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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3888144 times)
perseus
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April 05, 2013, 01:48:36 AM
 #2861

When is the 50 TH supposed to ramp up?

Mid-April.

I guess I was hoping to get a date from friedcat himself..



Thats what he wrote already in the thread. He said the batch will come early april and will go online till end of april. Problem with it is that there are problems at the moment with deploying because of power and network. Thats because the auction topic came up. Its ok. I believe we will get around 10 months or so of the income the miner would create if asicminer would mine with it themselfes. At least i hope so. If it works out we wont miss much when we sell instead mine ourself with it.

Exactly -- friedcat said mid-April, but that was before he posted again talking about problems with deploying and maybe selling chips. So I'm wondering when the new batch of chips are expected, and when we expect those chips are likely to be plugged into the wall and generating new hashes..
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April 05, 2013, 01:57:51 AM
 #2862

Only one unit per customer would be a nice gesture.
Prevent the formation of monopolies .....

But this is a "free market!" *screeches and throws brick out of glass window*

Or wrong thread...?
The only reason to limit the quantity of units per customer is to prevent the formation of arbitrage markets, which can form in very illiquid markets (people buying at a fixed price and selling it for more). Given that ASIC mining units are short in supply such a policy would make sense.

However, that said, since the units are auctioned off, the prices will reflect the real demand. So no policing required.

As long as the selling process gets maximum price, shareholders should be well-compensated.

But that's the trick - getting maximum price.  There are several theories about how to get the best price (as a seller) in an auction. 

Personally I think the traditional public auction is NOT the best way to get the best price.  In a public auction, the highest bidder doesn't have to bid their maximum value - the just have to bid the second highest bid + minimum increment.   And in a group auction for multiple (say, 500) items, someone who wants the item can bid at price #500+increment (effectively trading a lower bid price for the risk of being outbid just before the auction finishes - similar to being sniped in an ebay auction).  Sniping wouldn't be a thing if people didn't bid #1+increment, but instead bid the maximum they valued the item.

Alternatively, a hidden auction (in theory) forces all bidders to bid their maximum value for their expected utility.  Given high demand for ASIC miners, this could be a good way to maximise the prices received.

The other thing is that time is a factor.  The longer the auction runs, the more time there is to pull in bidders (within reason), but for a good such as this, time value deteriorates the value of the product.

As an asicminer shareholder, it is very much in my interests that the prices for sold hardware are maximised (even though I'd like to buy one myself).

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April 05, 2013, 02:11:54 AM
 #2863

Alternatively, a hidden auction (in theory) forces all bidders to bid their maximum value for their expected utility.  Given high demand for ASIC miners, this could be a good way to maximise the prices received.
Yes. A hidden auction may be the best model for a forum like this under this circumstance. It also circumvents the fear of auction manipulation, where the seller places false bids (which frequently happens on ebay), just to drive the price up.

To accomodate the timing issue, it may be possible to do ONE auction for multiple devices, where people are allowed to submit as many bids as there are devices. And then allocate the devices to the top bidders. In principle this would allow people to "spread" their bidding risk, by e.g. placing bids at different levels. However, given that demand is likely to be significantly higher than supply, I doubt that somebody would want to do that.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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April 05, 2013, 03:28:54 AM
 #2864

Today BTCGuild (a mining pool) hit 48% of the network with some luck. I'd like ASICMINER to spread out their hashing power a bit to maintain a healthy net. With more units coming online and people's habit of choosing the largest pool (see DeepBit) I think it would be wise to take steps sooner rather than later.
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April 05, 2013, 03:52:10 AM
 #2865

Alternatively, a hidden auction (in theory) forces all bidders to bid their maximum value for their expected utility.  Given high demand for ASIC miners, this could be a good way to maximise the prices received.
Yes. A hidden auction may be the best model for a forum like this under this circumstance. It also circumvents the fear of auction manipulation, where the seller places false bids (which frequently happens on ebay), just to drive the price up.

To accomodate the timing issue, it may be possible to do ONE auction for multiple devices, where people are allowed to submit as many bids as there are devices. And then allocate the devices to the top bidders. In principle this would allow people to "spread" their bidding risk, by e.g. placing bids at different levels. However, given that demand is likely to be significantly higher than supply, I doubt that somebody would want to do that.

I like that too.  Making each bid for a single unit removes the problem of counting how many units and having partially-filled orders.  Bids are for 1 unit each, ordered by price and then time.  If you pay by the deadline (each bidder could easily be given their own payment address) then your unit is shipped, if not then your unit goes to the next highest bidder.

Does anyone know what sort of specs we'd be looking at for "a unit", or is it a bit soon still?

