China seems to be quite serious about taking Taiwan back completely. The US has promised protection for Taiwan. The US has made a serious mistake in promising this protection, so here is what the US is doing to fix the mistake. Besides China being a world power, the US does a lot of trade with both, China and Taiwan. Protecting Taiwan from China jeopardizes US trade relations with China, in addition to potentially making China an active enemy. Enter Russia. Under top secret agreements with Russia, the US is supplying her with military equipment and funds to start a war with China (if necessary), to take China's eyes off Taiwan. To make it look good, the US is sending the $billions in military aid to the Ukraine, as well as $billions in funding (that is not being accounted for). All Russia has to do is beat down the Ukraine military, and take the equipment and funds as a reward. Since this is the way the so-called war is being played out - Russia beating the Ukraine - and the media is spouting lies both in favor of Ukraine at times and Russia at other times, all eyes are taken off the fact that Russia is being supplied with $billions in aid, mostly in US military equipment that they capture. Since the US is weakening itself by doing this, I would warn all countries of the world to prepare for war. Why? Because nobody knows when the US or Russia will break their secret agreement about China. It could happen, because countries are breaking agreements all over the place. Russia just might use US war equipment against the US and conquer America.  I don't think Russia has any interest in Taiwan. Russia considers Taiwan part of China and will not interfere in China's internal affairs. Russia's interest in the southeast direction is rather connected with Japan. Now Japan is under US protectorate, but US influence in Asia is noticeably weakening and it would be a great diplomatic achievement for Russia to take Japan under its protection. Because if Russia doesn't, in the foreseeable future, China will invade Japan and kill them all, in retaliation for the genocide that Japan perpetrated on China in the 20th century. I predict big geo-political shifts in this region over the next 5-10 years. |
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Although there are rumors that China is preparing for the worst-case scenario in order to avoid starvation during the nuclear winter and survive 1-2 years without a new crop. But it is not exactly.
Good lord, nuclear winter? What have you guys been reading? How many times already have journalists and the press been fanning the flames of a nuclear war (of course, without any geopolitical backing for such a crisis) over the years? Off the top of my head, I can count at least five (5) proclaimations to global nuclear war that people have been saying would happen since a decade or so ago, and we have yet to realize a single one of them. And this isn't even counting the food shortage. 2008 - Iran, Georga (2) 2014 - Crimea (1) 2017 - Nuclear Deal falls apart with Iran (1) Feb 2022 - Ukraine proper (1) The reality is that no sane person or organization would consent to another world war [not even Russia] and if we were anywhere seriously close to it, you'd be hearing A LOT of appeals from world leaders to "do something to avoid the war" (as in 80 years ago. Even the pope was issuing an appeal like that). Since the Caribbean Crisis, the world has been dominated by the stereotype that there will be no winners in a nuclear war, and therefore nuclear weapons are only a deterrent, like a loaded gun that hangs on the wall but will never fire. Today, however, it is useful to reconsider many old stereotypes for their relevance, because the nuclear club has expanded noticeably and now includes countries like North Korea, for which the truths of half a century ago are not a sufficiently weighty authority. Russia has also changed military doctrine since then, and now Russia can use nuclear weapons not only in response to a direct nuclear strike on its territory, but also in response to any sufficiently serious existential threat against itself. Therefore, I would not completely discount this scenario as having zero probability. |
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6. China is mass purchasing any food (wheat, etc.) that are found in the world and is also pre-purchasing future production (as much as anybody would sell them) at high prices.
Well, smart move from them. Now China becomes the world's biggest food exporter after the end of the invasion. China has been actively buying up long-term storage products on the world market for a couple of years now and has accumulated significant stocks. Although there are rumors that China is preparing for the worst-case scenario in order to avoid starvation during the nuclear winter and survive 1-2 years without a new crop. But it is not exactly. |
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The import of cash dollars and euros into Russia was banned by Western sanctions, it seems, as early as the beginning of March. But even if you buy cash dollars and euros, the question is why?
