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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3885604 times)
HorseRider
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March 20, 2013, 07:12:30 AM
 #2421

According to ngzhang, Avalon won't finish Batch#2 shipping until the end of May. And the optimistic guidance of the future production rate is 1500 units per month. The Batch #3 will sell at higher price than Batch #2, which has not decided yet and is based on ROI.

So,  Happy mining, ASICMINER!

I have 250 ASICMINER shares for sale at 2 BTC each. I know this ask is much higher than the market price, which I think is pretty under valued so I am waiting here at 2BTC per share. Interested buyer please PM me.

16SvwJtQET7mkHZFFbJpgPaDA1Pxtmbm5P
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TradeFortress 🏕
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March 20, 2013, 07:25:06 AM
 #2422

Lets look at another angle of this, What about the next reward halving? It is supposed to cut the fair value by half for ASICMINER and half its dividends.

You could argue that BTC price would double so it is the same but that also means that if you sold your shares just before the halving and its effect. You sacrifice the future divalents to DOUBLE the worth of your shares!

What do you think guys?

Err, that isn't scheduled to happen until 2017, so not worth considering.

Not worth considering? It absolutely is.
2016

OK Nov 25th, 2016 as per https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining

Between now and then we have:
1) the upcoming transition of almost the entire network from GPU mining to 1st gen ASIC mining.
2) At least one perhaps more transitions to newer generation fo ASIC mining hardware.

How Friedcat handles these transitions, (especially the first one) as opposed to the competition, is going to have a much bigger impact on the daily price of ASICMINER shares than an event that is approximately 1330 days in the future. We have no way of knowing if ASICMINER will still exist, or be the biggest fish in the mining sea.

-helixone
The block reward isn't something that is going to happen or not happen - mining rewards will be cut in half. It's something you look at when considering the future revenues, and just because it's in 2016 doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

It's very hard to say what the mining sector will look like in a few years, but block reward halving matter and shouldn't be ignored.

So should we be considering that all bitcoins will have been mined by 2033 and will have to transition to a transaction based incentive model?

I say no, because the profitability of an investment in ASICMINER today will largely be impacted by how quickly Friedcat brings the next 50+ TH online, as opposed to if and when BFL can ship their upcoming production run of ASIC mining gear.
There's a difference between 2016 and 2033.

The profitability of ASICMINER today, like you said, depends on the other ASIC manufacturers and ASICMINER's deployment. The profitability of ASICMINER in 3 years is directly impacted by the block reward halving.
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March 20, 2013, 07:40:53 AM
Last edit: March 20, 2013, 11:48:30 AM by memvola
 #2423

The profitability of ASICMINER today, like you said, depends on the other ASIC manufacturers and ASICMINER's deployment. The profitability of ASICMINER in 3 years is directly impacted by the block reward halving.

Maybe not "not worth considering" as helixone put it, but there are far too many uncertainties to make a healthy assessment. Even by 2016, fees could begin to compensate for the missing reward, depending the block size scheme and mining market's evolution.

ETA: I just had a dream where I received a card from Bitfountain. No heatsink, and the connector was shorter than PCI, but longer than PCIe x 1. The package was being returned to an address in the States because of a taxation issue but dropped in an apartment anyway. I knew which apartment because SebastianJu sent me a photo of the postman holding the package. I was suspicious of SebastianJu, but he had a convincing explanation. Meanwhile friedcat was suspicious about me because this was all happening in the wrong country. Cool
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March 20, 2013, 09:07:35 AM
 #2424

one correction, if I may, since its based in China I believe the bill is in CNY.

my bad Smiley

Mausini: your thought experiment merely shows their valuation would decrease a lot faster if their operating costs were a fixed amount of BTC. It does not show their valuation would increase if the costs are paid in USD... This is at least the 3rd or 4th time I explain to you their operating costs are only ~3%, that they can't go lower than that, that the USD costs are already as low as they can be, and that in the future this percentage will increase, a lot:

good luck with your high school degree!
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March 20, 2013, 09:16:52 AM
 #2425

It was a discussion and now it is clearly not!. Please take this elsewhere. Thank you very much for your understanding. Both of you.

Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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March 20, 2013, 02:35:28 PM
 #2426

Oh God, just received confirmation satoshis for week 3!
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March 20, 2013, 02:47:30 PM
 #2427

Oh God, just received confirmation satoshis for week 3!

It started confirming pretty quickly this week too.
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March 20, 2013, 03:01:41 PM
 #2428

Dividend already confirmed, thanks friedcat!
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March 20, 2013, 03:02:47 PM
 #2429

0.02599802 BTC/share for week 4, woot!

Week 1: 0.023544/Share
Week 2: 0.019163/Share
Week 3: 0.023786/Share
Week 4: 0.025998/Share
Week 5: ?

That leaves 0.007509 of 0.1 IPO share price to be repaid.

Edit: Corrected payout week and added info
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March 20, 2013, 03:09:47 PM
 #2430

0.02599802 per share received. Thanks!

Novacoin we trust!
https://svcpool.io - PoS мaйнинг для вcex.
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March 20, 2013, 03:16:53 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2013, 03:48:25 PM by ThickAsThieves
 #2431

Friedcat, when is the next upgrade in hashing to be implemented?

Thank you!
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March 20, 2013, 03:26:53 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2013, 04:16:22 PM by SmiGueL
 #2432

Thanks for the coins Friedcat! Grin

Any predictions if (and when) the other 6TH/s will come online?
We're almost 2 weeks on 6TH/s.
If the next speed upgrade is the 50TH/s batch in ~5 weeks please let us know, so we don't have to ask again Tongue

@above:
The +50TH/s is expected at the end of april, if everything goes well

Asicminer Hashrate Charts @ www.asicminercharts.com

Donations BTC: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
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March 20, 2013, 04:05:17 PM
 #2433

Wednesday is sexy day.  Thanks Friedcat and the ASICMINER team!
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March 20, 2013, 04:39:28 PM
 #2434

good luck with your high school degree!

Cut the insults. I stayed polite, you must too. Nothing to reply? Then say nothing.
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March 20, 2013, 04:42:25 PM
 #2435

Another tasty dividend pay day.

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March 20, 2013, 04:51:57 PM
 #2436

Another tasty dividend pay day.

Yes, in fact I think the dividend paid today pretty much covers my initial investment based on the current MTGOX USD/BTC rate so when I add in all the other dividends I've received and the fact that I still have the shares this has turned out to be a very nice investment.

I only wish I purchased more than 124 shares. I had the cash but couldn't find a way to buy BTC back then due to my location.
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March 20, 2013, 05:04:00 PM
 #2437

good luck with your high school degree!

Cut the insults. I stayed polite, you must too. Nothing to reply? Then say nothing.

Ok, I'm sorry. Did not want to insult you. But let's leave it at that.
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March 20, 2013, 05:14:45 PM
 #2438

According to:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=0


How is it possible that:
on 3/11/2013 22:06:14 at difficulty 4367876 we were making just 460.02btc/day

while today:
on 3/20/2013 15:19:12 at diff 4847647 we are making 628.91btc/day?

Any ideas how to explain that? Smiley

amlt.coinfirm.io - The token of compliance by Coinfirm
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March 20, 2013, 05:31:14 PM
 #2439

According to:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=0


How is it possible that:
on 3/11/2013 22:06:14 at difficulty 4367876 we were making just 460.02btc/day

while today:
on 3/20/2013 15:19:12 at diff 4847647 we are making 628.91btc/day?

Any ideas how to explain that? Smiley
how did you derive the daily numbers? You need to be aware that luck is an ingredient in the equation. seeing a 40% variation is nothing unexpected. (although a bit high on a weekly basis)

addendum: see below the post of msm595. The calculation is likely screwed up.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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March 20, 2013, 05:31:43 PM
 #2440

According to:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=0


How is it possible that:
on 3/11/2013 22:06:14 at difficulty 4367876 we were making just 460.02btc/day

while today:
on 3/20/2013 15:19:12 at diff 4847647 we are making 628.91btc/day?

Any ideas how to explain that? Smiley
Based on how the BTC/Day jumps when all the TH/s was moved to BTCGuild, it seems like the BTC/Day calculation was only calculating BTC/day from BTCGuild.

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