Bitcoin Forum

Setting it up.  We have prize money left for 8 jumps.

prize is 0.10


No newbies

You must have joined Oct 31st 2015 or  earlier.

You must have at least 30 posts.


picks are .1 sized


so bellow are typical picks

 -1.0  = philipma1957

 -0.9
 
  0.0
+0.1 = wlefever

+1.1 = adaseb


please use this format

+1.1 = wlefever         would be the easiest for me to track











Pick as high or as low as you want.

no new members  you must have opened your account before  Oct 31st  it must have 30 posts.  It must not have  a recent password change.






Last thread results

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1310083.msg13534902#msg13534902

the winner is   wlefever for last jump of +9.12%



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s   the winner is   wlefever    please pm your btc addy I will send coins




Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

spacer.

Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.

Well fourth of July would be all american  but I think   July 10 or 11.


9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38

so since then we did 59 blocks   should have done  55 blocks  so we are at 7.27% real time

If we keep advancing at 8-10% per adjustment, wouldn't the halving come at 8-10% time sooner?

Right now cryptocoinnews estimates at 188 Days until halving, but if we continuously go at 10% wouldn't it be 18.8 days less? Thus halving coming late june.

I feel we'll be near 10% again guys

I think we're going to be high single digits again, too.  Simply astounding, hundreds of PH each adjustment amount to sooooo many machines being plugged in around the world.

we are not going to keep at 8 - 10%  without a price change.

now to answer how fast will we reduce    2016 blocks in 13 days vs 14 days is 155 blocks vs 144 blocks

or 7.64 %  

so it is

 
 Jan 27
 Feb 10
 Feb 24
 Mar  9
 Mar 23
 Apr   6
 Apr 20
 May  4
 May 18
 Jun   1
 Jun  15
 Jun  29
 Jul   13
 Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

so drop 14 days = Jul  13

of course that is with 7.64%

Now  here is why it will not be 7.64%    14 adjustments at that number = a factor of 2.803  so current diff = 113  it would be

2.803 x 113 =   a diff of 317! 

 puts all .25 watt gear under water at 9 cents.

and remember the network has 400ph in  .5 watt or worse gear.

Bitwisdom is starting high double digits:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    125,610,740,850 (+10.81%)
Adjust time:    After 1915 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):    843,249,330 GH/s

Price is don around 431.. .so the mid 440's are not there right now.

 we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38 this was the 2016 block of last adjustment


block 393121    2016-01-13 07:03:04   this was the 1 block of this adjustment

block 393226   2016-01-14 01:48:42   this was the  106th block if this adjustment


so we are 19 hours and 10 minutes in      that should be    114 blocks


So real world actual time  we are at a negative number.  about   -7.02%

the problem is the network can do  25% higher then this speed.

So  while this low number is nice   the big boys crank it up and we pull a few 175 block days in a row and plus 8 %   or worse.

Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.

Hope that the diff will stop growing at 10%  :-\

I am not sure how they get the date.

Are they basing it on 9%

Are they basing it on 8%

Are they basing it on 7%

My July 27 is based on 0%

My early July 13 is based on 7%

So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17

July 18th which I have on nextdifficulty.com is based on next difficulty estimate + 0% afterwards which is basically 0% minus one two days, the same as bitcoinclock has. So you must have something wrong in your calculations.

edit: the simpliest formula  halvingdays=(420000-lastblocknumber)/144  gives you when say last block was 393260 = 26740/144=185.7 days. Today is January 14th, + 185 days =July 17th

Yes and even if we get 10% diff increases every period it will probably still be sometime in July or so. Or late June, highly doubt any sooner then that.

I agree they just keep the change at 0%. I'm also thinking it will happen the first two weeks of July or late June.

26,713 blocks left, 2016 blocks per cycle, so 13.25 cycles left. The halving occurs 1/3 into a difficulty adjustment cycle. Last time it happened 1/6 of the way in.

Its crazy how we went from 743,604,444 GH/s to 811,421,684 GH/s. That is like 14,315 Antminer S7, and they only sell like 50-100 a day.

Even if Bitfury is more efficent by a factor of 5, thats 2863 Bitfury machines, so they would need to build 250 of them every single day to keep up.

Below is an interesting corollary to bitcoin mining. Just as the gold rush progressed individual miners were pushed out as industrial miners were the only ones able to extract the gold profitably. The big difference is with the halving the difficulty of extraction is known well in advance. Hence right now we are in the dig deep, dig fast mode by the industrial miners. They know they only have a limited time to get their return on investment and will deploy equipment until  the ROI disappears and maybe a little longer. It will be really interesting to see what happens as the halving nears, I kind of think the difficulty will slow as some big miners are going to go out of business. Perhaps the  there is hope that the hobby miners will hang on as they are willing to take a small loss to keep mining?


http://www.history.com/topics/gold-rush-of-1849

LASTING IMPACT OF THE GOLD RUSH
After 1850, the surface gold in California largely disappeared, even as miners continued to arrive. Mining had always been difficult and dangerous labor, and striking it rich required good luck as much as skill and hard work. Moreover, the average daily take for an independent miner working with his pick and shovel had by then sharply decreased from what it had been in 1848. As gold became more and more difficult to reach, the growing industrialization of mining drove more and more miners from independence into wage labor. The new technique of hydraulic mining, developed in 1853, brought enormous profits but destroyed much of the region’s landscape.

Id say that would be more reason for manufacturers to push sales now and into the future.. Just like with the california gold rush.. only a few come out rich.. Out of those few 90 % are the ones that sold the shovels and gold pans ;).  the analogy applies to this in so many ways!!!!..  That's why when bitmain released s7 at such high price i was pissed.. As i knew where we are ultimately heading..it is what it is..  Mine as much as you can now .. hold as much as you can now. wait for a few halvings and if its increased enough in value for you then sell it..  But you never know if btc will be here in 10 years so that's the big unknown .. Hence this is all a gamble. So to each their own in this experiment..

Best Regards
d57heinz

I have been trying to find any news that might have pushed btc down.  Worst I could find recently was Cryptsy - http://www.coindesk.com/class-action-lawsuit-filed-digital-currency-exchange-cryptsy/ .    Do you guy's think the fact of a decent size exchange having problem is having much effect or something else is doing it?

It's still in 430's so not horrible but is lower then a week ago around the 450 price.  So a small drop really I guess in scheme of things.

okay  so shift the 27 to 17  and the 13 to 3  and July 3rd if we do 7.7% average.

I can't see us doing 7.7%  from now to July 3   it is still a factor of    2.8  so diif would be 113 x 2.8 =317

I just can not see how we can be at a diff of 317 and  hash of   2.8 x 830ph = 2324ph

I don't think of it in terms of hashrate being a constraint, I think in terms of wattage... in my observation, availability of hardware doesn't seem to me to be the slowdown in the rate of growth; capacity for power does, since the megafarms are the ones driving total network speed now, and power/cooling are their primary concern when it comes to planning growth.

