Happy New Year from down under...
Without intending to, I ended up acting as a bit of a Bitcoin advocate tonight while out with friends at a New Years Eve party. I tried to enlighten them (inadvertently came up with a different analogy each time) as to what Bitcoin really was, but in the end the main 'argument' they had against it was "If I can't touch it, it's not real - I don't trust the internet with it". Which is ironic since that is basically what they're doing with their bank accounts.
One guy was a Financial Advisor (capital 'F', capital 'A' - his distinction, not mine) who said he was happy to "argue against Bitcoin all night". I (successfully, I think) countered every roadblock he threw up about Bitcoin and ended up betting him that one Bitcoin would be worth more than $50,000USD in 3 years (perhaps a little bullish, although can you blame me?)*. I confess, I may have been a little inebriated by this point, but I am getting a little fed up with the ramblings of people who have not taken a few minutes out of their day to research what Bitcoin actually is (i.e. a protocol as well as a currency), but instead act as if they're experts who foresee the demise of this 'imaginary money'.
Does anyone else get a little fed up with this sort of attitude?
(Apologies if this post does not belong in this thread... It's just that this is the main thread I read (every morning without fail, I trawl through the 8 or so pages that have been posted overnight... > 8 pages = something big has happened, < 8 pages = price has remained stagnant.) Although, it seems 'stagnant' in Bitcoin vernacular is akin to 'short-term' or 'temporary' in normal trading terms.)
*Bought at $1060 and have been 'hodling' ever since.
Well done! Fucking well done! Thanks for being so sincere and keep hodling - you'll be in the black shortly no worries at all! Thanks hey! There are some very nice guys on this forum  . A few girls are on here too.  Yes, I purchased into the last rise in price and was "under water" so to speak for several months in the Summer. Just held on and it all worked out. The only people that really lose any value are those that panic then sell before the price rises again. Hopefully, in your case, you won't have to wait too long. Things are looking pretty good right now I would say. Historically The $30 drop in 2011 up to reaching $30 in 2013 was the longest it took to reach the same price. Holding for 1 year should put you in good position. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. |
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It [fraud] also requires the deception to be practiced "in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain." This second half is one thing that makes it different from a "hoax."
Of course this merely pushes the question back a square: What is unfair? Yes, exactly! The Wikipedia definition requires the arbitror to not only conclude that the deception was deliberate, but that the gain that resulted from it was "unfair." So we are back a square, indeed. If a whale places a 3000 BTC ask wall to scare the small fish into selling, does that qualify as "deception"? A larger whale could eat his wall in a single bite. And even if one concludes that this is deliberate deception, is this also "unfair"? The market participants are playing by the same rules, some of them just happen to hold more capital. Lastly, I'm not even convinced that profitable manipulation is even possible over the long term. One reason that I'm excited about bitcoin and the power of the blockchain is that I believe it will allow us to write more exact contracts and motivate de-ambiguity or our legal system. I think this is happening right now. 1100 BTC volume in the last hour and we barely moved. |
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Look at this guy. He was somehow able to turn an entire 1000 red candle into green. |
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600 or so coins dumped. Small potatoes.  Why does this feel like 1 individual doing this?  |
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Mtgox 500 support wall at $781 was obliterated instantly.
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Interesting debate guys regarding market manipulation. I think aminorex's definition below is a good one (regardless of one's views on the ethics of such an activity): Market manipulation is generally understood to mean trading for purposes of effecting a price impact, not otherwise in the interest of the trader. For example, sham sales, in which the counterparties have pooled resources, or one party takes both roles, so that transactions occur at their preferred prices, can be used to create a trap for speculators, who trade at prices not determined by market forces, but by the collusion of the manipulator(s).
According to this definition, I believe that market manipulation is indeed happening. The next question is "is this wrong"? vdcc says this is fraud: No violence, but fraud yes. If you pump/dump coins (or even fake volume and trades) for financial gain, then you are defrauding honest traders.
