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1781  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: May 16, 2022, 06:19:22 PM
And at the same time some of the shale gas producers in the United States have refrained from ramping up their production, for unknown reasons.
Shale oil producers in the US got a very painful disappointment a few years ago when oil was cheap and shale oil production became unprofitable. Now it's profitable again, but investment is in no hurry to return to the industry, because the "greens" in the US and Europe now have a very strong lobby. Their favorite mantra is renewable energy and they are full of contempt for fossil energy sources.
1782  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Finland and Sweden OFFICIALLY announce their intention to join NATO on: May 16, 2022, 06:12:06 PM
Putin said today that he has no problems with Finland and Sweden. But if their entry into NATO entails existential threats to Russia in the form of NATO military bases or US nuclear arsenals appearing on their territory, then Russia will make its military-technical response, whatever that means.

Now, it should be clear to anyone with half a brain that the 'problem with Ukraine' was not about its NATO membership or 'prosecution of the Russian language', but simply full access to the Black Sea, farmland, and Donbas resources.

Finland's and Sweden's NATO memberships are not a 'problem' for Russia now even though Russia's border with NATO increased substantially.
The 'problem with Ukraine' is the dementia and courage of Ukrainian nationalists. Scandinavians are more balanced people.

Of course, there will be nuclear weapons and NATO bases in Finland. Why do you think they are joining? To get membership cards?
Sweden has already stated that its accession to NATO will not entail the appearance of NATO military bases and nuclear weapons on its territory. I think Finland will prudently follow its example, because Putin, in a conversation with the President of Finland, clearly said that this was a mistake. It's time to start listening to what Putin says, because he has already shown that he is not bluffing or joking.

BTW, Russians are eradicating the Ukrainian language and culture in the occupied territories. School curricula have been changed to completely Russify the population, and completely ignore the needs of the native population of the occupied territories.

Russkiy fucking mir. Russians are the true Nazis.

I hope Ukrainians will keep killing Russians until the last one leaves their lands.
The hopes of young men are nourished.
1783  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why Russia isn't using it's full force in Ukraine ? tactically .. on: May 16, 2022, 06:04:26 PM
Russia is using soft power tactics to sway the sympathies of Ukrainian civilians. Therefore, the Kherson region has already announced its withdrawal from Ukraine and the desire to join Russia.

Not "Kherson region", but a puppet government installed by Russians.
The dog barks, the caravan moves on. Residents of the Kherson region will have a chance to express their will in a referendum. In the meantime, Ukraine has stopped paying pensions and social benefits to residents of the Kherson region, and Russia is doing this for Ukraine. And Ukraine shoots at residential areas, this is the only thing it knows how to do well.

Russia acts in Ukraine not as an occupier, but as a liberator. This is much more difficult and longer than bombing everything with air bombs and cleaning up the ruins. But in the long run, it's a winning strategy.

Except out here in the real world they bombed and shelled Mariupol for two months.
Mariupol was not bombed, Azovstal was bombed.
1784  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 16, 2022, 05:36:28 PM
At first, Russia thought that it will be a quick military operation and they will achieve their goals. But they have failed.
Rumors about the Russian blitzkrieg are based on the value judgment of the US intelligence, which in the course of one year made a gross mistake twice - first in Afghanistan, and then in Ukraine, incorrectly assessing the combat effectiveness of local armies. I repeat once again, the opinion that Kyiv will hold out for 3-4 days in the event of aggression from Russia belongs to the CIA. Russia is running its operation at its own pace on its own schedule and it will end when Russia says "enough".
1785  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Finland and Sweden OFFICIALLY announce their intention to join NATO on: May 16, 2022, 05:29:41 PM
Putin said today that he has no problems with Finland and Sweden. But if their entry into NATO entails existential threats to Russia in the form of NATO military bases or US nuclear arsenals appearing on their territory, then Russia will make its military-technical response, whatever that means.
1786  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why Russia isn't using it's full force in Ukraine ? tactically .. on: May 16, 2022, 05:22:44 PM
Why Russia isn't using it's full force in Ukraine ?