Er, why? Even before I went to Europe, dollars and euros and even pound sterling, are more readily accepted in my corner of the world. I have visited several non-EU, former USSR members in the past few years... and the only "Russian" thing they'll accept there is the language and the script. I did see an app accepting ruble in Kazakhstan though but that was for the Russians to use their card to pay. Russians there changed rubles at moneychangers. These places are way cheaper than Europe, including Ukraine. First time I've heard Turkey accepting rubles... you're talking merchants and shop owners or? Any of these guys have an online shop accepting ruble? Now there is a very large surge of Russophobia in Europe, and the European Union may not expect Russian tourists this season. And this is the main purpose for buying cash euros, now it is gone. For the dollar, the forecast is more favorable, for historical reasons, Russians love cash dollars. However, keeping savings in cash dollars is now stupid because of high inflation, and Russians now have nowhere to spend them. |
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"They can take care of themselves." Well, let's assume. Then the question is - why haven't they taken care of it for 20 years?  Some of the simplest statistics for 20 years: Changes since 2000 in Russia -Schools Was: 68 100 Now: 40 800 - Hospitals Was: 10 700 Now: 5 100 -Emergency housing Before: 9.5 million sq. m Now: 25.5 million sq. m - Officials Before: 1,161,500 Now: 2 327 623 -Billionaires (synonymous with "Putin's friend") Was: 0 Now: 83 PS and most importantly - in addition to resources, the demand for which may quite realistically decrease, Russia has nothing more. Or can you name something created in Russia that the world cannot do without? Well, at least 1 example? Developed countries are developing new technologies, backward ones are trading in what they can dig ... with the help of Western technologies ) For the past eight years, Russia has been intensively preparing for the current operation to demilitarize Ukraine, spending up to a third of its consolidated budget on rearmament of the army. What is really strange for me is why Europe has not reduced, but even increased its energy dependence on Russia during this time? |
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Russians still have an option to leave Ukraine and not die.
I think the sanctions will stay in place until Russia remains an imperialist, terrorist state.
As for demilitarizing the West, well, good luck with that.
The West has a production capacity couple of orders of magnitude larger than Russia (without sanctions).
As for Europe, it seems to be doing a pretty good job of demilitarizing itself. It is very difficult to realize your industrial potential and carry out a rearmament cycle by floating old military trash to Ukraine, when you yourself are putting yourself on a very strict diet of energy and raw materials through sanctions. Turkey has the largest and strongest army in Europe and it is not included in the list of unfriendly countries of Russia. Then perhaps comes the army of Ukraine, which, in addition, is very highly motivated, and it is apparently not able to resist Russia. What can the rest of Europe oppose against the Russian army, one or two consolidated divisions of combat pederasts?  |
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Lol what sort of propaganda have you been reading lately that’s makes you say such foolish things? It’s pretty clear you hold some grudge against the United States and that’s fine but you offer no proof at all to back your claims not to mention everything you’re saying is false. The US by sheer land size, land fertility, and economy are more than enough to keep it strong and more than relevant for many many years to come. You also seem to forget much of the US citizens have come from Europe, and it’s values match those far greater than those of the east. This pact between Asia and Europe is just some made up fairy tale by you.
Please explain what you mean, what is wrong with the values of the East? |
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This is not true, the Central Bank of Russia does not prohibit the sale or purchase of dollars and euros, currently there are no such restrictions in Russia. Restrictions on the import of cash currency exist on the part of the United States and the European Union.
What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.
"Moscow. May 19. INTERFAX.RU - From May 20, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed banks to sell any cash foreign currency to citizens without restrictions, except for US dollars and euros, the regulator said. Restrictions on the sale of cash dollars and euros remain." Tell me - does the Central Bank give permission to banks in Russia or YOU? It seems to me that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to denigrate and frame you! Please tell him his place, I'm on your side! The nature of these restrictions on cash dollars and euros is EU and US sanctions on the import of cash into Russia, and not the desire of the Central Bank to somehow restrict Russian citizens from buying cash dollars and euros. Dear forum member - either your account was hacked or you are at least 2 people 2 mutually exclusive answers from one person - gives reason to draw such conclusions Did you write it or who? This is not true, the Central Bank of Russia does not prohibit the sale or purchase of dollars and euros, currently there are no such restrictions in Russia. Restrictions on the import of cash currency exist on the part of the United States and the European Union.