Worst case: Assume half the network is .5 watts per gigahash/sec or worse, the remaining is .25w, and that all miners with .5w+ devices will be be turned off as unprofitable and replaced with .05w devices in the next few months. For the same power capacity, half the network goes up 10x, which means the whole network goes up 5x to about 4,200 petahash/sec. (Actually, it's closer to 5.5x, but I'm generalizing here anyway). That's the maximum power capacity of the current network in the short term. The restriction then would be the price of the sub-20nm devices we're being promised...if their prices are 5x higher than the .25w devices, there's no incentive for the .25w miners to adopt early by dropping their .25w devices for the .05w stuff. If their prices are less than 5x, then Katie bar the door, because there's going to be a race to the halving - and past it - like the widespread introduction of the first ASICs. If the exchange rate of BTC keeps pace with (or does better than) the rise in difficulty *after* the halving compared to the price they paid for the equipment before the halving, then the halving will be transparent to their bottom lines and it won't be a factor for large farm adoption of .05w devices. If the exchange rate doesn't keep pace at the halving, then network growth should effectively stop until the older devices are paid off. (Keep in mind, though, that it only matters to current revenue generation - miners that have a large stash of mined Bitcoins held in reserve will benefit much more to the rise in price, giving them even more power to grow immediately by adding .05w devices to their existing .25w farms.) It's definitely possible, then, to surpass your expectations - in theory.

All that said, that is the worst case I see - I don't think there is actually enough manufacturing capacity with the existing vendors to deliver that much .05w hash in such a short timeframe. I personally think the non-manufacturer megafarms are waiting until after the halving to determine what risks to take next. I know if I had even 5% of the network, I'd be sitting on my hands right now hoarding BTC hoping for an exchange rate increase even more than it has in the last quarter... unless I was making my own hardware and already knew my cost for upgrading, then I'd be balls to the wall building more and more capacity in my farms. Poor us small potatoes, though...totally at the mercy of the hardware vendors deciding how much to mine for themselves and how much to offer for sale (and for what price).

Lots of moving parts. Fascinating, and in some ways scary.

I highlight that part.  I come up with this idea if my power is 2 cents in China  and bitfury has 4 cents in Russia

Bitmaintech will  build up to  all the power it can get a hold of using .25 gear  since at 2 cent power it is like  .125watt gear.

So I see growth but not 7.7% fo rthe next 13 straight jumps.   Unless of course price goes up to 800+

If 230 to 430 price jumped us to  a diff of 113  then a 430 to 800 price can jump us higher maybe to a diff of 200 or 250

Ok today is over and we finished the day at -9%

Looking good so far.

That is a pretty amazing number I wish that it would last.  Would love a week with low or negative would be even better but I wont hold my breath.

Price is in the high 420's.  So dropped from low 430's.  So BTC is going opposite direction as we want it to.

well if we had -9 for diff   and price drops from 435 to 410  that is -5.7

so its a win for mining.

From all that I have seen we are not going to keep ripping 9 or 10 %

last diff the worst day was Jan 10 at 178 blocks

the diff before the worst day was dec 27 at 202 blocks

We know bitfury did a really big mega farm say 200ph.
We know they had tons of up and down days
Well if they have settled in and no more ups and downs that is one less growth for now.

My guess is  5% or less this time. (I hope)

a 132  block day is nice

147 on the 13th
132 on the 14th      these are good.

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

http://i67.tinypic.com/23gzoma.png

It's going to get hard to mine if difficulty keeps rising like it does and BTC does not head in the up direction.  I'm afraid of what halving will look like... that could really hurt if this trend continues.

Mining is getting harder and harder.

I think the best time to mine is NOW!

Only going to get harder and harder from here on.

they said the same thing the last year, there will be always a good opportunity for mining if you have the same deal as big farm, because otherwise it mean that not even those farm can mine...you know

...and you were right, we are touching 400 now. Crashing through 400 support would be really bad news.

It's dropping fast ouch all we can do is hope sale walls hold up.   I really don't want to go under 400 again.

Am I missing any bad news? I saw Cryptsy went bad.  But nothing that I thought would cause this drop.

Yeah but one thing you need to understand is that if everybody else is doing it, then its never a good thing.

Back in 2014 people went crazy about mining and everybody was buying BTC or miners left and right, and look what happened.

Alot of people took a loss in 2015 and things began to stabalize.

Same thing happened with the price of Gold/Silver 5 years ago, everybody was buying it and it became a bubble and crashed.

I guess next diff level would be 128,000,000,000.00 or even more. It will depends btc market price. Total available hash power is more than 1,200,000,000.00 GH/s, so there is much power in reserve. I think we will see 0.10J/Gh or even 0.05J/Gh chips this year. These chips might be running already.

I think the reason is technical...short term speculators resigned on possibility of fast profits as BTC was unable to cross previously hit 500 USD barrier.

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

Of course the manufacturers got to keep this rolling.. If not for asic sales in btc where would btc price be atm.. Prolly much less than it is now.. Beginning to wonder without sales of asics in btc.. what is the real value of btc..

If we break through 390 ish  hang on to your hat .. Next fib line is in the 340 - 350 $ area..   I dumped what i had to to pay power at 418..  This sure makes the diff jumps that much harder to take..

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement 

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

Yes, the recent price drop is almost certainly due to Mike's announcement. I read it yesterday. It's very sobering, and very pessimistic.

It's not enough to make me panic and sell out. But it is clear that the Bitcoin protocol needs to change in order for the currency to grow, but there are a number of very difficult factors that are preventing the right things from happening.

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

Such are the pains of open source. It's great in theory, but it introduces a TON of inefficiencies, and leadership disparity can one of the biggest issues. This is going to get rocky, especially with a looming global banking crisis on the horizon again.

the guy rage quit to a new competitive employer (R3), then threw mud at his former 'collegues'.
check this video and see if he was any good to bitcoin anyway with these pretty wild ideas of not following the longest fork, checkpoints, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB9goUDBAR0

he is just unable to admit that his proposal failed. Big whoop, it happens, deal with it.
I don't see any inability to change whatsoever. Segwit is pretty interesting and so is Rootstock and LN.
If there is an option for bitcoin to grow, but fundamentally change or Not grow as fast, but remain truthful to it's original intent, I would very much prefer the latter.
This whole affair was orchestrated by R3:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/413pwp/mike_hearns_latest_blog_post_was_a_strategic_move/

the video is unavailable now, LOL

Proposals or not.. wouldnt have mattered as china wasnt on board.. The fact of the matter is .> china has over 71 % .. so coming to consensus is now next to impossible. We now find ourselves catering to the chinese.  Thus the system cant work!  How can one trust a system that is being centralised to a country not known for its freedoms? I personally think they have gotten beyond greedy.. Now its a game of pump and dump even with btc.. I thought i wouldnt see the day that btc could be manipulated so easily.. I can understand the early days. less coins etc.. but now? its most certain that these handful of people are just having fun at our expense.. No THANKS

Personally.. Im just about over this childish experiment as well.. I hope that some of you die hard bitcoin fanatics dont go down with the ship.. Its really not worth it.. If your holding over 1 btc then your not doing this right.. with only 21 million coins If this is ever going to gain traction then 1 btc should in theory make you filthy stinking rich. And thats what attracts people to this  Not the technology that comes secondary to most miners!

