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101  Economy / Economics / Re: Prioritizing strong foundation over quick gains on: April 14, 2024, 03:35:48 PM
There is no right or wrong; it all depends on the result. Many people succeed in short-term projects or investments, for instance, a serial entrepreneur who built X then sold it, and then built Y then sold it, and so on. Pretty sure some people can get rich quickly because of crypto trading as well. However, what works for them may or may not work for you. If you cannot handle the risk associated with gambling short-term investment, long-term investment is the better choice because of the compounding effect; in other words, time will work for you. There is no right or wrong in your career development as well. Many people can be stars overnight, while others need more time to build their careers.
102  Local / Ekonomi, Politik, dan Budaya / Re: WW III Apa tanggapanmu? on: April 14, 2024, 02:49:20 PM
Ini yang dibahas (1) Israel vs Iran atau (2) WW III atau (3) pelemahan rupiah?

(1) Israel vs Iran
Musuh bebuyutan, konflik Timur Tengah, dari dulu.

(2) WW III
Timur Tengah itu cuma jadi proxy war jadi kecil kemungkinan bakal bikin WW III. Malah lebih besar kemungkinan konflik NATO (Ukraina) vs Russia yang bikin WW III karena kedekatan wilayah.

(3) Pelemahan Rupiah
Rupiah sudah melemah dari sejak kurleb 9 Maret 2024 (kalau dilihat trend jangka pendek), kalau trend lebih jauh lagi ya melemah sejak akhir November 2023.
Mungkin bisa cek data inflasi dulu, bisa jadi lebih bisa menjelaskan kenapa IDR begini.
103  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Claw Machines: a category of gambling? on: April 13, 2024, 03:02:02 PM
It's not a game of skill, many people in this thread said it, and I agree with them. It's an illusion that the creators of this game bore in mind when they were making it. It would be a game of skill, more or less, if after you captured the prize it were guaranteed that you'll get it. Unfortunately, we all know that more often than not it's not the case.
True, many people don't know that the grip strength can be tweaked, so that it is loose for x amount of rounds.
This way even if the player aligns it perfectly with the target, the prize will fall prematurely before being delivered to the hole.
So two factors play and contribute to the winning chance: (1) grip strength and (2) positioning. Basically, whether or not the player is skilled, there is still randomness in the game.
104  Local / Trading dan Spekulasi / Kapan Waktu Yang Tepat Jual/Beli BTC saat Halving - Eksperimen Halving 2020 on: April 10, 2024, 12:30:53 PM
Halving tinggal sebentar lagi nih, yuk kita eksperimen enaknya kapan jual-beli BTC untuk mendapatkan return yang paling maknyuss.
Disclaimer: Analisis/prediksi menggunakan data historis tidak bisa dijadikan acuan pasti untuk kejadian di masa depan, bukan saran finansial, DYOR & DWYOR

Diketahui:
Tanggal Halving 2020: 11 Mei 2020
Periode Sebelum Halving 2020: 11 Feb - 10 Mei 2020 (90 Hari)
Periode Sesudah Halving 2020: 12 - 16 Mei 2020 (5 Hari)

Langkah:
1. Unduh data harga closing BTC dari 11 Feb 2020 - 16 Mei 2020
2. Hitung Return dengan menghitung perubahan harga dalam % untuk tiap-tiap kolom
3. Menghitung Expected Return (ER) dengan menghitung rata-rata return dari H -90 sampai H -1
4. Menghitung Abnormal Return (AR) dengan cara mengurangi ER dengan return tiap kolom
5. Menghitung 5 hari Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) dengan cara penjumlahan: AR H0, AR H0 + AR H1, AR H0 + AR H1 + AR H2, dst untuk masing-masing kolom
6. (Optional) Menghitung 15 hari Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) dengan cara penjumlahan: AR H-10, AR H-10 + AR H-9, AR H-10 + AR H-9 + AR H-8, dst untuk masing-masing kolom

Hasil:
Hasil lengkap ada di: https://pastebin.com/0aXHMrDu


Terdapat dua opsi yang menarik apabila menilik tabel CAR di atas. (1) Apabila membeli BTC di saat halving H0 dan menjualnya di H3, agan mendapat abnormal return sebesar 10.63%. (2) Apabila membeli BTC di H-10 dan menjualnya di H-4 agan mendapat abnormal return sebesar 13.82%

Kemudian penurunan terbesar terjadi di H-1 dan H0, di sini aksi take profit paling banyak dilakukan.