What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.
So, from May 20, the Central Bank of Russia removed all restrictions on the purchase by citizens of foreign currency in cash, except for dollars and euros. For dollars and euros, there are restrictions related to US and EU sanctions on the import of cash into Russia - you can buy cash dollars and euros that were deposited at bank cash desks after April 9, 2022. I hope now I have clarified the situation and eliminated the contradictions that existed in your consciousness, but not in reality. |
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US pussyfooting in Ukraine is pushing Russia into making its move, now. What is the move? Destruction of NATO, and the permanent weakening of the US and Western Europe.
If you don't like this, get Biden and the Dems (Pelosi) out of office as quickly as you can. You just might save a little of America.
I think that Russia has serious and justified claims to the USA, Great Britain, Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland - this is a shortlist for demilitarization. The rest of the countries on the Russian list of unfriendly states (it now has 48 positions) should, in theory, be interested in leaving this list as soon as possible by completely lifting all sanctions against Russia. |
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If they don't belong to the state, why is the state the one complaining? Shouldn't it be some company stating that it lost so many tons of grain?
I didn't think this could get any more absurd, but thank you for proving me wrong. Yeah, why aren't farmers complaining, in a territory occupied by a totalitarian regime known to disappear people, when said regime is taking their property. Why didn't the people in Bucha complain on Russian state TV about getting killed? But yes, "some company" did complain: Ukraine's largest steelmaker Metinvest on Friday said it was concerned that Russia may use several ships stranded in Mariupol to "steal and smuggle metallurgical products" belonging to the group. It accused Russia of piracy.
Asked on Saturday whether the metal due to be shipped out belonged to Metinvest, a company spokesman said: "We said yesterday that our metal is in the port of Mariupol, yes."
Please move the goalposts by no less than 20 meters next time. I haven't looked into this situation in detail, but this may be Russia's symmetrical response to the recent seizure of its assets in Ukraine worth more than a billion dollars. Stop whining, it works both ways. I don't know how much of an idiot you have to be to take money from the Russians and think you can get away with it. "Russian has always come for their money". (c) Otto von Bismarck |
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Let's see how Russia will be able to sell about 3 million barrels that were going to Europe and its allies.
Through the Druzhba pipeline? Haven't you realized yet that the EU oil embargo is pure farce and bluff. Hungary did not join the embargo, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Croatia did, but with a number of reservations and delays. A large refinery in East Germany that produces aviation fuel for the whole of Europe is designed for heavy Russian oil, and it is easier to build a new plant than to reconfigure an old one. Europe has painted itself into a corner with populist statements by incompetent politicians, and now their voters will have to pay the price. Russia does not need to sell three million barrels to Europe when Europe is driving up oil prices through its actions. It is enough to sell two million and get the same money or even more. |
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Asia (India and China) does not really need Russian oil (and natural gas) ...
They will buy it if the prices are attractive for buying, but in fact they do not really need Russian oil. This is due to the availability of alternative sources of energy resources and the structure of the economies of these countries, as well as to a warmer climate.
The main consumers of Russian gas and oil are European countries. Therefore, the conflict with European countries is a very stupid and insane action. Currently, Russia receives a lot of money from the sale of oil and gas (due to rising world energy prices).
However, in such a business, the main thing is to maximize the supply of goods. The most important thing here is the struggle for the volume of the market.
This is what affects Russia's income in the long run.
You build all your assumptions on an initially false premise, so you draw the wrong conclusions. |
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Oh, yeah, once you recover from this clusterfuck, allocate 20% of your GDP to the military, join NATO, and obtain nuclear weapons.
