The problem in not the 100x itself but rather the opportunity which it creates with a practically anonymous account. I say 'practically' because even if someone is giving his name, his actions are not monitored like on regulated US exchanges. Take the numerous cases in which CFTC discovered derivate manipulations. What does this mean? Simply speaking this means that one person (or family, or a circle of friends) trades simultaneously on spot market and derivate market taking advantage of its own action. With regulated exchanges it is easier to find these people and to sue them for their illegal actions. Many of us were suspicious about the CME gaps for example, expecting a dump to fill those gaps at $9600. Well, it happened several times before but not this time, which shows that CFTC is working well with CME. On the other hand, it is much easier with a 100x margin to manipulate the marked by selling both on mex and some less liquid spot exchange. There is a risk of a price swing of course, but theoretically such practically anonymous persons or entities could do this endlessly. If there is no monitoring on behalf of mex staff, then everything is allowed. And this is by no means good for the natural growth of Bitcoin. Not to mention that there are numerous suspicions that mex owners are playing against their clients. Of course, they know all their positions and can squeeze them anytime. I can recall for at least 2 articles in coindesk and cointelegraph about it. They also can turn off the server in case something goes wrong like 12 March crash. And finally, I really don't believe that the owners are innocent and not cooperating with money launderers. So, the hodlers should have no tears or remorse for mex.   |
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On the Bitmex drama, my thoughts. Some bitcoin companies are like lab rats: they have been left alone to experiment things that one day will become part of the new FINancialTECHnology world. Take Bitmex: bringing futures to the next level right? or finex or any other. Then they come and tell you, hey boy, this is our territory, how do you dare? And then they publicly admit that "Digital assets hold great promise for our derivatives market and for our economy". Yeah, right? Thumbs up to 600watt, somac. for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55302340#msg55302340With CME, Bakkt and Grayscale, the US derivate market is becoming of "significant size", which was one of the main concerns of SEC. The other - manipulations of almost anonymous high leverage traders operating on Mex is now in the process of solving. This is not only CFTC and SEC concern but possibly the main "bart generator" for the last 2 years. So in any possible way, Mex news is good for Bitcoin. The 3% drop in the price is by no means to be compared with the benefits of manipulators being kicked out of the market. It is quite possible that the CFTC statement "Digital assets hold great promise for our derivatives market and for our economy" is related to a possible ETF approval, as also suggested in this article: https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/a-big-positive-step-towards-the-bitcoin-etf-approval/Although, IMO, institutions will find a way to get into Bitcoin without an ETF. We've seen however, that in the last months despite the huge purchases, the price didn't move as much as it should. The only logical explanation is of course the fraudulent shorting using Mex and other not well regulated exchanges. There is also a non logical explanation. As we are normal people here, carefuly thinking about every detail, we tend to forget that there are people who are not like us. Take for example Las Vegas - how many addicted people are in the casinos losing all the cash they bring in their pockets! The same is with the addicted daily traders, who can't be called manipulators, but like vicious brainless piranhas eat the price down until their stash is gone in an endless stop loss chase. The removal of Mex shorters will tip the balance against the piranhas and in favour of the natural growth. So I applaud the CFTC action and hopefully it will shut down Mex and put their owners and other money launderers in jail, where they belong! |
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The problem with the security of ETH 2.0 is very serious and it seems nobody from the devs team can really predict all vectors of hacker attacks. As some noted in a twitter post (currently not available) mentioned above in this thread, ETH 2.0 looks like DAO 2.0. Smart contracts on a new chain with only several thousand nodes, really? What about 51% attacks or even DDOS attacks? Back in 2016 the DAO attack was followed by massive DDOS attacks bringing the price down to $6. Currently eth security is given by 250 Th/s, which is equivalent to more than 8 mil gpus with average hashrate 30 Mh/s. It is practically impossible to make a 51% attack. On the other hand, the 3-5 Th/s of ETC blockchain are not enough and there have been multiple 51% attacks recently.
So there is absolutely no advantage in the transition from POW to POS from security point of view. Scalability and fees - yes, but at what price? If there is even one failure of the ETH 2.0 blockchain, the market will react and become bearish. Then who would like to lock 32 eth for 2-4% profit in terms of eth, when the price loss in BTC and $ would be much bigger? This is what happened to every other coin and why the devs think they will change that to be the first successful POS coin? And all that with a rush to keep some deadlines without thinking of all possible vectors of attack? I don't get it.