Heres a great experiment to test btc loyalty. Lets let the price be 10$  then lets see where the difficulty goes then?.. If you support the blockchain and the technology then you stay at a major loss if you mine.. If you only in it to make a buck like most are, Then the network diff should go back to where gpu become profitable again. 

Going to make for an interesting 2016.. Im shutting down my s2's as i dont see a big pump coming for halving.. Too much BS and manipulation for investors and its only been getting worse.. sad as this was a great idea.. Still is.. but has to be done differently..   If you really cared about banking the unbanked then btc should have been 0 $ till all coins were mined then evenly distributed to every man woman and child in the world.. We all know thats not gonna happen. So again think who was this really designed for in the beginning. everyone or the rich? Was this a ploy to dupe those that think outside the sytem?  Another great experiment will go down in flames due to the elite wanting to keep the world under their grip!  ::)

Best Regards
d57heinz

TL;DR
I did not get the point.
S2? Yeah, sure, shut it down.

While I remain convinced that BTC price will drive hashrate and hence difficulty, I always though it was more of a long-term trend kinda thing. The BTC price continues to slowly decline, at the same time difficulty increase also starts to moderate.

I don't expect we are actually in any danger of a difficulty decrease, just perhaps a smaller increase than recently.

BTC now down to $379.

Is this the result of the "ASIC Arms Race" that was re-ignited back in September?

Check the discussion boards, there are like 20 threads about it. Mike dude did some drama and being a Core member, it caught the media attention and the weak p2p rabble joined in the dump. Which cause people who actually hold BTC to sell now, so that they can buy it cheaper later.

It is probably going to affect Diff a little bit, too, but i don't think his manipulation attempts at BTC is going to go his way, we'll see.

If you change September to November I would say yes.

but  in general the drop is to level the  price pump from 230 to 450   which is  96 percent increase

at 230 to 379 it is a 65 percent increase

diff from 56.9 to 113.3 is  99 percent increase

so if diff went up 99 percent and price went up 96 percent we would be equal   not true since power  was .5 to .7 in sept  and now power is  .25 to .35 and if you average in the older gear maybe the network is  .4  .  so actually we are almost exactly the same as sept 4 .

the question  :

Is  sept 4 the true value of the game?

Well at least today will end up being -18% day.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    121,524,659,964 (+7.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1661 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    763,616,412 GH/s

Conservative: 1.4%
Normal  3.4%
Continous: 9.2 %
by http://nextdifficulty.com/

mining-profit.com at 0.2%

Praying for under 5%  ;D

Considering price is at around 375 currently... it's been a ugly 48 hours on value.  We really need it to go up again at some point.  But we broke through the 400 wall... not fun to see it fall thought.

I would be happy with under 5 percent this week. 

It's really one or the other...hoping for difficulty to go down and the price to go up would be rather futile, since hashrate follows price (in very, very general terms). The network 3-day average went down from +2% per day to -1.5% per day in a span of just 48 hours. That means the effective hashrate is down considerably as people panic and unplug their .5w+ devices. The only thing driving that is the price drop over the last day. So you're getting a diff drop precisely because of the price drop...and if the price recovers and people plug in their older devices again, you're going to get an enormous diff jump correlation. I predict a continuing drop in hashrate in the short term (few weeks or so) due to the risk associated with the price during the stock markets tanking, keeping downward pressure as investors move to cash. Good for existing efficient new hardware (and to a lesser extent people buying new hardware with bitcoin), bad for people relying on older hardware (and to a lesser extent manufacturers with fiat costs selling hardware in bitcoin). Dancing in the streets for savvy speculators playing the markets, since volatility makes the most money for them.

Just when stuff looks bad  look at blocks


https://i.imgur.com/b0mggBg.png
https://i.imgur.com/ucXhdcB.png
https://i.imgur.com/nn72d3B.png

We can hope it does go down.   A little good news is I keep watching it and seems we hit a little more of a sell wall around 370.  It's stuck around it for a bit.

If you like watching coinbase http://bitcointicker.co/coinbase/# is funner on up day's on value.  But I have been using it as pretty good site to watch real time.

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

Btc value is also doing a little rebound from the top 350ish to 386.   I'm just hoping we can get back to 400 sell wall again.  I really like seeing that sell wall mentally.

So really feeling better it could have been a lot worse.  I think the cryptsy news added with the Mike Hearn story.... I think he could have been a little less public almost seems like he wanted to hurt Bitcoin.  Also Cryptsy was attacked in July ( http://www.coindesk.com/cryptsy-bankruptcy-millions-bitcoin-stolen/ ).   If people have not learned yet do not keep your coins on a exchange it is a bad idea for most.

Yes I think he set out to hurt Bitcoin... Good to see a little bounce, and I did buy some at what I hope was close to the bottom?  :)


Rich

I think you can think Mike Hearn for a lot of that profit.  I'm hoping we go back up and he fades into background.   I just hope he keeps quiet saying things like bitcoin is dead is a great headline, even if not true.   

It is a little scary he want's to hurt Bitcoin it seems.  I'm a little afraid of future remarks getting picked up in news articles and have same effect.   

or he had sold a ton of coins at 450 dropping price to 430.  then  made the announcement  hoping coins would that a big drop  so for every coin he sold at 450  he could get bargains at 350-360

Many forget  coins  were dirt cheap  when he started.  He may have 50,000 coins.

I earned 1 coin a day from august 2012 until dec 2012  about 125 coins.  the  whole network  was about 20th 

 My house is mining 25th right now as I type!!

Unfortunately if that is true, it also shows how vulnerable Bitcoin still is, if a single individual can manipulate the market in that way?

Rich

will yeah  from 2009 to 2012  more then  10 million coins were mined  the first ½ ing was at the 10.5 million coin mark

So lets say 10% are lost ( pure guess)

That  still makes 9 million coins all under 40 bucks  in fact more like all under 1 dollar  as the first big spike to 40 bucks  was brief.



So if you had 10000 coins at a buck  and started selling them  during the march -april 2013 runup to 240  even say sell 5000 at 240  that is 1,200,000

  Keep 600,000 in cash. so you are at 5000 coins  buy 600,000 at 120 each  after the crash from 240 to 120  you are back to 10,000 in coins  and 600,000 in cash.

It is the month of June or July.  2013.   So when coins go mad in  Oct-Dec 2013.  sell all 10,000 coins some at 500 some at 750 some at 1000

average of 750 x 10,000 = 7,500,000  all cash no coins.   

That is not a lot of correct guesses.

 I am sure quite a few players with older coins.  That have held and maybe decided to get out of the game.
We are very young industry.  Lots can happen good or bad.

No matter the industry though leaving a job, and coming out against what you were working on is not common.   Most IT jobs if you left and said what you were working on is dead.... would be considered not so good.

I think people like that are scum no matter what his goal was.  Here is a interesting read -http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-branded-a-failure-as-media-erupts-over-mike-hearns-contentious-exit/

I am curious to know if anyone know if Mike Hern had any significant amount of mining equipment.

The sharp downturn in short term (504 blocks) seems to coinside with Hern announcing that he is no longer going to be associated with Bitcoin.