Sumur:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McxSD1Vm9Xg
105  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Is there any easy way? Where to earn $3 dollars per day? or micro earnings? on: April 09, 2024, 10:00:29 AM
Micro earning is just a pipe dream in my opinion, since if the task is easy, employers would simply use bots or other automated means. So, you need some kind of skill to be better than bots at the very least to earn $3 or more per day. Otherwise, you'll get paid extremely cheaply, at the rate of bots.
106  Local / Marketplace (Bahasa Indonesia) / Re: 5 Alasan Kenapa Kamu Harus Beli Kripto di Indodax on: April 09, 2024, 09:34:17 AM
di aplikasi Indodax
Ah itulah ane ga install apps Indodax di hp ane, selama ini selalu akses exchanges dari PC.
Terakhir ngecek kemaren ketika mau komeng di sini, ane login dulu di PC untuk memastikan tidak ada perubahan dari UI/UX-nya.
Kalau ternyata sudah ada fitur tersebut di aplikasi ya berarti sudah ada niat bersaing, sayang perbaikan tsb tidak dibawa ke versi browser...
107  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Slots 101: Basics, Strategies, and Discussion (with poll) on: April 09, 2024, 09:26:13 AM
Rise of Merlin, I call it the legend game because I have good memories in this game when I participated in several tournaments Cheesy I haven't played this game for a long time, maybe around 1-2 years, what motivated you to play this game again?
Because Pragmatic Play was shit, that's why Grin
Pragmatic was my #1 priority because of the replay feature, you know, to brag when you win. Plus my lucky number of IDR 1,000/spin. But they rekt me in the last couple of months.
And these legendary games made my day brighter again lol.

The last game I played from the Play'n Go provider was Reactoonz have you ever tried it? it's the most popular game there almost same as Sweet Bonanza from Pragmatic provider, it's just that the multiplier is not high no more than 2000x while my highest multiplier is around 1000x
Yeah, I got decent wins a few years ago, but I still feel the high volatility in this game compared to the Gems series which feels more medium volatility.
Getting 500x on Reactoonz was way easier than on the Gems series, but you can get rekt faster too, that's what I don't like.
Nowadays, my gambling budget is more limited, so $0.2 feels too risky for high-volatility slots.
108  Local / Topik Lainnya / Re: Manhwa vs Manga on: April 09, 2024, 08:55:55 AM
Yang dari list baru ane baca dua series:
- The Max-Level Player's 100th Regression > Recommended, tapi chapternya masih dikit
- The World's Best Engineer / The Greatest Estate Developer > Recommended, mantab bikin ngakak

Ane juga baca yang belom ada di list:
- Is This Hero for Real? > Recommended, tipikal isekai yg ceritanya ringan
- Ranker's Return > Recommended kalo suka SAO series
- Transcension Academy > Recommended kalo suka karakter OP dan sosok mythical macam Go Kong, Buddha, dsb.

Kali ini lebih susah nemuin serial yang bisa direkomen gegara yang rating bagus udah pada kesebut, kemudian baca serial yang rating so-so kadang di awal bagus (promising) eh di tengah-tengahnya ngebosenin. Jadi wasting time baca Grin
109  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Claw Machines: a category of gambling? on: April 08, 2024, 03:09:08 PM
I don't recommend playing this machine since there's no fairness certification, unlike slot machines with certification or a license. If the prize is just a toy, then it's not gambling by definition, but if the prize is money, then it's gambling. This machine is easy to tweak or compromise, so even if you're a skilled "crawler," you still can get bad results. There are many YouTube videos testing and explaining this machine.
110  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Story of my life on: April 08, 2024, 02:09:45 PM
The result is random; if you achieve good results, it might be due to coincidence. But I do agree that people should play with moderation, as you will waste a lot of time playing games if you are not careful. The result of too much gambling is obvious; it will degrade your life's quality: poor sleep, lethargy, laziness at work, bad mood, etc. I recommend setting one or two days exclusively for gambling and not playing every night, even if it's just for one hour. In the heat of the moment, you may not realize the time, and suddenly it's morning and you have to go to work!
111  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Slots 101: Basics, Strategies, and Discussion (with poll) on: April 08, 2024, 01:48:18 PM
Howdy guys? It's time for me to share my winnings:


