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Jeeeeeesus Christ! What did happen during the night?!?!?!? From 7400 to 10 350 on Bitstamp (10 540 on coinbase)!!! This is the greatest pump in less than 12 hours in the history of Bitcoin (at least for the last years). Back to bed now (fingers crossed for 15K after I wake up). LOL
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Freshly saved 500 euro on its way to the exchange. To be honest, I am kind of surprised that bears tried to break the 7700 support. I don't get it why we should feel desperate with 2% drop below this support. If it is not comfirmed in the coming weeks, then all this was noise. Most TA won't even consider it as broken if it is cancelled soon. Now the support down to 7K has increased to 2700 BTC in Bitstamp. This is enough to despair even the best bear manipulator in the world. It is like a street with a dead end, dear bears! You may try to break it, but the result will be broken heads  The volume is low, meaning that besides the usual trades nobody is in a hurry to sell. And this is a sign of the failure of the bears, who thought with the sell of 700 BTC on one exchange can bring havoc and despair. You have no good or bad news, dear bears, so your fail will be epic. 8K coming in ( edited now: 2 weeks 2 days. 10K and above in the coming months days. )  Cheers to the hodlers! hahahaha That's an interesting perspective. I hope that you are correct. This is my 2nd reply today, but things developed too quickly. I tried to be conservative in my forecast knowing many are going to laugh at me. But I am not surprised of this quick recovery above 8K. Not at all! Congrats to all firm hodlers once again! (Btw, I bought with that 500 euro minutes before the epic pump ) |
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Previous support level of $7,700 breached.
The bear that tried to break the 7700 support spotted:  |
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Freshly saved 500 euro on its way to the exchange. To be honest, I am kind of surprised that bears tried to break the 7700 support. I don't get it why we should feel desperate with 2% drop below this support. If it is not comfirmed in the coming weeks, then all this was noise. Most TA won't even consider it as broken if it is cancelled soon. Now the support down to 7K has increased to 2700 BTC in Bitstamp. This is enough to despair even the best bear manipulator in the world. It is like a street with a dead end, dear bears! You may try to break it, but the result will be broken heads The volume is low, meaning that besides the usual trades nobody is in a hurry to sell. And this is a sign of the failure of the bears, who thought with the sell of 700 BTC on one exchange can bring havoc and despair. You have no good or bad news, dear bears, so your fail will be epic. 8K coming in 2 weeks. 10K and above in the coming months. Cheers to the hodlers! |
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Hi WO Gang! I had a nasty herpes on my left eye and spent the last 2 weeks fighting with it. Fortunately, I got completely healed without any complications. The small fiat reserve which I left after the last buying of a portion of bitcoin turned out to be completely enough for the unexpected expenses (I had also 3 medical interventions on my teeth). I am so happy to live with the expectation of the purchase at the end of each month, so I don't care how much we bleed now. Since I don't have a crystal ball to sell high and buy low, the only way to increase my stash is the famous buy and hodl! My luck is so bad, that if I sell a big amount with the hope of buying lower, it is certain that either the price will never fall below that level again or, I will become greedy and try another trade which will cancel my previous profit. (Well, it may not be only the bad luck or the curse of God, but just the human mentality which tends to become more greedy after each success.) This was tested many times in 2016 and 2017. No matter how many successful trades I made, the profit remains much lower than by just holding for the same period and not selling. Confirmed and verified! I hope we will see soon the next spectacular bull run but even if we won't, I prefer to live with a hope postponed in time, rather than to lose the hope and live in bitterness! (r0ach is exhibit A for the last type) |
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$11 320
The support at $7 500 looks solid, so I think we've seen the local bottom at $7700. Besides, the majority of the traders are in some loss currently, so any other crash looks less probable now. From now on, I expect a gradual recovery above $10K. With the approaching of the halving, $10K should not tease anymore the weak hands to sell as an insurance. I expect a peak around 13K but during the holidays we usually have some 10-15%-ish correction, hence my prediction.
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The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.
Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.
It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving.
