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Author Topic: What do you guess about he future of bitcoin?  (Read 46023 times)
pedrog
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March 19, 2015, 09:52:36 PM
 #21

So bitcoin will need more people to used it in order to get more stable !
hope it gets stable because for the moment it's heavily unstable

Look at the history of the oil market, oil price was quite volatile at the beginning of the last century, with its market growth and increasing adoption, eventually the price became more stable.

I think we can establish a parallel between bitcon's current market and the first decades of the oil market.

Yes what you said is true but I think for the moment oil have a great and big job and it's used in every place in the world not like bitcoin , and the stabilization play a big role to adopt bitcoin in some countries , people will be afraid to use a currency whose value is not stable !

Sure, but was not like that in the beginning, many people were just speculating, I'm pretty sure at the time there were people saying oil was no good, the market was going to crash, there's no future for the oil market and so on.

First years of a new market are always rough.

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March 19, 2015, 10:08:22 PM
 #22

It will remain unstable for quite some years. Market cap is way too low for any kind of stability.

With very thin orderbooks a single whale can cause the price to drop significantly.

I hope at some point in the future there will be only 1 orderbook left. That will bring more stability.

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March 19, 2015, 10:09:49 PM
 #23

bitcoin is unstable now as we still are in the very beginning of it. eventually it will be more stable.
with current price you can get yourself a good position in bitcoin at a great price.

People are rather strange beings indeed. They want bitcoin price stability which means that the price won't change much ("eventually it will be more stable"), and at the same time they want bitcoin to start pursuing new heights and highs ("with current price you can get yourself a good position in bitcoin at a great[er] price")...

Bitcoin must be a little more stable , ok for decrease but not a fatal one ( example from 500$ to 300$)
if bitcoin not stable this would not help bitcoin be world wide
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March 19, 2015, 10:13:09 PM
 #24

It will remain unstable for quite some years. Market cap is way too low for any kind of stability.

With very thin orderbooks a single whale can cause the price to drop significantly.

I hope at some point in the future there will be only 1 orderbook left. That will bring more stability.

I don't know about "some years"... I have the feeling that if there isn't an explosion of market cap in the near future (2/3 years), the future of bitcoin is compromised and it simply isn't "taking off".
Let's see where we're going.
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March 20, 2015, 03:11:15 AM
 #25

It's still early in the game. if you ask someone on the street what "Bitcoin" is, they look at you as if your speaking a foreign language Grin
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March 20, 2015, 03:23:01 AM
 #26

I don't expect it to Sky Rocket for a while. Due to its instability, it won't be hitting mainstream for a long while. As more people discover bitcoin though, it will definately increase the price a bit as it's more well known. For it to reach its peak again is unlikely imo.
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March 20, 2015, 06:37:08 AM
 #27

In the future the economy in the world will be much more close than we have today, even poor have the chance to invest located not in his own country, wall street recognize the reality and lead people of the whole world make the price of bitcoin sky high and use it to do goods exchange

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March 20, 2015, 07:22:03 AM
 #28

So bitcoin will need more people to used it in order to get more stable !
hope it gets stable because for the moment it's heavily unstable

Look at the history of the oil market, oil price was quite volatile at the beginning of the last century, with its market growth and increasing adoption, eventually the price became more stable.

I think we can establish a parallel between bitcon's current market and the first decades of the oil market.

A really strange comparison you have just made. Have you looked at the recent oil prices and their fluctuations? In fact, oil price had been quite stable at the beginning of the last century. For that matter, I would rather say that the bitcon market volatility mirrors that of oil prices...

Yeah if you look at oil overall it's just been steadily increasing. The fluctuations in the early years are relatively small too. There's certainly not the jumps from $100 th $1000 and back down again

We should look at inflation-adjusted oil prices if we want to see the real picture. Furthermore, in 2008 the Crude Brent oil price fell form as high as 140$ per barrel to as low as 30$, which corresponds tightly to the meltdown of bitcoin from over 1100$ to 200$ per coin...

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March 20, 2015, 12:08:43 PM
 #29

Everyone knows that bitcoin is not a stable currency here is a graph :


Do you think bitcoin have possibilities to be more stable in the future ?
What do you think about the future of BTC?

