I disagree with the premise, most people will take off half the winnings after any sizable win.   Im not saying they maintain complete wisdom, may come to add back onto the table the same winnings they took away earlier but often in the moment of winning people do quite often realize they are lucky and reduce the risk of losing it immediately.  Others will keep increasing the bet as they are winning, but I think thats only some and most dont believe in an endless winning streak.
  My general take if I win a loss is coming, I need to reduce size to win overall; I always 50/50 in win or loss though its never that simple.

BTC price right now is below the Feb 13th peak so it is challenging prior highs and so resistance and support that has been useful so far to maintaining prices.   25306 was the peak price on that date and its a couple hundred below that now.   Theres no solid absolute line to define the support, it will vary where the volume was at that time but it impacts on perceptions.   Holding this area is very relevant to the bullish pattern some take in 2023 being true.
  Actually its true at the start of this thread, mid August we did also challenge this area and recover upwards a bit.  To pull this far is further revision and its worth considering the breadth of this thread in the time and volume put into BTC while its been existence did we gain some stability in this area or we more certain to fail below this price first tested almost 4 weeks ago.
  Almost this entire time of near a month a tight range was kept 25500 to 26500 and its below that now, also end Aug it challenged upwards and reverted.  Markets are up today and ok recently imo however Dollar itself as an index to other FIAT has improved some, not significantly only 1%.  I think sideways is my only conclusion, if we leave and break range more of a conclusion can be drawn. 

I got a good idea of what forms it, the lack of value in a transaction especially the lack of price certainty.   If inflation is occurring some will equate this to growth, nominal figures rise.    Whats actually happening is during my business I might barely make a profit for all my efforts, by the time I order the base commodities and processed with labor a product to sell, distributed and retailed this product;  all this amounts to time for inflation to deduct any profit margin.
   Quite easily any business activity is attacked like acid decay over time, reduced and impaired till value gained is near zero with nominal figures only showing some gain for efforts and investment made.  Any product or business I can flip over night becomes the bias in the economy.  Nobody will want to stand around long enough to lose money on their balance sheet to this inflation tax from government.
  Price controls dont work, whatever came next it wasnt any worse then pretending you dictate a price.  Ultimately government orders amount to violence on the economy, its brutalizing in its effect and damage done.  By that I mean if you disagree with a price control you become a criminal, its not a solution to anything actually you have reduced the market, increased rigidity and the situation with fracture imo   Any time production drops you can cause harm and it easily raises the price (vs demand which is unaltered) so price control ironically can actually raise a price.

  Government with its thumb on the scales can easily start a failure situation, at the least supply will ship aboard.    Energy export was banned till recently I think and there's dozens of anti competitive laws causing problems for industry and an open market to be most efficient.  https://www.cato.org/blog/russian-oil-table-jones-act-serves-barrier-using-domestic-supplies

I dont agree it has to be fake, a few countries not many back every currency note with equal resources on demand; in main however FIAT means debt.   The intention for the value to be real is there but then politics occurs and standards slip.   The idea central banks arent compromised in their judgement is a make believe scenario, they can and are called to account by political entities quite often.   Human nature gives in to whats easiest, since people do expire in recessions from the job losses etc. I understand why people give up and abandon the value of money vs hard decisions.
  Its too tempting to pay every new bill with a freshly printed cheque paid for by someone else a few years from now.  No proper budget is required, with some countries this quickly fails as there is little demand for that currency or debt denominated.  The danger with a world reserve currency is there is always demand there and the people who pay the price for failure in a currency standard might be the other side of the world with no representation they dont matter.

Food prices will increase inline with oil pretty much, that would be one of the easiest ways to tell inflation in pricing is likely to continue.  Also fertilizer is another price to follow for cost of production but as I understand it food prices are rising because cost to produce is rising.  Generally the world is demanding more refined foods and a greater amount of meat means more demand for food to feed live stock, enough factors for prices to rise over a decade and thats what I expect.

The supply given is from reserves already known and held, I get that placed with a person who gains interest its far more likely to be sold to then circulate hence in markets and order books its dilution of strength.  However the overall monetary base for FUN hasnt been increased in this transaction, so I would say we mislabel FUN negative as its not as it might appear short term in trading terms.    
  Presently its not worth selling interest in that way, I have done that in the past but only in a minor way and mostly I accumulated and gained tiers.  Because of the BTC cycle and where we are presently, its no surprise that many parts of crypto wont boom with BTC price losing most of its gains and now very slowly recovering.
  Generally quite a few people do follow interest by that price action without fireworks there is no light for them; its wrong but in mainstream terms thats what makes headlines and to some people all definitions of success or failure are determined by a price being high or low.  The price is secondary in the end, thats been true of BTC that leaving in negative years was not the best idea and its likely true for any long term blockchain also.

