hmm, I wonder if there are any of those left *scratches head*  If the COIN ETF is approved, perhaps it will open a large market of private investors in the US (savings and retirement accounts, etc.) Latin America could be such a market, but there does not seem to be a population of commodities speculators like the Chinese one. Africa has the same problem, and is much poorer than China. India seems to be wary of bitcoin (perhaps by memories of Mavrodi's scams). But if they buy the COIN ETF it in now way effects Bitcoin price or ecosystem.  They already own the bitcoins they want to unload and collect a management fee to "securely" hold them. Buyers of that ETF are not Bitcoin buyers or people interested in Bitcoin ecosystem. They are traders of IOUs. what you think the winklevii's motive is, or the rtf customers - that's opinion How an ETF affects the price of an underlying asset - that's well understood. Your post suggested that you didn't understand the latter, the search results I linked to explain it. If lots of people buy the etf and its price goes up then the BTC price gets driven up through arb, so yes buying the ETF does affect BTC |
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I know what you mean. It's a hairy ride, but life is full of ups and downs. Let's hope this counts as a "higher low"!
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hmm, I wonder if there are any of those left *scratches head* If the COIN ETF is approved, perhaps it will open a large market of private investors in the US (savings and retirement accounts, etc.) Latin America could be such a market, but there does not seem to be a population of commodities speculators like the Chinese one. Africa has the same problem, and is much poorer than China. India seems to be wary of bitcoin (perhaps by memories of Mavrodi's scams). But if they buy the COIN ETF it in now way effects Bitcoin price or ecosystem. |
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Yes, you are an idiot. At the point you sent Gox money it was painfully obvious what was unfolding.
I lost money at bitcoinica too. I bet you saw that coming as well. |
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 Nah, plenty where that came from  Reverse psychology my old mutton cheeks, I knew this would rile the bears I hate the slow bleed. I want capitulation-pop! not slow and steady drop! |
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I just can't believe how many bulltards there are. I like this word as it wasn't around in 2012. This is why I think bitcoin still has way to go lower. It is far from the stages of capitulation and fear.
Just read any of the posts, you have most people saying stuff like below. Just read and you will see what I mean.
Great time to buy.
I'm happy that it is this low I can buy more.
I want it to fall lower to buy more.
It will be back above $300 in no time.
Great buying opportunity.
Nobody is talking about the fact that it continues to fall. Just the fact that it is better buying opportunities.
This tells me that we are probably in the Denial stage at this point. People still denying the fact that bitcoin has fallen for over a year and keeps going lower. Denial that bitcoin hasn't reached mainstream even though it was on the news everyday and had its greatest chance to go mainstream.
I believe there is still so much room to fall. Bitcoin was steady at $10-$13 for a while and it just spiked up too fast.
I personally wouldn't buy bitcoin unless it was priced below $50 dollars. To me it is not worth more than $50 max.
Like I already told you guys. Stop buying bitcoin as an investment to get rich until the price long term stabilizes for over a year or two years. Like it was a great opportunity to buy with it was $12 because it held that price for a long time.
I'd agree, but I don't think its linear progression market has become too complex for that now, I think we have been oscillating between denial and depression (and stages inbetween) for some time e.g. on this one (plucked at random others exist) http://blog.stocktwits.com/wp-content/uploads/original_15972121-700x370.pngI am just one of the bulltards though, so I'm always perma-hope... and your posts are always a releif, so.... |
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Most likely yes, but not today. I wonder though if hitting $266 will have a significant psychological impact on the markets at this point, since it's pretty clear that we're still stuck in this long bear trend.
Bitcoin's star is fading, and let's face it, there just really isn't much to be excited about right now. Sentiment is low. When [large company x] accepts bitcoin, it's like, ho hum, no big deal. In 2013 that would be huge news!
Now it's like, the Twinklevoss twins are still working on their ETF. Yes, any day now...
Personally I could give a shit about a bitcoin ETF, so I'm pretty sure nobody else in the general public cares either. That's where we're at.
definitely, whenever I think something, I always assume *everybody* thinks exactly the same as me! the world is so confusing to me if I consider any other possibilities!  Aren't you the guy who this morning claimed that the drop was over at $297 and that we'd be $100,000 by the end of this year? Yeah... don't really care what you have to think. edit: I found it! This guy claims we'll reach $560,000 by the end of this year! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0lmao... I can't believe that you haven't started posting under a new account yet. He's also one of the guys who sent a shitload of money to Mt Gox when the btc price was crashing so hard on that exchange - yeah, he's not the sharpest tool. I bought goxcoins for cents on the dollar because it looked to me like there was more value to be had there. When the gox bankruptcy concludes and I get zero I am an idiot. If the bankruptcy concludes and I get more back than what I paid, then I was a shrewd investor. Once again, I know my downside, I know my stake. I know my risk. Outcome is TBC. You can pretend you *know* the outcome all you want, truth is neither of us do. Until the wave function collapses the position of the particle remains unknown. Yeah I'm an idiot. |
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What do you think might happen to bitcoin's price in the coming week?
