A couple of corrective points:
1. Overstock.
They transfer into fiat immediately - probably don't even handle the BTC at all. So this has little market effect if any.
Also - they took, what 130,000 USD ish on the first day, because of all the hype. A fair percentage of that was Goat. I doubt this has continued into anything remotely significant to the overall BTC market yet. This is not relevant to the market price at the moment at all.
2. British VAT.
IMO, this will not be applied to coins, but to exchange fees. It will not be significant - if applied to coins. No one would trade in the UK at all, which is not HMRC's intention at all. This has been misinterpreted negatively here.
3. Fed selling SR stash.
As I said before, this will be a private auction at below market price, probably in tranches. It will likely go to large investment companies, who will only have an interest in a HIGHER price if they are successful bidders. If they dump, they will lose out, they will be in for investment reasons for the mid-term at least.
So - please can we all think properly and carefully about interpretation of news?
1. So BTC is sold immediately too. Maybe dark sale. Maybe not. Question is do the Overstock buyers buy back the BTC immediately? I'm guessing the answer is No. I'm going to stand by theory that 3rd party payment processors do not help BTC price. 3. They announced it. That was the problem. If they announce the final sale, that might also lower the price. No one cares what you or I think. It's what the market as a whole thinks. |
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There is an overstock of coins right now.  It's going to be interesting to find out if overstock are able to hedge against the volatility. If they are able to, then maybe there's hope for a larger adoption of bitcoin. If not, and they end up with a significant loss, instead of the small gains they expected, the signal will be bearish. You are aware they are selling their coins, right? They ought to. They have to pay their suppliers with fiat money; what else could they do? I strongly believe though that they don't give up all their income in btc... It's not wise, nor profitable.  Bitpay gets the coins, Overstock gets the lower transaction cost. And Bitpay they are better suited to manage the risk of hodling or dupming. Wait for the volume, don't buy until you see the whites of their eyes. (or at least until after my limit orders all hit) Yes. That's practically every major retailer so far. I wonder what the biggest retailer to outright accept BTC without a payment processor. Anyone know? |
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On other news: eBay UK to Allow Sale of Virtual Currency from 10th February[/size] Emily Spaven (@emilyspaven) | Published on January 16, 2014 at 21:36 GMT | Companies, Merchants, News ebay eBay is launching a dedicated Virtual Currency category on eBay Classifieds in the UK on 10th February. The Classified Ads category will allow for the sale of all types of digital currency, including bitcoin and litecoin, eBay representatives have confirmed. eBay Classifieds, which lists posts throughout the site, serves as the site’s answer to Craigslist. eBay provides the free platform for local buyers and sellers to connect, but does not participate in the transactions. http://www.coindesk.com/ebay-uk-virtual-currency-february/I think that kills localbitcoins with their 1% fees Unless eBay has seller protection, no one's going to care. |
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Couple brave souls on Mtgox trying to reverse the trend. Let's see if it catches. Looks like the entire night was reversed in 20 minutes.  I'm struggling not to short this bump up really heavily. Seems like it's too easy. HA! I would be reluctant since Huobi hasn't passed 4.800 yet. But there are some crazy dumpers in between. Might be possible to catch 1 of them. Good luck!  |
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Couple brave souls on Mtgox trying to reverse the trend. Let's see if it catches. Looks like the entire night was reversed in 20 minutes. |
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So who here wants the Mtgox 900 wall to be chewed up and who wants it to stay? I say Chew it up!  |
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Well, I'm officially tired of trying to draw support lines this week.
why we barely crossed the 2 that exist.. I just wish we'd go to 870 again already... side note or back track...the wall at 900 is just being pulled when it has a chance to be bitten.. It's 48 BTC away. I think it's real otherwise it would be pulled already. |
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wow.... anyone see that mtgox $900 wall got pulled or some glitches? there was a sale bellow $900 when the wall wasnt even touched PS : its 2.10 btc at $898..... how the fck that happened? None of the bids above $900 and at $900 was even touched Yea I just got back. How did that happen? I through the wall was lifted and then put back just for that sell order. |
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What eBay has to do is set up escrow accounts for every currency and process them automatically during the process of the auction. After buyer pays, they instantly get the coins. Their card is automatically charged. If there are any disputes, eBay and PayPal takes care of it not you. That has always been the simplest solution. I don't know why it can never be implemented. The number of problems it would solve and money saved from wasting time on stupid disputes would be ridiculous.