This would ignore the defined value for bear market, just like a bull market its the regular set of gains.    There is no regular decline in pricing for sometime now, it might be sedate and some suppose even dead from no movement but thats not a regular decline in price.  We rally, we pull back and circle and twist and in effect just go sideways.  Much frustration but no regular pattern resulting downwards, I would actually argue there is some pattern upwards but you have to zoom out to over 9 months for that and perhaps too far to see.
  We can be fairly certain no reliable trend down is established, we have the lack of pattern if anything.  In spring there was a price channel and it was negative, but we broke out of that upwards.  Sadly it failed to go far, just past 30k but a failed move up is not what fits a bear market.   Some say any decline more then 20%, I dont find that too reliable.

Pandemic was extremely contractive to the economy overall, the later boom effect was from easy money and printing by central government which is a distortion.   Same deal occurred in 2008, harsh pullback then eventually cheap money came into play.
  The critical point to observe in 2020 was DXY in July was pulling below 100 and it did not return back to that standard for some time.  Just recently we attempted but failed to come below 100 dxy again.

SEC would mostly be regulating securities law, the idea of for profit investment schemes.  I dont know the legal definitions and how they view each blockchain but some companies especially the centralized ones willl work with government to stay in the clear.   The stable coin idea is a myth imo but they arent alone, many things completely recommended and regulated can fall apart despite ticking all the boxes they arent able to stay balanced.  The economy is not a government invention any more then the tide on the shore line does whats its told to any degree.
The dollar is global which can make that idea confusing because it could be most of the world is cast in that shadow, if only because trading partners dont want to be out of step on banking regulations I suppose.

I dont disagree, I had the same feeling just irrational losses.  My main take on that if it were so biased then it should be an easy win taking the other side of that bet wherever possible and often it is.   But really the loss percentage reflects lack of time or duration of betting in that game.  Put down a single large bet and lose and its a 100% absolute loss, that game never gave anything back and we all know a single loss totally possible but the higher the number of attempts to win usually brings about the actual proper percentage win that is realistically available.  My main argument would be to pace yourself, split the amount for gambling that day up by however many attempts to play and win that game there will be.  IF a person has only 5 mins to gamble, they have to rush and place all the money at once, its entirely unideal but if theres a planned amount of time spread the bets over the duration possible to try and win and actually get a profit from playing.

Price is wavering back and forth at the moment just on the edge of the base reward being one way or another.   I worked out if I buy wheel spins at the lower cost and realize the higher base reward after BTC price drops its a daily 2% yield on just that simple back and forth.  Definitely seems worth doing, though its only a small amount it happens so regularly I might as well use what I got as the opportunity presents itself.   
  BTC wont waver forever but its often doing this kind of behaviour, I'd still class it as underlying positive though it pulls back from its gains.

Reminds me of the endless JP Morgan vs silver argument, a bank shorting the silver commodity but I read also JPM owns a silver mine so quite possibly they can afford to pay off all the shorts if the price were to rise I suppose.  Also JPM is the custodian of the ETF SLV which holds large amounts of silver and gains some charge for that service and its daily trade.   
  Its probably not as simple as it appears and maybe Blackrock is involved in some of that mining capacity that moved across from China, now they can be involved in both sides of the markets.  Plain BTC by itself has no yield hence Im not surprised when banks get involved they want to be paid every day in some way by playing the markets strength and weakness in price, it can be very profitable to do so if they are able.

Lottery gambling isn't limited much in my experience but the main kind of brake on that kind of gambling involvement is the time scale, usually at least a week to see if you win or not.  Typically gambling in any instant way is considered more regulated and more likely to produce addictive type behavior because  its related to your immediate emotional response and especially vulnerable people could get reliant on that feeling beyond reason and gamble more then they should.

They dont have to apply very high taxes, the worth of gambling is like a few select industries its recession proof and so more valuable then a normal tax revenue stream which will dry up in hard times.    The danger of high taxation is you drive that business into the hands of your opposing tax regimes, so many tropical island locations willing to levy no tax at all for companies that support their relatively small nation and fiscal budget.  Its much better to work with gambling industry, most often is a kind of revenue share where say 30% of the take is given to government and so making the tax revenue even more reliable.  Normal business of course can divert or reinvest profits to avoid taxes and so even big industry like oil and gas can go missing at times from available government cash resources.

