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1721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2021, 06:55:03 PM
Binance getting regulated hard.

https://twitter.com/binance/status/1421033049098174468?s=21

No more futures/derivatives trading in several Euro countries.

This is bullish for price stability whether it is "right" or not...
1722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2021, 06:39:52 PM
I think that in spite of the sideways of these days, today is a key day: "Bitcoin bulls control Friday's $1.7B monthly options expiry"

Let's hope that due to this we break through resistance above $41K, and we'll get to $50K pretty soon.


Good stuff... yes, we are holding up rather well as far as these things go.  There might just be some gas in the tank!

@McDude: ready the weekend pump truck!
1723  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: July 27, 2021, 07:47:43 PM

Price action is looking interesting.  I think we are still seeing an uptick of activity/volume, and the price is biased towards rising, for sure.  The bart caused by rumor/fakenews was way more exiting going up and resisted the downside.

I still also feel optimistic about this earning season.  Maybe this is not the one... but even if we just see 2 big players announce they are even dipping their toe in some BTC reserves that would be significant.  I think 2 is a good number... we had that first crazy dude dancing as Microstrategy and then Tesla got up, and second guessed, and got up again...

It would be nice for 2 or 3 or 5 others run up now, and maybe Elon will not keep pulling his pants down. And even if he keeps doing it people will be less interested.

1724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 27, 2021, 12:36:37 AM
Unpopular opinion:

1. Large well known companies buying and holding large amounts of bitcoin is bullish news. (because it eventually raises the price by taking btc off the market)

2. Large well known companies announcing they will accept bitcoin for goods/services is... well, not really bullish. (because it doesn't actually do that)

Some would say "Well #2 adds to bitcoin's legitimacy in the public's eye." Nations are now making it a legal currency. Tesla bought $1B worth. JP Morgan trades it and says clients can buy it. We have already achieved "legitimacy".

Wake me up when Bezos, Gates, Dimon, and Buffett say they bought several billion worth of bitcoin. Then I might actually get excited.

Until then...zzzzzz.

I agree.  Bitcoin will not be a transactional currency until, and unless the LN network matures and is deployed by vendors.

People are not incentivized to SPEND bitcoin.  There are people who reject the whole "digital gold" NGU thing, and I think some of their logic actually makes some pretty good sense.  I just think they are wrong that this is not a healthy stage for Bitcoin.  It is both healthy and needed.  I strongly believe Bitcoins "transactional" value is going to lag until we see the middle of the S curve insofar as being a reserve asset is concerned.  Until then gresham's law reigns supreme.

After we pass the adoption bellcurve for store of value we will begin to see transactional bitcoin growing.

But a parallel exception to this rule are developing countries.  In a place like El Salvador, they may skip forward to bitcoin as money because they NEED it.  I think these paths can exist in parallel.  And as nations like ES show prosperity because of the inflow of good money other nations with nothing to lose will follow.

In the meantime the smart institutional money will do whatever they can to slow adoption as they accumulate and shift their business strategy.  more and more of them realize it is a land race, and they are almost certainly beginning to take stakes in bitcoin as a reserve asset.  They are INCENTIVIZED to delay the stampede of retail.  Yet they cannot stop it, because they have not chosen to spend the time they HAD to wall off bitcoin from the public, and could not on a global front even if they chose to.  So they are too late.  Also I will be surprised if we make it through earnings season without a handful of companies at least sending up test flares if not outright reporting they will, or have already taken a position.

The central banks are also too late.  These evil fuckers, however, will most likely NOT just capitulate.  It's going to be fun to watch them burn down.  I look forward to seeing the WEF, IMF, and all the other CB stooges on the pyre of history.  I hope the conflict does not get too hot.
1725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 08:47:11 PM
Seriously though... this is a dump for ants, for sure.  I am not capitulating my hopium mask here.



1726  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 08:40:32 PM
This is a BEAUTY of a bullflag.  It's already up so much, but I do not seeing it stay here for much longer.  



I say 70% chance breaks up which is possibly a run to ~44k (!!)
30% chance we Bart back down ~35.

Those numbers are conservative... I am adjusting for my bias since internally I am way better than 2:1 for.