If not, then I wonder if the apparent decline on hashrate on the network has anything to do with Hern "leaving" Bitcoin

I think he picked a bad time to come out with it as well.  To make his dead statement sound truthful scheduling around news of Cryptsy going belly up was smart on his part.  As much as I hate it if you say bitcoin is dead, and can point to a exchange who lost millions in articles next to yours on new's sites.... it seems to give him more credit then it was worth.

His statement made it sound like he was mainly into holding coins vs mining is what I got out of it.  He mentioned selling all coins, nothing about machines.  

On a little brighter note we already are on a rebound.  Hitting 390 on coinbase so compared to 224 hours ago... were at least doing a little better.

So you think he  shut down a farm?

Makes sense if he had an older farm that was becoming marginal profit.

Say a 20-30ph  from s4's    of course 30ph is only 1/25 of the network,  but still it could be something like that.

It is possible that he shut down some kind of farm for non-economical purposes, especially if Hern wishes to completely disassociate himself with Bitcoin. Keep in mind that it is possible that Hern could still sell any mining equipment that he turned off that is still profitable to run.

He did explicitly say that he recently sold his remaining bitcoin. Being that he was involved in the development of Bitcoin as much as he was, I would be surprised if Hern did not at least have a moderate amount of mining hardware for testing purposes.

It is much easier to sell bitcoin then it is to sell a bitcoin miner

Estimated Next Difficulty:    119,923,894,671 (+5.80%)
Adjust time:    After 1512 Blocks, About 10.6 days
Hashrate(?):    744,687,897 GH/s

small rise! yeeeee
at least for a month or so it might go back under 5% ::)

It is more like (- 1.11%) right now

From what I heard, Mike had a few hundred bitcoin. I've never heard that he was a miner. His impact on the price is not that direct.

The price downturn was due to his comments and exit.

And maybe sprinkle in a bit of bad (but not unexpected) news about Crypsy. As an aside, I completely cleared out of Crypsy months ago and never looked back.

Really I think that Mike leaving will have a good effect. It is very likely that we'll get some protocol change, even if it's only the move to 2 MB blocks as per Bitcoin classic.

People can argue all day long about how Bitcoin should be changed to support growth. But something has to happen, and it has to happen relatively quickly.

My hope is that Mike's dramatic exit will force something to happen in the near term so that Bitcoin can continue to be relevant and maintain its potential for greatness.

I don't think it will force much though.  His as you put it dramatic, which is very true leaving with timing of cryptsy going belly up.   So there were two bad decent sized articles on most bitcoin news sites. 

And the more the comes out of cryptsy the scarier it is.  They sit on being hacked for months which is crazy they knew they were doomed, but kept it internal.  So really bad news.   Add to this someone who some respected saying bitcoin is dead is a huge story.

Does anyone know why he made such a public and hurtful comment?   Also it interesting he sold at the higher rates..... he did not deal with downside of his comments so I have a problem with that it's like inside info.

Time will tellwhat he did for or against BTC , but for today  we are not making many blocks at all


https://blockchain.info/blocks

393669 (Main Chain)   2016-01-17 09:40:36
393617 (Main Chain)   2016-01-17 00:12:17


43 blocks  in the time we should have 58  that is  a huge down turn  -25.86%  for that 9 hour 40 minute time period.

Dare I say  we could go - ? %

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   118,833,429,245 (+4.83%)
Adjust time:   After 1437 Blocks, About 10.1 days
Hashrate(?):   745,627,005 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

When will picks open? After 1416 blocks or did I remember wrong? If it is, only 21 blocks left but this speed we need to wait 3.5 hours more. :D

yes picks open at 1416  and close at 816

and that (+4.83%) is sooooo high    as a real time number we are negative see below

Jan 13  148 blocks    =    + 4 but it was a partial day 100 blocks for this adjustment in the time for 105 so it is -5
Jan 14  136 blocks    =  -8
Jan 15  124 blocks    = -20
Jan 16  136 blocks    =  -8
Jan 17       86 so far in the time for 93 = - 7

so we are -48 blocks  582 made vs 630 should be made  this (-7.61%)

while nice numbers  for now  the network has shown it can do 1000ph  that would be about 180 blocks at this diff  and two of them in a row we lose the -48 and become +24


Here is a read from hashnest:

"admin  on  2016-01-15 16:22:55
 Because of  mining difficulty increase. Form 2016-01-13, antS3 's electricity fee is greater than 100% of mining revenues, antS3 mining contracts on Hashnest  enter a “redemption waiting period”. Form 2016-01-15 0:00 beijing time, the market of antS3 will close.

form 2016-01-13,if antS3's electricity fees are greater than revenues for a sustained period of ten continuous days, Hashnest reserves the right to retire the machines. When machines are retired, a user’s contract will then enter into the “hardware redemption period”.

Customers holding enough GH/s to constitute an entire machine of the associated type (e.g., 450 GH/s of Antminer S3) are eligible to convert that amount of GH/s into the used unit of the associated type. If a user does not have enough GH/s of the associated kind to exchange for actual hardware, then this user is not eligible for hardware redemption.

If owing to a rising exchange rate, the ratio of electricity fees to PPS payout is lower than 90% for a period of ten continuous days, then mining contracts will revert back to the PPLNS method.

从2016-01-13起，antS3的PPS理论收益已经不足以支付电费，antS3的算力进入赎回等待期，北京时间1月15日24：00起将关闭二级市场交易。

从1-13日起如果连续10天 电费收益比超过100%，antS3将进入赎回期，满足450GHS antS3算力的用户可以选择支付下架费和运费后赎回矿机。
 如果1-13日至23日期间 电费收益比连续10天低于90%， antS3 将恢复正常状态。"



The s-3's in question could be  20ph of 811 ph.  But we are down about 50-60 ph

s3 becoming unprofitable....at 0.10cents a kwh it is "break even" right now.  Home miners are still good with the "free" heat from the s3.  But big mining farms can no longer run the s3.  When the winter is over, that will be it !

Damn thats something.  I believe this to be a drop in diff, but this effect will be temporary.

It's not to surprising though S3 is a bit dated were talking 2 generation back, 3 if you include bitfury.  So that is a long time in mining time.

They were built like tanks on S3 so many will continue to run.   They will end up in cheap or free miners hands.   So they still have people who can run but it's getting smaller and smaller on amount feasible to use S3's.

You mean 10 cents or 0.10$, right? You know 0.10 cents is 1/10 of 1 cent. You might want to fix your message.

first off picks are open!

but I can see small people using s-3's as space heaters

If you are in need of a space heater an s-3 is a better choice.  2 of them can replace this 1500 watt heater. Since they will run 24/7/the winter

https://i.imgur.com/wPC3ql7.jpg

Let me start then: +3.5 = Ankara

alright lets hope for a smaller diff increase pls pls pls

I vote fr4nkthetank = 6.6(6)%

Can you write it up correctly?

Ankara has done it in the correct format.


+3.5 = Ankara

sorry about that

+6.6 = fr4nkthetank

Quickseller = - 3.5% (that is minus 3.5%)

+7.0 = mavericklm

thank you!

The Antminer S3 might be old but its actually the newest miner in my place at the moment. Feel like its time to upgrade but don't like ROI'ng on hardware.