China is hardly the best way to judge US policy, its a horrible regime victimizing their people for generations with millions dead from the poor choices continually made by that military dictatorship.  If this is how we judge the strength of any country we're in trouble.  China holds quite alot of Dollar bonds from their export economy, Japan holds a trillion in treasury debt last I heard and they have horrible currency problems with their QE programs starting 33 years ago and never stopping or recovering any value since that inception.  
  Its far more obvious with Japan but China has demographic fallout that will greatly weaken the country.   Both countries have a falling working population which amplifies stress on the economy due to a very likely rising labor cost to all industry.  Japan managed to outrun many negatives by development and technology deployment to greater efficiency, additionally with export of factory production but theres great doubt any other country could juggle all that quite as well and so China will suffer more possibly; other countries can already undercut their cost of production.

Consideration of probability in outcomes is an established science for hundreds of years.   Depends if you identify gambling as having to require money, that part is more leisure.  The idea of risk based games with unknown outcomes is perfectly healthy and as productive as any other game; indirectly but investigating probability is regularly deployed in multiple industries for all kinds of reasons mostly to reduce risk by classifying each outcome in any situation from drug trials to building bridges.  I relate all those subjects to a gamble, free markets in economic studies has been described as a game and so on.   Its all quite justified for game playing just like I'd argue chess is good for you

Prediction long term is probably alot safer then the short term ironically, despite the near term being within immediate sight it can also be more erratic and harder to predict in its direction.
  I first of all just try to define the boundaries then we should observe strength within that area and finally decide if we can break out positively upwards or break down to a new low for recent action.  Define price action in that way and you start to build a picture but the most reliable time frames are much greater then a day or week for BTC.  
   Easiest prediction, we will repeat mostly because volume builds strength and repeating an area builds that volume.

Recent range 4hr bars I'm looking at but not expecting any special conclusion before next week.  My main take was our relation to 50 day average which is as high as 28k and not within our apparent range.   Not exactly prediction but my general take is above a weekly average we are positive acting, the blue line here roughly; below that measure we could view BTC as not acting with strength.

I used to take surveys of various levels of importance, mostly low level quick survey (xbox points and such like) however I was once offered a thousand dollars just to fill out a 20 minute survey on my shopping preferences.   Somehow the survey company believed I was earning half a million a year or something silly like that and made this offer, I did not realize in time or I might have answered appropriately in order to qualify for the survey payment.  Half way through the survey they realized yes this guy is actually poor and thanked me for my time and closed the question answer session, zero compensation because I was too honest unfortunately.
   Im not sure why they thought I was so rich, if I had half a mil earnings I would not waste 20 minutes of my scarce highly valuable spare time on really painful questions so boring especially when payment being delivered is so fragile.

Demographics alters alot of things for advertising, some parts of the economy do not ever watch TV.  Often this is young people, up and coming target markets.  If you can supply data on people off the radar, its going to become alot more worthwhile.  This data worth sounds like general search engine stuff, non specific not much insight.
  I dont have specifics but a crypto blockchain is related this, they give data on customers and payments for using their browser etc. occurs.   

No need to lack any enthusiasm at the current price action, its an irony of humanity we happier about buying into BTC at double the price its at now then get the current deal which gives twice as many units for our value exchanged.    Its part of what we in market get the wrong way round but I bet volume is greater at higher numbers.   The price action thats occurring today with a recovery above 25k, if that sticks onto the daily bars especially continuing past 28k, its showing how suddenly BTC is positive despite prior negativity apparent prior.   Alot of the time I think the most negative price action is purely lack of volume, lack of buying which is still some concern as imo BTC requires to develop its normal business done not be reliant on this speculative sentiment
  In the end you have to be more sensible then the swings of emotion the market goes through every day or week and every time scale.   Easiest way to do that is focus long term and buy in on a regular basis or dollar cost average many more are aware of this strategy now.   I do this with stocks, with commodities and the main question is the ten year question of development and demand, if thats there then no reason to lack any passion purely off the public lacking patience to continue sustained involvement at every price.

I think trade will be done in BTC if other alternatives prove unable and extremes like national currency does fail then its already proven BTC is of use to the common people.   To be a safe haven is more then just transacting, that suggests stability beyond other things like just buying food that keeps or anything that is more stable then the failed currency.   I think most will not look at BTC as a safe haven but for speculation and various uses mostly digital, long term I think thats the market BTC is best suited to.