Yes, people tend to sell as if there is no tomorrow. We saw that when we reached the modest price 13800. People started selling so heavily that the profit turned into a loss for many. Only a day after the 13800, they kept selling down to 9700! We've seen many such crashes in 2017 and they all ended with 25%+ recovery. The next day it happened! We were back above 11K. I can only imagine how stupid those weak hands felt!

In the same way, we may have such crashes at any price level if the increase is too steep for a short time. We may fall from 50K to 30K for a day, and on the next day to be at 40K, and in 2 weeks above 50K. It could take longer, of course. It could take even a year, like in 2018. This won't be pleasant at all, of course. But if that is the price for becoming a millionaire, so be it!

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

And finally, if someone truly loves Bitcoin, he won't be happy to sell all of them and to stop watching the price. It just doesn't work. He will learn one way or another. After 5 years, when he spent  all of his fiat money, and hears on the news that Bitcoin reached a record heights 10x, 100x or more than the exit price, that feeling will kill all the joy he had when he sold them. Especially, if he has kids, who now have no money for a college or a medical treatment. My point is that we have to think in perspective - not for the next day, month, or year, but for a generation ahead. We have to be very careful what we sell and what we leave for the years to come. I've been thinking about it for 2 years and still don't have a clear and sound plan. I have to wait at least a year and see what will be the price after the next halving. Then I can make a better plan. And hopefully, my emotions won't interfere to sell most of it way too early! The other hard thing is to live with a profit that changes both ways by tens (hundreds, etc.) of thousands each day. That is no easy too! But this is our occupational hazard!

There is a new SEC commissioner Allison Herren Lee. Hopefully she will be in favour of Bitcoin ETF.

https://twitter.com/HesterPeirce/status/1148595617863782401

Ok, so many guys misunderstood it, that I can't ignore it anymore. realsteelboy said AYH which means All Year High, not ATH=All Time High. Please stop misquoting such posts  

The difference is the volume. It was 4x bigger on 3rd July. So it is 4x easier for the bulls to sustain that price now. This year bulls perfected their technique. They wait for the price to stabilize and the volume to drop and then pull the trigger. We will see how high we can go sneaking past the bears without attracting too much volume. The truth is that CB and Bistamp can't handle big volumes as we saw near 13800. The trading bots frenzy fried CB servers on multiple occasions so far. Anyway, I can't understand the n00bs that wait for some appocalyptic drop to enter.  Just buy and wait long enough. But what usually happens is that in such crashes those n00bs get greedy and wait for another crash that never happened. And when they see 2x profit, they can't resist to cash out. Why is so hard to buy at the current price whatever it might be, and set a target at least 5x? I decided for myself 10x target, but I may change it to 20x if I am not in the need for something.

O.o Out of nowhere jump to 11850 11900 and going up. Any news?

I wonder what happened to all those 'pundits', who in December 2017 came here and told us that the old king Bitcoin is ded and the alts are more advanced and going to replace it? Or those shorter trolls that told us the price above 10K is not sustainable. Hello, where are you?  Bitcoin is doing just great and stabilizing above 11K with the typical for the calm days volume and less and less price drops. We may go sideways for several weeks or months, but this is good. Those who waited for 3 months and didn't buy when the price was under 4K, now regret bitterly. In the same way will regret those who didn't buy at 11K, when the next bull run takes us in the hot zone around the ATH.

Many shorters burned this year, and you know it. For 6 months they kept losing money. Finally, there were some profit at the last drop, but who cares. If you are "hodler" and try to make some profit with 10% of your stash, this is just a child game. Ok, lets think about my points. Let's say that at 4500 you had 10% profit. You took it, right? Then patiently you waited for a dip to 3K-ish but it didn't happen and never will be. Then at 13K you enter again and made another 10% profit. You took it, alright? At the same time the hodlers made 4.5x profit without doing anything! Ok, now, let's see the other situation. You want to increase your bitcoin stash and sold multiple times in 2018 with some 10-20% or more increase of the stash. Let's say you doubled your bitcoins in 2018 with 10 trades. And in 2019 you sold at 5K. At the same time the price wen't 4.5K from the bottom, so again you have 2.5x less coins now, if you were just hodling. So what is that you 'respecfully disagree"? But if you think you are smarter than the holders, go ahead, nobody is stopping you. I am just warning the n00bs that think too high of themselves because of 2-3 successfull trades. Bitcoin is not for wanna-be-quick-millionaires n00bs. Bitcoins is for those who value it more than the fiat, tether and the other shitcoins.

I also think today was an important day but from another point of view: Since 2017 each 30%+ crash stopped with a 25% bounce for 1-2 days. On the next days 12% are lost and there are two options. 1. Bulls try to force a bull run to the previous AYH, which always ends by a more prolonged sideways and deeper crashes. 2. The price consolidates with low volume around this price range. This is very important for the stable and organic growth henceforth. Fortunately, this is what is happening right now.