I'm not convinced, but I'd like to hear further arguments. Here's what I think is fraud: A whale calls up the owner of an exchange and, says "I want to put up a 5,000 BTC ask wall to scare the fish into selling to me for cheaper, but I don't actually want to risk a bigger whale buying all my coins. Can I pay you 50 BTC to ensure that if someone tries to buy my wall that your trading engine encounters 'technical difficulties'?" If the owner agrees, this is fraud and we have laws that would apply in such a situation. I agree this is fraud, as I don't expect the exchange owners to do this. (I wish they stated clearly how they stand in such cases). This is probably unlawful. Even regarding this, I do not want regulation, because a) regulation invites to corruption b) excessive regulation and control leads to erotion of ethics on the part of the exchange ( anything that is not expressly forbidden will seem ethical, ref current situation with the banks) and mostly, c) it leads to complacency among the traders, who will not care to evaluate the exchanges themself, but blindly trust the regulators (ref the Madoff example). Another thing is a voluntary organization to check on the exchanges for their members, that could be useful. Now we have only the press and this forum, which is better than nothing. But if two colluding whales buy and sell to each other on the open market to try and make it appear there is more volume at a price higher or lower than what they believe to be the market price, then could not one argue that this is simply "strategy"? Is not everyone still playing by the same rules?
Exchange owners don't need to involve anyone else to do fraud. They have millions of dollars of our money and BTC with no auditors. Volunteer organizations would prove a security risk. Wasn't there a huge incident when an auditor's account got hacked and lots of BTC was stolen? Was that Mtgox? Sorry don't recall the exchange without looking it up. |
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If major retailers, such as Overstock.com, intend to immediately convert bitcoins to fiat, then is spending bitcoins equivalent to selling on an exchange? If so, there is little incentive to spend because it adversely impacts your investment, unless sufficient new fiat is flowing into the exchanges to offset your bitcoin purchases. 2014 could turn out to be a very bad year for bulls if too many large merchants decide to accept bitcoin.  Isn't what BitPay does with its BTC more important then what Overstock does with it? Or maybe we can start a whole new group of activists who support merchants who don't instantly convert their BTC to fiat at the POS. BitPay is in fact way ahead in the game. They are one of the big players doing the real arbitraging. They have an internal engine where they pull all bid & asks from all exchanges and always get the best prices. Source is Gallippi himself, during a conference 3 weeks ago. They surely have OTC deals and shadier stuff as well. Their business grows with Bitcoin and also makes Bitcoin grow, plus we know they are in good standing with the US Gov. Yeah... I wouldn't worry too much about BitPay. In fact, recommend them (or coinbase or whatever) to every merchant you know. It'll be good for us all. My point was would you rather do business with Bitpay or a competitor who didn't hedge BTC by reselling on exchanges or more realistic only sold 50% BTC back on the exchange. |
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If major retailers, such as Overstock.com, intend to immediately convert bitcoins to fiat, then is spending bitcoins equivalent to selling on an exchange? If so, there is little incentive to spend because it adversely impacts your investment, unless sufficient new fiat is flowing into the exchanges to offset your bitcoin purchases. 2014 could turn out to be a very bad year for bulls if too many large merchants decide to accept bitcoin. Isn't what BitPay does with its BTC more important then what Overstock does with it? Or maybe we can start a whole new group of activists who support merchants who don't instantly convert their BTC to fiat at the POS. |
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Feels like a game of chicken. On Mtgox, no one wants to touch the walls at 795 or 810 and price is just bouncing in between. |
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Interesting debate guys regarding market manipulation. I think aminorex's definition below is a good one (regardless of one's views on the ethics of such an activity): Market manipulation is generally understood to mean trading for purposes of effecting a price impact, not otherwise in the interest of the trader. For example, sham sales, in which the counterparties have pooled resources, or one party takes both roles, so that transactions occur at their preferred prices, can be used to create a trap for speculators, who trade at prices not determined by market forces, but by the collusion of the manipulator(s).