618x


545.25x

After a long drought, it's raining again! Grin
112  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Stopping the curse of losing streak? on: April 07, 2024, 11:43:05 AM
A losing streak is quite common for me and probably for other slot players. So, I can't really mitigate such a thing, or in other words, I just stick with my monthly gambling budget. If you have such a mentality, that gambling is just a fun game, then you don't think too much about your losses. It sucks for sure when a losing streak occurs, and changing scenery can help your mental health, but by no means will it improve your luck. It's all random, and when shit is "destined" to happen, no matter what your strategy, the outcome will be the same. Sure, there were times when I stopped playing (cold turkey style) because of prolonged bad luck and decided to use my gambling budget for other means of entertainment. But when the next month I decided to gamble again, it's still completely random, as a wise man said, "Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit."
113  Economy / Economics / Re: considering the advantage of Fiats over Cryptocurrencies on: April 07, 2024, 09:54:24 AM
First of all, it is incorrect to group Bitcoin & Altcoin and then compare it with fiat since these two are not in the same group. The advantage (or disadvantage based on your PoV) of fiat over Bitcoin is pretty clear. Fiat is a "bad" currency, it's so bad that people want to give up their money easily because of inflation, in other words, people are encouraged to spend it. This consumerism-centric money powers the current consumption-based economy. Meanwhile, in the Bitcoin economy, people will be more reluctant to give up their money, since BTC is precious and will increase in value over time. Altcoins, however, is more like fiat since people (or at least me) aren't that reluctant to spend it, but it comes with the major volatility issue.

Now, back to the OP. If it's related to the custodian or non-custodian thing, both have pros and cons. There's this fractional reserve in the bank that can cause a bank run if the control system isn't working properly. Embezzlement and corruption are not a myth but happened multiple times in the past for both Fiat Bank and CEX. You can contact their CS but if there's no money there, you'll get nothing. Conversely, the non-custodian means you, with your keys, 100% control your money. CEX isn't the ideal thing that happened in crypto, but it's what we have and is working now.
114  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Is age a limitation in Bitcoin on: April 07, 2024, 09:18:48 AM
Holy shit.  Both this thread, and OP's framing of the topic has to do with bitcoin, but you seem to not even know how to use the word bitcoin in your post
Holy shit, my apologies for going full retard, sir...
Here's the revised version

Yeah, but you need traditional banking to cash out or deposit to CEX... So even though no direct age barrier exists in Bitcoin, there are indirect barriers. Theoretically, you could search for P2P cash - Bitcoin DEX without KYC, but it may not exist in your area.

In the future, however, if Bitcoin becomes mainstream we no longer need exchanges, age is 100% no longer a problem.
115  Local / Ekonomi, Politik, dan Budaya / Re: Apakah konflik di Palestina tidak dikatagorikan sebagai pelanggaran HAM berat,? on: April 07, 2024, 08:49:07 AM
Tentu pelanggaran HAM berat, tapi masalahnya semua perang adalah pelanggaran HAM berat dan kedua negara ini sedang berperang. Negara lain ga bisa terlalu mengatur karena kekuatan yang sedang berperang ini powerfull (Israel). Kalau diibaratkan ya ada duel antara pemuda kekar berotot dan pemuda kurus lemah, pemuda kurus lemah dipukulin ama pemuda kekar ditonton ama orang-orang yang ga brani melerai gegara (1) takut, (2) bukan urusan mereka, (3) ga ada untungnya. Mungkin kalau masyarakat kompak dan yakin kalau pemuda kurus lemah itu yang benar, mereka akan bergerak demi kemanusiaan, tapi masalahnya terjadi perbedaan pendapat juga antara siapa yang salah yang berujung perkelahian.
116  Local / Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) / Re: Guys tau cara masukin bitcoin ke SPT nggak? on: April 03, 2024, 06:06:58 PM
Menurut ente om, penghasilan dari (Freelance) kek Signature dll yang emang dikirimnya (Crypto) harusnya kan masuk ke Pajak Penghasilan.
Betul, idealnya seperti itu.

