You should sell everything now and rebuy at 5K.

Above 10K at the halivng? I can live with that.  

This is indeed the most hardcore hodling way of thinking. It has some realistic element which most of the hodlers refuse to think about. But unrealistic expectations and beliefs lead to dissapointments which may result in rage quit. I learned to live with all kinds of dissapointments in my modest 2.5 years of hodling. And I stopped measuring my networth in fiat during these years. I am mentally ready to DCA until I retire after 18 years. I think the winner is clear - deflatory and decentralized Bitcoin (by 2040 it practically won't be mined) against the inflatory fiat and stocks of companies that won't exist by then. I would prefer to die with the rebellion, rather than to sell in dissapointment and live without hope under the banner of the fiat empire.

After the yesterday's epic run, I thought some profit taking during the night will occur. Waking up and seeing 9400 so soon after the terrible 13th March is just... incredible!!!

I agree that if someone is not a hardened holder it doesn't matter when he buys. He can sell anytime with a profit<100% or even without profit like mindrust. But if someone enters before 2016 and learns from his mistakes, he could make at least 10 fold profit waiting maximum 2  years. Now the new holders like me who entered in 2017 at prices around $4.4k, have a mere 50% profit. This is still beyond most of the stocks can provide, but it is not to be compared with 10 fold, not to speak 100 fold profits, which one could realize if the buy price was $200 in 2015 and the sell price $20K in December 2017. And there were much more dramatic crashes in the last 3 years than any time interval before that. So  for the new holders  it is becoming increasingly difficult both in terms of time and mental resilience to the crashes. I will be waiting for at least 10 fold profit, i.e., prices above $40K, but I realize that I will have to wait at least 1 more year for that. More probably 2-3 years and less probable (but still possible) more than 3 years. So at the end we compare 100 fold profits for 2 years with 10 fold profit for >5 years.  I am not saying that everyone made that profit, but with the best decisions in both eras, these are the numbers.

The funny thing about miners is that most of them decided to become miners and not Bitcoin investors, because investing in machines looks more stable. They think in terms of current profit and calculate that in 3 years the expenses will be covered and the big profit will start to pour into their bank accounts. This is a huge mistake. The reality is that the current machines will become completely obsolete in 2-3 years and if there is any profit at all, it will be insignificant compared to the direct investment in Bitcoin. Because of the new technology, the halving, and the rising number of miners with free or very cheap electricity (which results in rising of the difficulty), the profits will decline quckly. And this of course delays the ROI date further and further away. Buying of mining equipment makes sense to me only if you have free elecricity or you use it for heating purposes (which I do with my GPU rigs).  If I was more  informed back then and invested in Bitcoin around the prices $400, my profit at the current prices would have been still 10 times bigger than the profit of my rigs. And I was lucky to reach the ROI and get some profit. My friends  ignored my advice and bought gpu rigs instead of investing in Bitcoin. They practically lost most of their investment with an insignificant return.  Theoretically they can sell their gpus, but the prices of the new models with the same parameters is half of what they paid. So the comforting thought about selling equipment is not working either.

The USDT market cap has increased with 1.7 Bil up to 6.3 Bil, since 29th March. With an average price of 9K, this would mean 150K bitcoins.  We don't know the intentions of the USDT buyer(s), but it is possible that some good part of it  will go into Bitcoin. Not that I believe 100% in that. I just won't be surprised if Bitfinex returns with some 2017 style pumps.

Traders job is to trick weak hands like joinov to sell with the trend in fear of losing. Or even better, to lure them into shitcoins with promisses of better profit. Holders can't be tricked. Bear market bla bla bla. And in several years - boom 50K (at least)! Deja vu.

Good morning WO gang! The current price is 6960 and rising. Who sold at tonight's local bottom 6472? I followed the mini dump down to 6600 before I went to my hodl sleep. I just can't understand how one can be so stupid to sell at these ridiculous prices 26 days before the halving.  Even in my sleep I won't do it   And I am in the category of over investment and never taken profits. My main entry price is around 4400 since 2017, and I endured losing the profit for 3 time intervals so far. But I am trained by my previous mistakes and I will follow my selling plan no matter what. I just love to increase my stash over the years by investing my worthless fiat. It is because I know what will happen and I love to live with the hope for it. As it was said in Rogue One (the only good new Star Wars movie):

Sunday pumps are back! I'll take that as a BD present! It is better than the last year's 5K  

Ok, this makes no sense to me. Typically there is a 50/50 chance of a right guess. It is like a roulette. There is absolutely no indication which way it will go. How can you say that you make a profit if you have bought USD and it goes down? Btw, the biggest daily swing I see is 0.5%, which will be annihilated by the difference of buying/selling rates of the banks. If you are talking about the monthly swings, there are indeed two in the last year, but this was unusual. The rest 5-6 swings are under 2%. So you are counting on that these 4% swings will continue? On what grounds? And even if you have a couple more in one year, you will have like 2K-3K profit, if you are extremely lucky.  

And then what's the use of getting more USD if it crashes like in 2009 agains the euro? And what's the use of the profit in terms of euro if it crashes against the USD? I don't know, man, it just seems not well thought. You said that you started DCA-ing again and quit TA. I've sent you a merit for that decision. Now you start gambling again with fiat shitcoins which will continue to lose buying strenght because of... wait, what's that noise... brrrrrr. We know why we chose Bitcoin - it is decentralized, a real store of value which will continue to increase because of the limited supply halved in each 4 years, because of the mass adoption, etc. The bigger short-term volatility always turns to huge profits in long-term. But these are the basics which we all should know, right?