I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO. I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20. If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II. Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment. If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth. It is good to have a Plan B (pun intended), in case things don't go the way we expect. So, I appreciate every well informed contrarian opinion even if it's bearish. It is good to play every possible scenario. The worst you are talking about - staying at the current levels long after the halving is only theoretically possible, IMHO. With almost all bitcoins mined and millions (probably even billions) new investors, I don't think this is a realistic scenario after 3 halvings. For example, after the one year bear market we saw a strong bull run with an increase more than 4 times, while most of the traders were still asking themselves if the 3k bottom was the last! There were no good news and the halving was a year away. This is a clear sign that 3K was not a real price but way below that price. The Summer action was also a good sign, since it showed that the exchanges have a good liquidity and can sustain 10K price. The bad news of bakkt's flop was a major blow to that support, but still the price in the next days fell only 15%, not 30%+ like in some previos bad days. So, even without institutional investors, we can expect the price will continue to grow. This will mean a 10K-ish rise of the price each year, so by 2025 we definitely should be above 50K. Then only 450 BTC will be mined each day and many more will be lost, as Dabs pointed out. Again, I don't think it will be the case, this is at least for me the worst bearish practically possible scenario. And since in the high volatile markets there are always explosive bull runs, it is highly probable that 50K will be touched much earlier. |
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The support at 7.5K looks pretty solid especially on Bitstamp - above 2K BTC need to be sold to get that low. It is unusually high. Typically on Bitstamp is needed 300-500 BTC to move the price by 5%. On CB it is 1.95K. And this hasn't changed since the first drop to 7.7K. May be the traders stopped selling because of this support. Now, if the bears decide to put pressure on this support, it will cost them a lot. And they risk a violent rebound above 10K, which will ruin their plan of a long suppressing of the price. What they hope is the support to dissolve itself and with much smaller sells to get there. Hopefully the bulls won't allow it. Next 7 days are critical. I would give 75% chances that 7.7K was the last bottom and we will be recovering above 9k in the next week. |
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This is the chart from the Summer of 2017. After the local top at 2900-ish, we had a falling wedge with a bottom around 1800 - kinda 40%-ish drop. The bull run that followed ended at 4800-ish, which is 2.66 times higher than the local bottom and 1.65 times higher than the previous ATH. After that another crash to 3K, and the rest is history. My point is that this pattern can repeat now - a bull run to 18-20K, then a crash to 12K. And after that a 6x bull run to 72K. That's what I call hopium for the night. Going to bed now  |
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Here childhood has been stolen? nha..  This pic tells it all (Time is the best as always!):  |
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I didn't hesitate to buy with my saved salary above 10K, so now I am going to wait? No, thanks, I am directly buying. Hopefully my small 0.052 BTC purchase at $7950 will trigger the next bull run Next month I will have more fiat - like 1000$, and I will buy even if we are above 10K. |
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Same old, same old. Weak hands, who were sitting on hopes of some profit above 10K, now are selling in shock how their dreams died. Hodlers not affected. Just another BTFD opportunity. The recovery may be more quick and violent than weak hands expect.
