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Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?
2, 175, 3100:
87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.
Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.
Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.
I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.
TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?
2, 175, 3100:
87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.
Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.
Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.
I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.
TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).
Possible (or as JJG says perhaps.. perhaps.. haha
). But we can as well still be in the same cycle with a blow off top delayed until Q1 2022. Even if we're not, I don't think we're going down a lot from here because MS, Grayscale, Bukele etc are not selling I'm sure about that. Already $30k looks very improbable. There are little to no weak hands lefts (only miners desperate to cover running costs?). If I haven't sold at $69k why should I sell at $46k? Does it make any sense? 