OK, sadly there's the possible bart-down.  Although it could also be a head fake.  Did the news come out or something?
1727  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 08:38:56 PM
BTC "locked" in DEFI is at an all-time high at over 185 000 BTC.  ETH locked in DEFI was rising slightly while the price was dropping to 1750$, which led me to believe this was not going lower.  Both amounts are stabilizing but I think over the month of august/september we will see an acceleration in amounts locked in DEFI.  And remember defi means = locking up capital, borrowing USD, buying more BTC/eth, rinse, repeat.
60k was a first top, real top of cycle will be most likely 90k - 180k depending on how crazy people get.  Probably this speculation season, autumn.  Thats my 2 satoshis

I have never looked into how locking Bitcoin in an ETH contract works.  Because I think ETH is a rube goldberg scamtraption. 


I am assuming it's something like HTLCs on the BTC side.

But I would like nothing more than some attack surface get exploited and the BTC get lost.  I guess that's terrible.  But if people are only going to learn by trying to LICK the damn stove, then it might as well be on HIGH.
1728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 05:49:49 PM
This is a BEAUTY of a bullflag.  It's already up so much, but I do not seeing it stay here for much longer.  



I say 70% chance breaks up which is possibly a run to ~44k (!!)
30% chance we Bart back down ~35.

Those numbers are conservative... I am adjusting for my bias since internally I am way better than 2:1 for.
1729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 05:03:37 PM
Though I don't hold any BTC, it's good to see it pumping. The leveraged shorters were getting so annoying.

I want BTC to range $25,000-$45,000 multiple times, hard and fast, to teach stupid gamblers some manners.
In my HUMBLE opinion being short bitcoin (which you are by holding assets (USD/GOLD/XXXX) other than it) is gambling.

Who learns a lesson if it powers through 25-45k seemingly not to look back?

What does one have to gain with a ZERO allocation to this kind of asset?

I know you have done quite well in your speculation.  I salute you there... I do not have the nerves to play those games.
1730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 01:35:42 PM
The energy is there. The potential is there. Just one small push...

https://youtu.be/YXn08b5Illo

You know... we are a very ungrateful lot.

We act like the central banks are not on our side.  But they are the ones who have done all the hard work setting up the dominoes.  They stored all that potential energy for us.

Let us pause a moment in gratitude for the Central Banks.

Lol.  Hahahahaha.  Haaaa.  No... Really ... Fuck them.
1731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2021, 12:38:33 PM
Haha! Said no one on the internet ever, lol. It's interesting to me, once you get outside our btc bubble how completely uneducated on this topic the vast majority of people are about it. It's like Dunning-Kruger Mt. Stupid level understanding combined with complete apathy/uninterest about the topic they claim to know all about.

Heck, even within the bubble, there are still quite a few nuances that many people are not really aware of. Change addresses, transaction dependencies, block emission and so on. Bitcoin is definitely the poster boy for Dunning-Kruger.

No kidding.  The entire Elon roller coaster is a perfect example.
1732  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 25, 2021, 04:37:18 AM
The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context. Otherwise privacy isn't even a question, but even on a clear chain the easiest way is to bring to end of life those seeking to breach it / control everything.
How do you call someone trying to follow you and see what you do each time you open your physical wallet and spend or receive a bank note? A stalker? A threat? A psycho? You can as always paper trail him to the nearest police station (if those thing still exist in your neck of the wood) or to a darker alley...

be ready for max fud by the control freaks (cbds, aka central bank digital scams) and others "open chain data harvesters".

As far as inflation goes, I personally do not think this is a settled question. 

The bitcoin experiment is a long way off from no block subsidy.
Decades will pass before we get close.
Either blocksizes will have increased, or layered systems will allow bitcoin to be a settlement chain with very dense, but very expensive transactions on the base chain.

Monero will probably need this as well frankly.  It's emission barely even lifts it out of deflationary status in my opinion.

1733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2021, 09:24:09 PM
Hey Jimbo, how's the cabin in the woods coming along?

Slowly. Municipal red tape.

Can't do too much until we do significant road work. Currently arranging liability insurance to protect the town's ass before we can make improvements to the "historically traveled" public road allowance (currently a snowmobile trail) which is the only access to the property. The problem is that road itself strays off the public allowance and onto private property in several places. Luckily the previous owner got it "graveled" (actually fist-sized pieces of broken granite) as far as our property before the town put a stop-work order on it.