Why the russians are allowing the ukrainens to win ... they had Kiev in their hands and then they retreat ,it makes no sense,tactically it makes no sense ... as a general i would have bombed Kiev like Mariupol or worse ...

Russia has a lot of resources ...ammo never finishes for russians ...you had Kiev in your hands why would you give it back ? ...no sense ...


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/why-hasnt-russia-mobilised-its-vast-air-power-against-ukraine
Russia is using soft power tactics to sway the sympathies of Ukrainian civilians. Therefore, the Kherson region has already announced its withdrawal from Ukraine and the desire to join Russia. Russia acts in Ukraine not as an occupier, but as a liberator. This is much more difficult and longer than bombing everything with air bombs and cleaning up the ruins. But in the long run, it's a winning strategy.
1787  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: May 16, 2022, 04:54:52 PM
It's amazing, Russia accounts for only 2% of world GDP, but it seems that this is the very necessary two percent that you can eat, pour into the gas tank of a car or heat a house with them in winter. And everything else is just numbers on the stock exchange.
1788  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 16, 2022, 02:37:02 PM
Shit happens....
It seems that progress has finally been made with Azovstal. Right now, a silence regime has been declared and an agreement has been reached on the surrender of 650 wounded Azov fighters to the DPR. No extraction, surrender.
1789  Economy / Economics / Re: Well now i know why Bill Gates bought farmland back in 2021, how did he knew ? on: May 16, 2022, 06:00:46 AM
Because the three horsemen of the Apocalypse come together one after another - Plague, War and Famine.
1790  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 15, 2022, 10:42:04 AM
The Austrian Chancellor, in an interview with Kronen Zeitung, said that the Russian underground gas storage near Salzburg (I don’t know how to pronounce it correctly, it sounds like Haidach in our country) will either be filled by Gazprom or will be forcibly nationalized and filled. The new scheme will now be called "use it or lose it" instead of "take it or pay it".
Haidach is filled almost exclusively with technical gas, which is forbidden to be lifted (because it can be done conditionally once without any problems). That is, it is empty at 99% of useful filling.
Of course Austria doesn't like it.
Now Gazprom will either be forced to fill Haidach with its own gas (which will then have to be sold under the threat of forced nationalization), or lose it altogether. Bred "like kittens."
But you need to understand that in Austria, talking about nationalization, both in interviews and even from the lips of the Chancellor, is not a very simple event. Gazprom is hysterical again Smiley
This is another European cargo cult, this time performed by Austria. Grin
1791  Local / Политика / Re: Еще немного про радиоактивный пепел. on: May 15, 2022, 10:02:34 AM
Ммм.... ээээ.. весьма здравая мысль. Есть ли потенциал или нет. Блеф или не блеф.
Какое-то реальное количество ядерных боеголовок, безусловно, есть. Но в каком они состоянии и к каким средствам доставки присобачены - это и есть главный вопрос. Я уже писАл тут, что на протяжении примерно 20 лет у США были все возможности и все средства превратить СССР в радиоактивный пепел. Но они почему-то это не сделали (может быть зря).

Есть сильные опасения, что подавляющее большинство ракет России не долетит до США. Максимум, до Европы. Если сможет. Но ответ тогда будет весьма жестоким. Мало не покажется.

Вот, например, прикол: наши пропагандисты уже даже мультики нарисовали, типа сколько нужно ракет Сармат чтобы уничтожить Великобританию. Но забывают об том, что серийное их производство вряд ли начнется раньше 2024 года (если Россия доживет). А скорее всего позднее. Вспомните, нам еще в 2015 году обещали, что Россия уже в 2019 году будет иметь космическую станцию на Луне и добывать там гелий-3. Ну что, много гелия уже добыли?

Та же фигня, похоже, будет и с ядерными ракетами... Они как гелий-3 на Луне. Может быть есть, а может быть и нету их...