Pernah coba masukin ke (PPH Final Crypto) gak ? Semacem kayak:
- Nerima pembayaran freelance dalam bentuk crypto, masih belum bersih
- Kemudian, kita deposit ke Exchange
- Jual asset kita
- Sudah di potong pajak (PPH-Final)
- Kemudian, dana yang masuk rekening sudah bersih terhitung pajak final

Jadi kita tingal report doang ke pajak + udah PAJAK Final bukan Pajak Penghasilan. Make sense gak sih ini ? apakah akan berpengaruh nantinya kalau misalkan ada pengecekan.

Ane yakin perbandingan antara Pajak Penghasilan dengan PPH Final Crypto, lebih kecil PPH Final Crypto ketimbang Pajak Penghasilan. Selain kecil, lebih mudah karena emang sudah otomatis terpotong pajak setiap transaksi yang dilakuin.
Make sense kalau jumlahnya tidak terlalu besar. Kan ane udah pernah bilang:

- Beli: PPN 0.11%
- Jual: PPh Final 0.1%

Jadi tidak ada double taxation di sini, kalau itu pure kegiatan trading & investasi...

Lain halnya kalau gaji dalam bentuk kripto, itu nanti hasil rupiahnya kalau tidak diinput ke penghasilan yang dikenai PPh, agan keliatan tidak berpenghasilan... bisa kena selidik kalau jumlahnya besar IMO. https://www.reddit.com/r/finansial/comments/1798lj2/pajak_salary_cryptocurrency/

Jadinya ini masih ranah yang banyak tanda tanya kek diskusi di Reddit, ada yang berpendapat (1) Ga boleh dong double tax kan sudah final. (2) Ada yang berpendapat pakai aturan di luar negeri, habis kena pajak kripto > lalu kena pajak penghasilan (double tax). (3) Kalau ditanya jawab aja penghasilan dari trading bukan signature. IMO kalau penghasilan masih kecil ga bakal dicek, kecil itu ya <500jt per tahun.
117  Local / Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) / Re: Guys tau cara masukin bitcoin ke SPT nggak? on: April 03, 2024, 11:48:55 AM
Setau ane pajaknya sudah final alias ga ada capital gain.
Masuk ke SPT ya di bagian penghasilan yang dikenakan pajak final.
118  Other / Off-topic / Re: The challenges of protecting children from gambling on: April 02, 2024, 06:03:03 PM
Just make sure no social worker, or neighbor sees you doing it because in many countries they will take your children away. I've heard that in the EU, especially Sweden and the Nederlands if someone finds out you hit your child even once you'll get the police knocking on your door.  For the record, I don't beat mine, but I do shout and threaten them at times with a TV or sweets ban because there's no other way of getting to that little brain of theirs.
Relax mate, I'm not in Europe Grin
That's how we "educate" our children... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZabye0YJGg
Thanks for the reminder, I should've put the disclaimer: may not be suitable for your culture, DWYOR.
119  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why technical analysis is not reliable on: April 02, 2024, 05:00:52 PM
Anything that uses past/historical data as a basis or predictor for future outcomes is always unreliable. If you want to predict the price of a coin in the future with certainty, you'll also have to predict the dynamics (including crypto events) that will happen in the future, which is impossible. Therefore TA always comes with probability, and the longer the time frame, the higher the deviation.
120  Other / Off-topic / Re: The challenges of protecting children from gambling on: April 02, 2024, 04:33:58 PM
- Knowledge is a must, teach them about probability and how the house edge works.
- If you find them gambling, discipline beat them if their age is still suitable for belting and stuff.
- If they are already addicted to gambling, seek professional help.
- If nothing works, kick them out.
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