Goldman Sachs Leading Investor Group to Buy Celsius Assets: Sources
The Wall Street firm is seeking $2 billion in commitments from investors to buy distressed assets at steep discounts if the crypto lender goes bankrupt.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/24/goldman-sachs-raising-funds-to-buy-celsius-assets-sources/

Let's be fair to mindrust though. He sold in panic and disappointment at the price he had bought. Although he was not overexposed as he claimed - 2 to 1 in favor of fiat is anything but overexposed. Many of us are 100% in favor of bitcoin in terms of savings. I personally had exhausted the credit card limits and had taken a loan from the bank with which I had bought the day before at 7K. If I wasn't afraid of covid, I swear, I would go the next day and take out a 5x bigger loan and buy bitcoins for 4K. Whatever.

But in the last year we have seen something even more unfortunate, not to say ridiculous. We see an influx of institutions, thousands of them, who have invested in bitcoin and even more companies and retail behind them. However, over 90% of them have no knowledge, no beliefs, no intention to hold for at least 4 years. Some of them were quite influenced by the tweets of elon musk, which shows what their intellectual level was. That is why these crashes last year and this year turned out to be so big. All these companies and retail lost over 50% of their money. And this can be easily checked on the glassnode website. What I noticed, for example, I see today that many others have noticed on Twitter. From the Canadian purpose ETF were withdrawn 24K bitcoins at the end of Friday (50% of the bitcoins). It is almost certain that this is a company that has found a way to sell them on the exchange the next day. Something that caused the big crash.

So, several large companies have practically gone bankrupt, and others are moving in that direction. Probably over 90% of the companies. There, in addition to the fact that customers want an annual interest rate, contracts are often made, in case the price falls to a certain level, the asset to be sold immediately. This is de facto a long position with a margin call. Michael Sailor did something similar, but there the calculations are better and even at 3K he is not in danger of liquidation. Not to mention the companies that use bitcoins as collateral for their collapsed shitcoins.

What follows from now on? This process of exodus of the institutions and the weak hands will probably continue for another 2-3 years at least. But even afther that, we clearly cannot rely on them for sustainable price growth. In addition, until the very end of 2020, despite the withdrawal of 650K bitcoins from Greyscale from the market, the price could not pass 10K due to the ugly Bart manipulations on 20x+ derivatives exchanges such as Bitmex. The paypal sensation had to appear before the bull market could start. Assuming that the ETF will be given to Greyscale within 3 years, this means that these bitcoins will return to the exchanges. And if there is no sensational news like PayPal, there may not even be a significant bullish market despite the halving.

So, let's hope that the ETF will not be given and the institutions will not inflate the price and then bring it down. What is sure to happen is that the convinced hodlers will continue to increase their stash and will not sell on a loss.

Remember how during the spectacular bull run from 10K to 40K, with no correction, we all thought "This time it is different. Big institutions are buying and they will never sell on a loss, hence there will be no major correction." Hahaha, how delusional! Now, practically every hedge fund and company which uses loans with liquidation options are selling on a huge loss, as if we are having an asset which is dead and will never  recover. What about the famous ETFs? Purpose ETF for example is now having 618M in Bitcoins, 781M less than on 16.06 and 1.6B less that the peak.

I thought ETFs don't work during weekends, but from https://www.coinglass.com/etf it is evident that these bitcoins were withdrawn on 18.06. May be they participated in the historic crash below 20K. So, all these hopes for institutional adoption now appear to be false. The institutions are way more vulnerable to crashes than the veteran hodlers. So, we have to look upon them as extremely weak hands. Michael Saylor is right of course, but to think that these problems will be solved soon is pure hopium. Who will force Binance, Bitfinex or any other non US exchange to ban leverage 20x? And when the foolish people will stop giving their money to companies with big promises? I think the answer to all these questions is never!

So, if SEC gives approval for a spot ETF, this may lead to buy the rumor sell the news event. Soon after the ETF starts, more dumping will follow, especially if it is GBTC, where almost all coins were bought in the 10-20K range. I really hope that the situation for the next halving cycle be better, so we can reach and break 100K mark. But I don't expect the FOMO to last long enough to stay in the 100K-200K range. Of course, it is too early to tell, but I plan to sell something in that range, so in case of another 50%+ crash to buy back my coins and remain with half of the fiat profit. Hopefully, I will do better job this time. At least I bought back the coins that I spent with the intention to buy a house, which didn't happen. And I could sacrifice a little bit more of my retirement savings to buy back a few more coins if we drop below 17K.