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[edited out]
By "all in" I mean all saved fiat. I own an appartment and a car. With my current profit from Bitcoin, I have the same amount that I will obtain from my salary for the next 20 years until I retire. And I usually save 2/3 of my salary which I convert immediately into bitcoins. Am I at the "fuck you" zone? Not yet, as I have to ensure my retirement. But in the 30-40K price range I will have enough to do it at least in my country, and live happily in a nice beach villa for the rest of my life. That is why I said this is an important level to me. On the other hand, I prefer to wait for the price which I believe is achievable in my lifetime. 40K is a too low and sure target, 120K is way more chalenging but satisfying. So I have 2 plans which depend on my needs in real life. If I am convinced that 40K is the top of the next bull run before a long and nasty bear year(s), I may be tempted to sell most of my stash. But if I am not sure, I will spend only 10-20% at that price range and continue to sell up to 120K. I may use some scheme like 10, 20, 30, 40% on every 50% (or 75%) rise of the price. It is based on your suggestions, which I tweaked a bit, so the overall loss is smaller compared to selling all at 120K. It saves more bitcoins for the bigger prices! My final sell would be at 120K. Plus, anything that I buy from now on untill I start to cash out, I will keep for the time when we finally reach the moon. Will it be 500K, 1mil, etc. I don't know yet. Time will tell. What you are planning makes sense, and almost no matter what it seems difficult to really have any meaningful sense regarding whether any blow off top would be at previous ATH (path) x2, x6 or x10 or some other amount, so I am unsure about how prudent it would be to make vastly differing plans based on your anticipation of your then feelings about whether a blow off top has been reached. Another dynamic that I can sense that you are toying with is to consider to be able to move some of the value that you have in BTC to some other locked in and assured asset, in order to preserve your BTC profits, and I am kind of torn about the necessity to act on those kinds of motivations, even though I understand that so many people have those kinds of motivations - so none of us can really step into the comfort level of other people. Part of my thinking comes from the Morpheus meme that you might not need to hedge so much into other investments because merely keeping some value in bitcoin will be sustaining enough based on all available options and even while understanding that BTC corrections might still be violent, BTC is still likely to sufficiently hold enough value that there is no real rush to employ rash strategies in terms of cashing out your holdings. This morpheus meme:  I think it is perfectly normal to have 2 plans. We all know that Bitcoin will reach 100K or more. The only unknown variable now is exactly how long this will take. The historical pattern says end of 2021 or early 2022. But nobody can be sure about that. We may need another halving to occur i.e. after 2024, or even more. In that case there will be many dissapointments and missed opportunites to become rich. And man's heart can't endure forever such bad things. Considering however, that I continue to buy in all these years, I may reach my goal in terms of fiat for prices around 50K. I don't want this to happen, and I don't think it will happen, but it is theoretically possible that we are stuck at levels 20K-50K for a prolonged period of time. Let's say I have 16 BTC (they could have been much more, but in 2015 I didn't even suspect that Bitcoin price could go much higher than $200 so soon). So the 1st super duper bearish plan (based on my personal 10x profit) is: 2,00 for $36 000 2,00 for $40 000 4,35 for $44 000 4,15 for $46 000 3,50 for $48 000 Total: $700 000. If I can buy more coins before 36K, I will keep them for 100K. And if the year is 2025 or later, I will have may be 3-4 or more coins. Considering my expenses are $5K per year and that I can build a luxury house for 200K, this amount should be enough even if I quadruple the monthly expenses. ( I am speaking for an early retirement 10 years instead of 20 from now.) But what I am hoping for is selling based on the follwing pattern until 2022 (plus all bitcoins bought before my 1st selling point, kept for later moons above 200K). It is a tweaked version of your plan, which you gave to mindrust some time ago. It is based on the principle 10, 20, 30, 40% sells after each 50% increase. The last sell could be distributed between 120K and 150K. Sell Price BTC balance PfolioBeforeValue BTCSell Amt PfolioAfterValue soldValue soldTotal $40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 0.00000000 $640,000 $0.00 $0.00 $40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 1.60000000 $576,000 $64,000 $64,000 $60,000 14.40000000 $864,000 3.20000000 $672,000 $192,000 $256,000 $90,000 11.20000000 $1,008,000 4.80000000 $576,000 $432,000 $688,000 $135,000 6.40000000 $864,000 6.40000000 $0 $864,000 $1,552,000 Then I can build a beach villa which I could use or lend. And one day if I am sick of it, I surely will be able to sell it 2-3 times higher, so the initial cash out at 40K-60K won't be lost. P.S. I know this looks like hopium especially to the daily traders, but this increase is only 10x from 14K this year. There were much bigger increases even for one year, not to mention for 3 years. The only question is when 100K, not if! |
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Quantum segwit AI blockchain ETF denied?  Me looking at BAKKT volume vs. Stamp BTCUSD Was this the "weak handshake" already? Now will you please go up again, BTC? This face is like a cartoon. So funny! This is the look of all panic sellers when we recover in several days! Obviously, we need such dumps to get out of the falling wedge. If this is the price for breaking the 12K resistance, so be it! Go BTC! |
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It is my earnest hope that the reemergence of sound money will cause corporations to finally look beyond next quarter's numbers.
