazy lucky and ballsy player or some exploit in place. Either way I hope safe dice can survive this.

 

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April 06, 2016, 06:22:39 AM
 #2034

Obviously the idea is that he accidentally bet 2% instead of 2x. A mistake that does really happen, the classic "oops wrong text input". Still you could speculate if it's a real player, haxor, owner, etc of course.

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April 06, 2016, 08:42:35 AM
 #2035

Seems like dynamic house edge isn't that Safe. Damnnn. Total invested amount from BTC150 to BTC35. There goes my holiday funds.



Sweet Jesus! That's one epic mistake (2% instead of 2x).

Let's see what the site owner will do. He must have a thought in a back of his head just to say 'f**k this' and disappear with funds. But if he lets the player withdraw without hassle, that would give SD a lot of reputation/credibility points. Although they probably should think about capping the max profit at some reasonable level to avoid things like that in the future.


The public cold wallets never 100% covered the site bankroll to begin with so it was always assumed the difference were in hot wallets for quick processing. So if the site wasn't insolvent before, they wouldn't be now. Nothing has changed.
...

Yes. The only thing in question is how much is in hot wallet(s).

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April 06, 2016, 09:58:01 AM
 #2036

Seems like dynamic house edge isn't that Safe. Damnnn. Total invested amount from BTC150 to BTC35. There goes my holiday funds.



Sweet Jesus! That's one epic mistake (2% instead of 2x).

Let's see what the site owner will do. He must have a thought in a back of his head just to say 'f**k this' and disappear with funds. But if he lets the player withdraw without hassle, that would give SD a lot of reputation/credibility points. Although they probably should think about capping the max profit at some reasonable level to avoid things like that in the future.


The public cold wallets never 100% covered the site bankroll to begin with so it was always assumed the difference were in hot wallets for quick processing. So if the site wasn't insolvent before, they wouldn't be now. Nothing has changed.
...

Yes. The only thing in question is how much is in hot wallet(s).


Remember that the max profit is set by the investors and how much they risk. One thing that bothers me is that even if everyone on the site had their risk set to 10 kelly, max bet should not have been this high.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but 10 kelly means I'm willing to risk 10% of my bankroll on a single bet. So how was it possible that the max profit was nearly 95% of the actual bankroll? there might be some trickery with the variable edge at play here that i'm forgetting about

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April 06, 2016, 10:03:59 AM
 #2037

Remember that the max profit is set by the investors and how much they risk. One thing that bothers me is that even if everyone on the site had their risk set to 10 kelly, max bet should not have been this high.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but 10 kelly means I'm willing to risk 10% of my bankroll on a single bet. So how was it possible that the max profit was nearly 95% of the actual bankroll? there might be some trickery with the variable edge at play here that i'm forgetting about

Max profit = kelly * HE.

Normally (on most sites) HE is 1% so we always just assume 10x kelly is 10% of your BR. However in this case the bet was 8% HE which means 80% of BR was risked.



(Obviously afterwards this was/is way too risky.)

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April 06, 2016, 12:46:24 PM
 #2038

Seems like dynamic house edge isn't that Safe. Damnnn. Total invested amount from BTC150 to BTC35. There goes my holiday funds.



Sweet Jesus! That's one epic mistake (2% instead of 2x).

Let's see what the site owner will do. He must have a thought in a back of his head just to say 'f**k this' and disappear with funds. But if he lets the player withdraw without hassle, that would give SD a lot of reputation/credibility points. Although they probably should think about capping the max profit at some reasonable level to avoid things like that in the future.


The public cold wallets never 100% covered the site bankroll to begin with so it was always assumed the difference were in hot wallets for quick processing. So if the site wasn't insolvent before, they wouldn't be now. Nothing has changed.
...

Yes. The only thing in question is how much is in hot wallet(s).


This is what I talked few months ago, just one user can drain almost whole bankroll with one hit.
Even if it was misstake, congratulations huggermugger on this epic win!

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April 06, 2016, 01:09:20 PM
 #2039

i don't see safedice paying for this win. They will claim they were hacked or they'll close down the site.
But, i truly hope i'm wrong.
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April 06, 2016, 01:12:34 PM
 #2040

...
This is what I talked few months ago, just one user can drain almost whole bankroll with one hit.
Even if it was misstake, congratulations huggermugger on this epic win!

I'm pretty sure that was a very lucky mistake. No one would willingly bet that much on such odds, even if drunk. And I don't think it was an exploit, if he was aware of any bug, he would take advantage of it differently, probably by making of series of smaller bets at better odds (and with 0.5% HE) to make it look viable.

It's just one of those freak accidents, proving that Murphy's law is real ("Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong").
It's easy to judge SD afterwards, but frankly, if I knew in advance that there will be a guy betting big at 2% chance using 2x martingale - I'd probably invest all-in against him.

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