ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[tinus42]

An estimate of the value of an ASICMiner share (with conservative-ish assumptions)

Assumptions:
   * Bitcoin will still be around by the time our kids become adults.
   * AM will maintain a minimum of 20% of total hashrate for another five years. (about 80% of total coins will be mined by that time [1])
   * Tx fee is down to zero:(
   * Operaional fee is zero:)

Calculations:
   * Total number of coins will be mined by AM by Jun 2018:
     (52500 * 3.5 * 25 + 52500 * 1.5 * 12.5) * 0.2 = 1115625.0
   * Let X be the percentage on sales income over mining income,
     Price per share (PPS) will be 1115625.0 * (1 + X) / 400000,
         X = 0.1, PPS = 3.068 BTC;
         X = 0.2, PPS = 3.347 BTC;
         X = 0.3, PPS = 3.626 BTC;
         X = 0.4, PPS = 3.905 BTC;
         X = 0.5, PPS = 4.184 BTC;
         X = 0.6, PPS = 4.463 BTC;
         X = 0.7, PPS = 4.741 BTC;
         X = 0.8, PPS = 5.020 BTC;
         X = 0.9, PPS = 5.299 BTC;
         X = 1.0, PPS = 5.578 BTC; (We are around here as of recently)
         X = 1.1, PPS = 5.857 BTC;
         X = 1.2, PPS = 6.136 BTC;
         X = 1.3, PPS = 6.415 BTC;
         X = 1.4, PPS = 6.694 BTC;
         X = 1.5, PPS = 6.973 BTC;
         ...

References:
   [1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

(Be diligent and do your own calculations. I am a shareholder and I am biased.)

Are you taking the shit? So a single share will be worth $557800 in 2018 if both the mining percentage and the BTCUSD price stays the same? 

Actually of course income /= divs. They need to pay for electricity, housing, staff, etc before they can pay out divs. So it would be less. Lets assume 50%. But still.. 

[SmiGueL]

Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ?

Whatever it was, all blocks (4) in the last hour are found by ASICMINER
https://blockchain.info/

Nothing to worry about

[Eric Muyser]

Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ?

Friedcat tripping over cat5 in the datacenter perhaps ?

It happens every time they take them off the pools, so that's a piece of it (doesn't make up for all of the dropoff unless they decided to move things around).

[r3wt]

it never ceases to amaze me how genius some people are. I myself am pretty smart, but these guys that are on the cutting edge are kind of like my heroes. how bout a round of applause for everyone who made ASIC Mining possible.

[nubbins]

Havelock breached BTC3 while I was asleeep, then went back down.  But the line has technically been crossed.

I was pleased to learn that I had sold some units while I slept. They hit a high of BTC0.03245

[empoweoqwj]

Havelock breached BTC3 while I was asleeep, then went back down.  But the line has technically been crossed.

I was pleased to learn that I had sold some units while I slept. They hit a high of BTC0.03245

That's what I call passive income 

[velacreations]

price seems to be slipping back towards 2.9 for now.  I think that's a good thing, and in fact, it would be even better to go back to 2.8 and then come back up slowly, like taking 2 weeks to get to 3.  

As for dividends next week, there are no blade sales, USB miner sales are slowing down.  Mining revenue will be around .016, barring any major shakeup. My prediction for the dividend is max .025, and I expect that will be the best dividend until July, when they start selling blades again.  

This will probably cause some people to sell. Share prices might get as low as 2.75, but that's ok.  We don't want a bubble and crash, here.

While I agree that AM has a bright future, I do not agree with the long term valuations being thrown around right now.  This smells like a bubble, and I hope we get back to consistent, sustainable growth.

[Fabrizio89]

price seems to be slipping back towards 2.9 for now.

Only on btc-tc.

[velacreations]

price seems to be slipping back towards 2.9 for now.

Only on btc-tc.

it was on bitfunder, too, but just for a bit.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

This smells like a bubble, and I hope we get back to consistent, sustainable growth.

That wasn't a bubble. It sprung up suddenly because it was held back for 3 weeks by a huge wall.