Dear quickseller please follow correct format
numbers first  thanks phil

+3.5 = Ankara
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm

My bad lol

-3.5% = Quickseller

+5.4 = flikflak

Thanks!

-3.5% = Quickseller

+3.5 = Ankara
+5.4 = flikflak
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm

+9.3 = adaseb

+4.7 = ezeminer

+2.6 = Amph

Another extreme hashrate peaks with new record maximums are being broken regardless of price right now. Seems like hardware vendors are really pushing the existing technology to the max or somebody with new low consumption tech coming in. But this will be clear only after halving.  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Yes something has happened this Morning. I am showing as high as +50% short term, if this continues we could see over 170 Blocks Today. Could be partially Antpool they seem to be very lucky?


Rich

Yes its half the day and already almost 100 blocks, so probably another +20% day.

 We passed 1 Exahash already? (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/41hug9/holy_hash_rate_increase_hit_1115_phs/) The jump is extreme. I'll say +20% increase.

---

---

Don't forget to add me to that list.

+2.6 = Amph
-3.5% = Quickseller

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm

+9.3 = adaseb

@ Lauda   yeah  1000ph for 1 day looks to be in the bag


the network has flirted  with a 1000ph day two other times  but today looks like it will get done.

There are still economic limits for mining  but 1.5eh   or 1500ph  should be in the cards by spring.

BTC price is the dog  and  diff is the tail.
With a 400usd plus price  a diff of 150 works with s-7's and with avalon6's

In fact at 400 usd 10 cent power and a diff of 200 the s-7 makes about 8 dollars a month.

So a diff of 200 could be a reality by the ½ ing

+6.0 = Lituation

+5.0 = Valkir

+6.5 = ingiltere

+6.1 = kama

thanks.

+2.6 = Amph
-3.5 = Quickseller

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.4 = flikflak
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm

+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda   

+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+%1,7 = bileq

-3.5 = Quickseller


+1.7 = bileq

+2.6 = Amph
+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.4 = flikflak
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm

+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda  

today  we have 139 blocks in  20 hours this is about a  165-167 block pace 

Well I hear we have done 1 EH/s Today.... Who or what was responsible for the Big Increase not at all clear? A lot of Blocks from Bitfury F2Pool & Antpool, however that is sort of normal.. My spreadsheet still showing about 170 blocks for Today.

Rich

okay just checking

 20.0 = Lauda  correct?

we touched 1000ph  2 times before this.

So I don't consider this much different.

Although we almost  are over 1000ph. for the third time.

Until we do it 3 days in a row  I won't be too worried.

my house can do 15 avalon 6's at 4000 gh on an overclock

but 24/7/365 is a no go.

bit fury may have finally cleared up the heating issues or we drop again in a day or two.



ps 162 blocks with 100 minutes left on the day

When were the previous times, they don't seem to show on Blockchain.info

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


Rich

 


That is why I  said touched

here are the two dates.

12-27-2015  202 blocks diff of    93    rate of 668   202/144 = 1.4    x 668 =  935

 1- 10 -2015 178 blocks diff of  103    rate of 743   178/144 = 1.236 x 743 =  918

both days  were counted  under 1000 but  if you took 24 hour time periods from part of either day along with the day next to it you push right at 1000.

today will be the first real 1000  if we do 178 blocks   178/144 = 1.236 x 811.4 = 1,002.8

looks like close again 173/144 = 1.2014 x 811.4 = 974.80

so the highest numbers ever done are

12-27-2015   935
1- 10-2016    918
1- 18-2016    974.8

+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

+5.2 = blindminer

+4.2 = HerbPean

Thanks :)

+4.5  = Zebedee

Thanks

can i change mine? i think i flopped completely the value, i want something like +11.2

I have got to say that trying to come to grips with Mining Variance / Luck v short term increases in the network hash rate is very difficult.... If you stand back then yes the upward trend is very clear, however if you look too close then I think your eyes deceive you.

Take Yesterday, it was a hell of a Day, Touching 1EH/s, 173 Blocks giving +20% on the Day. It would be easy to conclude that a lot of hash was switched on. However take just a step back and at the end of Yesterday the rate for the period so far was very close to zero. So all that big blip did was make up for the first few Days where we were negative and now we are where we should be if overall no hash has been added to the network this period.


So Today looks like it will be a little quieter, perhaps a standard 144 Block Day?? Leaving my pick to the last minute. :)


Rich

Yes, that is correct.

-3.5 = Quickseller


+1.7 = bileq

+2.6 = Amph
+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda  
______________________
_______________________
________________________

No I can not allow changes.  Just gets too complicated.

Also there is no way 11.2 is going to happen.

look at real time numbers below:

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   394026
Total BTC   15.101M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   115940545987 in 1110 blks  This is a rate of 2.29%
 
Network total   810029.469 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.99 / 601 s


at this moment your 2.6 pick is the most accurate pick on the board.



This is part of the contest how long can I wait to pick before others grab my pick.

Our oldest cat thinks we're going to be mostly flat, with a slight downturn:

-0.2 = edonkey

This is the one who guessed right once before, so don't write him off. Fishy treats are a powerful incentive.

+9.1 = VirosaGITS

I was hoping for a small + or -, but the high average is already at +4.5% and the 512 block is already close to +10%, so i am afraid we might even be able to get into the +2 digits raise, this round.

-3.5 = Quickseller
-0.2 = edonkey

+1.7 = bileq

+2.6 = Amph
+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda  

Phil, did you not copy and paste my entry? Here's what it should be:

-0.2 = edonkey

Thanks as always for hosting this contest.

+1.1% indiemax


thanks ;D

-3.5 = Quickseller
-0.2 = edonkey

+1.1% indiemax
+1.7 = bileq

+2.6 = Amph
+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+3.5 = Ankara
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda  

https://blockchain.info/blocks

394066 (Main Chain)   2016-01-19 21:55:16
393941 (Main Chain)   2016-01-19 00:00:49

so for today  126 blocks made in the time for 132  so another  - day with 2 hours to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

has us at (+4.15%)  really too high but the network can rip blocks at a 170 pace and then the 4.15 would be good.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   118,063,870,934 (+4.15%)
Adjust time:   After 1072 Blocks, About 7.5 days --------picks end at 816
Hashrate(?):   858,434,004 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:55 (9.3 minutes ago)

we have 256 blocks to go.

I think you are correct, its highly unlikely that it will be over +10% this period. Maybe if we get some +25% days until the diff increase date however price is stalling and looks like the difficulty is getting tired from rising.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    118,176,929,069 (+4.25%)
Adjust time:    After 1049 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):    860,372,437 GH/s

I'm so happy it's not close to my pick ;D

Antpool getting bigger and bigger... https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4days

+4.4 = ACAB

Because Estimated Next Difficulty is 118,364,705,798 (+4.42%). Simple logic. :)

+2.8 = radiumsoup

-3 =pusttiu

+3.7 = -droid-

+3.1 = tertius993

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq

+2.6 = Amph
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI

+3.5 = Ankara

+3.7 = -droid-

+4.2 = HerbPean

+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb

+20.0 = Lauda  

https://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   394189
Total BTC   15.105M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   116580978940 in 947 blks >>>>>>>>>>>> (+2.84%)
 
Network total   862270.269 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.38 / 565 s




https://blockchain.info/blocks



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (+3.82%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   117,678,775,826 (+3.82%)
Adjust time:   After 948 Blocks, About 6.6 days >>>>>>>>>>   132 blocks left for picking
Hashrate(?):   885,883,983 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours


https://i.imgur.com/zTmLc9T.png

+4.9 = ailikun

I've been away from a terminal where I could monitor diff growth but I have been able to watch the price and I'm glad to see it back over $400 again.