This year is perhaps the best example why hodling is way more profitable than trading. We had 4.5x raise of the price with 2 very short lived dips 20%+. If you are telling me that you predicted both dips and didn't sleep to catch the bottoms, then you are the best trader in the world. But the truth is that 99.99% of the traders didn't sold just at the moments before the price dropped. In all cases hodlers had the biggest profit. However, I must warn you that I sense some complacency and over confidence, that may play a bad game in your future trades. Based on the probability theory and the testimony of many traders, even if you make 10 successfull trades, they may and will be completely annihilated by the 11th, no matter how big genious you are. And then you will be vulnerable to the negative emotions and make other bad choices which may bring a substantial loss. Your philosophy is proven to be wrong by the founders of the HODL movement. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin to be traded for 10% profit and then dumped. If you think so, better go to Poloniex or Binance and trade shitcoins.

Funny video 
https://www.facebook.com/DankCoinMemes/videos/2255367118108623/

It is quite normal after a 20%+ recovery from the crash to lose some steam with 5-10% drops. This is what happened many times in 2017 and after the big crash to 3100 - jump to 4K then back to 3300 for quite a long time. We have 2 possibilities now: to continue upward and reach new AYH's in 1-2 weeks, or to go sideways for a month or two (with a slight upward angle to 13-14K). Going sideways is not pleasant for hodlers, but is the foundation for all major bull runs. This will bring confidence in the new investors, that we are not going to crash after some insane bull stampede like in December 2017. The mentality of the people is such that if we go now straight to 20K, many will sell at least a portion of their stash. This will create a massive pressure with big volume on the market and probably a collapse back to 10K or even below. On the other hand, if we stay above 10K for some time  and then gradually build up for 1-2-3 months to 20K, most of the hodlers won't sell anything in the anticipation of the halving bull run. This will create an opportunity to start the FOMO bull run by crossing the ATH with low volume. In this scenario it is possible to see prices 30K+ by the end of this year.

Good morning WO gang! Good to see 20% bounce took place during the night! Now the weak hands with floating-ready-to-sell bitcoins are gone, we are back on track for new AYH's.  Well played bulls, well played! This is 2017 style classic!

Oh, it's just a funny picture I saw on twitter. Of course I buy each month with the exception of the last because of yearly taxes, insurances and preparation for a vacation. When I return from my vacation, I will continue to buy no matter the price. Those dips started to entartain me and my father. Today we were on a hike in the mountain and talked about bitcoin, where it will go etc.  We've became tough hodlers! And we are a good example to my closest friends. They are converted shitcoin bagholders, and now are determined to became true Bitcoin hodlers.

Bitfinex Repays $100M of Outstanding Loan Facility to Tether
https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/394

I guess by selling bitcoins? This will explain a lot.

Some people are really sick. Bitcoin had so many 30,40,50% crashes and ALWAYS recovered. So, if you are a n00b that sold 30% from the top several days ago, I am sure you are willing to sell another 30% down in the next week, and then 30% in the week after. So just call me, I will buy your coins with 99% discount now, you don't have to wait! Hurry up!

My bet is $27 000. I am bullish that in 2 months we will break the ATH and with a couple of 20%-ish corrections to get there at least as a peak price.
(Last time I thought I was moderate bullish with my Q2 prediciton of 6666. It turned out to be quite bearish  )

This "correction" starts to smell fishy to me. It all started with 800 BTC sell on CB that caused the crash from 13880. There is something suspicious in the way the sells are executed in CB in the last few days. Each time Bitstamp shows buying activity, some fat sell order on CB brings down the price with 3-4%. It looks as if some whale was in a hurry to unload tens of thousands of bitcoins in 11-13K area. And of course the weak hands follow with their panic sells. It may as well be a coordinated bears effort to look like the 2018 long and nasty crashes, but it happens too quickly.  They may try to produce an awful chart, so that trolls will explain how Bitcoin is doomed. But at the same time they hope to cheat the n00bs to sell their precious coins before the halving. If some trolls are telling us that Bitcoin won't go beyond the ATH, they are lying. They know it as much as we do!

Come on, weak hands, continure to sell. You pave the way for a new ATH, just without you! I know pretty well their mentality: "(staring the chart 24/7) Jan-March. "I will wait for prices 2K".... May. "I will wait for 6k"... June. "It is over 13K, I should buy now. It is going to 20K"... One day later, still staring at the chart: It looks awful. I am doomed! I should cut my losses 25% below my investment, because there is no chance  to get near that price ever again".

So, my question for the n00bs is: what are the odds of not reaching 14K again especially after the halving, provided that we hit that price twice already - in 2017 and 2019? I would say pretty close to 100%. I just wonder how the weak hands always lose money joining in massive pumps that usually end bad with a sudden drop and then selling not 1 or 2% but 25-40% and even 84% below their investment point. With such mentality, poverty is knocking on their doors.
...

Regarding the current situation, I think bulls are waiting for the volume to normalize by shaking off the weak hands. This may take some time - from several days to several months. But first, there is a chance for a double bottom at 10300-10500 area and then - boom! A new bull run with series of AYH's. For now RSI shows oversold, and probably bears have no power to destroy this support. But even if they succeed,  I don't think that falling below 10K is bad, since the fools and weak hands will be completely removed and new investors with strong hands will come. I judge from my friends. Finally, they came to the conclusion to invest in Bitcoin and store it on HW, not on exchanges. They are hoping for prices like 6K, but I told them not to wait that much.  Only insane people will sell at 6k, seeing what happened this year.

Tomorrow I will buy a ticket and fly there.