bitcoin can and will change a lot of things. i doubt greed is one of those things. personally i am not the greedy kind of guy regarding fiat. but boy, when it comes to bitcoin i experienced me being greedy to an extent it started to make me wonder. boeing got caught in the same trap as the german car industry: too big, too powerful, lobbyists too successful, decade after decade... that is one of the reasons why start ups sometimes are able to beat the behemoths. and yes my friends, that is also a part of the reasons why we will win the race for sound money. btc price in the vicinity of 10k per btc is actually a sign we are winning already. Here goes my last merit. It sounds like me. I never was a greedy guy regarding fiat. But soon after I went into Bitcoin, I became so jealous of those having 100+ bitcoins. I make everything possible, without going into debt to the banks, to invest all into it. I would be nervous with such an approach, but let's see if maybe you can clarify what you mean by "all in"? You do have some other investments, like stock or real estate or bonds, no? So, in that regard, if you have some of those other investments, then you would only by "all in" with new investing? I must admit that I have been focusing primarily on bitcoin investing, once I got into it in late 2013, and there was one time in about September 2014 (BTC around $380) that I was considering removing significant quantity of funds from my 401k (I had identified a possible way to accomplish such as a kind of rollover without tax penalties) which would have caused a near doubling of my BTC investment and thereby also bring down my average cost per BTC considerably, too, but I got chicken shit regarding over-investing in bitcoin and I had come to the conclusion that I had more than enough bitcoin in my holdings, and I really did not need to take on more risk (into bitcoin) by diversifying out of some of my traditional investments that, even though they had been performing mediocre, they were still largely holding their value (even accounting for inflation, etc). Of course, in retrospect, I see that I could have made a killing with such a move to diversify out of some of my 401k into BTC, but at the same time, I am still content that I did NOT do it - because in my thinking, my BTC appreciation (even accounting for risk etc) has already been amazing enough, and such considerable BTC appreciation (without my really cashing out of BTC and rediversifying back into fiat based investing) has caused my total percentage value into BTC to become quite lopsided in favor of BTC, which I still conclude is good enough to ride out without needs to either rediversify back into traditional investments nor to engage in any kind of behavior that dilutes the stability of my traditional investments (that could largely sustain me completely, if I were to need to live off of them... but now they just merely continue to ride and to appreciate in value based on the traditional stock market and various traditional means of diversifying within those investments). I too think that building such a strong support at 9.7-10.3K is huge. In 2017 for several months Bitcoin made 6x+ increase starting with the last long support at 3K. With a support at 10K we can expect either an explosive run to 50K+ or more gradual increases with other major resistances turned into supports. I am willing to wait untill we are above 100K, and gathering nerves and courage to endure all the coming crashes. I am convinced that 40K+ will be touched without much hype just by regular mass adoption. So what is the point in selling most at this price? I personally will be tempted to sell something for sure, because it is an important price goal for me. I will sell probably 10-20% just to buy land where to build my future house. I hope to be able to hodl until 120K or something, even if it takes more than 5 years for that. This is my hopium  Everyone needs some hopium to live. No matter how dark or dull looks the present situation. There is always the hope. No troll, no chart, no government, etc. can steal my hope, if only I hodl firm! (After all, the other meaning of hodl besides the original misspel is Hold On for Dear Life.) Are you thinking that BTC prices reaching $120k in about 5 years or less would be sufficient in order for you to go into a kind of "fuck you" status? or at least to be able to live off of your BTC indefinitely without having a need or dependence on a traditional JOB? Surely, a lot of us believe that there are decent chances that your hopium price could be reached within that timeframe, so it is not unrealistic... However, since "decent chances" is not the same as "a given", there are always needs to prepare for a lot worse scenarios, which makes it seem more than reasonable to label your tentative ideas (plan) as a kind of "hopium." By "all in" I mean all saved fiat. I own an appartment and a car. With my current profit from Bitcoin, I have the same amount that I will obtain from my salary for the next 20 years until I retire. And I usually save 2/3 of my salary which I convert immediately into bitcoins. Am I at the "fuck you" zone? Not yet, as I have to ensure my retirement. But in the 30-40K price range I will have enough to do it at least in my country, and live happily in a nice beach villa for the rest of my life. That is why I said this is an important level to me. On the other hand, I prefer to wait for the price which I believe is achievable in my lifetime. 