Two random visual cues: The price movement doesn't fit well at all, but tendency and time periods does.  Each time the sum of bids and asks on the book was lower than the price, we could observe a local price minimum and trend reversal following.  |
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You're right and as you said: the parameters have changed, the users have changed and their behavior, too. But still the price is a reflection of that.
I think human behavior and emotion could be modeled and that's where TA comes to play.
Disclaimer: I'm talking about theory.
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It's not the same at all. Not even remotely comparable.
Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- because that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved. The beef you have with weather forecasts may also be more to do with how they are presented rather than the forecast anyway. "48% chance of rain" is much more useful than a picture of rainclouds over your city.
On the other hand, technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour due to regular patterns in aggregate human emotion. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old.
You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play. You almost never see any TA that attempts to model the reasons for rises and falls. They treat price falls due to bad news, technical glitches, and manipulation equally, assuming that the average market participant knows nothing of the underlying causes too. This may have been (somewhat) useful for Wall St. a century ago, but to an Internet currency in 2013? Really? One could say, that (historical) price data reflects the underlying users and their feelings, behavior and reactions. Furthermore TA could be translated into "mathematical functions" and drawing lines is only a visual representation of that. |
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What request inverval on /api/tradeHistory would you be comfortable with?
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 Not exactly, but that's the literal translation of the article's title, and I couldn't make a better one. http://index.hu/tech/2013/05/28/bitcoinrol_beszelt_zuckerberg_olvasonknak/Alright. Translated the entire first part of the article: It is already confirmed that Facebook founder, Marck Zuckerberg is in Hungary. He's been staying in Europe for a while, in Coppenhagen he had a discussion with the prime minister, in Germany he talked with representatives, and he spent the Sunday in Vienna. By Monday evening he was in Hungary, eating in the restaurant called Spíler. Our readers caught him last night at 1:30 AM around the Király street. They could not talk with him much, but based on what he said even Bitcoin, the digital currency, could be the reason behind his visit to Hungary. Here's Gábor's report: We wanted to take a photo with him, but he didn't let us. We asked him why he came to Budapest, he asked back whether we know about Bitcoin. I had no idea what it is, didn't even understand what he's saying, but a buddy of mine knew about it, but by the time he'd have told it to him he already walked away from us, in a polite but assertive way. We have got no idea what Bitcoin has to do with Budapest, maybe the famously strange CEO was just kidding. index.hu is one of the biggest Hungarian news sites, they're very reliable, but the part about Bitcoin is entirely based on a reader's letter. At the same time, they say, was a Bitcoin meetup nearby in Budapest. 
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Is the socket.io actually working? I can't get the live_orders to work. Also, the live_trades works 1 out of 3 times. Any suggestions?
cmp
I can't really help, but report my experience. live_orders connects, but never returned any anything besides the connected notification. The events 'order deleted', 'order created' and 'order changed' should deliver the data. live_trades works more or less, but sadly I had to find out, it's significantly delayed. |
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Why were you placed in this mental institution? Did you volunteer or were you forced? He hold a Bitcoin summit in Finland about a month ago and the hotel crew screwed up in many ways, a theft stole a notebook with a significant amount of unsecured coins, which, as far as I know, weren't stolen in the end, but the following hours and days after that event were quite stressful and he got in an arguement with the hotel staff. After that, he was gone for some days. |
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Sorry, I'm not sure, if I got your question right, but you want to maintain a live orderbook without rate limitations? You don't need to download the whole book every few seconds.
I think this is the way to go:
- download full order book
- subscribe to order book updates via their streaming socket
Because you only receive updates, traffic is quite low, but as rate limit allows, you can and should do periodical synchronization by downloading the full book.
I'm not sure about the reasons for not downloading the full book, so I can only guess that it's about rate limit and data transfer.
Does that satisfy your needs?
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Do we know Mr. Greenwald's position on Bitcoin?
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You can get 5GH for only $350, so ASICs aren't only for a handful of people.
