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1001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 11:00:14 PM
I am so calm and confident about Bitcoin, yet I couldn't sleep and decided to take a peek at the price - $7290! And earlier today we were free falling to $6400. This is very good bullish sign! And bakkt hit record highs again - over 6200 bitcoins put into contracts today! I guess some of them were bought in the last 24 hours, so bakkt has some impact on the price after all!

Edit. The price shot up to 7440 while I was writing!
1002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2019, 11:23:50 PM
The current price is looking sooo tempting  Shocked Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? Huh This is the question! Huh

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!

It depends how big is the loan. I for example have 2 credit cards which are almost empty. I pay 100 euro each month with 4-5% interest . The sum I owe is around 6 months salary. I never had any worries even when we fell at 3K which is way below my investment point at $4800. On the contrary, I emptied the cards even more and I dind't think to fill them even above 12K. One of the reasons is that I am afraid someone can steal the sum while shopping (it happened through paypal once). Yesterday I ordered a rare medicine for my eye and I had to enter my credit card number in a not well known website. Luckily they took only the sum that was right and hopefully I will get that medicine. But my insurance is that my card is almost empty anyway. I guess I can live even with a double debt, if the monthly payment is low enough, for a long time. The most important thing is to learn to hodl no matter the circumstances. If you can't, a loan is a NO GO. If you can, then a reasonably small loan is not a bad idea in my opinion.
1003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2019, 10:41:01 AM
I just fired another $250. If it goes down I'll fire even more. If it goes to 3k I am going full berserk. Taking no prisoners. My ammunation is stronk.

What a beautiful morning, cheap coins feel good.


It is good that you continue to buy, I admire that. But the next part about 3K sounds to me like gembitz. He is notorious for his moronic "weeee" posts claiming that the price will fall 50% from the current point.
Yeah, I remember you said the same for getting to 8K, when we were nearly 14K, then 6K when we were at 11K, now 3K. If we get at 3K you will say the same for 1K. You had 4 months from Dec 2018 to April 2019 to buy at 3K and you didn't. And besides, one year ago the crash happened because there were no indications that the price will recover soon. I can't imagine how the weak hands that sold at 3K felt when the price hit 14K only 3 months later. I guess not good at all. Now the halving is only 5 months away. So to have expectations of reaching this low again is softly speaking unrealistic. I am just writing this so that you are not fooling yourself and one day to regret for underinvesting. The current price is beyond good for investing more. Surely, it may fall a bit more, but in the end will it make a difference, if you are a strong hand and hodl until 30-40-50-100K or whatever price target you choose? #stronghands
1004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2019, 08:31:15 AM


Who says men can't do 2 things at once. Wink
The chart's bottom looks sexy for placing a buy order.
1005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2019, 01:04:09 PM
If I have to summarize this year, I would say that once again  Bitcoin has proved to the world that the claim that the 2017 bubble had burst, was not true. Although in early 2019 the price hit $3,100, a gradual growth began. This growth naturally reached $14 000, i.e. 70% of previous ATH,  without the help of mass psychosis from an upcoming event. This proves that in 2017 Bitcoin experienced a natural cycle of growth, with a demand-supply ratio at the core rather than some global "tulip mania". The slow decline to $7 000 in 6 months after the AYH, compared to the many quick and steep crashes in 2017-2018  only confirms that the price is in the process of stabilization, before the next bull cycle begins/resumes.  
1006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2019, 06:34:51 PM
C'mon 1% daily piranha traders, you miss the huge pump from 7195 to 7210. Go, eat that profit immediately!

Edit. And 3 min later back to 7195. Nice job, guys, you got immensely rich!
1007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2019, 02:58:57 PM
I am just curious why every time we have some big or small increase, a dump follows below the starting point of the "pump"? Are these the 1%-daily-profit-seeking-traders, or the casual way the closing of short/long positions work? Or even worse, whale shorters, who defend their shorts by dumping on Bitstamp their prepared bitcoins for this purpose? Perhaps some experienced trader can share his thoughts? And in this regard, is the longs vs shorts ratio on Bitfinex (293 mln vs 45 mln) a threat for the price, i.e. a potential long squeeze? I've noticed that Bitfinex longs are more stable than on Bitmex. The volume is the same as it was when the price was above 10K. Better funded perhaps, so it is hard to get a long squeeze even from 10K down to 7K. On Bitmex there is parity (312 vs 330 mln).
1008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2019, 10:51:37 PM

...