40K is a too low and sure target, 120K is way more chalenging but satisfying. So I have 2 plans which depend on my needs in real life. If I am convinced that 40K is the top of the next bull run before a long and nasty bear year(s), I may be tempted to sell most of my stash. But if I am not sure, I will spend only 10-20% at that price range and continue to sell up to 120K. I may use some scheme like 10, 20, 30, 40% on every 50% (or 75%) rise of the price. It is based on your suggestions, which I tweaked a bit, so the overall loss is smaller compared to selling all at 120K. It saves more bitcoins for the bigger prices! My final sell would be at 120K. Plus, anything that I buy from now on untill I start to cash out, I will keep for the time when we finally reach the moon. Will it be 500K, 1mil, etc. I don't know yet. Time will tell. |
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It is my earnest hope that the reemergence of sound money will cause corporations to finally look beyond next quarter's numbers.
bitcoin can and will change a lot of things. i doubt greed is one of those things. personally i am not the greedy kind of guy regarding fiat. but boy, when it comes to bitcoin i experienced me being greedy to an extent it started to make me wonder. boeing got caught in the same trap as the german car industry: too big, too powerful, lobbyists too successful, decade after decade... that is one of the reasons why start ups sometimes are able to beat the behemoths. and yes my friends, that is also a part of the reasons why we will win the race for sound money. btc price in the vicinity of 10k per btc is actually a sign we are winning already. Here goes my last merit. It sounds like me. I never was a greedy guy regarding fiat. But soon after I went into Bitcoin, I became so jealous of those having 100+ bitcoins. I make everything possible, without going into debt to the banks, to invest all into it. I too think that building such a strong support at 9.7-10.3K is huge. In 2017 for several months Bitcoin made 6x+ increase starting with the last long support at 3K. With a support at 10K we can expect either an explosive run to 50K+ or more gradual increases with other major resistances turned into supports. I am willing to wait untill we are above 100K, and gathering nerves and courage to endure all the coming crashes. I am convinced that 40K+ will be touched without much hype just by regular mass adoption. So what is the point in selling most at this price? I personally will be tempted to sell something for sure, because it is an important price goal for me. I will sell probably 10-20% just to buy land where to build my future house. I hope to be able to hodl until 120K or something, even if it takes more than 5 years for that. This is my hopium Everyone needs some hopium to live. No matter how dark or dull looks the present situation. There is always the hope. No troll, no chart, no government, etc. can steal my hope, if only I hodl firm! (After all, the other meaning of hodl besides the original misspel is Hold On for Dear Life.) |
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I still don't know how bakkt works. At first I thought they have bitcoins which they lend to the clients. Then I read somewhere that all bitcoins on bakkt are tranferred by the clients themselves. This would mean that bakkt is not an exchange and investors should find another way of bying bitcoins - from exchanges or OTC. Which is a bit dissapointing if it is true. The major concern of the institutions is how to securely buy and store bitcoins. If bakkt doesn't help them, then nothing is changed. On the other hand, the bitcoins locked in bakkt futures contracts are removed from the exchanges. I think that this was the plan of bakkt creators - to develop a regulated market which is immune to exchange arbitrages. With time, if the volume grows significantly, this may have a strong positive effect on the price. But for now with this pathetic volume 29 BTC this looks like hopium.
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I was so bored that I decided to visit my old localbitcoins account from 2015. I was clicking faucets back then and then immediately selling. If only I knew what will happen in 2 years. Oh, dear! There were remaining 0.0018 BTC in my account. Well, at least I can buy several drinks. Cheers! |
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Mic tell the goose to fuck off so we can move on  |
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