+3.6 = Mikestang

please and thank you

The price is recovering pretty significantly from the recent downturn.

I think my cat was relying on a lower price helping keep the difficulty flat. Perhaps there won't be any fishy treats in it for him this time...

+3.8 = Notlist3d

Thanks! And edonkey is nice we are doing decent on btc value rise today.  Coinbase at 418 currently so a pretty quick rebound and is just getting better and better.

+4.0 = wlefever

+4.3 = alh

@edonkey: You have your cat tasked incorrectly. He/She needs to be doing Powerball numbers, not BTC difficulty changes!  :)

75 blocks to closing!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey
+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.7 = ezeminer
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

https://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   394189
Total BTC   15.105M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   116540835244 in 911 blks >>>>>>>>>>>> (+2.82%)
 
Network total   862270.269 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.38 / 565 s




https://blockchain.info/blocks



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (+4.12%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   118,028,020,610 (+4.12%)
Adjust time:   After 911 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):   875,844,320 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   19:5 (5.1 minutes ago)









https://i.imgur.com/zTmLc9T.png







we stop  allowing picks in 67 blocks.

2.7 = philipma1957

Thanks, but we tried that. The best we ever got was one of our cats guessed a couple of correct lottery numbers.

Kind of like a moderately high "bestshare" value. Doesn't really count, but makes for a good story ;)

There are some very odd guesses this adjustment period.  I wonder if these people guessed way early or just don't look at the current trends before guessing?  I'm still amazed that the network continues steady growth period after period.

+2.4 = vortexz

As ever it's a tough call... I am going to leave it to the last moment to make my pick. I think most of the picks are in the possible range, definitely the lower range at -3.5% is possible if some older gear was switched off. At the high end I think some of the guesses are a bit wild. We are at about -1% at the moment (Block 1166 for the period) so I think that rules out anything much above 5%.

Rich

+4.9 = Kexkey

Thanks!

19 blocks to closing!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.38%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   117,185,842,263 (+3.38%)
Adjust time:   After 835 Blocks, About 5.8 days ------   19 blocks left   we stop pix at 816
Hashrate(?):   830,759,367 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   8:30 (1.8 minutes ago)



well right now we are most likely at a negative number  of course we all know  we could rip 5 days in a row at 167  and end up close to +6 or + 7%.

So to those that waited till now to pick good luck.

+4.1 = d57heinz 

+4.6 = tss

0.0 = skuser

OK about an Hour to go, so can't leave it much longer. Run rate has been stable around -1% but is picking up a little and is now at about -0.6%. Do not think we will be negative, so the question is how much hash is going to be added? The markets took a bit of a tumble but are recovering nicely, so that is likely to push things up a bit.

My feeling however is still for a relatively restrained period, something between +1% & +3%.


+2.3 = RichBC


Probably wishful thinking, but Hey Ho....


Rich

+3.4 = lanfeusst

on more block left to go 

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   117,393,026,881 (+3.56%)
Adjust time:   After 817 Blocks, About 5.7 days
Hashrate(?):   822,717,729 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   11:25 (55.0 seconds ago)

Price is declining, that's not good for mining. We might see lower difficulty increase. +3.55 now, I hope we won't see less than that.

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

final picks are above

Hey, Phil.
You somehow, missed me.
Just noticed.

Yeah, you missed me too I guess

Looks like this maybe was bitmain like i thought all along.. No reason for bitfury to test their equip on antpool and f2pool.  Im sure this crazy spike is indeed bitmain setting up the 16 nm farms..

Well now the reason i didn't buy s7 comes much more apparent. I knew someone would leak the info eventually lol.. Seems dogie let the cat out of the bag..  Bitmain did in fact sell us their obsolete hw as they swapped out for 16 nm.. I didn't think for one second that Bitmain would allow another manufacturer to get one up on them.  Ridiculous that as miners this is the game we must keep playing to stay involved..


Maybe you will roi batches 5 and on maybe not now  sad that bitmain is still up to their old tricks.. The did this with all the previous generations.  You'd think one would get wise after a while!  Notice how he conveniently says they aren't meant to last over 6 months .. Now what was roi on these machines again?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.200

Best Regards
d57heinz

 I missed two entries  they are now in

oh and today we are on our way to a 160-170 block day.

clearly shows that the big boys can power up 100ph whenever they want to.

Looks like another big Day, we are headed for nearly 20% & over 170 Blocks. Has pulled the run rate out of negative territory and now at just over 1%.

oops just seen that Phil posted this some time ago....


Rich

yeah they just got to 159 blocks with about 2 hours left

Price had a not so great day so far.  Were at 380 per BTC, so not sure if it was more bad news or what.  Coindesk had another story about dev - http://www.coindesk.com/blockstream-ceo-bitcoin-industry-creating-toxic-environment-for-developers/ .  But I cant imagine that being enough to cause the 20+ dollar loss in a day.

Just like hashrate, price has a variance, too ;)

https://blockchain.info/blocks

394533 (Main Chain)

394363 (Main Chain)


that is 171 with 47 minutes to go.


 I want to see it go to 178


178/144 = 1.236111   x  811,421,684 gh =  1,002 ph

True but we were hitting 410 at points yesterday and now around 380.  Anyone seen news or reason for it?

I know there is variance :)  my question was not if there is, but what caused this drop in value.

is the usa stock market doing a rally today?
yes it is

so a day trader that mixes BTC and stocks could be why

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?iid=EL

Yes yesterday was pretty bad +17.7% for the day, but I don't think we will come over +10% this period, just isn't enough time.

too bad still short of a true 1000ph day   we needed 178 blocks

Today looking a bit slower. I make the overall run rate for this period as +1.7% and think Today will be something like +8%, 156 Blocks. So if I was picking now it would be in the +2% -to +3% Band. But as we know anything can happen and often does...

Rich

The run rate is up for the daily avg..  Current net hashrate is according to wallet,

Net Hashrate
950,961.21 TH/s

This has held steady for over 24 hours now.. In the past it would just peak and drop .. this time seems a bit diff.    If you look at these two graphs the run rate is shown really well.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth-10k.png

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Looking here at the 14 day avg.. we can see its around .5 % growth per day.. Over two weeks that would give you 7 % - the time diff since it wont be exactly 14 days but a little less..  What i do like to see is that the 7 day avg is a bit in flux. so maybe it appears we have reached a peak for a while.. With all the politics going on in btc IMO right now isnt the best time to be increasing your farm.. wait at least till the fork happens and price settles..

Best Regards
d57heinz

https://blockchain.info/blocks



Height                         Time                  
394644 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 14:09:15         14 hours 10 minutes should be 85 blocks
394539 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 00:06:25


106 blocks  vs 85



so we are headed for 165 block or maybe 170 blocks.