Ukraine had excellent starting conditions after the collapse of the USSR, the best of all the union republics. Favorable geographical location, fertile land, developed industry, strong army and navy, resorts, sanatoriums, nuclear energy, no debts. And in just 30 years, you screwed up everything, ended up in complete shit, in a state of bankruptcy. And of course, anyone is to blame for this, but not Ukraine itself. Amazing infantilism. ps Biden says Ukraine might have to give Russia land in ‘negotiated settlement’ |
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Like Elon talked about we need just a corner of Utah levels of space to provide electricity to ALL of USA, and yet we are not doing it, why? Or we do not need a whole field for farming, we could do hydroponics and use much smaller land and produce much more product and even more times as well since we decide on the weather there so instead of 2 times a year, you get 4. Why not do that? Because people just don't, they don't and that is the only reason ever.
Agriculture has already made a huge technological leap in recent decades, although this is not advertised too much for the layman. There is a lot of progress in ultra-bright LEDs and agricultural robotics, but two factors are key - the massive transition to high-yielding hybrid seeds and the massive use of inorganic fertilizers. The disadvantage of hybrid varieties is that they are not stable and seeds have to be bought every year in seed banks. The disadvantage of chemical fertilizers is that now they are very expensive due to expensive gas and sanctions restrictions on Russia and Belarus. The transition to organic fertilizers is possible, but the yield will decrease markedly. The transition to resistant varieties that do not degenerate in the next generation is also possible, but the yield will again decrease markedly. Markedly - means at times, and this is a problem on the scale of humanity. |
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Information as of May 16, but no fundamental changes have occurred over the past 2 weeks
With the exception of the mass surrender of Azov fighters in Mariupol lol. After that, the Armed Forces of Ukraine significantly lost morale and combat effectiveness in the Donbas, and the defense there actually crumbled. A military analyst of you is so-so. |
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Politically biased? Let's tell an educational program So, what is this "political engagement"? This is how it is interpreted in Russian-language sources: POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT - an expression used to emphasize the political coloring of someone's position or sympathies. For example, evaluating a speech as politically engaged means that the speaker pursued a certain political line, or expressed his sympathy for certain ideas, or generally fulfilled someone's social order, etc. And now tell me - where is the political bias in my question? Did I express any sympathy? emphasized the poly-secret coloration? Not ! I just cited a few facts that, with a non-zero probability, can be in many countries with different political structures. But vyf perfectly understood in which country these events are in full set and constantly occur In general, there is no need for a better answer, thank you! Anyone who reads your messages will easily notice that you are strongly politically biased in favor of Ukraine. So much so that there is a possibility that you are an employee of the center of information and psychological operations. I'm not blaming you for this, just stating a fact. And about normal, high-quality products - what about Russia, which has "the largest resources in the world", a problem with high-quality products? Or do they not bring normal products to your region? Since 2014, Russia has spent a lot of effort to strengthen its food security and has achieved notable results in this matter. But they never learned how to make good cheese, cheese from Belarus is tastier. |
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This is not true, the Central Bank of Russia does not prohibit the sale or purchase of dollars and euros, currently there are no such restrictions in Russia. Restrictions on the import of cash currency exist on the part of the United States and the European Union.
What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.
"Moscow. May 19. INTERFAX.RU - From May 20, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed banks to sell any cash foreign currency to citizens without restrictions, except for US dollars and euros, the regulator said. Restrictions on the sale of cash dollars and euros remain." Tell me - does the Central Bank give permission to banks in Russia or YOU? It seems to me that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to denigrate and frame you! Please tell him his place, I'm on your side! The nature of these restrictions on cash dollars and euros is EU and US sanctions on the import of cash into Russia, and not the desire of the Central Bank to somehow restrict Russian citizens from buying cash dollars and euros. |
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1. Tell me - are you all right with arithmetic? I don’t want to offend you .. but 2/3 of 100% of the market is about 67%. Those. In your opinion, Russia, which supplied 30% of neon to the world market, is this equal to 67%? Are you seriously ? But I will support you in your remark - let's see how the market will be rebuilt in connection with another fact proving the unpredictability of Russia as a supplier. Ukraine stopped supplying neon to the market at the very beginning of the special operation. The share of Ukraine was about 40% and then became zero. Russia's share was about 30% and has now also dropped sharply due to the export ban. As a result, just about two-thirds of the total fell out, everything is in order with arithmetic. You may also be interested to know that Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian. For the production of microelectronics, high-purity neon is needed. |
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For a hundred days of the operation, the Russian army clearly showed the West its combat capability. The West has focused too much on counter-terrorist operations in recent decades and has forgotten how to fight on a full scale. Russia has Poseidons and Sarmatians, Zircons and Daggers on combat duty - and the West has no methods how to counteract them. I do not see any real prospects in the feasibility of your plans.