I have not the slightest idea!The one honest thing sgbett has ever posted with his shill account! He's a "legendary" poster. The only thing legendary is how many times your predictions have been wrong. Is someone paying you per post to pump their holdings? It's what I always post. I don't need yours or anyone else's validation I'm comfortable with my *opinion*, it's nice when people agree. It's better if they can present a solid counter though. I'm also quite happy to be wrong. It doesn't hurt you know, you'll figure it out one day. I have an interest in BTC price as a measure of its success in becoming a new currency (insert morpheus/neo meme) of some sort, maybe global or multinational. Maybe it will address some of the deficiencies of the current global financial system, maybe not. As BTC price appreciates I hedge against its collapse by skimming some fiat. So yes, I have a vested interest in the price rising. I think its a bit silly to think that what *I* say on some internet forum will affect trading of a $4bn market cap 'commodity'. So I find your question interesting. *especially* as you already said what I say isn't important! Do *you* think I'm being paid to pump someone's holdings? My posts are usually honest, often they include irreverent humour, sometimes I speculate on possible future outcomes. Sometimes I post meme pics, or get involved in a flame war or whatever. Largely this forum is entertainment for me. This is just honest: I'm a guy OTI with a few bitcoins that wants to see it succeed because I think its cool, I think its generally of net benefit to mankind and because if it goes to say $100k a coin I can buy a Porsche or something, just for a laugh and then put my custom plates on it. Is that so hard to believe? What's your story? |
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Most likely yes, but not today. I wonder though if hitting $266 will have a significant psychological impact on the markets at this point, since it's pretty clear that we're still stuck in this long bear trend.
Bitcoin's star is fading, and let's face it, there just really isn't much to be excited about right now. Sentiment is low. When [large company x] accepts bitcoin, it's like, ho hum, no big deal. In 2013 that would be huge news!
Now it's like, the Twinklevoss twins are still working on their ETF. Yes, any day now...
Personally I could give a shit about a bitcoin ETF, so I'm pretty sure nobody else in the general public cares either. That's where we're at.
definitely, whenever I think something, I always assume *everybody* thinks exactly the same as me! the world is so confusing to me if I consider any other possibilities! Aren't you the guy who this morning claimed that the drop was over at $297 and that we'd be $100,000 by the end of this year? Yeah... don't really care what you have to think.edit: I found it! This guy claims we'll reach $560,000 by the end of this year! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0lmao... I can't believe that you haven't started posting under a new account yet. then why are you even responding dear chap? im not posting under a different account because this one works just fine. |
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Most likely yes, but not today. I wonder though if hitting $266 will have a significant psychological impact on the markets at this point, since it's pretty clear that we're still stuck in this long bear trend.
Bitcoin's star is fading, and let's face it, there just really isn't much to be excited about right now. Sentiment is low. When [large company x] accepts bitcoin, it's like, ho hum, no big deal. In 2013 that would be huge news!
Now it's like, the Twinklevoss twins are still working on their ETF. Yes, any day now...
Personally I could give a shit about a bitcoin ETF, so I'm pretty sure nobody else in the general public cares either. That's where we're at.
definitely, whenever I think something, I always assume *everybody* thinks exactly the same as me! the world is so confusing to me if I consider any other possibilities! What do you think might happen to bitcoin's price in the coming week? I have not the slightest idea! The best suggestion I have heard is that 'max pain' is below the previous ATH where nobody expects it to go, but no lower than $200 because that's where everyone wants to buy back in. So probably it will go there at some point (next week maybe? or maybe not?) but I think it will probably happen fast. It will do this because of emergent behaviour and not because of any market manipulation. Some will make bank and tell tales of how they are the greatest traders of all time for predicting accurately. Those who lost will keep quiet. I have no further cash that I wish to (can afford to) risk buying, I continue to hold as instructed by my head. I still think its a pretty good bet to be long. EV continues to rise, as market price continues to fall. Interesting divergence. I have no idea what it means, if anything. Or it will bleed, and die. If it does, so be it. |
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Most likely yes, but not today. I wonder though if hitting $266 will have a significant psychological impact on the markets at this point, since it's pretty clear that we're still stuck in this long bear trend.
Bitcoin's star is fading, and let's face it, there just really isn't much to be excited about right now. Sentiment is low. When [large company x] accepts bitcoin, it's like, ho hum, no big deal. In 2013 that would be huge news!
Now it's like, the Twinklevoss twins are still working on their ETF. Yes, any day now...