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That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy?
Good point, the solution store credit or refund in XBT after you pay a restocking fee. Ok so my first point wasn't too good as I realized BTC received will be proportional to price. My bad. What about returns though? Price locked in when you they receive it and process it. But you don't know when that is unless it's the tracking delivery time. I'll have to look into their return policy to see if there's any problems with it. To my knowledge, all returns have been done in BTC. Rather outstanding I must say. What this tells me is that either they are serious about trying to keep new customers, or they are keeping a portion of their bicoin sales internal (or at least on account at coinbase) I get the feeling that the BTC refunds are just a marketing ploy to try to hook new customers. I think the situation would change if you see bitcoin going up by $50 per day... Tender in = Tender out otherwise it's money laundering or leads to other problems like using overstock as an exchange. The difference is the BTC you receive is not the same as you used to pay which is completely different then any other payment system. But then again other payments don't have such fluctuation. I don't think Overstock is keeping any BTC. Coinbase is issuing BTC refunds, but Overstock deals with refund disputes rather then Coinbase mediating. However Coinbase will close a merchant's account if too many complaints I believe. There's doesn't appear to be any volatility risk on the merchant or Coinbase end since all BTC is resold instantly, but I'll have to look more closely at their policies. |
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The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.  It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange. I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts... I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in. If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open. I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market. But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash. There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back. Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me. Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you. Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few. If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops. I'm not a bear at all. Long term I'm bullish but it doesn't matter because I just trade whatever is happening at the time. Right now we're looking at this big sloppy symmetrical triangle breaking out in a downward direction. If that doesn't materialize, I'm sitting 100% fiat until something materializes up or down. I actually closed my previous trade and am sitting on my hands until there's some confirmation which looks like it'll take at least a few more hours if it happens at all. The great thing about trading is that you don't have to play all the time. Locking in small gains and more importantly not losing money are the way to go in my opinion. edit: This is just how my mind works. Don't mean to be down on anyone's strategy! Lots of opportunity for us all to make good money in this crazy market. very wize but you really have to take a sizeable position on the long term and not play with that. trading is fun and games taking the bitcoin bet is a once in a life time opportunity I think of HODLing BTC like the Deal or no Deal game show. Except the banker doesn't try to rip you off. |
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That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy?
Good point, the solution store credit or refund in XBT after you pay a restocking fee. Ok so my first point wasn't too good as I realized BTC received will be proportional to price. My bad. What about returns though? Price locked in when you they receive it and process it. But you don't know when that is unless it's the tracking delivery time. I'll have to look into their return policy to see if there's any problems with it. |
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What is up with the sell off? It is not like the FBI is auctioning off the coins tomorrow. Plus there is some really good news out there today too with a major sports team taking BTC. Sometimes I just don't get it. Actually, I NEVER get it. Yes, but they announced it. So now the price will reflect post-sale. Also new merchant is meh. They don't accept BTC as a currency. They only accept BTC as business. Yea it's good for BTC in general, but not good for the price. Hmm. I remember after the silk-road shut down announcement in Oct. there was a panic sell but then we proceeded to go on a run to the last ATH after that in November. So maybe this little panic sell off is a good sign? Well, I'm hoping for a huge panic sell off. :/ But looking at the new merchants accepting BTC, it looks like a mess dealing with refunds. Coinbase & Bitpay take no responsibility for BTC volatility and it's up to the merchant to figure it out themselves. I sense a lot of complaints in the future. It's not complicated. It will be handled like this; Do you agree to pay Overstock.com $100 You click yes you are agreeing to pay them $100 and your payment method is bitcoin Your $100 will be refunded via bitcoin, whether that equals 1B or 0.1B Bitcoin is not the currency but rather the method of transferring funds I accidentally paid twice last week using some coin (0.067) from Gox. I hit "confirm" twice and then the payment was sent twice. Overstock.com sent me back 0.07 on Monday. It took a couple days and because of the change in price I actually got a little more sent back. It worked out well this time. Of course, if the price had shot up I could have lost some too but that is the way it goes. That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy? |