Yes, just back from Lunch and it looks like I spoke too soon, just as I thought things would turn down for the Day they carried on up... Now looking like another strong day. So far this period now at +2.8% and looking at least as high as Yesterday for the Day. Could even be a 178 Block day?


Rich

Bitcoinwisdom is showing +7% but NextDifficulty is showing +2.5%

Which is correct?

both kind of

the real time right now is 2.5% and if we do all 144 block days we will be right near 2.5



the future prediction  of 7.5% is true if we continue to rip 170 block days  the 7.5 will come true.

 so 2.5 to 7.5 is the range of possibility   based on all 144 block days from now on or all 170 block days .


I consider above to be fact and below to be all spec


this network can step on the gas to about 1000ph  or hit the breaks to 750 ph.

makes sense to do this if you have huge hash power in reserve.and you do not want to kill the network.

for instance we all have seen bitfury's new chips do 50 gh at 7 watts  and  100 gh at 11 watts.

so if you are bitfury and your 40 mega watt farm can run at either speed.  you built the gear so it is cheap

when you run at  100 gh at 11 watts or full speed your hash power goes to  363ph  you are maxed

when you back off to .06 watts  you drop to 198 ph    

so the swing we see could be 198ph running at 0.06 watts   slow speed and 363 running at .11 watts top speed.

that is very close to the 165 gh swing we see.

if you are the only company in the world that can do this why not run like they do.  Especially if you want bitcoin to continue.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1453512163472

394717 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 23:46:02

394539 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 00:06:25


we did 179 blocks  passing 1000 ph for the 24 hour day

179/144 = 1.243055  x  811 =  1008 ph  for the day

I am missing logic behind this. What's the difference between turning all gear on and let the diff rise within one two periods and doing it slowlier? Only difference is that you'll mine LESS bitcoins when switching the gear on and off. I think that someone just added about 100 PH recently and the jumps between 700-1000 PH is variance within 'real' 850 PH which we are finally approaching with difficulty change.

I really would love to see under 5 just as I like that number much better.   2.5 I would consider a serious win compared to changes lately.  I feel we likely will be closer to the 7 though, even though I don't like it as much.

Bit wisdom is down a little:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    121,106,223,373 (+6.84%)
Adjust time:    After 385 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):    916,733,918 GH/s

stick with variance  if it works for you..

but lets try a different way to explain this.

I can crank my in house gear up to 32th  or down to 24th.

At 24th it is more efficient  and is easy to run 0 overheating and no breakdowns.

At 32th it is less efficient and is harder to run lots of over heating and some breakdowns.


I am bit fury  I can run my gear at 200ph  it is more efficient and it is easy to run 0 overheating and no breakdowns

I can run my gear at 360 ph it is less efficient to run lots of overheating and breakdowns

If I max to 360 it does a bigger profit then running at 200., but there is overheating  so I run it at 360ph until it gets too hot then I back off to 200ph


This is the flux  down from 850 to 700 and back up to 1000.

If you look at stats this fits.  But if you want to say variance that fits.

which is more likely.  I think I am not you.

That is the fun of a spec thread.

  As I could be wrong .
you could be wrong .
we both could be wrong.
I could be right.
you could be right.
or maybe it is a bit of both.

That pretty much sums it up ;) Where is thumbs up icon?

I should probably stop making any sort of forecast, but Today seems like a quiet flat one. We started the Day with the period run rate at +3.6% and at the moment we are +3.2%. The run rate for the Day has been mostly negative but is just poking it's nose into positive territory. So my guess for the Day is+3.5% & 149 blocks.


Rich

I locked this by accident.  iPad mini and fat fingers. sorry.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,366,708,987 (+6.19%)
Adjust time:   After 269 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   974,525,860 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.7 minutes
6 blocks: 55.4 minutes
Updated:


   http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   394868
Total BTC   15.122M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   118955395134 in 268 blks  this is about  4.94%
 
Network total   1052636.736 Thash/s
Blocks/hour


we are on tap to do 156/159 blocks today.

 so  the last three days are 173 - 179 - 159  very impressive numbers.

Yes it's amazing given the network size that so much additional hash can be added in 3 Days. I actually made it 176, 179 and I think Today could be over 160...


Rich

Considering the 600% luck for the last 5blocks, that kano had at one point, i find no surprise in 200blocks per day
Last 10 Blocks   2.1days   101.2%   46.89%   46.89%   0.0219   213.26%
Last 50 Blocks   19.3days   101.0%   74.30%   73.68%   0.0224   135.73%
Talking about luck over here! not upgrades or downgrades of the sha256 servers around the world... :D

Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,526,206,236 (+6.33%)
Adjust time:    After 264 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    970,313,773 GH/s

Go down you bitch! ;D

off the top of my head  let me check actual.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

this is 176 then 175

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1453504441765

this is 176 then  179

today at least 157 with 45 minutes left.

Net Hashrate

1,077,979.46 TH/s according to the wallet

goin up the last couple hours or so.. was around 900 peta at noon today.  thought we would see another drop.. but all sudden it quickly ramped back up.. Im hoping the peak of 1140 peta i seen is the very top

Best Regards
d57heinz

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

i agree seems with all this hash its been swinging very wild  i wonder if that has to do with block propagation.. If half the network is constantly 30sec - 1 min behind at block change would that cause crazy flux.. or is that negligible at this point..  Interesting for sure


Edit>> also i was thinking that they turned on and left it on all along and this could have just been network variance on finding blocks.. Hard to say.. But ive seen a lot question why one would turn on such a large amount and off(leaving coin on the table)  but it could be testing or heat issue.. could also be a bad streak of luck as well..


Best Regards
d57heinz

Final for today 171

So for three days we averaged over 175.

So we had about a 970 ph average for 72 hours

Nice thanks for that.. i thought we would see much bigger drop today.. More of wishful thinking i suppose..  looks like its finally getting adjusted to such a large amount being thrown on at once i suppose

well we do know that bitfury has a working chip that can do .06 to .11 watts per gh.

we do know they built a 40 megawatt plant

we do know all the wild swings started near that plant's announced startup.

So    my guess is cranking it up and down as they learn to manage the full speed full power .

Last three days suck.... 

Part of what I find scary if they really have them is bulk sales.   They chances are will use internal and get first on all they want I would guess.  Then they move to big buyers.  And if you think about it I'm willing to bet they have some sales already saying once chip comes out they want to buy.

Even at .11 it beats SP50, so not sure what SP team will do.   Unless they play price games which did not help them on SP20's.   So I think our main driving force will be bitfury.  Only thing we don't know is if some companies such as Bitmain have one sitting there ready to make that can compete with bitfury.  I almost hope bitfury is only one for a bit.... as I hate seeing high difficulty rising.

Value is up around 400 again (a few dollars shy), but positive to see a tad bit of rising.  Difficulty is not looking great.

as long as new gear is being developed  the builders have an interest in keeping price up.

 From Feb 1 to July  I see  a lot happening.

Notice those 200 block days have not happened this adjustment.