Personally I could give a shit about a bitcoin ETF, so I'm pretty sure nobody else in the general public cares either. That's where we're at.
definitely, whenever I think something, I always assume *everybody* thinks exactly the same as me! the world is so confusing to me if I consider any other possibilities! |
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It'll probably stabilize in the $0-10 range sometime later this year. Maybe some cultists will still HODL their almost worthless coins bought in the three digit range, and some child pornographers and drug addicts will still be using their coins to buy various illegal goods and services on the deep web. That's the best case scenario.
cultists don't hodl - they just pretend to so you think it's safe to buy because it would be backed by said permabulls when it really isn't Criminals don't use it too because they prefer DRK So who is the hodler actually? i know this is hard to believe but there are some people who don't stand to lose their shirt if bitcoin goes to zero. there are people that understand the notion of this being a binary bet with finite (and thus perfectly calculable) downside and potentially unlimited upside. there are people that understand the notion of antifragility, black swan events, psychology of markets, humans and whole other bunch of stuff. all of these things probably play some part in the future of bitcoin. there are also some people who are just in it for the laugh. There are lots of people just like you that think its going to zero, it will fail etc There are a whole bunch other people who are not like you. So tell me now is it really so likely *everybody* will sell *everything* right down to zero, and *everyone* will switch off their miners? Thats what you seem to be implying? This is trivially proven wrong by the fact that a) I have at least one bitcoin b) I have at least one miner and that I will never switch off my miner and I will never 'sell' all my bitcoin. If one guys is crazy enough to do this, then perhaps there are more... |
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The 2 papers that come to mind are Sirer's Selfish Mining paper and the Red Balloon paper from Microsoft. I've listened to Sirer talk before which is even more puzzling that he can be so pedantic about it. For Christ's sake, if you're going to stake your academic reputation on such a theory, at least attack the network to prove it or release the code to meet everyone inspect it for flaws in reasoning or assumptions. He won't do either which should show you what the quality of his thesis is.
Well, Ph. D. theses are often like that.  Speaking as an advisor, after I have stolen five of the best years of someone's life, it would be a crime to send him/her away with empty hands. Seriously, I did not quite understand how Sirer's Selfish Mining attack works either, but I did not spend much time trying to. Anyway, even if it works, it does not seem to be fatal, but only make life less fair for miners. Or is it claimed to be worse than that? I haven't seen the other paper you mention. To me though, as through the 5 other bubbles we've had, is the protocol still hasn't been hacked, tx's are going up, time has advanced (6yrs), dev is getting done, user adoption is growing worldwide, VC's investment continues to accelerate, and huge companies like Microsoft are coming on board.
Well, I am not so optimistic about those things: * By my understanding of the past bubbles, a new large bubble would require a new large market, comparable to that of the Chinese speculators who adopted Bitcoin in Nov/2013. * The cryptographic security of the basic protocol, properly implemented, is assured as long as the basic tools are. However, people can easily make mistakes when using or even implementing it. See the recent BCI fiasco, for example. Claiming that those problems are not bugs "in the protocol" is a weak argument; for prospective users, what matters is the system's security, not the security of the central part. It is not reassuring to know that Chernobyl, TMI, and Fukushima were not caused by flaws in the physics of nuclear fusion, but to errors in its use. * The blockchain traffic has been falling recently: tx/day down 18% last week, BTC/day down 44% last month, USD/day down 55%. * VC investment is almost all in ventures that will make money no matter what happens to the price. Most merchants who "accept bitcoin", including the large ones, do not want to touch it, they want dollars. When asked about its future plans for bitcoin, Microsoft dodged the question. The few minimally reliable data on bitcoin usage for e-payment through BitPay show stagnation in BTC amount over 2014, drop in USD amount. hmm, I wonder if there are any of those left *scratches head* |
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According to the theory of maximum pain the low would be under the symbolic 266 frontier, just to panic everyone, but above 200 for the sellers would not be able to benefit their panic sells... So maybe just in the middle... 233 ?  this sounds most likely of all - a huge and rapid spike too, so the most people get wiped out, and the fewest people can take a new position before the price shoots back up. |
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I think that the sentiment has become very bearish very fast in the last days... you know what this mean? Big fat green dildos out of nowhere. You short now, confident that "we are going to retest X", "it will bounce only from Y". After all, everybody is saying that. And after you surrender to peer pressure BAM the green dildo of revenge. Then, it will become obvious that you shorted at the bottom.
shhhh! |
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God almighty, this place is exactly like it was in 2010.
2011 2012 2013 2014 |
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Its starting to look like a decent price move on the daily chart, but like you say still not huge volume, this could change quickly if selling continues further down the 280s to 270 mark. Lots of bits could change hands in a very short time and that could be either the capitulation we are looking for, or perhaps mark a historical first where bitcoin breaks below the previous ATH after crashing from the most recent.
That would be interesting indeed.
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Thats more betterer! Go go gadget sellers!
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Interesting how many people think it's going to $50000+.
Interesting is you thinking they're not trolling. Are they? Count my vote amongst them. I'm not. |
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It's getting more and more ludicrous. We are down to 0.25 of the bubble top and there are still people trying to ridicule bears, now even trying to call this a bullrun since it's not flashcrashing instantly to new lower lows. Plz Bull harder! Tell me permabulls: You really think you could convince someone more than yourself believing your poor words? Keep fooling yourself! And by the way: 198 is only 1% below 200. Maybe a good inspiration for your next bullish thread! Hehe I'm not trying to convince anybone if anything I'm just having a little fun People should make their own decisions about whether they think this bear market is terminal. My position has always been clear, but it doesn't mean I have to necessarily be so earnest about it all the time. If I'm wrong then im wrong life goes on I can quite happily live with the consequences of being wrong about holding. I know that neither of us knows who is right, but I know only one of us is prepared to admit it. |
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