I think that bitcoin will become the world reserve currency , you can save your money and it's a way super secure than everything we can imagine.
The bitcoin now are are being widely accepted and not controlled by government


There is a long term decreasing trend of volatility.

You can just easily caclulate that by using blockchain.info statistics of price.

So yes deflation can cause prices to stabilize (unlike many keynesian propagandists like to think on the contrary), and as more bitcoin grows the less susceptible to manipulation it becomes and the more stable.

So go forward commerce and let's enjoy the fruits of it!

 
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March 20, 2015, 12:20:29 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2015, 02:43:35 PM by deisik
 #30

You can actually look at the chart and see what Pedrog said is true.

Oil all time:



Think about this for a minute.  Bitcoin is only 6 years old, and Oil has centuries of history.  Bitcoin needs time to grow and be adopted.  This is why it's volatile, it's only a handful of years in and basically a few million users only.  Everyone in the world uses oil.  Think about that in regards to price and stability.

This chart is misleading (if not outright lying) in respect to recent oil prices (starting from 2007 and till now). Besides, the modern history of oil started in the mid-19th century, when the process to distilling kerosene from petroleum was discovered. And today we may well be on the verge of what will be an eventual decline in the oil usage across the world...

My point is that oil isn't really a good example to compare with bitcoin. Better use gold instead

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March 20, 2015, 12:59:21 PM
 #31

Some people forgot the experiences of gold standard in the 19th century and they insist relive them as "technological innovation", with bitcoin.
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March 20, 2015, 01:22:09 PM
 #32

bitcoin need only mass adoption nothing else for the moment, it need that those with tons of bitcoin spread(by selling) their fortune until everyone become equal or near that, it will require many years, don't expect a big rise even with the halving
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March 20, 2015, 01:38:27 PM
 #33

In the future the economy in the world will be much more close than we have today, even poor have the chance to invest located not in his own country, wall street recognize the reality and lead people of the whole world make the price of bitcoin sky high and use it to do goods exchange

This is great news then when should we expect the powers that be give over their total control they have over the financial market? The gap between rich and poor will always remain and they will never give up they are hooked on the power and always will be imho.

If wall street brought into bitcoin then yes that is a lot of extra money entering bitcoin and the price would rise but not before a massive crash so they can accumulate more of the supply they will try get most of the supply if they do become interested.

In the end op it will stabilize when we have close to mass adoption for a few years it is still so early and i think the future of bitcoin for those who ride the storms is going to be very bright.

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March 20, 2015, 01:41:11 PM
 #34

bitcoin need only mass adoption nothing else for the moment, it need that those with tons of bitcoin spread(by selling) their fortune until everyone become equal or near that, it will require many years, don't expect a big rise even with the halving

NO NO NO NO

You dont understand, them selling it will plunge the price, its good that they sit on it because the price will remain high and scarce.

Of course an argument can be made that in lower prices more people can afford it, which is true, but if the price goes down why would them buy it?

So its good as it is, there is enough bitcoin in circulation and being sold that anyone who wishes to buy can buy some.

The main problem is a lack of advertising, i think every single bitcoin holder should set up websites and promote the sheeet out of it, tell them to friends, family , everyone!

See internet promotion is not enough, because many people dont trust "internet things", it needs bilboard campaigns, many many tv media attention, and local newspapers talking about it.

If Bitcoin Foundation would not be so busy it could run campaings like that to promote it better.

Also 3rd party promotion through merhant contracting is also good, especially if Microsoft and IBM does it!

 
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March 20, 2015, 02:51:43 PM
 #35

It will remain unstable for quite some years. Market cap is way too low for any kind of stability.

With very thin orderbooks a single whale can cause the price to drop significantly.

I hope at some point in the future there will be only 1 orderbook left. That will bring more stability.

I don't know about "some years"... I have the feeling that if there isn't an explosion of market cap in the near future (2/3 years), the future of bitcoin is compromised and it simply isn't "taking off".
Let's see where we're going.

Quite some years can be 5-10 years, or even more. An explosion of market cap as you say is never good and won't bring stability.

I prefer to see Bitcoin gaining 25-50% per year in normal circumstances, and perhaps even higher with very good news.