4/8 Thus, the “addresses w/ any balance” metric may overcount the total number of individual bitcoin users because many addresses can be associated with one individual.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950880334635020?s=20

5/8 On the other hand, many users keep their coin w/ custodians and exchanges, which may use single omnibus addresses to hold customer funds. In these cases, one address may actually represent many users, causing this metric to possibly undercount the total # of bitcoin users.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950881588719618?s=20

6/8 These two factors play against each other, and it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine the extent to which they offset each other.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950882880606208?s=20


I think it is safe to say that BTC owner is someone who owns the keys. At the moment  such person deposits ALL his BTC's on an exchange, he delivers the possesion to the exchange. Whether he sells them immediately or waits for better price does not make him BTC owner anymore. And if someone buys BTC's but keeps them on an exchange he is also not an owner. These people are traders who don't care what they trade, only care for the profit. Therefore, the number of BTC owners (real investors) is less than 28 mil. Provided that almost everyone has at least 2 addresses (and some more than 10), the real number is much smaller, probably below 14 mil. Compared with the Earth population and the 3 mil BTC's left to be mined, it is clear that the mass adoption has only just begun.

You seem to have a perverted way of taking not your keys not your coins to an extreme, ivomm.

Of course, if custodians have bitcoin keys they can brute-forcedly fuck peeps out of their coins, whether by hook or by crook or by accident.  But having a claim to coins rather than holding actual coins does not mean that those people with claims to coins are not bitcoin holders, even though they personally are not holding the keys.

Get real.   Think about it.  Don't be giving any license to coin custodians to believe that they own the coins under their control, and custodians still have fiduciary obligations, even if they get a lot of leeway in their legal rights and even their historical corrupt practices and abuse in that direction.

If people had absolutely no faith in institutions custodying their value (whether bitcoin or otherwise), we would have a lot of fucked up situations and likely be in a kind of stone age that lacks in finances and money and inferior systems that involve trading cows and chickens, etc etc.

So, anyhow, there may be some bitcoin wallets that custody the bitcoins of thousands or even millions of users, and of course, most exchanges are going to engage in some dividing of the assets under management, so institutions might also have some addresses that hold a large number of bitcoins and other wallets with smaller amounts of bitcoins and in the end, there are real people and real institutions that have valid and legit claims to those coins under management..even if their claim has legally (and reality) inferior status than the coin of someone who is actually holding his/her/its own coins and private keys.

In general I like your thinking except in cases like this, where you either didn't read carefully or write without thinking. But I am in a good mood, so I will explain the obvious.
-If you sell your coins, you are not an owner anymore. You once were, but the statistics cover only the addresses with a positive balance NOW, amInotRite?
-If you transfer most of your coins to an exchange but keep at least some dust in one of your addresses, then you are technically still an owner.
-If you transfer ALL of your coins to a personal address which is given by an exchange, you are technically not an owner, because there is a chance that the exchange or a hacker can scam you and you won't be able to withdraw it back. You heard about "Not your keys, not your coins" (MtGox hinted).  BUT, I wasn't even talking about this case, because these addresses might be counted by this survey. I was referring to the last type:
-Finally, if you give ALL your coins to a friend, trust, OTC, whatever, and you don't have a personal address and ability to controll your bitcoins, then how the HELL you can claim you are an owner?!? You are a seller who is in process of selling, or shorting, or trading or whatever. The same applies for non physical futures trading. Why should we count those people as Bitcoin investors? They are like every other gambler who puts money on horses or whatever. No matter there might be millions of them. The point of this survey is to show the number of addresses hence people behind them (as an estimate), who are involved in real possesion of BTC at this particular moment. And this number is shockingly low <<28 mil, which is a very good bullish sign, so let's not spoil it with  nonsense verbiage anymore, mmmkey?
1009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2019, 05:27:40 PM

...

4/8 Thus, the “addresses w/ any balance” metric may overcount the total number of individual bitcoin users because many addresses can be associated with one individual.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950880334635020?s=20

5/8 On the other hand, many users keep their coin w/ custodians and exchanges, which may use single omnibus addresses to hold customer funds. In these cases, one address may actually represent many users, causing this metric to possibly undercount the total # of bitcoin users.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950881588719618?s=20

6/8 These two factors play against each other, and it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine the extent to which they offset each other.
https://twitter.com/intangiblecoins/status/1202950882880606208?s=20


I think it is safe to say that BTC owner is someone who owns the keys. At the moment  such person deposits ALL his BTC's on an exchange, he delivers the possesion to the exchange. Whether he sells them immediately or waits for better price does not make him BTC owner anymore. And if someone buys BTC's but keeps them on an exchange he is also not an owner. These people are traders who don't care what they trade, only care for the profit. Therefore, the number of BTC owners (real investors) is less than 28 mil. Provided that almost everyone has at least 2 addresses (and some more than 10), the real number is much smaller, probably below 14 mil. Compared with the Earth population and the 3 mil BTC's left to be mined, it is clear that the mass adoption has only just begun.
1010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2019, 09:51:48 AM


Who wants to join me & start a mining farm in Myanmar?