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I'm testing the new cryptowatch desktop app and I'm pretty impressed. It's available for Windows, OS X and Linux : https://cryptowat.ch/apps/desktopI have an early access invite code to give away. Just reply to this message and I will send the code to the first person who is interested. I use CW a lot, so I would be happy to get one. |
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The Autumns of 2018 and 2019 were bearish. The Autumns of 2016 (2x) and 2017 (6x) were bullish. I am curious what the Autumn of 2020 will be. I don't know, but may be a new poll will show the sentiments. Something like "What will be the peak price range until 22 Dec 2020: 10K-12K, 12K-15K, 15K-18K, 18K-20K, 20K-25K, 25K-30K, 30K-40K, >40K?" I am moderately bullish, so my answer would be 15K-18K. Of course, I don't mind >40K at all. |
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It's time for the shorts to get rekkt |
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Maybe it's not as bad as it looks?
Is there enough liquidity on these exchanges to soak up relatively medium sized dumps?
(I probably don't know what I am talking about here so please let me know if I am screwing up, just thinking out loud really).
So the question is even though there may be demand how many bitcoins need to be dumped to move the market by $500 or so?
Maybe now with the value of Bitcoin being what it is, we don't need too many dumped before we feel an impact?
So even a small to medium dump will result in quite a significant fall in price?
This leads to the next question.
Will there ever come a point that dumping 1000 BTC onto the open market doesn't have a significant impact on,price?
It depends how and where the dump takes place. If we are talking about OTC dump, this sum won't affect the price. OTC desks sell regularly small amounts and not below the negotiated price. I doubt even 10K-50K BTC would affect the price with such selling. If we are talking about a whale-manipulator, then we should check the Bitstamp order book. This exchange is the least liquid, so if there are any manipulations, we should expect them there. Currently 747 BTC have to be sold to lower the price to 10290. How this will work out for a whale is another question. Playing with Bitmex or any other futures exchange is a bit tricky and there is a big chance of something to go wrong. If for example he opens a big leverage short position but the exchange is down or some other whale buys and recovers the price, then the loss will be tremendous. So I personally don't believe there are any such manipulations recently. But we have another problem, which is the main cause of these recent drops. The problem is called Binance and its high frequency trading. The volume of this exchange is 5 times bigger than the next exchange Coinbase. There are too many weak hands there - addicted losers, who easily register losses until there is nothing left to lose. We make fun of those n00bs who buy high and sell low, but there are a lot of them, like the casinos full of lost souls. During the long 9K sideways, we can sum up the total percentage of price drops. It is quite close to 100% (not to mention the high leverage longs liquidated much earlier). Hence, we can easily deduct that these extremely weak hands lost their capital and when the real pump started, they were nowhere around to stop it. Remember, these guys are addicted, so they invested new fiat between 11K and 12K, and now we are counting their totall losses again. It is getting near to 100% again, so we can expect a new big pump in the coming weeks. |
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what were and what are the main counter arguments vs bitcoin? when it was new, everyone thought it was a stupid idea. it was said that bitcoin
[edited out]
fast forward to present: what are the current arguments of bitcoin critics:
-is used by criminals and therefore
(please add to the list the arguments missing here)
what is surprising is that all counter arguments are from years ago. bitcoin is running for a decade now. the critics had enough time to dig all through it and come up with really well thought arguments. but they didn't. all those smart economists, all the gifted shitcoin proponents, all the scared bankers - all they do is echoing the same old arguments from years before.
endeavors of this magnitude, with millions of people deploying billions of dollars into the project usually come with a shitload of trade-offs and compromises and mis-allocation of capital. with bitcoin even the hardest critics can't come up with new arguments.
this is a bullish sign.
few understand this.