We all know how the explosion to over $1000 has ended. I hope future won't repeat istelf here.

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March 20, 2015, 02:55:54 PM
 #36

All my bets are on the fat dude (in yellow) as the center of the aggregate inertia and personality.


(Is that Leonardo DiCaprio?)



I suppose everyone has forgotten that I explained that option markets for pegged assets are essential to scaling[1] Bitcoin.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=882857.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=882857.msg9746393#msg9746393 (toknormal is perhaps one the astute guys on the forum)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=380441.msg10531520#msg10531520
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985481.msg10740998#msg10740998



As for the future of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is the reserve currency of crypto-currency, but not the reserve currency for the central banking world. I explained as follows.

Heiamback talks about "grassroots technological anonymous crypto-currency", I wonder if by this he means Bitcoin or a totally anonymous currency without a public ledger like Monero.

Monero has a public ledger which attempts to provide anonymity via autonomous mixing with Cryptonote's one-time ring signatures. Monero does not have anonymity of the IP address sending the transaction to the public ledger, thus it doesn't have total anonymity. Fluffypony was proposing to add I2P (a.k.a. Darknet) integration, but I don't think any free onion routing "darknet" network can be resistant to Sybil attacks on anonymity. We've seen the Tor "darknet" fail spectacularly with its hidden services.

Anonymity is difficult with Bitcoin (but not impossible if you are expert). Bitcoin is an important bridge between the legal tender national currencies and the altcoins.

There are many technologies in play here, and there are more coming. Stay tuned.



Subject: Mar 18: Tor does not provide reliable anonymity!

As far as I know Tor never got compromised given the guy hosting the hidden service didn't do anything stupid, ... , if u run Tor with no javascript etc in a safe OS and dont reveal private information you are safe imo.

Tor is not reliably anonymous! If you are trusting Tor to protect your anonymity, the NSA has probably already de-anonymized you and is saving all the incriminating information for G20 tax hunts coming over the years.

Sadly even Tor's developers admit Tor has egregious problems and they are not sure exactly what happened in every case:

https://blog.torproject.org/blog/hidden-services-need-some-love
https://blog.torproject.org/blog/thoughts-and-concerns-about-operation-onymous

Quote
...

Essentially all anonymous networks suffer three fundamental design problems which make them very easy for the NSA to de-anonymize:

1) Sybil attacks...
2) Denial of service attacks...
3) Low latency relaying...
4) Tor adds exit nodes interfacing to HTTPS which make correlation attacks...



tabnloz, very good. You've almost got it entirely.

Cash is going away. They are phasing it out such as by lowering the ATM withdrawal amounts, confiscating cash at borders, and civil forfeiture laws in the USA where they take your cash for any suspicion of illegal activity and they don't need to prove it (your cash is guilty until proven innocent, because it doesn't have human rights!).

The elite appear to be using Bitcoin to force the banking systems to go electronic in order to compete. Realize the elite can't rule by top-down edicts, because they would become the target of organized resistance. The elite rule by clever deceptions. I believe Bitcoin was created with an elite team of cryptographers from the NSA with funding from the DEEP STATE, i.e. the $2.3 trillion that Donald Rumsfeld admitted on the eve of 9/11 was missing from the Pentagon budget (cumulatively over the decades).

I believe that elite team intentionally (secretly subverting the DEEP STATE that contracted them) or inadvertently launched a market for a real anonymous currency and internet. I believe we can invent crypto-currency that can protect us and work as cash did and with extra beneficial features. Thus I believe Bitcoin will not be the only popular altcoin. But the proof of this will be in the pudding so to speak. Someone has to actually invent something worthwhile.



Changing the leaders of central planning to engineers or traders won't change the fact that the power vacuum will force the most corrupt to rise to the top and "winner take all". Armstrong is wasting his fucking time [with politics and central planning]. The only possible solution is as it has always been since 6000 B.C., which is private money for the Private waves in Armstrong's cyclical model of oscillation between resets of the political MORASS. Armstrong believes private money is impossible in the digital age. If he is correct, then the human race will go extinct. I know the technology of cryptography and anonymity. I know Armstrong is incorrect. We will have private money in the digital age. The collective morass will eventually have to put a chip inside our body in order to attempt to stop private money (but that is for a future time, not this cycle).



