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smile. there are 5 points, though :-)
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It just needs to be suggestive. It fails on me - because of the inconsistencies - if the line is drawn once in one way next week in another way - it loses credibility. The question is if I am a common case - maybe not.
Thanks for your feedback. Sometimes the way the line is drawn has minor variations, which I try to avoid. At the same time, the BIG PICTURE is what counts:
I have done a new chart here that uses a thicker trendline and this is quite clear. When doing this sort of analysis, the big trends are broad, and hence, too detailed views may lead to false signals.
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html
http://chart.ly/dc4tqrw
The line is not broken in the grand scheme of things. The more often a market touches, and briefly even breaks them before jumping back above, the stronger they will become. |
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We are at a very important juncture on BTCUSD. Here is an excerpt of the special update in the subscriber section: Prices are right where the longterm uptrend lines run. The view on the longterm chart, shows that we are likely at a buying opportunity of a "bitcoin lifetime". Very likely (80%), this trendline will at least spark a strong countertrend rally from approximately current levels. But as this trendline is important and prices are more in a consolidation than in a "bubble" state, there is a high probability that BTCUSD starts a rally to new all time highs. When looking at the very short term, we have been analysing two extreme scenarios: Either prices rally from here around 4 $. Or, BTCUSD will do one final dip below 3.79 $ before the reversal starts. Only a strong, sustained move below the long term trendline will result into a much deeper correction. Still, we do not see this as the more likely option and remain long term bullish. http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html |
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Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation? Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
($5.0)
($4.5)
i ($4.2)
I II ii III
($4.0) iii ($4.0)
iv
($3.8) ($3.8) v (<$3.8)
a b c IV i-v V
($3.?) (<$3.?)
Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday or  Just sent two alternate wave counts. Let me know if you have not received it. |
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Agree. BTCUSD sits on the major long term uptrend line which should spark a strong rally.
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To the question of "what I'd do now", I would encourage bitcointalk.org users to remove gambling, lottery, pyramid and ponzi scheme ads from their signatures (the latter even if it's a joke). This forum is the premiere forum to discuss all matters bitcoin. As a new user, if I saw people advertising more unsavoury uses for bitcoins I would instantly approach the whole matter with even more caution.
I echo that |
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Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation? Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
[/quote]
[color=blue]It is a possibility, while I have a couple of alternative counts. I will send them to you tomorrow by mail[/color] |
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It is not the bots driving bitcoin prices down, but the fact that overall more people are selling than buying.
Bots have no chance to drive prices down if enough people start buying bitcoin with significant volume and less volume is up for sale.
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It is interesting how important Fibonacchi numbers are.
The current results are at the exact perfect Fib percentages of 38% and 62%...
And yes, sentiment is too bearisg to allow for much more downside, at least mid term
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No, the long term trend is not going down, but the market is dynamic and so it the bitcoin charts analysis, where we look into the charts on daily basis.
The more price data we have the more accurate can we run bitcoin price forecasts
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As promised a while ago, we have just published the first bitcoin charts and bitcoin sentiment study publicly. With this, we introduce the Bitcoin Bull Bear Index http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html.
Thanks to all voters to make this interesting analysis possible.
And, for the next week, the poll is reset.
What is your view?
Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?
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long term, we are still in a bull market. major support has not been breached
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Mining is not leading, but trailing bitcoin prices
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I agree. These times are great to wipe out the weak hands.
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hearing all this, the customer service should definitely be improved fast at MtGox
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Correct, it is a reflection of overall market balance, which will change big time soon (in a matter of hours, days, or maximum of 3 weeks)
You think btcusd is really going back to $10 again? In principle yes, and it will even make an all time high as long as the long term trend remains up. When it happens and how long it takes, this is where the uncertainty lies, not about the if. But, if prices break below the long term uptrend line, then bitcoin has a big issue. |
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Correct, it is a reflection of overall market balance, which will change big time soon (in a matter of hours, days, or maximum of 3 weeks)
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See historic comparison...
"Stable" prices happen all the time in financial markets, and it also happened for bitcoins already many times. See here for an example:
https://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst
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See historic comparison...
Stable prices have nothing to do with manipulation. It happens all the time in financial markets, and it also happened for bitcoins already many times. See here for an example:
https://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst
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