This is bullish for price stability whether it is "right" or not...

Good stuff... yes, we are holding up rather well as far as these things go.  There might just be some gas in the tank!

@McDude: ready the weekend pump truck!

Price action is looking interesting.  I think we are still seeing an uptick of activity/volume, and the price is biased towards rising, for sure.  The bart caused by rumor/fakenews was way more exiting going up and resisted the downside.

I still also feel optimistic about this earning season.  Maybe this is not the one... but even if we just see 2 big players announce they are even dipping their toe in some BTC reserves that would be significant.  I think 2 is a good number... we had that first crazy dude dancing as Microstrategy and then Tesla got up, and second guessed, and got up again...

It would be nice for 2 or 3 or 5 others run up now, and maybe Elon will not keep pulling his pants down. And even if he keeps doing it people will be less interested.

I agree.  Bitcoin will not be a transactional currency until, and unless the LN network matures and is deployed by vendors.

People are not incentivized to SPEND bitcoin.  There are people who reject the whole "digital gold" NGU thing, and I think some of their logic actually makes some pretty good sense.  I just think they are wrong that this is not a healthy stage for Bitcoin.  It is both healthy and needed.  I strongly believe Bitcoins "transactional" value is going to lag until we see the middle of the S curve insofar as being a reserve asset is concerned.  Until then gresham's law reigns supreme.

After we pass the adoption bellcurve for store of value we will begin to see transactional bitcoin growing.

But a parallel exception to this rule are developing countries.  In a place like El Salvador, they may skip forward to bitcoin as money because they NEED it.  I think these paths can exist in parallel.  And as nations like ES show prosperity because of the inflow of good money other nations with nothing to lose will follow.

In the meantime the smart institutional money will do whatever they can to slow adoption as they accumulate and shift their business strategy.  more and more of them realize it is a land race, and they are almost certainly beginning to take stakes in bitcoin as a reserve asset.  They are INCENTIVIZED to delay the stampede of retail.  Yet they cannot stop it, because they have not chosen to spend the time they HAD to wall off bitcoin from the public, and could not on a global front even if they chose to.  So they are too late.  Also I will be surprised if we make it through earnings season without a handful of companies at least sending up test flares if not outright reporting they will, or have already taken a position.

The central banks are also too late.  These evil fuckers, however, will most likely NOT just capitulate.  It's going to be fun to watch them burn down.  I look forward to seeing the WEF, IMF, and all the other CB stooges on the pyre of history.  I hope the conflict does not get too hot.

Seriously though... this is a dump for ants, for sure.  I am not capitulating my hopium mask here.

OK, sadly there's the possible bart-down.  Although it could also be a head fake.  Did the news come out or something?

I have never looked into how locking Bitcoin in an ETH contract works.  Because I think ETH is a rube goldberg scamtraption. 


I am assuming it's something like HTLCs on the BTC side.

But I would like nothing more than some attack surface get exploited and the BTC get lost.  I guess that's terrible.  But if people are only going to learn by trying to LICK the damn stove, then it might as well be on HIGH.

This is a BEAUTY of a bullflag.  It's already up so much, but I do not seeing it stay here for much longer.  



I say 70% chance breaks up which is possibly a run to ~44k (!!)
30% chance we Bart back down ~35.

Those numbers are conservative... I am adjusting for my bias since internally I am way better than 2:1 for.

In my HUMBLE opinion being short bitcoin (which you are by holding assets (USD/GOLD/XXXX) other than it) is gambling.

Who learns a lesson if it powers through 25-45k seemingly not to look back?

What does one have to gain with a ZERO allocation to this kind of asset?

I know you have done quite well in your speculation.  I salute you there... I do not have the nerves to play those games.

You know... we are a very ungrateful lot.

We act like the central banks are not on our side.  But they are the ones who have done all the hard work setting up the dominoes.  They stored all that potential energy for us.

Let us pause a moment in gratitude for the Central Banks.

Lol.  Hahahahaha.  Haaaa.  No... Really ... Fuck them.

No kidding.  The entire Elon roller coaster is a perfect example.

As far as inflation goes, I personally do not think this is a settled question. 

The bitcoin experiment is a long way off from no block subsidy.
Decades will pass before we get close.
Either blocksizes will have increased, or layered systems will allow bitcoin to be a settlement chain with very dense, but very expensive transactions on the base chain.

Monero will probably need this as well frankly.  It's emission barely even lifts it out of deflationary status in my opinion.

That's a nice sized box of sticks and tin you are living int... Noice.  I am a lover of the travel trailer... but I tend to like the wee ones.