Armstrong apparently doesn't understand or believe that anonymous crypto-currency is plausible.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/14/real-estate-15yr-v-30yr-mortgage-new-electronic-currency-coming/

Quote from: Armstrong
Paper currency will be eliminated and we are headed into purely electronic money. This will be the BITCOIN without the BITCOIN. That is a basic model, which is why they have not shut it down allowing it to survive purely to monitor its performance. Of course those who have used BITCOIN will wake up with a shock when the IRS will hit them for taxes, penalties, and interest on past transactions. They think they have an alternative. That is just silly. The Feds have demanded all data from Ebay and PayPal so that if you sell junk from your garbage on line, they get their piece of the transaction. So you really think they will let Bitcoin escape? They are hunting money EVERYWHERE!

Anonymous crypto-currency and anonymous internet communication is plausible. Bitcoin and Tor are not sufficient.

We have the technology to do it. It is just a matter of implementation.

Btw, I know how to make a crypto-currency WITHOUT A LEDGER! Completely decentralized! (from a transactions point-of-view) Even if they shut down the internet, they can't entirely stop this currency from functioning. I am not revealing my secret just yet. Soon.



I already said that Bitcoin is controlled by 1 - 4 mining pools, so it is not controlled by "We The People".



Can you give me an example of a currency that is indeed decentralized if you think bitcoin or any crypto isn't? I also don't get how bitcoin can be controlled by those with political power. Seems pretty free from that at the momemt.

Bitcoin is not decentralized. Don't make me repeat this FACT again:

So for the currently bitcoin network with 8000 nodes, it can't tolerant collude by 4 top pools(actually, many ppls suspect that GHASH put its computing power in the shadow to hide the fact it controlls over 50% of the total computing power), the fault tolerant is 0.05%.

In addition to the pools being centralized, Bitcoin relies on centralized checkpoints controlled by the core developers.

Also I had already provided the following link to you twice, don't make provide it again:




The nations of the world will agree to a one-world RESERVE currency (not a political union!) because they resent the free ride the USA has gotten by being in control of the world's reserve currency.

But please realize this is all just a ruse for the global banksters to have even more control and do even greater corruption in the future by cleverly hiding their central banking manipulation in "international policy objectives" just as the Fed is hiding their funding of the banksters in "domestic policy objectives".

The only way the powers-that-be will allow Bitcoin to become the one-world reserve currency is if they control it. As I said, Bitcoin is controlled by 1 - 4 mining peers (i.e. they have greater than 50% of Bitcoin's network hash rate), thus the powers-that-be will be able to easily control Bitcoin when they are ready to take over control.

Perhaps you don't understand that you could have 20 mining pools all secretly owned by the same entity. In proof-of-work, the variance of earnings is inversely related to the percentage of the network hash rate the mining pool has, thus users will always favor mining pools that have double digit percentage of the Bitcoin network hash rate.

Bitcoin will never be decentralized. I already quoted upthread my other thread that explains how to get true decentralization by having multiple competing currencies each pegged with an options market to the domaindominant unit-of-account. This will be the future of crypto-currency. But this will not be a dominant unit-of-account. The dominant unit-of-account will always be what is regulated, because fractional reserve banking (i.e. debt-based booms and busts) is demanded by the public that loves debt financiing and it is inherently a bankrupt financial system paradigm.



I think bitcoin could rise up as sort of a natural default one world currency for sure. I hope it actually happens as a truly borderless universal currency would be amazing in my opinion.

Impossible. Bitcoin is not decentralized and no crypto-currency can be entirely decentralized. A single, borderless universal currency would NOT be amazing in a good way, rather it would be slavery because it will always be controlled by those who have the most (political) power.

There will never exist such as a thing as a single crypto-currency that is decentralized. It can't exist. Bitcoin is not decentralized. True decentralization will only come from multiple competing currencies, thus of course these can never be the reserve currency.



coinits, calm down you are preaching to the choir. You perhaps don't realize I wrote the syndicated essay Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch. I am the one who has been writing that Bitcoin is owned by TPTB.

In spite of the arguable fact that Bitcoin is controlled by the global elite, my guarantee that it won't be the "winner take all" global currency remains certain.