He continued the graveling part way into our property. At the moment it takes a rugged 4x4 to get to within about a kilometer from the lake itself. It's a vigorous hike from there.

In the meantime, we've moved a trailer to the farm next to the trailhead. We'd already arranged to drop a shipping container there to serve as secure storage and parking for an ATV. For the time being, we'll stay in the trailer on the farm and take the ATV out to the lake.

Here's the trailer:



and the spot for the sea bin:



Here's the ATV we're getting: https://atvsxs.honda.ca/side-by-side/700-series/pioneer-700-4-deluxe

We don't need no stinking Lambos!

After we finish the road all the way to the lake, we'll put in a permanent dwelling with septic and solar.

So much to do. It's way better than boring though.

That's a nice sized box of sticks and tin you are living int... Noice.  I am a lover of the travel trailer... but I tend to like the wee ones.
1734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2021, 04:06:18 PM
That last one is the real area the things shines.  Muun is a 2of2 multisig wallet.  You hold BOTH keys, and control them both.  But only ONE of them is ever on your phone.  Muun provides the service of cosigning your spends. But they only have one key.  This means if someone gets your phone?  They can't get your bitcoin.  You can make 3 different kinds of backups.

I don't know anything about Muun, but would it be possible to set up the wallet as 2 of 3 instead of 2 of 2 multisig? The last key can also be your own personal backup and 2 of 3 takes up the same space as 2 of 2 when spending and using only 2 keys.

*edit* enjoying my new hat with laser eyes.

I think that is a good strategy.  I thought of it too (which is also why I think it's genius! Wink )  It seems to me the Muun folks are going for the most absolutely streamlined design they possibly can. And adding a third key would add complexity to a backup.  We type folks might appreciate that complexity but their strategy is probably simpler for someone that knows nothing about bitcoin.  You just need a password you can remember, a key written down somewhere, and a cloud server to keep the encrypted full b/u.  And then the mechanics of the recovery are very well thought out.  I tried the email type.  It was great. And the tradeoffs they chose are very smart.  It's as secure as it can possibly be without being in unfamiliar territory.

The fact they use cloud storage to store a encrypted full backup is also awesome.  "Cloud storage" and "bitcoin backup" are concepts that really should be avoided by purists, but for this use, again the tradeoffs are pretty spot on.

All open source, and a tool that can be used to do the restoration if everything else is gone (including the Muun servers, phone etc.).

All the while handling BOTH base layer HD addresses as well as a channel open to Muun on your node.  If the channel still exists it is part of the backup, and even in the most "rip cord" situation the channel is closed and the funds returned to a 1 of 1 address you hold the key for.

Having run nodes since the very beginning I am quite familiar with all the potholes along the way in LN security.  It has been one of my biggest most nagging doubts about the viability.  It's just too convoluted and difficult for even TECHNICAL users.

Muun really give me a little bullish ah-ha (which is why I am yammering here) because they are DOING what I have been waiting to see.  Working out the details in a way that just about ANYONE with a modicum internet comfort can safely use the LN without worrying about... well... just about anything.

Last night I sent $50 from Muun to my node.  I do not yet have a channel open to Muun (but plan to open one).  I was charged exactly NOTHING for this 150k sat transaction.  And it felt just like Bitcoin... except it was instant, and free, and immediately spendable.

itshappening.gif
1735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2021, 04:38:40 AM
Comically bad shilling for the Rube Goldberg machine, Larry Summers Lightning Network

I suggest everyone in this thread to read this post right this second concerning Lightning Network.  This is actually supposed to be a PRO-LN post, yet it comes off as just a comically dysfunctional Rubix cube that looks like something Comedy Central would post as a joke:

https://blog.muun.com/the-inbound-capacity-problem-in-the-lightning-network/

The idea that garbage could be in ANY WAY useful or usable at all for end users is outrageous.  And the post even inadvertently shows you why LN is designed to completely centralize where all your transactions will be routed through a single permissioned bank.  I LAUGH IN THE FACE of anyone that claims this is "the future".  The future of dystopia maybe.

Just a blast from the past... you miss him, don't you.  Bah.  He is one of the few humans I sincerely would feel ZERO sadness for if I heard he was run over by a train.

But I gotta quote this since I came to update some of my LN thoughts.