According to this definition, I believe that market manipulation is indeed happening. The next question is "is this wrong"? vdcc says this is fraud: No violence, but fraud yes. If you pump/dump coins (or even fake volume and trades) for financial gain, then you are defrauding honest traders.
I'm not convinced, but I'd like to hear further arguments. Here's what I think is fraud: A whale calls up the owner of an exchange and, says "I want to put up a 5,000 BTC ask wall to scare the fish into selling to me for cheaper, but I don't actually want to risk a bigger whale buying all my coins. Can I pay you 50 BTC to ensure that if someone tries to buy my wall that your trading engine encounters 'technical difficulties'?" If the owner agrees, this is fraud and we have laws that would apply in such a situation. But if two colluding whales buy and sell to each other on the open market to try and make it appear there is more volume at a price higher or lower than what they believe to be the market price, then could not one argue that this is simply "strategy"? Is not everyone still playing by the same rules? That's pretty much the way I see it. It's our job to decipher fake volume. This isn't the stock market. BTC exchanges is an entirely different monster. However are there actually any laws that apply to these kinds of exchanges? Any precedent? |
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Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795
Things might get interesting.
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Rumour time! TIL that a major US hedge fund investor will announce a significant position in #bitcoin within the next several days. Happy New Year! Source: https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/417769054326108160More details here: The investment firm has apparently raised even more money than SecondMarket's Bitcoin Invesment Trust. I'll repost with details and firm names once the full story is pieced together. if someone buys a Significant amount of bitcoin all within a couple days, will that make the price dip or spike? I read in another post someone saying that it would cause the price to spike but that doesn't make sense to me. Someone buying a lot would cause the price to spike, that's logical, right? Depends if someone dumps it in their lap but usually yes - if someone really wants to buy then they will buy upwards! Depends on what significant amount is. Usually 1000 will do it. But won't raise price by much. |
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Random late night question: Have any of you actually started a rally or crash with your order? I'm curious how that feels. |
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That's the first time I have ever heard someone say that they may have made a mistake while they're sitting on a 40+ dollar per bitcoin profit. If you get nervous this easily even though you're in profit land I wonder how you'd feel when your long or short position is sitting in the red? Are you sure trading is something for you? No, I'm not nervous about my position. I'm OK with small gains/losses. I'm nervous about the 'feeling', something just doesn't seem right. I had a similar feeling after the ATH when we fell back to the 1k level. As long as I have XBT I'm all right. I know the feeling. I've went only 60% one way or the other so far. Now I'm back to 50% BTC / 50% fiat. With Jan 31 coming up, I just don't want to overcommit. I only had 20% BTC when Mtgox went from 700 to 800. |
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Mtgox: And it's gone!  Got to be 1 guy buying and selling to increase artificial volume. |
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MTGOX - Something's happening!
Some cool bot setting up 300 Buy wall at 799. Another buying slowly (and selling.)
Entertaining nonethless might reach the 24 hour high.
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aaand... back to your regularly scheduled stagnant market observation.
Let me know if there are any walls.
Huge resistance Wall on Mtgox at price: 792...for 200. Might get interesting. Might not. And it's gone. Now Huge support wall at 799 -- Manipulation.... |
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Do all the pointless NSFW images on here annoy anyone else? It makes it impossible to read this forum unless I'm in private.
Ignoring doesn't really work because other people like to quote them.
Can't say I've seen anything much worse than the junk mail that arrives in my letterbox advertising lingerie, or a few of the TV adverts that have aired recently I'd prefer not to have them either. It doesn't really add anything to the thread (or force people to click on them.) |
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Don't know what to do! Went from 58%BTC down to 50%BTC again. I need more information before making a move.
woo FFXI avatar? Yupz. And I suppose you're a very tart berry popular in Quon? |
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Don't know what to do! Went from 58%BTC down to 50%BTC again. I need more information before making a move.
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