I maintain my suspicion that Russia has little or no interest in any area but the East and Southern seaboard. As they take control of real estate in these areas of interest they are just integrated into the Russian federation with massive support of the locals. As I've said before, the ZioNazi presence for 8 years was a big advantage to Russia over and above simple cultural and language demographics. The Russian speaking Ukrainians I knew had zero use for Russia so either most of the people in that category already left, or changed their minds after the neocon color revolution and installation of neo-nazi terrorists from 2014 till early 2022. I mean there are waiting lines around the block for people to get their Russian passports. The establishment by Russia of control over the Donbas and the South of Ukraine is now only a matter of time. Arms deliveries by the West already look more like symbolic gestures than real help. Numerous replacements from the defense are simply not ready to fight, and the most combat-ready parts of Ukraine have already been ground in a meat grinder in the Donbas. I do not think that Russia will stop there, I think Russia will solve the issue with Ukraine systematically and comprehensively. |
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^^^^ Gazprom has cut supplies only to Orsted (Danmark). They haven't cut any of their supplies to Germany or Netherlands. And in any case the exports to Danmark was minimal, as it is a very small country. Shell's contract to supply Russian gas to Germany stands cancelled, but it represents a small share of overall exports to that country. And as per the latest figures from Gazprom, they exported 61 billion cubic meters of gas to countries outside the former Soviet Union for the first five months of this year. This represents a decline of 27.6%, but due to the increased prices Gazprom has earned 10x more revenues when compared to the same period last year.
I was reading in news that Gazprom has cut off gas supply to Netherlands and Germany. Moreover supply to shell will also be suspended as shell is refusing to pay in Russian national currecny. This conflict is now more about who will buy Russian oil and gas, little attention is paid to end this conflict. From my point of view, the more interesting news for today, although little noticed, is the restriction on the export of inert gases (argon, neon, etc.) from Russia. They seem to be used in the production of microelectronics or something. This is a non-obvious and rather strong lever of Russia's influence on the world economy. About inert gases. An alternative could be supplies from Ukraine Only one of the companies producing such gases can put on the market: Neon - 70,000 m3, Xenon - 480 m3, Krypton - 6000 m3, Argon - 12,000 tons . I will clarify - Ukraine provides about half of the world's demand for neon For other gases, Russia supplies no more than 30% to the market. I do not think that this will cause global problems. Temporary - I agree. But Russia will always lose this market as well. Understand that imposing restrictions from the normal world in relation to terrorists is just a search for replacement. And the restrictions on the part of terrorists on the sale of their resources, which were in demand by the world, is a loss of the market. Like it or not, it's a fact Let's see what the reaction of the market will be to the loss of two-thirds of the total volume of neon at once. More interesting news: FT: UK to ban insurance for ships carrying Russian oil The UK and the EU have agreed to a ban on insuring ships carrying Russian oil. It is reported by the Financial Times. Thus, Russia will be deprived of access to the vital insurance market of Lloyd's of London. This means that Moscow's ability to export crude oil will be severely limited, and Russian suppliers will have to look for an alternative to British insurance in other, smaller markets. The ban on insurance of oil ships has become part of the sixth package of EU sanctions, writes the Financial Times. As the newspaper notes, such a decision will also increase pressure on global oil markets. Do you know what that means? I think this means that Europe is trying to fence itself off from Russia with an iron curtain, although this directly threatens its own energy security. The lease of a tanker for the transportation of liquefied gas has already increased by a third from 80 to 120 thousand dollars per day with a contract for a year. |
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