My favourite is: the price is manipulated. As if the stocks aren't. lol Regarding criminals: Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073The whole fiat system is one big ponzi. Madoff ponzi is one of the brightest examples how helpless are SEC and CFTC. Merging banks and printing money can delay the collapse of the world economy, but for how long and at what price? We know what happened with the purchase power of the dollar in the last century. Let's see what it will be say in 20 years: 25% is too optimistic IMO. Satoshi knew this and created a decentralized internet money with a fixed supply, which halves each 4 years. Banks and governments are scared and they try both to manipulate the price downwards and to make obstacles for the people to get into. For example, since the 2017 bull run, the banks in EU were so scared, that many of them banned transactions to and from Bitcoin exchanges. However, in most countries there are still enough banks that don't do that. On the contrary, some of them even offer their clients easy trading and holding, like Bitwala. Regarding governments, only the most stupid communits rulers think they can ban Bitcoin. It is like banning Internet. Only North Korea can do that. But I think we are living in different times, when more and more institutions and closed markets are involved into bitcoin - futures, hedge companies, etc., the list is endless. A ban on Bitcoin for USA would mean collapse of those companies which are listed on Wall Street, hence causing a major financial crisis. Even imbeciles like Trump and Mnuchin won't do it of course. Bitcoin will always find ways around the obstacles, like Chinas pathetic bans. So nowadays, the hodlers have nothing to worry about. The basics are solid and the future is bright. Everything else is just FUD. |
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New Legendary Hat in WO, in a few minutes, AlcoHoDL +1sM Congrats!!! edit:  Done Congrats AlcoHoDL!!! Well deserved!!! |
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Nvidia has just released new 50% more effective video cards series 3000. Amd is expected to answer with cheaper cards at the end of October. Both companies are very interested in Ethereum mining profits, so may be a big pump is coming in the next months? POS is not needed now - Defi is working well and there are too many problems to be solved before the transition to full POS is done. It is at least 1.5 year away, if everything is going well and phase 0 (which is a hybrid POS and POW) starts in 2021. This is not highly probable, so we may expect more delays - 2-3 years may be.
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Average gas price 700, 800 gwei!  |
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Bakkt Tuesday's numbers: Volume: 17 745 BTC ($192.84 million, +61%) (New ATH) https://twitter.com/BakktBot/status/1306115788995260424Remember the dissapointment of the first day with volume of several bitcoins? Well, this escalated quite fast to the levels of the biggest exchanges! And this is still unnoticed among the other 'hot' news about defi and microshares. Defi is having currently around 100 000 BTC locked into smart contracts and rising of course. More and more serious investors and companies are accumulating bitcoins causing a shortage on the spot exchanges. Good times are coming and the bears know it! Of course they will fight desperately between 10K and 20K to be able to buy cheap coins as long as possible. But when the ATH is breached, the real FOMO will start. Then the SEC morons like Jay Clayton will realise that invetstors do not need their approval to invest in Bitcoin. The obstacles they've built are not applied for Bitcoin. Peeps like Clayton and Mnuchin are bastards of the fiat adultery, while we are the true heirs of the only asset that will survive and get stronger with time. So, are there any knife catchers left trying to gain from 5 min 1-2% drops? They must be completely blinded and not being able to see the big picture. It is funny how such plankton is coming here to boast with a leverage short profit. It is like a child boasting with his 2+2=4 calculation to a professor who invented a new branch in math. I don't know to laugh or to pity such n00bs. Especially, considering that 90% of the Binance trades are of sums below 0.01 BTC. And even if they make a profit on the first trade, the second will be a loss to devour both their profit and their investment. Patetik and Haaalerius! |
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Shorts carnage from yesterday's $10200 bear trap continued today. Observing $10900 with a strong buying support which means more troubles for the shorters. Science and maths confirmed!
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Shorters are soooo rekkt |
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Re discussions of selling, then "enjoying new lifestyle".
Everybody's situation is different.
I am in a urban environment with huge RE taxes.
I can survive on, say, 70K a year, but anything less than 100K a year would be a strain, really, with 150K being OK to good (with a couple vacations/year), anything more than that could be used for whatever (investments, etc).
Based on this, $1mil is not really a change in style as you don't really want it to be gone in 7 years, right?
People keep talking about passive income. I have no idea what it means as with current bond yields passive income is something approaching zero.
If you are talking about stock appreciation OR sale of your assets, than it is not a passive income.
I would imagine that in SanFran or NY anything less than 200-250K/year in income is a strain.
Conclusion: I cannot really count on btc being my only money supply until it reaches much, much higher levels, which probably means that I have to work...and work.
P.S. and OT: Dan Morehead (whom I respect as btc investment visionary) thinks that defi will do 100X before btc will do 100X. I have to idea how he came up with this (maybe simply going from lower base).
Unfortunately, it is completely unclear who the main player(s) would be and/or how many (or if it would even work). I took a look and some of those tokens are up 30-100X in the last 6-9 mo.
Entering now without a clue of how it shakes out is kind of idiotic, so a pass for me. Should have thrown a thou on some a few mo ago...oh, well.