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought.  Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come.

I've just bought 0.27BTC.  Thanks weak hands and thanks Revolut for working 24/7

Not a cat bounce? Not even a tiny V shape jump from the bottom? This is looking bad for the 20x longs. There are 3 options:

1. Going below 20K for a few hours, say to 18-19K, and then V shape recovery 20%+ and possibly a new short-term bull run to 40K.
2. Going below 20K for a longer period, say to 15K and then the V shape recovery 20%+ which starts a new short-term bull run to 30K.
3. Going steady up without a dip under 20K and longs realizing profit. Now, this is something I've never seen so far. May be there is a theoretical chance for that, but this would be new. Since someone said that in 2018 crash to 3100 there was no V-recovery, I beg to differ. I remember clearly that the price was falling to 3120 until it jumped and reached 4200 in a week, which is almost 40%. And 40% now will lead us to 28K, which I don't see happening. And earlier in 2018, when the price fell for the first time to 6K, which is 70% from the top, in 2 weeks it almost doubled to 11.5K.

Therefore, the probabilities I would give are:
1. 50%
2. 45%
3. 5%

Edit. Literally 1s after I postied this the price fell below 20K. Let's see how it develops from now.

How BTCitcoin price is looking now:

Bitwise - NO, GBTC - there is a 1% chance. The reasons GBTC has a chance are several - 1. They are practicaly operating as spot ETP already and have any needed documentation and requirements fulfilled. 2. There are over 10 000 comments on their proposal, which has never happened in the history of ETF, I think, 3. SEC allowed futures ETF on an article which is also for the spot ETF. This means that they have no excuse if they refuse on the grounds of manipulation. Greyscale hired some good lawyers and they will sue SEC if they don't get the approval. Gary Gensler is a bankers sock puppet of course, but facing a trial against him that could reveal he is corrupt and a hypocrite, can make him think twice before hitting the red button again.

There are some signs the bottom is 20K-ish. At least for now. Who knows what company will be liquidated next and crash the market. Although this is not directly related to BTCitcoin, the fact that any collapsing shitcoin can trigger such a crash is creating additional FUD than usual. It will take time for the people to forget about these events and restore their trust. But people have short memory. I guess after 3 years we will see the same story repeating: Because of the supply shock and mass adoption BTCitcoin will rise to new heights. Meanwhile the new defi, doge, nft, etc. will emerge attracting many n00bs who think getting rich is very easy and you don't need BTCitcoin for that. And then again the ponzis will blow up causing billions of losses, tears and tragedies. So, knowing this we should continue our silent accumulation of precious BTCitcoins. Now almost everyone may get a whole coin. This is not a chance to be missed. The whales and institutions won't miss it. So, if the price falls below 20K it will be for a very short period.

I've just bought 0.5BTC @ $20700. I'm ready to buy all the way down. Bring it on, bears! Next 1BTC buy is @18K.

My thoughts exactly! I've been thinking for the last several years what is in the mind of leverage/margin traders. We know that they can't win this game, but they don't. So probably they are quite nervous, easily irritated, harboring suicidal thoughts which exacerbate each bull run, seeing how much they would have got by just hodling instead of trading. And here it is - a perfect example for that. Even his nickname shows the devastating effect of the leverage trading on the human mind. So, let him rant and spam, this is a good lesson to the newbies.

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.

tl;dr. Celsius may have started as an arbitrage platform giving yield for those fools lending their BTC and shitcoins. But as the arbitrage dissapeared 6 months ago, they simply became a ponzi risking their client assets by making enourmous shorts. They had more than enough BTCitcoins to stop any increase in the price, liquidating practically 100% of the longs. But their problem is that what they do is perfectly visible by everyone. People started to realize slowly they've been scammed just like bitconnect.

 Now their margin call is at 16.8k (used to be 18.3K yesterday) as seen in https://oasis.app/25977#Overview. How much collateral BTC they will be able to add is unknown. Now we have a proof that all this downard pressure in the last 6 months was caused partially by this ponzi, who could give yields in BTC only if the price was falling. So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.

