the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
I doubt that. There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now. By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit. By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through. |
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this isn't the first "crash" we've seen, and it won't be the last. what matters is how you prepare for the next one.
Exactly. I've been preparing for single digits for a long time. |
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First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.
However there is a nasty inverse pennant formation brewing if you look at a one or two month closing chart with 30 minute or 1 hour interval. I'm on mobile and can't link to it, but please punch that in and see for yourself.
I'm scrounging up as much money to buy on the way down. Target price may be as low as $40 and might hover around there for as much time as the price had hovered around $2-$10 after the $30 peak in summer 2011 until october 2012.
$40 is a pretty optimistic low target. There's just no good reason the exchange rate couldn't fall back into the single digits again. I don't think people have fully appreciated how devastating an event today will be for a really large number of people, and as they leave, they're going to take a lot of money out with them and we'll see the opposite of what we've seen over the past few months. Not only will money completely leave the system, bids will disappear as people who still want to own bitcoins hope to buy at lower and lower prices. It really can go all the way down. |
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Boo hoo. Worst case on all of the above is that we just go back to regular old vanilla EXPONENTIAL GROWTH with market cap doubling every five weeks.
There are much worse and far more likely scenarios than that. |
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Was able to snap this pic of bitcoin today.  |
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i'd like to see any bank, ANY, match the same interest rate that Bitcoin gives me every month. even after this "crash" i'm still far ahead of where i'd be if all my fiat were in banks.
What about everyone who bought above $170? |
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Until those "suckers" turn into wise people that learn how to play "our game"  Seriously these post's make me laugh. Is this your first high risk investment? if so it explains everything. Whether it's his first, or it's millionth high risk trade is irrelevant. What's relevant is that BTC - while a solid alternative payment mechanism - simply has too many 'confidence' issues to sustain the current 'market cap'. 1) low merchant adoption. Anyone who works in transactional systems will tell you major retailers lag too much behind tech to turn around and start accepting btc at the rate required to sustain the valuation. Remember NFC, paying for stuff with your phone, etc? That stuff has been out for a decade. Did you use your phone to buy that meal you ate this PM? No, and there's a very good reason for that. 2) exchanges are weak technologically. MTGox in particular has made no effort in communicating through out of band channels such as twitter. They aren't trying to panic people either - they just don't 'get' the web scale game. They will, however, but in time. Again, not fast enough to sustain the current valuation. 3) too much of the new money is people looking to make a quick buck, who by their own admission do not understand the tech. Kaiser, the poster boy for bitcoin hype (and don't give me wrong I usually like him), posted today on twitter '#keepmining. As if coins were produced at a rate variable on how many people mine. They just don't get it.Sprinkle media frenzy on top and you'll understand why people have little confidence in the valuation (but at the same time, like me, could very much still be in love with the platform itself). I also don't doubt that you have far more experience trading than people like me have. What you lost though is perspective. When you look at today's 'dip', you think nothing of it. A down exchange mildly irritates you. Why? Because you are a seasoned vet who knows how to hold, and accept losses are part of the 'game'. What you don't realize is that 99% of the newbs in that Mtgox queue have been terrified today. They won't be back, and they won't bring their mates anymore. There could be 4 or 5 of these new batches. But over time, high valuation won't be sustainable anymore. +1 |
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Yesterday - chart is parabolic = "Bitcoin isn't a bubble, it's a snowball!"
Today - price gets cut in half = "See, it's not a bubble"
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I held and did absolutely nothing because the fundamentals and potential have not changed in my eyes.
pretty stupid thing to do imho Go troll somewhere else. On a side note, all time high in dollars by a wide margin, a big deal IMO.  LOL  There are all those bitcoins. Seems like everyone forgot about them. |
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I am quite surprised, I must say. I was betting the panic would drive us much lower. Now of course there will be some recovery -bull trap or not, time will tell. If it starts growing again, we will see 1000$ soon -and maybe stay there, after some bumps.
