Yep, 10K touched on Bitstamp. Back to sleep now  |
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By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.
Agreed. 2019 was a doubling of fiat value; that's for sure. In another thread, I have already been criticized for somewhat selectively stating that point and also I had stated that so far this year, we are up more than 30% (well currently it is about 36%). So, yeah overall 2019 was a good performing year, but we also have to kind of put the matter in context of having had started very close to the bottom of the drowntrend that drug nearly to the end of 2018. I just don't think that we can expect some kind of gradual incline, and even if we look at 2019, it was quite the ride that got us through that whole process, and surely lucky to be up nearly 100% for the calendar year. Many of us anticipate that BTC is ramping up for an upburst, yet it is still uncertain whether we could expect 100% for 2020 and another 100% for 2021, but we also know that there are quite a few of us (and surely I am inclined in that direction too) who are kind of anticipating that 2020 and 2021 are going to at least average !00% for each of those two years by the time we get to the end of 2021.. which would be a mere $28,700 (/2 = $14,350 /2 = $7,175). So, yeah the next two years may well be decently performing years, but we have to prepare for extreme volatility - which seems quite likely too. I think that you, Biodom, anticipate such likely considerable volatility too - even though you might be just hoping for a more gradual wave sequence that is amongst the lesser likely scenarios. Surely, we are going to find out.. and surely the next couple of years seem to be quite critical tm in showing us how closely BTC price is likely to track the stock to flow and 4 year fractal model or if any kind of doubt starts to build regarding whether more appropriate models might apply. No way am I hostile to the theories that bitcoin's price swings might become less severe into the future with a growing market capitalization - but still we had a decent 78x in the 2015 to 2017 growth period, so even a 1/4 of that level of growth is going to put BTC into quite high territories, even if we were to use the current absolute bottom of $3,124 as our starting point - even though I believe that a $6k-ish bouncing off point would probably be more representative of BTC's bouncing off point.... but a 1/4 the volatility which is a 20x still puts BTC's high at anywhere between $65k and $120k.... and maybe you are wanting to go lower than 1/4 of the volatility.. which seems to erring on the side of almost fantasized conservatism in what are likely to be forces underlying BTC's upcoming price forces. So, yeah, it is possible that the upcoming bubble (if it happens) will be less than 1/4 the size of the 2015-2017 bubble, even though we really have not been witnessing evidence of such conservativism, and really we have likely been witnessing evidence that bitcoin is even more bullish and even more frontloaded in the ability to perform beyond such conservative constraints. I like to be conservative too, and not to count my eggs before they are hatched, but such conservativism, if it plays out, is likely going to justify tweaking our currently most historically conforming price prediction models a quite a bit towards the downside... so we will see, we will see. I am not going to deny that powerful forces are likely going to try to manipulate such BTC price prediction models down or to make us believe them to NOT be true, but I just have my doubts about if they can be successful, especially if we are looking at 2 years or more for the price movements to potentially play out.... they are going to likely try to manipulate down and overdo it, and what happens is exactly the opposite of what you want, which is an explosion to the upside that is NOT sustainable. Each scenario must be analyzed, including the most negative one. If we are talking about the top of the bull market in the next 4 years, we have to take into account all the factors that have influenced the price in the last 4 years. The question is which factors will be absent and would affect the peak reduction. The difference from $ 175 to $ 19666 is 112x. 1/4 reduction is 28x. One factor is the liquidity of the most bearish exchange, which participates in the price formation. The other factor is the FOMO mania caused by the media at the end of 2017. In my opinion, the FOMO effect at the end of 2017 did not increase the liquidity. On the contrary, people went to buy shitcoins and miners because they thought bitcoin was very expensive. So the jump to 20K was something that should have happened, even slightly delayed by the numerous bans in China. Concerning liquidity, there should be signs of a decrease, expressed in lower percentage peaks than in the previous period. So far, I see no objective factors for such a huge 1/4 drop. We even have a double ahead of growth - in July 2019 and the present. After the halving, if FUD is not successful, this overtaking can only increase. However, on the one hand, the price of 349K (112x) seems too high and comes close to the price of gold. On the other hand, the way the Bitcoin exchanges operate is very different from that of gold exchanges. In Bitcoin exchanges the volatility is very high for a number of reasons. Jumps of 20-40% in one day are normal, and they are determined by the avalanche elimination of short positions. So, even without a rise in liquidity, these things happen. Of course, this cannot go on forever. At some point, liquidity may start to stall. For example, at 1/10 reduction, we would have a peak of 35K (11x). To me, this is the absolute minimum, in the absence of extremely bad news/FUD that would permanently damage the market. With a 1/4 reduction we would have a peak of 87K (28x). Perhaps the most likely option is a 1/3-1/2 reduction with a peak between 120K and 180K. |
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With the new Coppa del Rey elimination regulation with just one game, it's normal for the home team to win against the favorites. Before the organizers were unhappy that there were no surprises, now they are probably scratching their heads at what kind of tournament happened without any of the class teams. The loss of Real and Barca comes at a time of preparation for decisive matches for the title. Real Madrid's match was a failure from the beginning, while Barca's loss was illogical and completely accidental. There is another problem there too - Messi is in conflict with management according to some publications. It certainly affects his mood of play as seen on the pitch.