Wink
Trinidad and Tobago is better. Beach, palm trees, nice BTC profit+mining income=happiness!  Grin
1011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2019, 06:15:55 AM
^^
Every time they talk about these prices I get sick, it is torture, because no one told me about bitcoin at that time ... Cry

What's your bitcoin origin story? I cannot recall if you said.

You heard about bitcoin in mid 2017?  or earlier?

I never heard about Bitcoin before September 2017, this is when I bought, so Bitcoin was priced at +/- $ 3,600
When I arrived in Bitcointalk I already had my small portion of BTC, so I thought it was the right time to register in the forum, but I did not participate in the forum, I do not like the forums, there was no thread or section of my interest (stupid of my part).
During this time I used to catch the knife in the falls and it worked several times, until they caught me, the blow was strong, after this I became a 100/100 hodler, I have never sold a satoshi.
And one day (December 2018) by chance doing a Bitcoin search I found the Wall Observer thread and here I am since then.
Since 2008 I was quite involved in the purchase and sale of domains, it did not go wrong, but it would have been better if I had known this forum, things that happen in life.

This is a quick summary of my relationship with Bitcoin, for these reasons when I read conversations with prices of $ 600 my nervous system is disturbed and when I see that Bob sometimes talks about $ 2.50 / BTC, I have to go to the terrace to reassure my brain that is constantly coming back to 2008 mode Cheesy, It's too late for me, I can never have a decent amount of Bitcoin. Cry

I have a very similar exerience. I went full in at prices $4600-4800 in 2017. This happened after one awful trade in August, when I decided that the bull run is over and sold everything at $2700, one day before the first mega pump above $3K. It was very unfortunate since the price returned at 3K but only after I bought back what I had with double amount of fiat (i.e. all my savings). Not that I wanted to trade, but I was afraid of the coming fork, which threatened to destroy the price for a long time. After that, in November at the day of the fork, I sold half of my stash because of the dump I feared. Instead, the fork was cancelled, there was a bull run and I bought back at a higher price again. Unfortunately at this time kraken didn't fill the existing buying orders below my rebuying point and I lost something more because of it.

Finally, I sold half of my stash in December in the day I've read an article how manipulators will use futures to dump the price. It was clear to me that soon the futures will kill the bull run. The unfortunate thing is that I sold at 13K and few hours later the same day the price shot up to 17K. I was very frustrated and bought back at the first dip to 15K. This was my last sale. Needless to say I've become a hardcore hodler since then.

All this is very unfortunate, because I've missed so many trains. I've heard about Bitcoin in 2015 when the price was 300$. I didn't even know how the price was forming and thought at that time that the miners offer this price to the buyers (crazy, I know). At that time I decided to build  gpu rigs to mine Ethereum and invested 10K euro. Although I missed the Ethereum bull runs, I made some profit of 15K euro, which I constantly changed between USDT and Bitcoin because of the crashes in 2017. Because of these fails, I didn't sell even a satoshi at 20K or 14K this year, which turned against me again. This is in short my lamentable story. Very, very bad luck, like in my whole life. Some times I think because of me Bitcoin entered this bear market, as if someone above doesn't want me to be rich. My only weapon is the unique stubborness which helped my entire life to endure all bad things and have some professional success.
1012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2019, 09:43:35 PM
Just another day in Bitcoinland. Some bears got pissed by the pump from 7100 to 7800 and dumped back to 7100. Clearly, they want to make the impression of a long downtrend, and can't let bull signs to slip out. They have a new tactics. Instead of few big dumps, they just stop the big pumps which require less coins. Well played bears, well played! Hopefully, one day the knife you are catching will cut off your fingers!  Wink
1013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2019, 11:57:17 AM
I think most of these transfers are betweed addresses of the exchanges even if some are not known for sure. For example, what whale will buy at bittrex with so small volume compared to the other main exchanges? It will take weeks to accumulate on that exchange provided he is the only buyer. But of course, such "whale" activities are good for twitter FUD  Grin There are still many morons who sell at such "news".
1014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2019, 06:04:06 PM
I can’t tell you end of year.  My crystal ball stops at mid December.  And it says it’s going to be quite a bad time until then - low $6k / even high $5k possible.  After that it’s all grey mist.

I have turned on the fog lights and I find it hard to believe that we will see low levels by the end of the year.

Maybe if we all agree that Bitcoin could dump again and stop taking for granted that the halving will SURELY send BTC to new heights... then the chance for that happening would be higher. I remain scared by the amount of people expecting moon (ie: $50K-$100K) as an inevitable consequence to the halving. It could lead to a big dump even right after the halving if things don't go according to the "plan".