Consistent, sustainable growth will be resumed shortly...

[velacreations]

This smells like a bubble, and I hope we get back to consistent, sustainable growth.

That wasn't a bubble. It sprung up suddenly because it was held back for 3 weeks by a huge wall.

Consistent, sustainable growth will be resumed shortly...

before the huge wall, it was certainly forming a bubble.  easing back a bit, and growing slower will be better.  I think the weekend dip+lower dividends next week will take care of that, anyway.

the demand is backing off, and that's a good thing.

[Franktank]

This smells like a bubble, and I hope we get back to consistent, sustainable growth.

That wasn't a bubble. It sprung up suddenly because it was held back for 3 weeks by a huge wall.

Consistent, sustainable growth will be resumed shortly...

before the huge wall, it was certainly forming a bubble.  easing back a bit, and growing slower will be better.  I think the weekend dip+lower dividends next week will take care of that, anyway.

the demand is backing off, and that's a good thing.

You're saying that a 30x increase in value (from IPO prices) over the course of 10 months isn't reasonable?! What madness is this?!?

[weaknesswaran]

This smells like a bubble, and I hope we get back to consistent, sustainable growth.

That wasn't a bubble. It sprung up suddenly because it was held back for 3 weeks by a huge wall.

Consistent, sustainable growth will be resumed shortly...

before the huge wall, it was certainly forming a bubble.  easing back a bit, and growing slower will be better.  I think the weekend dip+lower dividends next week will take care of that, anyway.

the demand is backing off, and that's a good thing.

You're saying that a 30x increase in value (from IPO prices) over the course of 10 months isn't reasonable?! What madness is this?!?

+1

we will see a horrible correction in the near future.

[Eric Muyser]

You're saying that a 30x increase in value (from IPO prices) over the course of 10 months isn't reasonable?! What madness is this?!?

That's right, it's madness, fried cats only became 20x more delicious over the course of 10 months. This is a fried cat mania bubble...



... never giving up my black fried and crispy cats.

[Smidge]

You're saying that a 30x increase in value (from IPO prices) over the course of 10 months isn't reasonable?! What madness is this?!?

[gmouse]

Also hosts MtGox.

That's quite funny, but as an investor, it would be nice to have some transparency.

It is a catch-22; we want transparency as investors, but any pictures of the actual data center also compromise security.

[Lohoris]

It is a catch-22; we want transparency as investors, but any pictures of the actual data center also compromise security.

If you trust ASICMINER, then you have to trust them they also have sound security measures.
If you don't trust them, then you shouldn't buy their shares anyway.

Either way, they shouldn't release information compromising security, then.

That said, a statement such as "don't worry, we're aware of that, everything's ok" would be nice.

[AMuppInTime]

That said, a statement such as "don't worry, we're aware of that, everything's ok" would be nice.

Too much of that and you run into BFL territory. I think board members are entitled to more transparency, but smaller shareholders should learn to not know everything - as long as you don't hear them panicking, you're probably ok - Friedcat coming by once a month for brief updates is very acceptable. IMO the crowd working itself into a mess of questions/doubts/requests: that's fine as long as it's within ourselves, but detrimental when directed at ASICminer.

[ThickAsThieves]

That said, a statement such as "don't worry, we're aware of that, everything's ok" would be nice.

Too much of that and you run into BFL territory. I think board members are entitled to more transparency, but smaller shareholders should learn to not know everything - as long as you don't hear them panicking, you're probably ok - Friedcat coming by once a month for brief updates is very acceptable. IMO the crowd working itself into a mess of questions/doubts/requests: that's fine as long as it's within ourselves, but detrimental when directed at ASICminer.

I agree. Even though I'm a proponent in getting questions asked to Friedcat, I do have criteria for I what I would vote for to be in the poll. I will not include questions that are rooted in greed, unhealthy paranoia, or pure speculation.

At some point you have to assume a business is acting responsibly, and stop obsessing over its operations as if you were an employee.

[ianp]

Next retarget tomorrow... I wonder if we will see peaks over 50 th/s?