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April 05, 2013, 09:26:27 AM
 #2866

Today BTCGuild (a mining pool) hit 48% of the network with some luck. I'd like ASICMINER to spread out their hashing power a bit to maintain a healthy net. With more units coming online and people's habit of choosing the largest pool (see DeepBit) I think it would be wise to take steps sooner rather than later.

Probably a newbie question - even if the pool went past 51%, wouldn't all the users of the pool have to switch to some sort of malicious code?
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April 05, 2013, 09:48:22 AM
 #2867

Today BTCGuild (a mining pool) hit 48% of the network with some luck. I'd like ASICMINER to spread out their hashing power a bit to maintain a healthy net. With more units coming online and people's habit of choosing the largest pool (see DeepBit) I think it would be wise to take steps sooner rather than later.

Probably a newbie question - even if the pool went past 51%, wouldn't all the users of the pool have to switch to some sort of malicious code?

51% control isn't a problem in and of itself.  You are correct, it would take active effort to take advantage of this to allow, for example, double spends.

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April 05, 2013, 10:36:44 AM
 #2868

@friedcat... Can you give a date when the datacenter will be ready so that deployment can move on and can you give a date when the standalone asics will be ready for auction?

can someone trustworthy create a groupbuy? (DeadTerra?, Burnside?, John?)

I would be interested in such buy as well.

Depending on pricing, I would definitely be interested in a group buy.

I believe that will be a tricky part. Because the end price isnt fixed. So how will a groupbuy work? Giving out a max-price? I mean some people would buy for 1000btc, others wont buy a part if the endprice is 500BTC. Im not sure how this can be solved. Maybe each payment from each groupbuyer must have a limit? If the auction goes above that price then this investment goes back to the investor. Something like this. But this way its probably hard to get enough btc.

Only one unit per customer would be a nice gesture.
Prevent the formation of monopolies .....

I think its not possible to prevent. I believe many people here run around with multiple accounts.

The only reason to limit the quantity of units per customer is to prevent the formation of arbitrage markets, which can form in very illiquid markets (people buying at a fixed price and selling it for more). Given that ASIC mining units are short in supply such a policy would make sense.

However, that said, since the units are auctioned off, the prices will reflect the real demand. So no policing required.

Like you said, i doubt a bit that this business plan will work with an auction because the auction will already bring out the maximum price too. A buyer of multiple miners will have a hard time to sell it for more.

Exactly -- friedcat said mid-April, but that was before he posted again talking about problems with deploying and maybe selling chips. So I'm wondering when the new batch of chips are expected, and when we expect those chips are likely to be plugged into the wall and generating new hashes..

It looks like it will move on only until the datacenter is ready. But friedcat didnt say a word till now when he expect that the datacenter is ready or when the standalone asics are ready to be auctioned.

Only one unit per customer would be a nice gesture.
Prevent the formation of monopolies .....

But this is a "free market!" *screeches and throws brick out of glass window*

Or wrong thread...?
The only reason to limit the quantity of units per customer is to prevent the formation of arbitrage markets, which can form in very illiquid markets (people buying at a fixed price and selling it for more). Given that ASIC mining units are short in supply such a policy would make sense.

However, that said, since the units are auctioned off, the prices will reflect the real demand. So no policing required.

As long as the selling process gets maximum price, shareholders should be well-compensated.

But that's the trick - getting maximum price.  There are several theories about how to get the best price (as a seller) in an auction. 

Personally I think the traditional public auction is NOT the best way to get the best price.  In a public auction, the highest bidder doesn't have to bid their maximum value - the just have to bid the second highest bid + minimum increment.   And in a group auction for multiple (say, 500) items, someone who wants the item can bid at price #500+increment (effectively trading a lower bid price for the risk of being outbid just before the auction finishes - similar to being sniped in an ebay auction).  Sniping wouldn't be a thing if people didn't bid #1+increment, but instead bid the maximum they valued the item.

Alternatively, a hidden auction (in theory) forces all bidders to bid their maximum value for their expected utility.  Given high demand for ASIC miners, this could be a good way to maximise the prices received.

The other thing is that time is a factor.  The longer the auction runs, the more time there is to pull in bidders (within reason), but for a good such as this, time value deteriorates the value of the product.

As an asicminer shareholder, it is very much in my interests that the prices for sold hardware are maximised (even though I'd like to buy one myself).

I believe a hidden auction will only work for products where you know the price. I really think that the price with a public auction will go higher because the buyer then will see that the others bid more and will recalculate if he better want to spend more. A hidden auction holds the risk of a bad awakening. That the sellers only bid low because they dont see how high the others bid. I think thats the reason why ebay is doing its system like they do. Even auctions for art or similar are public. I believe the reason is because the greed comes into play and leads to higher price at the end. Arent there studies about this maybe?

