I think it will keep going up, but it shot up so fast I think a lot of people just on board the sell bandwagon. Rather then panic buying, people started selling to take advantage of the sudden spike. Hopefully it shall continue its climb, and/or have a less sudden spike like rally.
I attack any spike with sells simply because the spikes do not last. I'm sure others do the same. If you know the price isn't going to hold but you can make a tidy profit, you take what you can. |
|
|
|
If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.
where is the recovery in the nasdaq? we have just seen a dead cat bounce before we see low triple digits in the next years.
But there is no correlation with bitcoin which is still in an uptrend. The nasdaq, however, is not in an uptrend any more.
http://imghaven.com/images/23856/ndx20110930.png
|
|
|
|
If anything, today's events should be a wake up call to the BTC community. Time for us to grow up.
By that, I mean things like the major charting site (bitcoin charts) having such vague error message. Similarly, the major exchange (Mt. Gox) having relatively weak password encryption strength.
If bitcoins are to move beyond the legitimacy of say, WoW Gold, I think things like this need to change. Otherwise, bitcoins will remain little more than a novelty ... and like the Rubik's cube ... eventually fade into history. Personally, I'd like to NOT see that happen.
I'm by no means a conformist or rule-follower. But you gotta put on your best suit and do your homework if you're going to be taken seriously at a job interview. That's where bitcoins are now, imho, at the interview stage.
Good luck to us all.
D
You are so right. Unfortunately there are so many "coach = bitcoin forum potatoes", sitting in front of the PC and complaining about everything. What they (and all of us) should rather do it actively participating to bring the bitcoin economy forward. |
|
|
|
It is not a rally we need, but a true market reversal to prove that new money is really coming into the market.
That will not start to be confirmed until the September 20 peak can be topped.
Agree. |
|
|
|
|
I know what you are trying to say. But rally does not mean that the upside is bigger than market reversal.
You can have a rally in a 1min chart and it only moves 0.2% and still can be called rally.
|
|
|
|
|
Correct.
And the strength of an analyst come through to see that the market is doing something differently and then adapt the forecast as we did thereafter on Aug 26:
"The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation.
A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable."
And exactly this happened.
|
|
|
|
China is going tone huge. Once China catches on then S. Korea and other Asian countries will follow.
Do you have any data how many Chinese are already buying or using bitcoins? Is there any measure available for awareness of bitcoins in China? |
|
|
|
|
it does not matter if you call it reversal or rally. Both just say that prices are rising
|
|
|
|
|
I agree with you 100%. I do not see the doom scenario. BTCUSD has not even seriously tested the long term trend. As long as the trend is not broken, the 1.5 year rally remains the active scenario.
|
|
|
|
So the price going to lower levels wouldn't really crush Bitcoin's very-long-term prospects, it would simply take longer to really recover, the lower we go. So far we've only declined to levels before the bubble. That's just a few months. If we decline to the levels of early 2011, it'll be a longer road back up.
I agree and disagree with you at the same time. A break of the longterm trend could lead to a total "crash" of bitcoin interest and wipe it out from the landscape (apart from a few thousand of hardcore bitcoin-lovers.
Even if I do not like it - in the current world-, price development plays a dominant role, and if we enter a vicious cycle with bitcoins, it may never come up again. |
|
|
|
|
You are right, it is the combination of numerous chart tools and indicators. (Un)fortunately it is not automated and works with only one tool. And even worse, the market follows certain "tools" for a couple of months or even years and then not any more. The key is to accept when this is the case and not automatically follow things.
|
|
|
|
Thanks for your feedback. Feedback is always a gift.
See attached the two most extreme trendlines
1) based on closing prices (pink)
2) based on intraday prices (red)
Both have not been broken clearly.
|
|
|
|
This is a good point. There are always slight variations on how to draw the lines, but the key point is that however you draw it, there has not been a substantial violation of the major uptrend.
Because if the major trend is broken, you see a rapid, crash-type decline with increasing volume. we clearly have not seen that and this is why the longterm uptrend has held.
|
|
|
|
|
The charts and trendlines work equally well for bitcoins as for other financial markets. No issue with the trading volume.
|
|
|
|
|
this looks very interesting
|
|
|
|
|
You are right, the only leading indicator for the overall bitcoin project are bitcoin prices , i.e. BTCUSD
|
|
|
|
|
Don't assume weekly or monthly calendar patterns persist. Very often you find 2-3 times fulfilling your prophecy and then they do not work any more.
I still remember the talks about the dead-sure weekend drop and then it did not happen at all any more.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