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Wow, my rank has just upgraded - a new hero is born  Thanks mic for the last merits to 500th and for being a true inspiration to all of us! And thanks all WO brothers for the honor of sharing my sincere thoughts in my posts! #HODL #StrongHands  |
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It was so fast, I didn't see what happened with the 400 BTC walls at 9800 both in Bitstamp and CB? Were they eaten or removed?
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Observing 9700. (Where is Gembitz with his wet dreams of cheap coins? Timber! Weee! lol) This smells like 10K incoming!  |
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Sorry for the off topic in this Corona Virus Observer thread, but BTC is pumping above 9500$. Weee! Some 400 BTC wall remains at 9800 still. Popcorn time!
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This recovery to 9370-9400 is another indicator that the 2019 Spring bull run will repeat one way or another. The lack of a serious correction in the first half of 2020 is quite possible, considering that we are in the last stage of the pre-halving accumulation. I admit I have no idea what will be the halving local top (12K, 14K, 18K, new ATH ?!?) but if in the Summer of 2019 the price somehow managed to stay above 10K for a long time, I guess in the Summer of 2020 the price will stay more firmly above 12K.
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2017 “It will offer more opportunities for Chinese researchers, and our contribution on the BSL‑4-level pathogens will benefit the world,” says George Gao, director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology in Beijing. There are already two BSL-4 labs in Taiwan, but the National Bio-safety Laboratory, Wuhan, would be the first on the Chinese mainland. https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487NOOOOO!!!The National Biosafety Laboratory is one of the largest virus laboratories in the world. See the city where it is located: Wuhan Dammit> #motherfucker I didn't know anything about this lab, but the moment I heard the explanation about eating wild animals, I was 100% sure it is a lie and people in labs are to blame! And I know this because asians, especially in Vietnam during the war were eatich raw and wild animals, even worms, insects, etc. and nobody got this virus, until now! Communist dictatorships ALWAYS lie about the cause of such disasters! Chernobyl is exhibitt A! P.S. It is fun to watch that cat while listening to fast rock'n roll songs by guns'n roses |
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Good Saturday morning, WO gang! I just saw a cool video and made this gif. I am going to have some coffee with my friends now, and this is how I will feel peeking at the price   |
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-snip-
... I would rather just go up from here, but seems like there exists some short term down momentum... how low it will go remains another to be determined matter.
Why it would go up please? I don't understand... You sound a bit like a troll asking such a terse question, but for now, I will give you some benefit of the doubt, since I don't recognize your user name or having had posted in these here parts, previously. In the short-term, we cannot always determine exactly BTC's price direction, and there is a bit of an inclination that BTC's price continues to move in the direction of the momentum that it already has until it no longer does. Regarding BTC's medium to long term price, the pressure remains UP, and you can look at BTC price prediction models and information related to those price models which would include: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal, 3) metcalfe's law and networking effects pertaining to s-curve exponential adoption and 4) other similar models. If you do not understand the meaning of these models and you believe that they are purely theoretical, then likely you need to do more studying of bitcoin. Surely there is a decent amount of truth that past performance of any asset does not guarantee future performance, and none of the price prediction models that I listed really rely on BTC's past performance, but past performance remains helpful to them in analyzing the models and where we are at in terms of those various price prediction models (looking at either time or price). Do you have any other models or theories? Do you believe that BTC prices are going down or going to stay flat in the coming 1-3 years? How about 5 years? What do you expect? I am frequently asserting that nothing is guaranteed, including bitcoin, but even if the price direction of bitcoin is far from guaranteed, there remains a decent amount of strong evidence that any person that takes bitcoin seriously and puts a bit of their assets into bitcoin, such as 1-10% of their investible assets are likely in a good starting place, even though individuals are going to vary in terms of some of their financial abilities or even assets that they might have available and able to invest in bitcoin. In any event, bitcoin seems to be a very asymmetric bet, towards the upside... so good luck to anyone who has NOT yet come around to understanding the asymmetric bet concept... you (lacking in understanding peeps) are going to need it (meaning luck). Why it would go up please? I don't understand...