Regarding sniping and bidding a small amount more only than the highest bidder i suggest to make a minimum higher bid in the rules. For example from 1000BTC on you have to go higher in steps of 50BTC. Something like this. This way its prevented that someone wins only because he always overbids the highest bidder with one btc.
And i would suggest that sniping can be avoided by letting the auction run a half hour longer when a new bid came in. Both rules together should help that this doesnt leed to an endless auction.


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April 05, 2013, 07:22:11 PM
 #2869

User 67117 now at 6,826.64 GH/s on BTC Guild.  I have been watching this number slowly increase over the past hour.

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April 05, 2013, 07:24:04 PM
 #2870

User 67117 now at 6,826.64 GH/s on BTC Guild.  I have been watching this number slowly increase over the past hour.

Looks like it finally began. Hooray!
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April 05, 2013, 07:34:59 PM
 #2871

Great to see the hashrate going up, but I'd prefer to see it go up somewhere other than BTCGuild.

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April 05, 2013, 07:36:48 PM
 #2872

User 67117 now at 6,826.64 GH/s on BTC Guild.  I have been watching this number slowly increase over the past hour.

Looks like it finally began. Hooray!

Hm... maybe they managed to fix the network problems? I doubt they could stamp out a datacenter out of the earth so fast.

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April 05, 2013, 07:38:19 PM
 #2873

User 67117 now at 6,826.64 GH/s on BTC Guild.  I have been watching this number slowly increase over the past hour.

Looks like it finally began. Hooray!

Hm... maybe they managed to fix the network problems? I doubt they could stamp out a datacenter out of the earth so fast.

AFAIK the datacenter was to be ready before the end of march. They started working on it some two weeks ago...
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April 05, 2013, 07:45:31 PM
 #2874

7 TH/s

(BFL)^2 < 0
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April 05, 2013, 07:48:41 PM
 #2875

User 67117 now at 6,826.64 GH/s on BTC Guild.  I have been watching this number slowly increase over the past hour.

Looks like it finally began. Hooray!

Hm... maybe they managed to fix the network problems? I doubt they could stamp out a datacenter out of the earth so fast.

AFAIK the datacenter was to be ready before the end of march. They started working on it some two weeks ago...

Maybe. Depends probably what they meant with datacenter. It would be cool if deployment now can move on without limits and the auction could be stopped. Though i think even when there are no limits now the competition is still too behind that asicminer could go full in. So the auction will remain topic for some time...

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April 05, 2013, 07:56:26 PM
 #2876

Maybe. Depends probably what they meant with datacenter. It would be cool if deployment now can move on without limits and the auction could be stopped. Though i think even when there are no limits now the competition is still too behind that asicminer could go full in. So the auction will remain topic for some time...

It looks that you're right after all. Hashrate stopped at 7TH/s. And I think friedcat said that they've deployed 0,5TH "extra" which is not hashing due to network difficulties.
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April 05, 2013, 08:03:44 PM
 #2877

Maybe. Depends probably what they meant with datacenter. It would be cool if deployment now can move on without limits and the auction could be stopped. Though i think even when there are no limits now the competition is still too behind that asicminer could go full in. So the auction will remain topic for some time...

It looks that you're right after all. Hashrate stopped at 7TH/s. And I think friedcat said that they've deployed 0,5TH "extra" which is not hashing due to network difficulties.

I dont think that it makes sense to deploy TH that doesnt hash because of difficulty because the next difficulty is calculated from the average hashing from the last. So at this time it would be a disadvantage only to have asics that dont hash because difficulty will rise only a bit less but you could have earned more bitcoins hashing the previous time. So i doubt thats the reason.
I hope it keeps growing...

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April 05, 2013, 08:11:10 PM
 #2878

shipping at once is very good for the mental health of bitcoin miners.

Is the auction for at once delivery supposed to be in mid april?


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April 05, 2013, 08:12:30 PM
 #2879

shipping at once is very good for the mental health of bitcoin miners.

Is the auction for at once delivery supposed to be in mid april?

No date given yet. Friedcat only wrote that they decided to auction but no time.

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
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April 05, 2013, 09:06:28 PM
 #2880

Right. Great info, but I'm more concerned with what's showing up on my electric bill. Smiley The Avalon guys are reporting 620ish watts @ 68Gh/s on 120v and I think Ngzhang has a post around here somewhere about savings with 220v circuitry. Sounds like a shipped ASICMiner concoction will be similar.
it is always more efficient to run higher voltage when possible.   that is why you seek 3 phase when you buy a building, it saves on your power bill and you run your lighting at 277 and motors at 460.   Most states give you a credit because you put inside your own transformers.   It is usually around 10% off the industrial rate so you end up paying 6.2 cents here vs. 7.3 industrial and 11 cent residential


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