Damn, so close! 

Because he doesn't have these bitcoins. He is just another scammer, trying to trick some n00bs.

Yeah, me too! The problem is that only few manage to achieve this! Even if you think you have a strategy, this is not enough for successful regular trading. Generally, you have to read a lot, watch the market statistics closely for several years without trading in order to be able to predict with > 50% success. And even then you need one more thing - to master your emotions. If you are an emotional trader you will make many bad decisions, despite your ability to predict the market when you were not in.

P.S.  A warning in general, not personally to aesma. It seems to me that many n00b traders entered some of the main exchanges lately. They hit the sell button at a price they have some profit, say 1%, instead of just placing their bids in the order book. I watch Coinbase and Bitstamp closely and see quite often that at some point many simultaneous sells block the exchange for 4-5 seconds. After the block dissapears, the price is like 5-10% lower. And the poor guys see with a frustration that they've market sold lower than they bought. There is a limit sell button also, people! When these n00bs gonna learn to use it?

I prefer the variation "fortune favours the prepared mind". Louis Pasteur made this remark: "Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés", meaning "In the fields of observation, chance only favours the prepared mind."
I am not inclined to believe that cerain price will be reached in the next 2-3 years, but the reduced supply will make the difference sooner or later. So it is not only about bravery but knowledge as well.

I know what mindrust was feeling and don't blame him for that. I went through the same emotions myself in 2017. Luckily the bad decisions were compensated by the right choices I made. I shared them several times but mindrust did't see the solution to his problems. Ok, let me try for one last time.

1. The fear of the Tether: What can happen if Tether explodes? The worst thing is BFX to be closed. This exchange has become a cancer for Bitcoin in the last 2 years, so its closure would be for the better. Will there be some drop of the price - may be just for a small period of time. Back in 2017 I was surprised that the bank problems with Thether didn't influence badly the price. On the contrary, the price went from 1000 to 3000.

2. Is it possible for the price to go to 0? No, mathematically speaking this can't happen. Look at the orders of Coinbase - under $500 there are 3-4 mil bitcoins on the bid side. If you follow the sites with Bitcoin inflows charts to exchanges, you will see that each day between 10K and 50K normally are deposited into exchange wallets. During crashes like in Dec 2018 and 13 March 2020 there were peaks of 444K and 220K daily inflows, respectively. How on Earth this will fill the bids for 3-4 mil BTC?

3. What if it goes significantly below your main entry price? You have to keep some good reserve and have a plan for that. If your entry was $4K and the price goes lower, just wait up to 3 months. If the price doesn't return to your level, and you want to be cautious, wait for it to find the bottom. If for example BTC stays at $2K, buy at this point, so when the price returns to $4K, you will have some profit. If the price is lower than $1K, hey - this is every late investor dream - to buy at 3 digits! You may have over 50BTC with your reserve!

4. It is better to accept the loss of bitcoins and rebuy at 10-100% higher level than to be sorry one day. I rebought at 70% loss after my stupid sell at $2750. I didn't have a clue that the price will return twice to $3K in Sept 2017 and Dec 2018. But now I think this price range is very unlikely to be reached again, so it is not advisable to wait for such black swan events.

With these fears taking care of, you will feel happy whatever move Bitcoin makes. If it goes higher you will be happy your networth increases in terms of fiat. If it is getting low, you know a way out not by selling but by investing more. For this you need only to believe that Bitcoin will recover sooner or later.

Regarding the selling, this is a whole new topic. For starters, you may just make a plan like JJG suggested some time ago. It can also invole some buying back in case the price falls. I personally prefer to sell at my selling point the planned amount, and if the price falls to buy back my coins and withdraw the fiat profit in my bank. This is in case I don't need the bigger amount for some purchase. Anyway, feel free to explore further this plan.

I like this game! Under normal circumstances I would never give such lows as having >1% chance. But we live in a biological world war and the panic has just began. If the crisis resolves soon, we may have a violent upward movement leading closely to the previous ATH. So we have to consider not only the specifics to the Bitcoin market but also the crisis development.


In 1 week (3/23): $3,000 - $7,500
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $10,500
In 3 months (6/16): $750 - $20,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $5,000 - $40,000

P.S. $4500. There is the chance mindrust was waiting for.  

Last week Bitcoin surprised us in a bad way. Next week for a change I hope the surprise will be good for the hodlers. What I see now is that the support down to $3000 in the shitty Coinbase has increased to over 12 000BTC.  Of course, the main threat remains that people may continue to cash out next weeks especially if they are on unpaid leave. But, there is a very good news regarding that: in EU a sum of 37 bil euro will be distributed to the member countries (sorry UK ) to pay compensations  equal to 70% of the salary of each worker, who works for a private company that can't afford to pay the full salary during the lockdown. The news is from the last hours, and my country for example will receive 1.3 bil euro for that purpose. So I hope the panic will fade away and people will take advantage of this really low price now.

Edit. As I am writing a lil pump is underway. The pump started from $5170 and now we are at $56405800. Jeez, who would have thought in June 2019, when we reached 13 800 that only 2 months before the halving the price will be this and we will be happy about it... Phew, unbelievable!  

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.

From $3850 to $6000 is 55% increase for several hours. This also is histroric!