That being said. I will personally keep hodling. But I hate to see so much "optimism" in advance. It could end badly.

What we need is more fear... and maybe even another pre halving capitulation. Or maybe not. Who knows.

In Bitcoinland everything is possible. Even a halving dump. I think not even the hardcore bulls here think for granted that several days after the halving the price will shoot up to 100K. It is possible, but not 100% sure. Even more, a price above 10K is not guaranteed as well. The effect of the halving can be felt only when the weak hands are gone and the whales stop dumping. I mean, we can't compare 900 BTC less on the market for a day, if we had some ponzi or individual dumping 100K BTC in several days. I think some of the dumps, if not all, were caused by few individuals who got quickly rich in BTC and hurry to sell them even with a 50% loss. Nobody can prevent a price crash then. BUT, what the halving means is that under the normal trading, the balance is changed in favour of the demand. So, we can expect the actual effect no early than 1 year after the event (which may be earlier, or later - again nothing is certain). And the effect will require also either many buyers, or a few but very rich to pump the price. And when the price surpasses 10K, it should be able to hold and stay above that. We almost succeeded keeping that price this Summer, but bad actors (manipulator shorters if they still exist, big miners with newer asics, weak hands) dumped too many BTC to crash the price. Hopefully, after the halving all odds will be in our favour. But nothing is granted, of course.

I will continue to buy moar and HODL, no matter the dissapointments. I have my beliefs, but not like a "idée fixe". If it happens - fine! if not, well I probably will still have at least 2x profit. I can live even with the loss in terms of fiat, like earlier this year. But I think that the current price is too low both for the miners and for the hodlers, so we should be able to stay away from the 6K area. If we fall below that, I will throw every fiat possible to find, even the kitchen sink,  Grin and buy moar! #stronghands #HODL
1015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bakkt on: November 29, 2019, 09:03:57 AM
When bakkt started everyone was very dissapointed. With a volume of several bitcoins per day, it was not exactly the moon event. This resulted in massive sell off of the weak hands that hoped for quich money. But then slowly things began to change. With a record over 5K BTC per day and above 2K each day, it definitely is a game changer. Give it a year or two. Paired with the halving, this will have some serious impact on the price for sure.
1016  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Asshole Tannery on: November 27, 2019, 06:09:27 PM
bakkt 4000BTC+
1017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2019, 04:52:44 PM
The day started so bad, going down to 6 800. Now it ends up above 7 500$. And this is how the new bull journey begins! Who bought - bought!

Edit. I just saw that bakkt hit a new record again - above 3400 BTC until now. Well played bakkt boys, well played!
1018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2019, 10:18:36 AM
I'm sure Mic is joking...

But...

Always keep several copies of your recovery seed in paper (or other non-digital) form, and not all in one physical place (e.g., if you have two houses, keep copies in both). Also, use a passphrase in addition to the seed, and never write it down, for plausible deniability and also in cases where someone finds your seed and recognizes what it is.

Another thing I want to stress is that TREZOR, Ledger, and any other h/w wallet that uses standard BIP protocols (almost all of them do), are all interchangeable. This means that you only need the seed (+ the passphrase, if you use one). There is absolutely no difference if you use a TREZOR, Ledger, or even a s/w wallet like Mycelium. Your coins are not "stored" inside these devices. They exist in a universe-sized, multidimensional mathematical construct, and you only have a map to find them. The map is you seed (+ the passphrase, if you use one). That's all you'll ever need to access them.

So, don't worry if you ever lose your TREZOR or Ledger. They are just containers of something you (should) already have.
Mic said he lost his Ledger nano S. If he has written on paper his seed, nothing is lost, unless his PIN and password for Ledger live were stollen toghether with the device. Otherwise, mic has nothing to worry about. He may take control of his bitcoins either by software wallet (not reccomended) or by purchasing new device and entering the seed. I think the best way is to keep a note with the seed + pin on a very safe place in your house, where a burglar would never check. And to remember the seed. It takes some time, but it can be done. I really hope mic hodl stash is OK.
1019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2019, 01:28:58 PM
who let the bears out?
Camera recorded bear escape:
1020  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] TeamRedMiner 0.6.0 - Ethash/Cryptonight/Chukwa Thread on: November 24, 2019, 11:20:26 PM
Hi! Could you give me an example of tuning AMD 570 for Turtle coin? More specifically, which is the most power efficient core clock/voltage? I've read the documentation and it said for the core 1050 mhz, but how low can the voltage go - 800V or even less? Currently I am 1150/850 but the power consumption is 20% more than CN-r.
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