Hahaha, we are living on different planets. My yearly expenses are like $7k-8k. If I move to the most expensive sea resort and each evening we are eating at restaurants, visiting events, etc. the expenses would be $12K-15K. That is the change I want for starters. And $1 mil will be enough (if I don't buy expensive house, lambo or yacht) for ... 66 years lol |
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Good morning Bitcoinland. No real change... still sideways... currently $10380USD/$13679CAD (Bitcoinaverage). C'mon Bitcoin, rise and shine. Go Bitcoin go. I sell 1 bitcoin for price 50K while I really need only 25K. Wait until price falls to 25K, buy back the 1 bitcoin and keep the rest 25K in the bank forever. If the price doesn't fall that much, well this is a calculated risk. In my case this means 1 mil total profit in the bank. Not exactly fuck you status, but still enough to change my lifestyle.
This is the main idea, but with the calculator I can set precise sells at each percentage, so that I cover events like 45K down to 22K, etc. Only when I have a new lifestyle, I will sell almost everything for 6 mil. Are you saying you'd risk your money by keeping it in fiat in some bank? The term "money in the bank" is misleading unless the "bank" is your own i.e. Bitcoin. I also question your hoping for the price of Bitcoin to drop anywhere near as low as $25k. That's barely higher than the current ATH. It's more likely for the price to continue well into 6 digits and then perhaps fall down as low as $50k-$60k in the nadir of the next Bitcoin winter. Just MHO of course. I gave those numbers as an example to clarify my calculator. I won't sell at 50K and rebuy at 25K, of course. But If I am satisfied with a certain price, say hypothetically 100K, I sell something and after that a bigger dip comes, say 70-80K (20-30% drop as programmed in the expample), I can decide to keep the profit into the bank or buy estate, and after that to rebuy the same amount of bitcoins that were spent. My idea is to sell bitcoins only for a purchase (with the profit, while the remaining fiat is waiting in the bank - more secure than on exchange), so that I will be able to rebuy them back. If this fails, so be it, I will achieve my main goal. I would prefer to keep all my stash until I retire, but if all of my rebuy plans fail, then I will have to reconcile with the eventual loss and live with my fiat disributed (hypothetically) into 100K deposits euro guaranteed by the EU, half of which in euro, and the other half in USD (or CHF, whatever fiat is still alive then). There are two things that I want to avoid - waiting until I retire to start travelling and living a better life, and the second is rebuying higher with a loss, like I did 3 times in 2017. I did these mistakes, because I was new and I didn't have an idea what I really want. I gradually realized that $1-2K profit is not so big and if I learn to hodl I will get much more, so I corrected mindrust kind of mistakes by rebuying higher. I hope you understand better my point of view now. The truth is that my stash is too small and I have to wait for a really high price in the next 5-6 years. And having a solid plan that won't change under emotional decisions  |
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[edited out]
Well, I actually made my own calculator based on https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy (I mean I set the tag for 30% drop, but I would really like to get to 50%, which is pure greed and I can't be sure I will control this urge  ). I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment. Edit. To minimize the effect of the greed while rebuying, I set in the calculator automated price drops 30-50% with the same increasing percetage (like the mentioned above 8%) for the rebuying sums. I have a desparate need for 200K-500K villa with a pool at the sea beach The remaining money I don't mind keeping in bitcoins, hopefully near the same amount as of now if the rebuy things goes well. The next eventual sells/rebuys will be used for setting a new lifestyle so that I can trust myself more and then leave my job without the fear of losing all on failing bussiness, whores, whatever. Yes, if you customized your own version of such system (chart to figure out price points), then you can attempt to account for potential rebuy points, too, and surely I have been using some system very similar to that for several years. You can see that the linked chart was "Inspired by rpietila's (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan on BitcoinTalk." Rpietila did not advocate rebuying, but I talked about rebuying in that thread, and so of course, each of us will need to consider what we believe to be appropriate trigger points for rebuying or our willingness to just leave the sales off of the table in the event that the rebuying trigger points are not reached... So, in that sense, I had agreed with Rpietila in regards that the emphasis should be on taking profits along the way rather than rebuying - even though some rebuying might end up happening along the way, as you seem to be setting up something to plan for that. One of the problems, of course, with rebuying is that if BTC were to end up going to zero, then your whole systems of raking or taking profits along the way has no longer materialized because you have failed and refused to actually take profits. That would be a potential downside in carrying out such a system that includes rebuying at various points along the way. My principle for the rebuying is this: I sell 1 bitcoin for price 50K while I really need only 25K. Wait until price falls to 25K, buy back the 1 bitcoin and keep the rest 25K in the bank forever. If the price doesn't fall that much, well this is a calculated risk. In my case this means 1 mil total profit in the bank. Not exactly fuck you status, but still enough to change my lifestyle. This is the main idea, but with the calculator I can set precise sells at each percentage, so that I cover events like 45K down to 22K, etc. Only when I have a new lifestyle, I will sell almost everything for 6 mil. This is my target in the ideal case for the next 20 years. Let's be alive and well of course Here is a pic of my calculator (the rows between 1 and 2 sell are the rebuy points around 30% drop of the top, the lowest row shows the profit in $ compared with the total spent amount 494-346=148$):  |
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tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it?