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What is up with the sell off? It is not like the FBI is auctioning off the coins tomorrow. Plus there is some really good news out there today too with a major sports team taking BTC. Sometimes I just don't get it. Actually, I NEVER get it. Yes, but they announced it. So now the price will reflect post-sale. Also new merchant is meh. They don't accept BTC as a currency. They only accept BTC as business. Yea it's good for BTC in general, but not good for the price. Hmm. I remember after the silk-road shut down announcement in Oct. there was a panic sell but then we proceeded to go on a run to the last ATH after that in November. So maybe this little panic sell off is a good sign? Well, I'm hoping for a huge panic sell off. :/ But looking at the new merchants accepting BTC, it looks like a mess dealing with refunds. Coinbase & Bitpay take no responsibility for BTC volatility and it's up to the merchant to figure it out themselves. I sense a lot of complaints in the future. It's not complicated. It will be handled like this; Do you agree to pay Overstock.com $100 You click yes you are agreeing to pay them $100 and your payment method is bitcoin Your $100 will be refunded via bitcoin, whether that equals 1B or 0.1B Bitcoin is not the currency but rather the method of transferring funds What if that's 10B and you only paid 1B? Do you see the problem now? |
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What is up with the sell off? It is not like the FBI is auctioning off the coins tomorrow. Plus there is some really good news out there today too with a major sports team taking BTC. Sometimes I just don't get it. Actually, I NEVER get it. Yes, but they announced it. So now the price will reflect post-sale. Also new merchant is meh. They don't accept BTC as a currency. They only accept BTC as business. Yea it's good for BTC in general, but not good for the price. Hmm. I remember after the silk-road shut down announcement in Oct. there was a panic sell but then we proceeded to go on a run to the last ATH after that in November. So maybe this little panic sell off is a good sign? Well, I'm hoping for a huge panic sell off. :/ But looking at the new merchants accepting BTC, it looks like a mess dealing with refunds. Coinbase & Bitpay take no responsibility for BTC volatility and it's up to the merchant to figure it out themselves. I sense a lot of complaints in the future. |
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What is up with the sell off? It is not like the FBI is auctioning off the coins tomorrow. Plus there is some really good news out there today too with a major sports team taking BTC. Sometimes I just don't get it. Actually, I NEVER get it. Yes, but they announced it. So now the price will reflect post-sale. Also new merchant is meh. They don't accept BTC as a currency. They only accept BTC as business. Yea it's good for BTC in general, but not good for the price. |
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Confirmed bad news = confirmed triangle breakdown.
too bad there is no bad news.. FBI private auctioning the bitcoin is a good thing.. we don't have to worry about them having a horde in the future well it all depends if they end up selling to an investor or a trader. if we confirm a trader.. lets pre dump fuck that guy lol confirm a hodler, CCMF can you tell what I am Isn't that what we're doing right now? pre dumping? |
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If Mtgox needs fiat, they can exchange BTC for it.
Also if they were in dire need of money, they wouldn't be giving 25% off fees until Jan 20.
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Looks like new merchants may have trouble whether to refund in USD or BTC. Generally tender received is the same as refunded. BTC can't be refunded as USD because of AML policies. A lot can happen to BTC in 30 days. I believe most merchants are refunding BTC based on current USD value.
Can anyone comment specifically on Coinbase, Bitpay and Gocoin refund policies? Differences?
Depending on the merchant refund policy, is it considered fraud to ask for a refund if you get more BTC back?
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Because it's the first entry for Major sports. The rest will follow. I think it's a really big deal.
Here's my reaction. NEW MERCHANT - THEN I SEE COINBASE OR BITPAY -  |
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