First of all, simpleton readers don't seem to understand the distinction between a reserve currency and a circulating currency. Crypto-currencies are the latter. Dollar and Euro cash are examples of the latter. US Treasury and Euro-denominated bonds are the former (Tier 1 reserve assets in the BIS Basel model). IMF SDRs are the former.

The global elite are planning for a national (or regional) currencies floating against a global reserve currency. And they are planning for circulating currencies which are all digital. Bitcoin is one gambit in that mix.



Seems many readers are confusing Bitcoin with this thread. Bitcoin can never become a reserve currency, because the $200+ trillion of global wealth is not going to be placed in a speculative investment. (Stop with your fantasies about scaling over time, you don't have a clue about reality)

Large capitalists are conservative. They want safety of capital firstmost, then a steady average ROI.

There will never exist such as a thing as a single crypto-currency that is decentralized. It can't exist. Bitcoin is not decentralized. True decentralization will only come from multiple competing currencies, thus of course these can never be the reserve currency.

My thesis is that the Knowledge Age (we are leaving the Industrial Age) reduces the demand for stored monetary capital and increases the demand for stored knowledge capital. The Industrial Age (which is moving towards 0 or negative profit margins in China) required large amounts of fixed capital investment, thus a high demand for stored monetary capital. The factory worker and factory engineer are economically insignificant compared to the NAV capital costs of the factory infrastructure.

Whereas the high profit margins are moving towards the knowledge production sector (software programming, marketing, etc). The Industrial Age is dying economically and along with it will die the demand for stored money. The larger the capital, the less effectively one will be able to invest it with a positve ROI.

Thus we don't need crypto-currency to be a reserve currency. Let the oligarchs (and the socialist sheeople/masses) have their reserve currency and enslaved nation-state governments. That is all part of the process of that paradigm dying.

The Knowledge Age will rise with competing crypto-currencies.

Bitcoin will not "winner take all". I guarantee you that.



I never suggested that the reason a crypto-currency would become widely adopted is due to cap on the money supply. In fact, I have often argued that an improved replacement for Bitcoin must have perpetual debasement. Arguably the cap on the number of Bitcoins can be subverted in the future, because Bitcoin is controlled by about 1 - 4 mining pools, thus in essence Bitcoin is controlled by the governments which can regulate those large mining pools. The advantage of crypto-currency is not a fixed money supply. And Bitcoin is the least likely of the crypto-currencies to become widely adopted because it isn't even decentralized and doesn't even have anonymity. A better crypto-currency than Bitcoin will rise soon.

Note Armstrong's analogy about 21 million coins for 300 million Americans shows that he ignorant about crypto-currency. BTC are divisible down to 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) thus there isare enough fragments of BTC to supply every human on earth. Armstrong is correct that fixed money supply is deflationary and will never be accepted by the public-at-large, but he fails to articulate the reason why. The better explanation of why the public-at-large will not accept a deflationary currency is because it is incompatible with a fractional reserve banking system and thus incompatible with debt. And people love debt. Where there is no usury, there is no economy and nothing moves (as was evident in the Dark Age). The Middle East was similarly stuck going no where (still riding camels and living in tents in the desert) with their anti-usury stance, but the free money from oil and Armstrong teaching them how to hide usury in leasing gold, broke them free from that anti-usury abyss.

Armstrong seems to think that as long as the national government doesn't borrow, then my point about a reserve currency being an enslavement paradigm doesn't apply:

...

As I said, the public will always demand a fractional reserve banking system. Whether it is sanctioned by a central bank (e.g. the USA after 1913) or ad hoc by private banks (e.g. the USA in the 1800s) doesn't change the fact that the public love debt. Citizenry especially love when the debts are accrued by the collective (e.g. nation, state, province, city, school district, company retirement plan, etc) because they are under the illusion that they get all the benefits without the individual default risk. The citizenry are under the illusion that the default can't be taken directly from the individual. People are too stupid to realize they end up paying it in taxes or economic collapse.

...

I entirely agree with Armstrong. There is no way the debt market will agree to be denominated in some decentralized crypto-currency with no regulation. Because debt operates by leverage and fractional reserves, and thus the people prefer to be lied to and told that defaults will never happen and so the ultimate default is delayed by grouping everyone together in a collective with a central bank. This is more desirable to the public than individual failures haphazardly and more frequently.