Опасения сильные у него, загугли вон хоть за Посейдон - это абсолютно лютая хуерга и она на боевом дежурстве, как и Воевода (по классификации НАТО это Сатана). А Сармат это Сатана два, тоже ёбаный пиздец, но более лучший.  Grin

Ипонцам или англосаксам половинки одного Посейдона хватит для полной ускоренной демилитаризации методом погружения. А любому американскому авианосцу хватит одного Кинжала даже и с обычным тротилом. Подумай об этом на досуге.
1792  Economy / Economics / Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April on: May 15, 2022, 09:45:55 AM
Russia should not over-react at this point. They are earning tens of billions of USD right now from the high gas prices. Let the EU pay all this amount, and in the long term it will be beneficial for Russia. I guess that the gas exports will decrease from a level of 180 billion cubic meters in 2020 to around 150 billion cubic meters by 2022. But the difference is that they earned less than $25 billion from these exports in 2020 and will earn at least $150 billion in 2022 (thanks to the higher gas prices). And back in 2020, the net profit was only around $2billion. This may go up by at least 50x in 2022.
Europe is making apparently suicidal attempts to turn off Russian energy and the European economy is heading towards collapse at high speed. In such circumstances, I consider the systematic cutting off of economic ties between Russia and Europe quite reasonable, so that sinking Europe does not drag Russia along with it.
1793  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: May 14, 2022, 07:34:33 AM
Yes, both countries are among the most dependent on Russian gas in Europe. But it does not have to last several years. Germany, for example, has reduced its gas dependence on Russia from 25% to 12% within a few months, with the goal of halving it again by winter.

Germany has been purchasing super expensive LNG from Qatar and the United States and that is the reason why the share from Russia went down. But right now the demand is down, since it is summer season. The scenario won't be the same after 4-5 months. The underground gas storages are at all time low and in case Russia doesn't send gas to Germany, then half of the population will freeze to death by the end of this year. And trust me, Germany doesn't have enough LNG terminals to import the required amount of gas through tankers.
To be precise, in Germany, the number of terminals for receiving liquefied natural gas is now zero. Currently, four terminals are being urgently built, the first should be commissioned at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023.
1794  Economy / Economics / Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April on: May 14, 2022, 07:28:52 AM
And this link is interesting, well, to make it more interesting: The European Union confirmed the refusal to pay in rubles for gas from Russia
Here is also an interesting link and a week more recent - the Prime Minister of Italy says that European companies can pay for gas in rubles.

In general, European politicians say a lot of things, but at the same time, it is not politicians, but commercial companies that conclude contracts for the supply of gas.

And in the end, no one except a couple of "Kremlin's pet dogs" pays in rubles Smiley I understand that there is a huge group of pro-Kremlin influential politicians (bought or dependent due to compromising evidence) in the EU who can lobby interests, or at least destabilize the situation with their statements . This is normal for such a global confrontation!
You are in too much of a hurry and too early to sum up. This story hasn't even really begun yet, we can say now we are witnessing a prelude, or maybe the first act. Russia has made its first move in this economic war that the West has declared against it and has imposed sanctions on all Gazprom subsidiaries in Europe and around the world. Now all long-term contracts have become invalid, because they were not signed directly with Gazprom, but with its subsidiaries, which are now under sanctions. Contracts will have to be renegotiated (or not), under the terms of Russia with payment to Gazprombank and conversion into rubles, and at other prices. Germany will no longer be able to make huge money on the reverse of Russian gas. Poland can scream all you want about its rejection of Russian gas, but the gas it received in reverse from Germany was suddenly also Russian. The next cycle of payments for gas already supplied by Russia should be in the range from 15 to 20 May. Have some patience.
1795  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 13, 2022, 08:37:56 AM
False, Russia has no capability to intercept hypersonic missiles.

On the nuclear threat, the existing S-400 missile stands some chance of stopping an small number of warheads if placed in large numbers and very close to the warheads targets. S-500 at most can intercept short range ballistic missiles and there are only very costly few units (I wonder how will they be produced without semiconductors in the future). Russia does not have an advantage on NW delivery platforms by sea or air. The North Pole and the South Pole are there for everyone to use - confers zero advantage. A hypersonic missile, as of now, can deliver one warhead at mid-range only, as opposed to ICBM that can deliver multiple (even 40) warheads both real and decoy.
You know nothing about Russian missiles, but I see no reason to try to convince you - so be it. The main thing is that the Pentagon knows this, whose head Lloyd Austin recently said that in the present and future, the nuclear arsenal that Russia has presents serious difficulties for the United States.
1796  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 13, 2022, 07:20:37 AM
I am not sure it is a lie TBH, it is probably the only "reason" that may have, from Putin's view, at least some coherence. However it is mostly a flawed argument, since NATO has not invaded any country. In fact, many countries did not support US stance on Iraq other than US a a few lightweights.