Yes I understand that but do you understand that with difficulty jumping at 24% every 2 week the time from profit to break even will be shorter. Its not like GPU's took over a year to realize you need equipment. Every time a new technology shows up the diff shoots faster and high than before. It will come a time that the money you make will be needed to purchase new equipment and after all has been said and done you end up playing a zero sum game. This will also get to a point where instead of many miners it will be fewer miners and so on. What do you expect? Free money for everyone? You need to step up your game, if you want an edge. Why should you be previleged in contrast to any other miner? If you want to earn, you why have to stand out. Even with an increse of 24 % there will by ways. Why do you dislike chip sell and groupbuys? It's the cost efficient and best technology you (and almost any other miner) can buy right now, so your "share" should be "fair". Higher difficulty will decrese miners? So will the difficulty afterwards, which makes that argument invalid. Anyway, I feel your frustration and if you don't want to invest in something risky as mining, you could invest in mining companies like ASICMiner for example. They have a great history and honor transparency, without much effort you should be able to see, that they actually pay most of the mined coins to their shareholders. Many may say we all should still consider ourselfs as the lucky ones, who saw the oppertunity Bitcoin early enough, even if it's already 2013.  |
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Well, SHA hashes, but doesn't crypt. You should read a bit about cryptography, as it isn't about the publisher, but the math behind which makes an algorithm considered as secure.
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we should stop metioning "Bitcoin" in the media and instead using "x-bit" as currency:
XBT is the semi-official abbreviation of bitcoin (check xe.com) We should at first find an appropriate abbreviation in the corresponding threads. While I like XBT, I think a statements like "I bought xxx for 10000000 XBT" is almost as bad as "I bought xxx for 0.0023 BTC". OP is correct. I don't want cheap coins, because I want to see Bitcoin rising. Nevertheless, it's all relative. Compared to earlier this year and last year and before, 100 isn't cheap but damn expensive. Right now I'd say "95 is pretty cheap, 70 is crazy cheap and I'd ship in all I could mobilize, 50?! Fuck, this is almost the end!", but as the price will change, the perception about cheap coins will do so, too. What people always want though, is buying in "just a bit lower than right now". |
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MtGox can do wire transfer to anywhere in the world including US I think this only represents a smaller number of all Gox users, but according to the MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] thread cashing out isn't that smooth at all. |
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To me, it looks like it is going down now.. Many of the bulls think speculatively that by selling now, it is easy to buy back later. While this thinking is wishful (not all of them can buy the coins back - sub-100 or even at all(!!)), it is enough to take the price down in a long slide to around $50.
Only the growing usage will save bitcoin now. It may take months before it catches up. We are 2 months to the bear market now, I would not be surprised for 2 more months. 4 more would be a surprise.
Don't sell your coins. In 2011 only the ones lost who sold. I bought about BTC5000 then from somebody who could have held onto his treasure but chose to throw it away for a pittance. Read my threads (links in the sig). Don't sell.
Our perma-bull is feeling bearish. I feel odd, like a terror has gripped my very bones. Sold 20% of all bitcoins, heres hoping I can short. Same thoughts. Sad to hear, as I loved those ultra bullish bold predictions. rpietila, why do you come up with this conclusion now? Nothing fundamental has changed and the only argument one could come up would be "we didn't skyrock already, that's why". |
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If you modify the API anyway, could you also have a look at this?e/remaining amount of the cancelled order at the point of time when it is cancelled. A nice and fast realtime streaming API would be great. I found out how to use their socket.io API some days ago, but the worst part: it's slower than the good old pulling and doesn't include timestamps. |
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wtf happened to the 5K wall at 100?
Removed a minute ago. |
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Oh Chartbuddy. You make me nervous. You didn't look so good for a long time..  And when he raises the curtain... |
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These dumps always seems to happen at around 5am UK time, I wonder where whoever keeps doing this is based.
its 1AM on the east coast. someone is purposely trying to bring down price when people are not watching? Let's say you sell a huge amount of coins. What would happen, if you sell at A) main trading hours or B) at unregular times, like saturday night? Is it more likely to induce a crash at A or B? |
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Contrary to my previous pledge to buy at $50, I'll wait for the price to drop to $6.14  Peeww.. Don't you see, it's almost symmetrical, even if you draw it like that? The lows (79.00, 88.00) are clearly rising. But I see, where you're getting and it really doesn't scream "up up up" at the moment. |
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Does anyone have a link to a site where I can see how many bitcoins were bought/sold in the past few hours? I remember seeing a screen shot to one. Thanks in advance.
http://mogsta.com/btc/ This? I liked the pure barometer more, though.. |
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