Makes me think bitfury's 40 megawatt  did those  and now that  diff jumped a few times we get 170-180 instead of 200-205  when the plant runs max.

Really does make me think  the network in in the 1010 area right now if everyone pushes the equipment owned.

this jump may be 7% so   811 x 1.07 =  868ph  with the ability to go to 1010  that would mean   next adjustment  no day will pass 168

If that is the case the bitfury 40 megawatt still makes sense.   but it also means at least one more jump  of 7% after this one.

to 929 ph  and one more after that to 993 ph  

so

 Jan 13 to  jan 26 = 7%  868ph

Jan 26 to feb 8 = 7%      929 ph

Feb 8 to  feb 22 = 7%    993 ph


and then maybe we go flatter  but since the network has shown a 970ph   aver  for 3 days in a row. 

I think we get to 1000ph before that feb22 guess 

yeah i agree.. ive seen a couple wild peaks on the 8 hour  but as far as the 24 hour it hasnt gotten much over 1 exa.. Lets hope bitfury comes thru in march.  What im wondering if thats just chips or an actual miner?

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

if we call the 8 hour peaks variance and the 24 hour a possibility of a peak running rate   we could see 1100 ish ph/s

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

final picks are above

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,677,920,231 (+6.46%) -------  I think we are going to carry over
Adjust time:   After 135 Blocks, About 20.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   980,816,944 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.8 minutes
6 blocks: 53.6 minutes
Updated:   

we are have another solid day at least 160 blocks

so 176 179 167  and 160 something for today  big numbers for sure.

We were hitting over 400 by a tad for a little bit last night.  Now down around 390 so lost a little bit o the push up.

We are getting closer and closer to difficulty change to:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,491,509,470 (+6.30%)
Adjust time:    After 130 Blocks, About 19.4 hours
Hashrate(?):    978,037,329 GH/s

I think we are stuck in a downward channel for the next 5-6 weeks on price. And it's looking like the difficulty increases are getting a bit tamer in the mid single digits.  I just hope that lasts and we got under 5% until April when we should see Bitfurys chips.

guys there is something like that "nearest choice will be profited" ?

Dropping price and rising difficulty isn't good for anyone, I would rather see the opposite happen!  As long as the price floor stays ~$380 I don't think too many people complain, but personally I like seeing $4XX as the bottom, it just makes me feel better.

Why in the world did you repost my exact words from 5 days ago?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.msg13622452

Not that I object if someone else lets their cat guess the difficulty ;)

I would agree it is nice to see that 400+ price in head.  Makes me think were heading right way.  I'm kinda tired of 380-400 area but I guess it could be worse then that.

Bitwisdom is pretty constant:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:    After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):    967,826,093 GH/s

I deleted his post.  I consider it to be spam to copy a post and and nothing.

Especially when you have a signature that appears to pay for posts.

I post like mad. Ten twenty times a day but I take the time to write something new.

Sadly Bitcoinwisdom is currently stalled. Note the last Updated time.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:   After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   967,826,093 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes
Updated:   6:10 (6.2 hours ago)

Other info bitcoincharts.com


79 blocks to go.

its funny you said that. . I was going to bust him out but i couldn't remember which user used the cats. Now i remember was you:).. When i checked his post count he had like 40 for the day and was all over btctalk not adding anything of any value just spamming the board... was odd for sure.. Thanks for clearing that up:)

Best Regards
d57heinz

It will definately be around +6% this period.

https://bitcoincharts.com



Blocks   395074
Total BTC   15.127M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   119639392273 in 62 blks >>>>>>>>>> this is 5.5%  and is real time number.
 
Network total   899439.865 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.65 / 541 s




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


is stuck at block 117



so with 62 blocks left 6 to 13 hours to go.

+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer

big gap right here

+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama


+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank



 the contenders are above:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:    After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):    967,826,093 GH/s

Wishing i don't win and it gets under 6%!  :)

Later edit: bitcoinwisdom is stuck! sorry, i didn't realise! :)

that is not correct info

we have 49 blocks left

https://bitcoincharts.com


/Blocks   395087
Total BTC   15.127M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   119683746461 in 49 blks
 
Network total   863908.508 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 564 s

Just up in the UK, 162 Block Yesterday. We are at +5.6% at the moment, 36 Blocks to go and I think we will land between +5.6% & +5.8%

Just noticed that is where the Big Gap is  :) We will see....


Rich

Estimated   120074384376 in 23 blks

is it equal to what % ?

Since I posted above we have pushed on a bit, 22 Blocks to go and I make us at +5.83% so my estimate above probably a bit low, however I have seen things pull back in th last few blocks before. Boy this is difficult even when we are nearly there.  :)


Rich

I wish it was under 5, guess I always wish less.  But if at the end of this at less then 6 I will be decently happy as it seems crazy jumps are slowing down.

I really want to know machines were being used on the few big ones we had not long ago.   I would think a lot of the big guys in it would be waiting on bitfury, or other next gen gear.  Although with having coming some might be trying to get every bit of BTC mining they can do before it.

We are continuing to push on, last 3 Blocks within 3 minutes. We are at 5.9% now. What I find scarey is knowing that Bitfury is not out there yet and even uncertainty about where Spondoolies is?

An interesting snippet on the Difficulty is that I discovered the other day when trying to reconcile my numbers for precious periods is that there is a bug in the calculation and even though the period is 2016 Blocks, the calculation is done on 2015 Blocks. Had me scratching my head for quite a while before I found this out.


Rich

395,136 is the block correct? Then it should be sometime in the next 2-3 hours.

Yes that's what I make it. I think we will finish up around 12:00. +5.89% at the moment. It's going to close to +6% but even at this late stage only needs a few quick or slow Blocks to move it up or down a decimal point or two.


Rich

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395123
Total BTC   15.128M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   119986918647 in 13 blks
 
Network total   949831.185 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.02 / 513 s


11998/11335 = 5.849%

these are the ones in contention:

+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer

big gap right here

+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama


Of course 13 blocks can be made in under 1 hour  or in more then 5 hours  that would get out of the current range.


We can determine the % by dividing the new number by

this Difficulty   113354299801

Hmm well I think we are going to drop into the gap...

BTW Nicehash has been paying at around .005BTC/TH/Day since 16:00 Yesterday and if it goes anything like last period they continued for a couple of Days after the Difficulty change at this rate. Worth a look.


Rich

Thx for the tip. Some guy is paying

F #951908   0.0072   1500.00   1024   1495.9757


Wonder if there is some secret alt coin out there.

Well I make that it... and my spreadsheet says +5.89%   But we will have to wait for the official figure.


Rich

looks to be a carryover.

I will make sure.

 I get the diff just under 120

and about 5.88 % jump

Old diff

113,354,299,801.47

New diff

120,033,340,651.24

So


5.8921%


Equivalent to about 1406 Antminer S7 being powered on.

120,033,340,651/113,354,299,801 = 1.058921812 -1 = 5.892%     and this as right

I will start a new thread later today.

prize will jump to .2

I finally hit a block with mmpool  so I will bump up the prize fund.

 I think we had 0.80 left,  I will  bump it to 1.0 btc.  My goal it to keep it going until the ½ ing.


new thread is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1341763.new#new