I am still wondering if there is out there a system of early nuclear interception that works in a 300 or so km range from the launch point. That could explain all the fuss about security.

Fair enough, it may be not a lie in the sense that Putin et al may honestly believe it, but the fact is that no one wants to fight Russia. A resource-rich country with nuclear weapons... it's in everyone's best interest for it to be stable and friendly, so much so that even in the face of aggression (like 2008 in Georgia and 2014 in Ukraine) the rest of the world was like "nah, Putin's actually a good guy and if we buy enough gas from him, everything will be fine".

As for interception... considering that NATO deployed Patriots only in Romania (AFAIK) in the 20+ years since the expansion eastward began, and it was Romanians buying it, not NATO "donating" it, doesn't seem like it was a huge concern, at least not geographically. Now probably NATO will stack missile defence three rows deep along the entire border, again a great victory for the geopolitical genius Vladimir Vladimirovich.
NATO's strategy is to get closer to Russia and thus reduce the reaction time for the Russian missile defense system. Russia's strategy is to have a significant advantage in the means of delivering nuclear weapons, by increasing the range and speed of missiles. NATO and Russia are both quite successful in their strategies, but whose strategy is more effective I hope I will never know in practice.

In simple words, Russian missiles are now so fast and long-range that NATO does not have adequate countermeasures. They can fly over the North Pole, bypassing NATO missile defense systems, they can even fly over the South Pole. This is if we are talking about land-based missiles, and Russia's nuclear triad also includes sea- and air-based missiles, which are on constant combat duty. In the event of a serious mess, I would not hesitate to bet on Russia. To effectively intercept missiles, you need to be twice (and preferably four times) faster. At the moment, any NATO missiles are noticeably slower than Russians. As Biden said about the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, it's an ordinary missile, it's just almost impossible to intercept it. And Russia has missiles two to three times faster than Kinzhal, as well as the S-500 missile defense system, capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles, which NATO, in principle, still does not have. It is technically not easy to make a rocket for which flight in a cloud of hot plasma is a regular mode of operation, well, Russian engineers succeeded. Old school rocket science has no unsolvable problems.

You seem to be a sane person, but you eat all sorts of shit and don’t even wince. Tank special forces on a minibus lol. Grin
1797  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 11, 2022, 09:19:29 PM
he has video evidence

You linked to a youtube video of him talking about it. That's not "video evidence".
What kind of evidence do you need? That Azov militants wear SS chevrons, torture and kill captured Russian soldiers? That the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine use the houses of civilians as ammunition depots and firing points? That the provocation in Bucha was staged, filmed with professional film equipment and sewn with white thread? Are you sure that there is not enough evidence in this topic and are you ready to adequately perceive new ones?
1798  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 11, 2022, 08:27:27 PM
~

Radio show of a known putinist repeats Putin's talking points. I wonder how that happened.
This guy was in Ukraine for two weeks, he saw everything with his own eyes and he has video evidence. Evidence has no nationality and political convictions - they either prove something, or they are not evidence. I understand that you are mired in the propaganda lies of the West and are ready to reject any opinion that runs counter to yours, but the truth will always find its way, sooner or later.
1799  Economy / Economics / Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April on: May 11, 2022, 08:17:29 PM
And this link is interesting, well, to make it more interesting: The European Union confirmed the refusal to pay in rubles for gas from Russia
Here is also an interesting link and a week more recent - the Prime Minister of Italy says that European companies can pay for gas in rubles.

In general, European politicians say a lot of things, but at the same time, it is not politicians, but commercial companies that conclude contracts for the supply of gas.
1800  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 11, 2022, 06:46:03 PM
Meanwhile, according to JPMorgan, the Russian economy did not justify the hopes of the West - it did not collapse. Grin
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