 There is now a mighty mass of bitcoins purchased since April 1 above current levels and yet unsold. Back in August 2011, the first and greatest capitulation of that bubble had two legs, dropping over three days. I believe the situation permits a breather at ~115 for a day, then another deep plunge - to the extent that a single carefully selected instance from 2011 serves to model all such bitcoin bubbles. |
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I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.
(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)
didn't you just say we weren't going to see $115 ever again? $115 never again, takers?
Rpietila revealed in another post that because he manages bitcoin investments on behalf of clients, one should not take what he says publicly for what he takes to heart. |
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I recently decided to go through some of the posts from the 2011 bubble, so here is some of what I found. Feel free to read the threads to get a better understanding of what people were thinking. June 11, 2011"Heads up! Market Bottom? You can buy now for under $22/BTC..." "...this is a high reward / somewhat low risk time to buy" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=14914.0I needn't tell you what happened next, but this was where we dropped below $13 and stabilized around $20, dropping to around $17 by the time MtGox got hacked. July 18, 2011"There are no rallies. There are no crashes. There is just a slow, steady slide." "I dont think its gonna go down to 7" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29900.0It stayed stable at $14, but... August 03, 2011"I think we could nick $6 short-term, but looking at $8 in the mid-term" "I can't help but feel we haven't seen the bottom yet" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34053.0Both statements were right-on. August 15, 2011"...a reversed Head & Shoulders bottom formation has developed" "...a target price of around 13,5 USD/BTC can be expected" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37296.0After bouncing between $11 and $12 dollars the next few days, we dropped to around $8. September 07, 2011"We have seen the bottom. $6.12 will be the starting point for a long road upward." "We will never see $6.12 again." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42094.0A few days latter, the price dropped to just over $4 and stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further. September 09, 2011"It is following the trend perfectly, now is the time to get in" "If it drops below $4 today ... will you shut up?" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42495.0"Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42514.0Stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further. October 22, 2011"buy, buy, buy!!11111" "The $3 wall: the gift that keeps on giving." "We're not going to make it beyond $3. Go ahead, watch." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49389.0We broke above $3 and later dropped back to $2. But, if you bought at this time, you were golden. Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed this. I encourage more of you to go back and check the old threads out! @Maged This recollection is so awesome! I am quoting here for comparison vis-a-vis the current trader sentiment. |
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I recently decided to go through some of the posts from the 2011 bubble, so here is some of what I found. Feel free to read the threads to get a better understanding of what people were thinking. June 11, 2011"Heads up! Market Bottom? You can buy now for under $22/BTC..." "...this is a high reward / somewhat low risk time to buy" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=14914.0I needn't tell you what happened next, but this was where we dropped below $13 and stabilized around $20, dropping to around $17 by the time MtGox got hacked. July 18, 2011"There are no rallies. There are no crashes. There is just a slow, steady slide." "I dont think its gonna go down to 7" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29900.0It stayed stable at $14, but... August 03, 2011"I think we could nick $6 short-term, but looking at $8 in the mid-term" "I can't help but feel we haven't seen the bottom yet" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34053.0Both statements were right-on. August 15, 2011"...a reversed Head & Shoulders bottom formation has developed" "...a target price of around 13,5 USD/BTC can be expected" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37296.0After bouncing between $11 and $12 dollars the next few days, we dropped to around $8. September 07, 2011"We have seen the bottom. $6.12 will be the starting point for a long road upward." "We will never see $6.12 again." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42094.0A few days latter, the price dropped to just over $4 and stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further. September 09, 2011"It is following the trend perfectly, now is the time to get in" "If it drops below $4 today ... will you shut up?" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42495.0"Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42514.0Stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further. October 22, 2011"buy, buy, buy!!11111" "The $3 wall: the gift that keeps on giving." "We're not going to make it beyond $3. Go ahead, watch." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49389.0We broke above $3 and later dropped back to $2. But, if you bought at this time, you were golden. Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed this. I encourage more of you to go back and check the old threads out! @Maged This recollection is so awesome! |
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Is that a real ask wall at 121? Could put a cap on the move upwards if bid volume drops down.  |
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And for comparison with the recent drop from $145 is this analogous chart from August 2011. Note that the price dropped over 50% from the failed attempt at a resistance point, and then proceeded to recover nearly all the losses.  |
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There is of course the possibility that we see both 25 USD and 250000 USD per BTC within the next five years. +1 |
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Buy as much <100 as you can. Agreed, but patience I believe will be rewarded. |
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I also trade for other entities than my personal position so actually it would be best to not listen to me at all. You should put that in your signature. |
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[  The technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect. This expected capitulation is not the bottom. |
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Alert - Perhaps the first, and largest, capitulation is at handThe technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect. This expected capitulation is not the bottom.
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Yet another triangle. Momentum building to break through below $127.  |
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21 days after the April 10 peak The last 24 hours have witnessed relentless selling pressure. After the failure to buy through resistance at $146, the bitcoin price has dropped to $128 while making two attempts to sell through support at $127. A third attempt is underway as of this writing. Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I continue to expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs.
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So are bear traps self fulfilling in that someone just has to keep smacking the price around enough that investors lose faith or get bored or whatever long enough that the money flows out? I do not understand what you mean. Here is a common definition of a bear trap from Investopedia ... A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not. A bear trap prompts traders to place shorts on the stock or index, since they expect the underlying to decline in value. Instead of declining further, the investment stays flat, or slightly recovers. |
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Relentless selling pressure. |
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Anyone see a buy order get a piece of one of these ephemeral walls?
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Explain this 'motivation to sell'. Commonly, stop loss orders are used by traders to limit losses without regard to duration after purchase. Therefore, as prices drop below $135 - that I have labelled as the start of this bubble's Sucker's Rally - those dropping prices are increasingly likely to trigger stop-loss sell orders. |
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Threatening ask wall.  |
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Walls after the move down to 132.  |
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$133 is half the all time high of $266 and thus could be an expected point of resistance for the price to retrace back upwards.
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