Thus a one world reserve currency is coming, and it will not be a crypto-currency. Rather it will be something controlled politically by the powers that be. Everyone who participates in the mainstream debt and bond markets will be operating in that reserve currency dominated system (even if there is a 2-tier system with some nations retaining their own national currencies that float against the reserve unit-of-account).

But my point is orthogonal to that reality. Debt is basically useless in the coming shift from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age. Most of all the productive value produced in the future will be from knowledge work. This is not labor. It is not fungible like labor is. Thus it can't be financed. If Armstrong would read my essays, he would understand that there is radical paradigm shift underway which will make the debt based economy wither.

Thus those in the debt based economy with their stored money capital will be in the one world currency enslavement system.

The knowledge age workers do not need any monetary capital. We can generate earnings that are 100s or 1000s times our housing and other expenses. We don't get a rats ass about storing money. We want to save up and store more knowledge.

In our economy, we will be using a fully anonymous and decentralized crypto-currency (that is perpetually debased so it forces rapid dissemination into more knowledge production). We won't pay any taxes, except for the portion of our income that we choose to declare to justify our lifestyle to the tax authorities. The vast majority of our economy will go untaxable.

And our economy will be growing very fast while the debt based economy will be shrinking or growing very slowly.

We can peg our currency to the one world reserve currency using an options market, at some carrying cost (determined by relative volatility). We will choose to use our crypto-currency because our freedom and innovation requires we not be dictated to by a central authority, whether it be taxes, the tsuris of kafkaesque KYC and AML which interfere for example with micropayments, FCC regulation of the internet, etc..

Thus in the end, our currency wins and decentralization wins; and central banks and debt die. The one world reserve currency will be an ephemeral failing paradigm. It will be where all the unproductive people hangout and leech off the collective and default on the lenders. It will go into pernicious and terminal decline into an abyss or Dark Age. While our economy will rise up and take over.

Quote from: Armstrong
Our problem is not what is money, it is government and its endless historical evolution toward corruption.

Incorrect! Our problem is the human nature that people love debt, because they like to consume before they earn. Wealth is power law distributed. That is a fact. Thus the middle and lower classes envy collective debt as a way to redistribute from the wealthy back to the lazy. They don't understand that this honey is what attracts the flies of government corruption.

Direct democracy will never be a solution, because human nature doesn't change.

The Knowledge Age is a technological paradigm shift which renders the collective powerless to tax (most of the economic activity which won't be tangible thus can't be tracked once we have good anonymity technology implemented).

Password scrambled, ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE. Formerly AnonyMint, TheFascistMind, contagion, UnunoctaniumTesticles.
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March 20, 2015, 03:42:57 PM
 #37

Stability is an illusion

It seems that fiat money's value is stable, but it is just because everything's value is going down together with fiat money, due to overproduction everywhere

If you use bitcoin as standard of value, then you will see how everything's price fluctuate wildly together with fiat money, that is the truth


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March 20, 2015, 03:50:36 PM
 #38

Totally agree with you 1000%.  Bitcoin stumbled way too much in this long 6 years of existence.  In fact here's what Altcoin developers from Maidsafe had to say about Bitcoin's troubles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIasr2AiyZ0

Very funny. Except MaidSafe was already in the works before Bitcoin was released. So SafeCoin will hardly be an "altcoin". It's not an alternative, it's a new paradigm.

You're right, you're right.  It's new paradigm for a new age.  Viva la Maidsafe!!!




Like you said altcoin is not really a solution , we must make bitcoin more powerful more stable not make a new currency ...
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March 20, 2015, 09:18:56 PM
 #39

Like you said altcoin is not really a solution , we must make bitcoin more powerful more stable not make a new currency ...

How can Bitcoin be a solution to things it can not do?

Anonymity?

Real-time (1ms) transactions?

Etc...

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March 21, 2015, 01:09:07 AM
 #40

What people actually want is to have a certain degree of stability once the price does skyrocket. Not for bearwhales and pigtrolls to eternally pump and dump at leverage, boring long term investors to death.
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