Of course, if you hold onto all of your BTC or you shave off a bit of your stash along the way UP, - either way could work out. Let's say that you had a system that you were planning to sell 5% or 10% of your stash every time the BTC price doubled, once the BTC price got above a certain price point - so in terms of establishing that price point to start your selling (or shaving off), you look at your own situation, but if you believe that there might certain BTC price areas that are quickly passed through, then maybe be you would sell less in those areas (but still sell a small amount, just in case), and if you believe that there might be price areas that could be a bit of a blow off top, you might sell a bit more in those perceived blow off top areas, but again maybe not selling everything - because your time horizon is longer and you are expecting to go through another BTC cycle anyhow. Either way, maybe you are not selling a lot of your BTC at any point, but instead you continue to sell a bit of your BTC stash at various price points along the way (whether those are 25% price appreciation points, 50% or 100% or some other needed price appreciation that causes you to shave a bit off of your stash) in order that you will not feel bad if the BTC price were to end up reversing in its direction before it reaches your upper selling price target - whether that is $47k, or $93k $242k or whatever the BTC target that you might have to make a bit of a BIGGER sell off (if that were to happen to be your goal). Sure, we have discussed previously, that you might have goals to sell higher amounts such as 20% or 40% of your stash at various price points, but you still might not be planning on selling all of it at any one point, even if you might be planning to take off BIGGER amounts at various price points. You still could arrange such BTC selling that you have a lot of BTC in any event because you would not be selling large portions of your BTC stash along the way but merely selling some of your BTC stash for a kind of insurance purposes.. So, if you have a time target to keep accumulating BTC through 2030 or some further off date like that, you might NOT be incentivized to sell large portions of your BTC stash, even if you have already been into BTC for a decent amount of time because you feel that you have not really acquired enough.. but that disincentive to sell everything still might not justify HODLING onto everything and NOT selling any BTC - which surely has worked for some people just to HODL through the volatile periods because there HODL period is at least 4 more years into the future.. and of course, the longer the timeline the more justification for just HODLing through it all (and skipping any shaving off, however tempting that might be). Well, I actually made my own calculator based on https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy (I mean I set the tag for 30% drop, but I would really like to get to 50%, which is pure greed and I can't be sure I will control this urge ). I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment. Edit. To minimize the effect of the greed while rebuying, I set in the calculator automated price drops 30-50% with the same increasing percetage (like the mentioned above 8%) for the rebuying sums. I have a desparate need for 200K-500K villa with a pool at the sea beach The remaining money I don't mind keeping in bitcoins, hopefully near the same amount as of now if the rebuy thing goes well. The next eventual sells/rebuys will be used for setting a new lifestyle so that I can trust myself more and then leave my job without the fear of losing all on failing bussiness, whores, whatever. |
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Good morning WO gang! I see that we continue to build up support above $10K. For the last 48 hours 3000 BTC were added to Coinbase bid book and more than 500 BTC to Bitstamp's. Meanwhile the sharp decrease of BTC's held on exchanges continues (over 15% in the last 6 months):  My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.
During a bull run nobody can predict what will be the top before the next pull back. In the Spring of 2017 we had 3x increase and in the Autumn of 2017 - 6x. Both periods were full of 'bad' news: PBOC FUD which casued several 40% crashes and moreover restructuring of the market, which was 95% in China's exchanges; Ver's BU fork attempt, bcash fork, nov. cancelled fork, various shitcoins pumping to the roof, etc. And all of that could not stop the bull run. I am even thinking that the bad news were actually a catalyst for this incredible bull run. More crashes, less weak hands holding the price down. And at the same time BTC's held on exchanges increased 2.5x. tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it? |
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