I think that is a good strategy.  I thought of it too (which is also why I think it's genius! )  It seems to me the Muun folks are going for the most absolutely streamlined design they possibly can. And adding a third key would add complexity to a backup.  We type folks might appreciate that complexity but their strategy is probably simpler for someone that knows nothing about bitcoin.  You just need a password you can remember, a key written down somewhere, and a cloud server to keep the encrypted full b/u.  And then the mechanics of the recovery are very well thought out.  I tried the email type.  It was great. And the tradeoffs they chose are very smart.  It's as secure as it can possibly be without being in unfamiliar territory.

The fact they use cloud storage to store a encrypted full backup is also awesome.  "Cloud storage" and "bitcoin backup" are concepts that really should be avoided by purists, but for this use, again the tradeoffs are pretty spot on.

All open source, and a tool that can be used to do the restoration if everything else is gone (including the Muun servers, phone etc.).

All the while handling BOTH base layer HD addresses as well as a channel open to Muun on your node.  If the channel still exists it is part of the backup, and even in the most "rip cord" situation the channel is closed and the funds returned to a 1 of 1 address you hold the key for.

Having run nodes since the very beginning I am quite familiar with all the potholes along the way in LN security.  It has been one of my biggest most nagging doubts about the viability.  It's just too convoluted and difficult for even TECHNICAL users.

Muun really give me a little bullish ah-ha (which is why I am yammering here) because they are DOING what I have been waiting to see.  Working out the details in a way that just about ANYONE with a modicum internet comfort can safely use the LN without worrying about... well... just about anything.

Last night I sent $50 from Muun to my node.  I do not yet have a channel open to Muun (but plan to open one).  I was charged exactly NOTHING for this 150k sat transaction.  And it felt just like Bitcoin... except it was instant, and free, and immediately spendable.

itshappening.gif

Just a blast from the past... you miss him, don't you.  Bah.  He is one of the few humans I sincerely would feel ZERO sadness for if I heard he was run over by a train.

But I gotta quote this since I came to update some of my LN thoughts.

I keep three lightning wallets on my phone.  Wallet of Satoshi.  Bulletproof custodial. Teeny fees.  Totally worth having if you have trouble with the other two or if you want to have a 100% drop dead easy time with it.  Zeus. By far the best front end for your own node.

But the reason I came was a sleeper I just had not spent much time with.

Muun.

This is one of the most impressive pieces of bitcoin software I have ever used.  I heard Dorsey praise it during the silly interview, and my estimation of him went up a little.

First of all the damn thing is just a smooth implementation.  It works great.  I have done a huge range of payments with it, and I have sent it over a 100$ inbound.  The fees are not inflated.  I am curious how they solve the inbound liquidity problem.  But hre are the bullet points:

Good BECH32 BTC wallet.
The best main chain fee estimation I have seen.
Seamless, perfect LN integration.
Normal LN fees. No premium.
Somehow achieves inbound liquidity.
Neutrino non custodial node.
Backups!

That last one is the real area the things shines.  Muun is a 2of2 multisig wallet.  You hold BOTH keys, and control them both.  But only ONE of them is ever on your phone.  Muun provides the service of cosigning your spends. But they only have one key.  This means if someone gets your phone?  They can't get your bitcoin.  You can make 3 different kinds of backups.

You can use an email address and a password to collaborate with Muun to restore your wallet.  Or an email address and your seed to do it on your own, OR if you lose everything you can decrypt a file that has both keys in it using your password.

They are ahead of all other projects when it comes to creating something easy enough for a noob to run as well as well thought out enough to be useful to one of us jabrones.

It's my new fav.

Screw Roach.  Such wrong.  Wow.

Do you guys feel it?  I feel it.  Just a little... so i don't want to get too carried away...

You've been around a while.  You have been through more than a handful of big bitcoin moves.  And the people you describe have always existed as well.  If you can build a big enough following you might be able to scalp a pretty nice pile out of your followers.  And some of these guys might even be somewhat gifted analysts. 

In my experience the ones who spend time predicting things in the short time frame but make "sure thing" calls on direction end up crashing eventually. 

Because ultimately they are only a little better than full of shit.

I do not know that S2F chart you posted... but it looks bullish as heck for the run we are currently in.  We haven't even started according to that thing.

See I like a chart that just puts the info out.  Our own Toxic surfs that wave...

God, ripple army is flooding my mentions on Twixter now... good grief.  This is horrible... I suppose I have to wield the banhammer.

I can only hope that someone in this business can finally find a model that does not rape the buyer at the ATM.  I would think you would have much more purchases when the spread is not so huge that the buyer is giving up more than 20%.

So far, in my opinion, that has been the problem with Bitcoin ATMs.

I assume the one in El Zonte is an exception, as well as whichever one our Canadian guitar slinger has famously used for so long.

I canna stand it anymore