Cos it's BTC. (btw, JJG didn't say that) You seem to be suffering from the shitcoin syndrome. Wish you a quick recovery. True dat!!! martyMC seems to have been engaging in a bit of a twisting of words, and maybe I should have restrained my lil selfie from taking the bait... I see that with some of his continued stupid-ass posts on the topic that do not really seem to add any value, just ask dumbass questions as if we were in 2011 when hardly anyone understood bitcoin, at all. We are NO longer in those earlier days, so excuses for ignorance are NOT as acceptable... even though I do accept that there are genuinely a lot of people in the world who are quite susceptible to misinformation and disinformation regarding bitcoin because they do not know enough about the topic.  So you really think there is an unlimited free lunch for Bitcoin holders? Everyone buying and holding at any price will win free money... indefinitely... So even the dumbest guy in the world just need to buy bitcoin and sit down to earn money? He just need to wait to beat the market and steal money from professional traders? What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now? Basically, you are saying that if the price is temporatily falling, this is the end of the road. Any arguments about that? For example a comparison between the current market cap with other assets (like gold), or mass adoption progress (the number of addresses or people with positive balance), or the yearly inflation rate (related to the supply which is cut in half each four years)? If you can't prove that all these parameters are at the absolute maximum, these statement of yours are just a high school trash talk. Obviously, you are just one of the many narrow sighted n00bs who came here, proud of your one or two lucky trades. You remind me of one Ph.D. student who had a report at a conference proudly boasting in front of specialists with 30+ year experience in math and computer sciences, that he'd worked in this area for 2 weeks and already achieved something big. His report was so elementary that the audience exploded in laughter when he boasted like this. I am just saying that your few %'s gains are not to be compared with the profit of any well established holder here. Many of us started investing in single and double digits. I doubt you are able to calculate the profit in terms of %'s but give it a try. May be it will help you to compare it with your gains by trading. Most of us started in 3 digits, and fewer around 3-4K. We continued to buy even above 10K and there is nothing wrong with that. |
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Ouch! $106 mil Bitmex liquidations. That hurts! Why everytime I am in a bar with my friends the price drops by 5%? It is not pleasant to pay the bill for a drink, while my fiat fortune is less with thousands $'s. I know, f***k the fiat. 1BTC=1BTC.
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OK! After talking about this privately with a couple of high ranking WO’s we declare ivomm as the winner. Please PM me a bitcoin address. (I meant $9000 hence the Vegeta meme - sorry about the ‘over’ confusion/technicality) Edit - Just saw this Congratulations to the Vegeta meme winner!
Missed you both by a fucking second.
Now if we look closely, AlcoHoDL's Bitstamp screenshot is a few seconds earlier that ivomm's.
That's because ivomm edited the Vegeta post to add the Bitstamp screenshot after he posted the Vegeta.
I was thinking about that tbh. Whether I should do the same or not.
I'm not trying to say ivomm did something wrong, I'm just stating the facts, cos LFC asked for a clear picture.
For myself they are both winners.
AlcoHoDL - Also winner - Please PM with address. I can’t decide or split you! I received the bitcoins! Thank you very much! Cheers! |
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Do you guys observe anything else?
It is a very strange day outside of BTC (some alts are going positively crazy).
Anybody has a rationale?
Noticed Dash earlier on, but hey, look at that Shit Vision coin.  # Congrats to the lucky sellers of BSV at 0.24 BTC on BFX!
Wrong thread asshole. I don't know about you, but I am a proud Bitcoin hodler. Perhaps you are referring to yourself and your wankcoin? |
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Congrats to the lucky sellers of BSV at 0.24 BTC on BFX!  (That's kinda kills my joy of the 7% increase of BTC today.  ) But I don't really care for imposter/crooks and their shitcoins. Go BTC, go! |
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Good morning WO OG! It is nice to see the price staying around $8300. Before checking FB and twitter, let's see what we have here: - Fired missiles at US base in Iraq, only Iraqi casualties have been confirmed so far.
- Iran threatens to strike Haifa in Israel and Dubai in the UAE.
- Iran says it is conducting a second round of attacks on US base.
- Stampede kills 50 mourners during Qassem Soleimani funeral.
- Ukrainian Boeing 737 crashes near Tehran, no signs of any survivors, all 167 people have died. Aircraft was shot down ''accidentally'' by Iranian air defense systems.
- US bans all civilian flights over the Gulf region.
- Oil surges by over 4%.
( Don't forget this is also a war between Sunni's and Shiite's, they hate each other for centuries )
"Rockets hit airbase in Iraq"... Bitcoin pumping.
By following this thread we learn not only about the past, present and future prices of Bitcoin, but also all the world news faster than by following facebook, twitter, etc. The rockets news for example wasn't showing in my facebook/twitter feed when I read it here. Jeez, let's hope this is not a start of a massive war. What I said ^ |
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I am prepared to cautiously state that this does not look like rejection however.
It seems like we've violently broken the falling wedge pattern with high volume. The odds for this are increasing with every hour. |
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