I did my purchases already on the way down to 25K. From now on I have 2 options. 1. I will continue DCA no matter the price. 2. I could use some of my retirement savings to buy more but for that the price should be lower than my average sell price. So far this is not the case, since I decided to sacrifice some fiat and buy higher than I sold. I can do this no more, however. My average sell price used to be 31K but last year I felt that it won't go lower, so I've bought back at 40K even at 50K some. As a result my average sell price fell to $21K. Since I sold in €, the € crash made the things even worse. If I calculate it now it is even lower $18.3K.  So, it is quite far from what we have now.

On the other hand, I have kept 66% of my stash and above 100K I can retire in some not so expensive location like Monaco of course, but still in a fairly good place. The reasons for the sell were to buy some real estate but I changed my mind and decided first to have some cash for travel and much later to settle somewhere. I'm still searching for such place, where I will have everything I need - food, medical care, infrastructure, etc. And this is by no means an easy task.

This price is still too high for me to buy  Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

Yes, definitely there are too many signs that the bear market is at its end. There are only some hypothetical 'ifs' that could lead to prices around or below 25K again. It is hard to define a bear 4 year cycle since the cycle 2012-2016. We had a 1 year bear market in 2018, followed by a 6 month bull market, which in turn was followed by a 6 month sideways market. And then the covid temporarily crash. But even in that period is evident that the average price moved from 6K to 10K reflecting the increased adoption mixed with heavy manipulation around 10K.

So, I expect something like this: 30K-40K-50K movement of the average price before the next exponential bull run that would lead us to 150K+ in 2025. The blow-off top depends on news like ETF spot approval, or even bigger news like legal tender in USA one day. In that sense, it is much better for the ETF spot approval to be timed with the normal top of the cycle 200K. Then we will have a blow-off top to 400K+ in 2025. Just like we had it in 2017 with the news of CME and CBOE futures, which was a big news for the mass adoption of BTCitcoin. Without it, we would have a more normal top around 10K and the description of a bear cycle after that even more complicated.

I'm not surprised that the price is under 30K again. But I'm quite surprised it is nowhere near the last bottom 25K. Historically, almost every possible bottom of a big crash was being tested and retested in the following days and weeks. Even the two V-type crashes to 3.1K in 2018 and 3.8K in 2019 were followed by restests down to 10% from the bottom. So far we haven't seen a retest to 10% of the bottom, i.e. prices like 27.5K. This alone is a huge exception and it probably means that further lows won't happen in the next few months. But even if we see another retest of 25K, this will only confirm the bottom. May be another bottom around 20K will happen eventually at the end of the year, but not before the bulls are exhausted with some disbelief rally to 40K+.

Mine is Love when I met her first and Hate since I saw 31K - until now. Actually, the hate was getting stronger with each day. I think I now hate her infinitely. But if she proves to be faitful and stays here for several years, I'll begin to love it again, since by DCA-ing will increase significantly my stash. For now, she shows herself to be just another hooker around the corner.

https://cryptoslate.com/will-26b-staked-in-eth-2-0-be-unlocked-and-sold-after-the-merge/
Will $26B staked in ETH 2.0 be unlocked and sold after the merge?
Later this year 13 million ETH will be unlocked once Ethereum moves over to proof-of-stake leaving proof-of-work behind. Will this cause a sell the news event?
“there will be an exit queue which may take more than a year in the worst-case scenario or several months in a more realistic one. The release will be slow.”

---------

No matter how slow it is, $26B additional selling pressure is quite a lot IMO. Even now just 2 months before the alleged swtch to POS it is so big that eth/btc crashed 33% from the last top. This is especially discouraging for the miners who keep some stash with the hope that POS will bring more profits. I expect most of them to switch their rigs to ETC and, as in the first few years of ETH creation, to pump the price enough at some point to become profitable. 10x-50x increase (etc/BTC) is doable for ETC in the next 3 years, and it will surpass anything that ETH can achieve from now on. In the last bear cycle ETH touched 0.016BTC, now I can bet that it will fall at least to 0.03BTC. May be ETH will survive another crypto winter, may be not. Terra is a good lesson why people must not trust some shady individuals with their money. Except for mining and converting to BTC. That is how even the small home miners who started in 2016 with a single gaming gpu, are all millionaires now. So, overall, thank you Vitalik for this opportunity and farewell to your project!

Bart (squeezed a bit) upside down so quickly? Thats' unusual. What's next? Another Bart?