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interesting idea: a redbull market. I have one in the fridge and will open it now as I write this :-)
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Another thing about bitcoin: using references like "stock x" to describe bitcoin trading is a false premise. Bitcoin is more like "commodity x" but even that isn't the best analogy. Bitcoin is something new so while it may have trading patterns similar to stocks, currencies, and commodities, it is none of those. Bitcoin is more like a religion. It is like Scientology and Jediism, it will only grow over time as more and more crazy people begin to believe in it.
It does not matter if bitcoin is compared to stocks or forex or commodities. fact is that the bitcoin prices and bitcoin charts behave just like those. Charting analysis works perfectly well for bitcoins, no matter what they are supposed to be.
And, like many have written in this section, it really depends if the log charts or the normal charts dominate. Our view is that the log charts are more appropriate and on log charts, bitcoins is no cat, no dead cat, but a big bull who is taking his afternoon nap before steaming forward again. |
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Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).
Just out of interest, your profile pic depicts the $30 bitcoin bubble earlier this year. Any chance of upgrading it to show the subsequent price activity?  |
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Some people fare well not using charts, and some fare well using charts. Both options are very valid.
We have been using charts successfully for bitcoin since September 2010, just like any other financial market (for more than a decade).
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If you can't explain why you decided to draw a line on a chart (ie the economic theory that supports it) you probably shouldn't post it, just saying.
Technical analysis is a way of analyzing trading action, which can and often does take on a life of its own that is largely independent of fundamentals (i.e. economic theory). To demand that a line on a chart be justified by economic theory or any other kind of fundamental analysis is to misunderstand the nature of the analysis being used. I know it seems like complete voodoo hocus pocus BS, but technical analysis really is a great tool for making trading decisions. But like any tool, you have to understand how to use it. I don't have good charts to look at, but so far it doesn't look to me like this trend line break is materializing, so I don't think there is yet any technical reason to think we are in for a sustained rally. But genuine trend line breaks are very solid technical patterns, and can, in the right hands, be used to great effect for trading - I've seen this particular pattern unfold for stocks hundreds of times. +1 Well said and so true. |
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our technical analysis has also predicted that btcusd even broke 5$.
After the low at just above 4$, we may now see base building before potentially rally again.
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I think you will agree its hard to eat that one. I do agree. Maybe they're covering up mistakes. Or maybe they've learned from earlier mistakes and are well prepared for compromised accounts and handling their repercussions. Mt. Gox has had time and incentive to come up with a solution neither of us has yet contemplated. I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. S3052, I thought you were bitcoinwatch. No. I am just leading the technical analysis blog on bitcoinwatch. All other things on bitcoinwatch are led by the bitcoinwatch owner. |
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I have been criticizing MtGox quite a couple of times, but I disagree with chodpaba.
MtGox IS the leading exchange. As they account for more than 80% of the BTC volume, they are by default the ones suffering from almost all attacks.
Despite that, they have been moving into the right direction in the last weeks. It is still not perfect yet, but unless someone comes up with a competitive alternative, there are the best, and they will get better every day.
They are also taking up the huge challenge to fight for getting bank access in France, which noone dared before.
This small data mess from yesterday will not change anything when it comes to overall BTCUSD forecasts.
(That said, I have asked separately to get yesterday's data straight, just to make sure we don't leave this stone "un-turned").
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 Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?
If not, then can you please clean up the data?
thank you |
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based on the sentiment polls, only 40% of forum members see the bitcoin price down.
beginning of august it was more than 60%.
the current sentiment is not bearish enough to believe in a sustainable low at currentvalues.
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I am just trying to offer technical analysis to help people making informed bitcoin trading decisions .
typically , this forum is biased with UP UP UP talks (see Bruce ...)
and it is important to also show some balanced views.
some people could protect their savings if they sold before.
Personally, I do not have any interest in falling bitcoin prices, I would prefer rising bitcoin prices. But it is important to leave emotions aside when investing / trading.
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a break below 5.74$ will very likely open the floodgates for a crash-type selloff
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EDIT: To "aq":
You are right with your models, I would reframe it: Maximize global purchasing power would be the goal.
In any case, we will wait for a legal decision on bitcoin before taking any further action beyond the technical analysis.
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The new chart looks great, but I still think that your model is too rigid and will does not account for the emotional, herding forces that are behind the market. Chart patterns and ElliottWaves do a better job, in my humble p.o.v. Your model might work in 80% of the time when there is almost no movement in prices, but then it is completely wrong when prices move in either direction, smashing through your support / resistance levels, and then make people fall out of the bed when they see that :-)
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Actually I could be interested in such a service, albeit from someone with an excellent reputation and real name/address.
żBruce then maybe? LOL maybe S3032?
But we would only look into this once we would be registered as an official hedge fund, and we would provide full disclosure and transparency. |
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Thanks for digging it up again, for me this was a champagne high tea :-) but the USDCHF party is not yet over.
Parity is possible in the next weeks and months.
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It would be great if someone could help me with this data, ideally starting from August 2010 to date on MtGox.
I searched, but could not find a clear mention on how to do that.
thanks bitcoiners in anticipation
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at this pt i feel that i have said all i can about this topic. it is useless for me to continue this debate as so many of us here are set in such emotional positions that won't change no matter what is said. the debate has gotten to the point where we are just recycling the same arguments over and over again and they have become heated enough where i risk becoming too hardened even to my own position to the point of being non-objective.
being a lone voice out in the wilderness is a difficult position to take. this is the last thing i wanted to have happen.
so i am going to respectfully bow out here. i would like to thank everyone especially miscreanity for the spirited debate and very useful information he has provided. i wish you all the best of luck.
thank you.
Also from my side a big thanks!
You shed light onto the current situation and I also agree to your outlook. |
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Panic sell going on!
this is no panic selling (yet), but there is a likelihood that we will see the panic soon |
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