I keep three lightning wallets on my phone.  Wallet of Satoshi.  Bulletproof custodial. Teeny fees.  Totally worth having if you have trouble with the other two or if you want to have a 100% drop dead easy time with it.  Zeus. By far the best front end for your own node.

But the reason I came was a sleeper I just had not spent much time with.

Muun.

This is one of the most impressive pieces of bitcoin software I have ever used.  I heard Dorsey praise it during the silly interview, and my estimation of him went up a little.

First of all the damn thing is just a smooth implementation.  It works great.  I have done a huge range of payments with it, and I have sent it over a 100$ inbound.  The fees are not inflated.  I am curious how they solve the inbound liquidity problem.  But hre are the bullet points:

Good BECH32 BTC wallet.
The best main chain fee estimation I have seen.
Seamless, perfect LN integration.
Normal LN fees. No premium.
Somehow achieves inbound liquidity.
Neutrino non custodial node.
Backups!

That last one is the real area the things shines.  Muun is a 2of2 multisig wallet.  You hold BOTH keys, and control them both.  But only ONE of them is ever on your phone.  Muun provides the service of cosigning your spends. But they only have one key.  This means if someone gets your phone?  They can't get your bitcoin.  You can make 3 different kinds of backups.

You can use an email address and a password to collaborate with Muun to restore your wallet.  Or an email address and your seed to do it on your own, OR if you lose everything you can decrypt a file that has both keys in it using your password.

They are ahead of all other projects when it comes to creating something easy enough for a noob to run as well as well thought out enough to be useful to one of us jabrones.

It's my new fav.

Screw Roach.  Such wrong.  Wow.
1736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2021, 04:04:37 AM
Do you guys feel it?  I feel it.  Just a little... so i don't want to get too carried away...
1737  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2021, 01:47:24 AM
Traders Influencers wrecked by bringing the price sub 30k. They still preaching 18k  Cheesy let's see. Might come. But trading in this market situation is nuts. Market could turn anytime and many who sold could miss the train.

Edit: I see Virtualbacon admits he got shaken out and believes 30k is bottom. Others could not admit. Was a fan of  Elliot Trading. But as soon as he sold his stash, he started to manipulate his followers telling em bitcoin going to 13k. While he was talking about 300k while we were at 60k. Unsubbed from many of these guys.

Edit: Here is a bullish chart. Bitcoin is at its lowest in history.

Quote
The Stock to Flow (S/F) Deflection is the ratio between the current Bitcoin price and the S/F model. If deflection is ≥ 1 it means that Bitcoin is overvalued according to the S/F model, otherwise undervalued.


You've been around a while.  You have been through more than a handful of big bitcoin moves.  And the people you describe have always existed as well.  If you can build a big enough following you might be able to scalp a pretty nice pile out of your followers.  And some of these guys might even be somewhat gifted analysts. 

In my experience the ones who spend time predicting things in the short time frame but make "sure thing" calls on direction end up crashing eventually. 

Because ultimately they are only a little better than full of shit.

I do not know that S2F chart you posted... but it looks bullish as heck for the run we are currently in.  We haven't even started according to that thing.

See I like a chart that just puts the info out.  Our own Toxic surfs that wave...
1738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2021, 10:25:38 PM
God, ripple army is flooding my mentions on Twixter now... good grief.  This is horrible... I suppose I have to wield the banhammer.
1739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2021, 04:56:33 PM
...

In what can only considered to be good news, Circle K (US convenience stores mostly in the S and SW USA) will soon be hosting thousands of Bitcoin Depot BTMs:

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-atms-to-invade-circle-k-convenience-stores

https://cointelegraph.com/news/circle-k-convenience-stores-will-host-thousands-of-crypto-atms


I can only hope that someone in this business can finally find a model that does not rape the buyer at the ATM.  I would think you would have much more purchases when the spread is not so huge that the buyer is giving up more than 20%.

So far, in my opinion, that has been the problem with Bitcoin ATMs.

I assume the one in El Zonte is an exception, as well as whichever one our Canadian guitar slinger has famously used for so long.
1740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2021, 01:49:49 PM
Fair enough.

If the various never ending puzzles of richie T are crowd sourced, sooner or later everything is going to make MOAR senses.

It's really not genius level stuff. The answer is even in the URL.

I canna stand it anymore

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