What's holding me back is the example of history: after the first bubble, there was a long, although bumpy, decline. But maybe the community is stronger now, and it will be different?
However, I am not so sure about the idea "the community", etc. Of course all this money didn't come all of a sudden from experienced bitcoiners, it's new people bringing their money in. Will they stay after having been burnt, or will too many give up?
Enough people are going to give up to pull the price down for a long time. Why do I think that? Because I think a lot (probably most) of the people who pushed the price of over the past few months were simply playing a get rich quick game and not joining a movement to create a new financial infrastructure. Those people are not going to stick around on the hope that their "temporary" losses will subsidize the persistence of the protocol. They're going to limp away, dragging as much money as they can back out of the system to minimize their losses. Today isn't some temporary little glitch. Today is the beginning of another long depressing period in the history of bitcoin. There's really no question about whether we're going down from here -- we are. The question is really whether so many people were burned, so spectacularly, and so publicly in the news, that the world can decide with a high enough level of confidence that this is a neat, but ultimately practically impossible financial structure for even a moderate sized economy. |
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When we return to new highs in a day or so...that will be it. What will you have to throw at Bitcoin then?
Another massive bubble that fucks X amount of people over? You can only fuck over so many people before you don't get anymore suckers to play your game. This. A lot of people were just badly burned. It's not going to completely deflate overnight, but over the coming months, we'll see loads of people move on. Hopefully the infrastructure will be ready to handle mainstream loads in a few years. I'm optimistic bitcoin will get another chance in 4 years or so, but if this happens again 4 years from now, that'll be it. |
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Yep. On the bright side, developers just got another several years to try to strengthen this project without hoards of armature speculators hoping to get rich quick, while at the same time overburdening an infrastructure clearly not ready for prime time. It'll be another few months, and a long slow slide down, as the system flushes the wounded and dead, and then after that bitcoin will be off the radar again for good long time.
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I remember when MtGox seemed to get hit almost weekly with crazy DOS attacks. Fun times.
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It's unfortunate that so many people will have been burned by this, but, absolutely, the new top is in and I'm guessing that it'll be years, possibly not till after the next block reward halving, before we see these price levels again. Again, sorry to everyone who got and is getting burned here, but the writing was on the wall, and eventually this was going to collapse.
On the bright side, developers now have another several years to work on the infrastructure while the world laughs at bitcoin again.
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 Almost $7m and counting has taken a hike. Asks are on the rise even as record numbers of bitcoins are being sold. Little doubt about it, this is the big reversal. Single digits is not out of the question once we've reached the bottom of the coming long slow slide. As I've said elsewhere, the popping of this bubble is going to toss a giant wet blanket on bitcoin for years to come. |
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I doubt this is the end of bitcoin, but this is likely to turn in a catastrophic market event, similar to, but probably worse than, 2011. Worse, because this will end up turning off significantly more people than the 2011 crash, and as a result this crash and the subsequent long slow slide will take much, much longer to recover from.
The bright side is that it will give developers more time (we're talking at least a couple years, I think) to strengthen the protocol and infrastructure. Bitcoin isn't ready for double digit figures, let alone triple digits.
In any event, we've finally seen the top of the bubble, and I think we're unlikely to see prices at that level again anytime before the next block reward halving. It's unfortunate things got so out of control, but there's just not much anyone can do about it.
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Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.
You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC... If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point... A flood of EAs cashing out will probably spark a massive correction that could last years and severely damage bitcoins reputation for even longer. I think this behavior will prevent exchange rates from being higher than they are now-ish for a very, very long time. $1000 is completely out of the question at this point. |
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Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.
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@maxkeiser: "I have a personal goal of getting hedgies involved to drive BTC to $1,000. | For non-US res. Exante.eu can hook you up with BTC ($100K min.)"
This is going to ruin bitcoin.
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