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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3890151 times)
keystroke
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February 14, 2013, 10:59:09 PM
 #1621

Up to 17 blocks now.

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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iCEBREAKER
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February 14, 2013, 11:01:30 PM
 #1622

sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares Sad

You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares.

I'm buying JAH for this reason.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAH

Anybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF?



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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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Monster Tent
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February 14, 2013, 11:02:12 PM
 #1623

sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares Sad

You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares.

I'm buying JAH for this reason.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAH

Anybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF?



DMC

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February 14, 2013, 11:03:41 PM
 #1624

You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares.

I'm buying JAH for this reason.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAH

Anybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF?

ohh. that's awesome then!

have some jah shares.


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February 14, 2013, 11:05:52 PM
 #1625

Doesnt ASICMINER have enough hashpower to solo mine for awhile ?

sure does but i can see why they don't want to take the variance risk in the short term..  we have maybe 2-3 weeks here unless BFL blows up

When you control 1/6-1/3 of the network there is no such thing as variance (well technically there is but you get what I mean).

there sure is when we are talking about a couple of weeks,  no such thing in the long term i agree,  but we need guaranteed revenue here... though 2 weeks of great luck on solo would be awesome,  bad luck would be very unfortunate.


That's utter nonsense.

Say "a couple of weeks" means 2 and ASICMINER only achieves 1/6th of the network (the two pessimistic assumptions in your range). Then:

In 2 weeks approximately: 14*24*6=2016 bocks will be mined and for each block we will have a chance of 1/6th, so we are expected to mine 336 blocks on average.

The chance to mine at least 310 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 310) = 93.7 %
The chance to mine at least 300 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 300) = 98.4 %
The chance to mine at least 286 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 286) = 99.9 %

If the chance of success is large enough variance is hardly the bitch we all know her to be Wink
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February 14, 2013, 11:12:08 PM
 #1626

[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike

 Cheesy

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February 14, 2013, 11:15:25 PM
 #1627

[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike

 Cheesy

I don't think even the US is ballsy enough to go all drone striking places in China.
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February 14, 2013, 11:21:01 PM
 #1628

[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike

 Cheesy

I don't think even the US is ballsy enough to go all drone striking places in China.

Thats why they hire mercenaries within china. Or send in some criminals to do it. The Dirty Dozen is my favourite movie  Cheesy

Or 007 from MI5  Smiley

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February 14, 2013, 11:21:58 PM
 #1629

sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares Sad

You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares.

I'm buying JAH for this reason.
https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAH

Anybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF?



DMC

Yeah, each DMC share has a bit under 1/10th of an ASICMINER backing it.  There's some other assets owned by DMC as well but the rest aren't worth much (BTC-Mining which gave its funds away to the scammer AmazingRando and BTCMC which has some assets but is being operated in a very dodgy manner and now claims a lot of its cash was in Bitcoinica despite never having mentioned that before).  Picked up my DMC (for my fund) at about .02 each (meaning profit if ASICMINER worth over .25 - even if all other DMC assets are totally worthless which isn't quite the case) - think cheapest now were about .03 or .035 last time I looked (so you'd need to value ASICMINER over .4 or assign some value to the other DMC holdings to make them worth buying).
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February 14, 2013, 11:29:08 PM
 #1630

Im surprised no one has setup a passthrough yet. I know there is a trading platform coming but in the meantime a pure passthrough might be the way to go.

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February 14, 2013, 11:30:23 PM
 #1631

Hm, when i see the stats at the pool i see that the rate goes down some time and goes back higher some time. It looks to me like they put a board in, it doesnt work fully and they take it out to repair it or something. It would be interesting to know the real hashrate, not the average only.

I wonder if they really work on one board only at a time. Because if they do i wonder if it wouldnt be better to set up all boards first and put it into because most of the chips will work. Then start taking out single boards to repair some errors there.

But maybe i only misunderstand the stats. Maybe they dont take out a board and its only a variance in the hashrate that cant be changed. So that they work on one board at a time to put it in later.

At the end i think they will have the best plan to do this beforehand. Its only a bit strange to watch the stats.

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February 14, 2013, 11:35:40 PM
 #1632

Im surprised no one has setup a passthrough yet. I know there is a trading platform coming but in the meantime a pure passthrough might be the way to go.

Do their rules allow it?  They seem pretty intent on doing everything possible to keep it as a legitimate investment and avoid the kinds of cluster-fucks we've seen in the past due to sketchy intermediaries.  You can almost guarantee that if they allow anyone and everyone to operate a pass-through, someone will eventually scam people who invest in the pass-throughs.

All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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February 14, 2013, 11:38:52 PM
 #1633

Hm, when i see the stats at the pool i see that the rate goes down some time and goes back higher some time. It looks to me like they put a board in, it doesnt work fully and they take it out to repair it or something. It would be interesting to know the real hashrate, not the average only.

I wonder if they really work on one board only at a time. Because if they do i wonder if it wouldnt be better to set up all boards first and put it into because most of the chips will work. Then start taking out single boards to repair some errors there.

But maybe i only misunderstand the stats. Maybe they dont take out a board and its only a variance in the hashrate that cant be changed. So that they work on one board at a time to put it in later.

At the end i think they will have the best plan to do this beforehand. Its only a bit strange to watch the stats.

While I do believe they are tweaking things on their end, you're also going to see hash rate variance.  Since they are mining at diff=1024 currently, you see a few % migration + or - over the course of an hour.  The variable difficulty target rate at BTC Guild normalizes to a less than 1% variance when measured for a 24 hour period for any miner of 1.2 GH/s or higher.

RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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February 14, 2013, 11:58:45 PM
 #1634

Am I the only one refreshing the BTC Guild page and thinking "go little ASIC, go"?  I'm literally cheering on a machine. There is no hope for me.

All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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February 15, 2013, 12:02:35 AM
 #1635

Doesnt ASICMINER have enough hashpower to solo mine for awhile ?

sure does but i can see why they don't want to take the variance risk in the short term..  we have maybe 2-3 weeks here unless BFL blows up

When you control 1/6-1/3 of the network there is no such thing as variance (well technically there is but you get what I mean).

there sure is when we are talking about a couple of weeks,  no such thing in the long term i agree,  but we need guaranteed revenue here... though 2 weeks of great luck on solo would be awesome,  bad luck would be very unfortunate.


That's utter nonsense.

Say "a couple of weeks" means 2 and ASICMINER only achieves 1/6th of the network (the two pessimistic assumptions in your range). Then:

In 2 weeks approximately: 14*24*6=2016 bocks will be mined and for each block we will have a chance of 1/6th, so we are expected to mine 336 blocks on average.

The chance to mine at least 310 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 310) = 93.7 %
The chance to mine at least 300 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 300) = 98.4 %
The chance to mine at least 286 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 286) = 99.9 %

If the chance of success is large enough variance is hardly the bitch we all know her to be Wink
The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea Smiley.
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February 15, 2013, 12:06:24 AM
 #1636

A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER:

Code:
#!/usr/bin/ruby

require 'net/http'
require 'date'

current_hash_rate = 0.00
max_hash_rate = 0.00

loop do
    begin
        url = URI.parse('https://www.btcguild.com//halloffame.php')
        http = Net::HTTP.new(url.host, url.port)
        http.use_ssl = true
        request = Net::HTTP::Get.new(url.path)
        response = http.start {|http| http.request(request)}
        case response
        when Net::HTTPSuccess then source = response.body
        else
            puts "Error in HTTP connection"
            next
        end
        match_string = '<td>67117</td><td style="text-align: right;">'
        source = source[(source.index(match_string) + match_string.length)..-1]
        match_string = ' GH/s</td>'
        source = source[0...(source.index(match_string))]
        source.gsub! ',', ''
        hash_rate = source.to_f
        if hash_rate != current_hash_rate
            max_hash_rate = [max_hash_rate, hash_rate].max
            current_hash_rate = hash_rate
            puts "#{DateTime.now}:\t current #{"%.2f" % current_hash_rate}\t max #{"%.2f" % max_hash_rate}"
        end
        sleep 10.0
    rescue
        next
    end
end

(BFL)^2 < 0
keystroke
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February 15, 2013, 12:11:46 AM
 #1637

A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER:

Code:
#!/usr/bin/ruby

require 'net/http'
require 'date'

current_hash_rate = 0.00
max_hash_rate = 0.00

loop do
    begin
        url = URI.parse('https://www.btcguild.com//halloffame.php')
        http = Net::HTTP.new(url.host, url.port)
        http.use_ssl = true
        request = Net::HTTP::Get.new(url.path)
        response = http.start {|http| http.request(request)}
        case response
        when Net::HTTPSuccess then source = response.body
        else
            puts "Error in HTTP connection"
            next
        end
        match_string = '<td>67117</td><td style="text-align: right;">'
        source = source[(source.index(match_string) + match_string.length)..-1]
        match_string = ' GH/s</td>'
        source = source[0...(source.index(match_string))]
        source.gsub! ',', ''
        hash_rate = source.to_f
        if hash_rate != current_hash_rate
            max_hash_rate = [max_hash_rate, hash_rate].max
            current_hash_rate = hash_rate
            puts "#{DateTime.now}:\t current #{"%.2f" % current_hash_rate}\t max #{"%.2f" % max_hash_rate}"
        end
        sleep 10.0
    rescue
        next
    end
end

Awesome, thanks! Yes I have been cheering them on too  Grin

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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February 15, 2013, 12:13:03 AM
 #1638

A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER:

Thanks for this, although having an issue with it (and no, I don't know what I'm doing)

made file asic.rb and copy/pasted your script..

installed ruby (sudo apt-get install ruby)

chmod +x asic.rb

then ./asic.rb ; it's clearly running and using ~25% of my cpu, but just sits there with a blinking cursor.. what am I doing wrong if you don't mind helping out a newb
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February 15, 2013, 12:19:07 AM
 #1639

The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea Smiley.

Why do you think so? Every block competed for is a binary event with 1/6 chance of success and 5/6 chance of failure. Furthermore every race for a block is independent. That's classical binomial right? Like a runs of flipping a coin (but flipping a coin has success chance of 1/2 instead of 1/6, so more like running a dice Wink)

Convince me I'm wrong and I'll rerun the numbers with Poisson distribution but off to bed now Smiley
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February 15, 2013, 12:22:16 AM
 #1640

The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea Smiley.

Why do you think so? Every block competed for is a binary event with 1/6 chance of success and 5/6 chance of failure. Furthermore every race for a block is independent. That's classical binomial right? Like a runs of flipping a coin (but flipping a coin has success chance of 1/2 instead of 1/6, so more like running a dice Wink)

Convince me I'm wrong and I'll rerun the numbers with Poisson distribution but off to bed now Smiley

Its Poisson.

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