What would I do with fresh fiat TODAY ?

30% cash awaiting to buy BTC in over next 1-3-6 months. (If it makes sense at the time)
25% cash awaiting to buy a very particular alt over 1-3-6 months. (Regardless)
15% cash awaiting to buy another particular alt over 1-3-6 months. (If it makes sense at the time)
20% cash for rainy day for BTC next year/year after/ Blackswan. (If it makes sense at the time)
10% cash just cos

Bruh...  where you been ?

I got a question for you....

How many trees you planted ?

Do you rip trees up wen you lose sats too?

Are you actually near a rainsforest?

Did you mention living in/near Mongolia before ?

Fair, that is  what the "until the end" bit means thou'  "until it isn't"

One note... I do not necessarily advocate trend trading alone, nor momentum trading alone.... I advocate for the three I mentioned all in unison together, that is what I was trying to say at least... trend together with momentum and together with volatility ...

ie, take trades that are with the trend not against it...(look for longs in up trends, not shorts, look for shorts in downtrends, not longs) and then together with a signal from momentum oscillators, so you should have a direction, and then look for volatility expansion or contraction from extremes, which coincide with the trend and momentum.... when you get all three together, then, consider entering a trade.

(with usual risk management/position sizing etc)  


Not financial advice

Trading , leverage or no, is like a tool.


There are of course considerations, and safety considerations, and risk assessments and at the end of the day , risks no matter how you dice it.... no arguments there, and I am not one of those who claims to have a perfect record... far from it.

Education usually costs money.

For sure, on top of everything else, counterparty risk, is a bitch... not just exchanges going bust and taking down your stash... been there, done that, MtGox, Bitfinex, twice, Cryptsy, and a few others.... yup I know that road all too well.


Buuuuuuuut also, exchanges that, have shoddy engines, have unreliable trade executions, disappearing orders, limit orders that trigger too early , too late, cascading liquidations that fail to trigger your orders and skip right through to the next price points etc etc.. I have seen it all. I had, pre BTC days got absolutely, criminally totally fucked in the ass by eToro... not even funny, for the tune of 27K.


I would say this goes hand in hand with risk management and bank roll management though.... you cannot forget about counterparty risk.  


The safest bet is self custody for sure...


However.... I reiterate my position that not all trading is bad, that all TA/QA is not useless, leverage is just a tool (a dangerous tool that will cut your arm off without proper risk management)


Tis what it is.


Tis not for everyone.


Tis not even for the SAME person, a good thing at different times (for example, you are stressed/not in the right mind, under financial stress, not well, not rested, have not thought out what you are doing, have not done extensive training, market conditions are not right... you are drunk etc etc)


Tis also, not a great thing at certain points of the market ... longing near potential macro tops, shorting near potential macro bottoms, ie market extremes... or either can be dangerous in sideways volatile chop (options could be yo friend thou)

Another often unspoken about factor, is your trade sizing and positioning in relation to your margin ... and your available collateral. Done right, you can, withstanding FUNDING, effectively reduce your liquidation point to basically close to zero... sure that comes with some minimal risks too... what doesn't.... that is what you get paid for at the end of the day, assuming risk.


Going long, at macro bottoms, once a retest of support has occurred, and upon confirmation of higher lows and highs, AND  WHEN ALL MID TERM AND LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGES ARE POINTED UP... IS a far better idea than when that is not the case, ESPECIALLY WITH LEVERAGE.  Combine that with risk management, and sensible trade sizing... and well, one is in a better position than if one did not take all those things into consideration.    


Trend is your friend.... until the end.... my only friend.


Alzo.... TREND + MOMENTUM + VOLATILITY taken together... is a useful way of viewing the market.

That was the idea methinks

I need a nap.


Get cranky wen no nap.


 

When BTC was created ... no one in a regulatory position, knew what it was.

Now, there is some consensus that it is not a security.... good stuff I agree.... well done clap clap... did they come to that conclusion after a few (lazy) hours of consideration... have a fucking medal.

Now there is this conversation about "altcoins" or certain altcoins, and if they are "securities"

HOT fucking take.... they are not the same as securities in my opinion..... and attempting to force these new tokens/technologies, into the same bracket as "securities" is a desperate attempt to maintain a status quo.

A status quo, that is old, and outdated , as per status quos.

Proposition: regulators, take their lazy thumbs out of their fat lazy asses and do some fucking work, and create a new framework that takes into account the new technology and what it is and stop trying to cram it into their neat little control box.

SAME for BTC really, it does not fit into any of their neat little old antiquated control mechanisms boxes.


Actually, I find it kinda pathetic how both regulators, and maxis, try and make it so.


BURN IT ALL FUCKING DOWN.... get up to speed, the legacy system is antiquated trash, walled garden, control mechanisms, and I wish it all to die.


Wake up, it is a brave new day.


What is good for the goose is good for the gander.


Watching people use the "ewwww only BTC is not a security and all altcoins are securities" reeks to me of old, power hungry stinky old bastards.

Anecdotal , however I find TA, historical analysis, quantitative analysis  which I mainly keep to myself, for myself, usually, to be very very useful, especially for shorter time frames ... like the monthly (SLUT) for example.

It is not a be all and end all though, and it is not ever meant to be, it is designed to give some statistical edge..... and must be combined with effective bank roll management.... AND effective RISK MANAGEMENT.

....and of course macro and fundamentals are also super useful.



Unless you consider them all, then you ain't doing it right by MY BOOK.


I mean.... ya should not be getting REKT, LEVERAGE or NO LEVERAGE , given effective analysis, bank roll management, AND risk management.....


Jus my two cents.


If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.

Whaddya think about the London gold cartel and paper manipulation ?

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

Ouch.


Looks nasty..... hope you mend up soon.


Never great when you are out in the sticks and you snap something...  were you out far?

Not sure it is bearish tbh.... one could say it is unwanted attention but not sold on it being bearish.

Only a mere heartbeat or two ago this sort of news would have been celebrated.

Also, have you considered it focuses on capital requirements... is there a scenario where this prevents fuckery from these institutions ?


Also, it has implications for stablecoins holdings by institutions too..... positive ones imo


Or no?


Rome was not built in a day....todays 1% is tomorrows 10%


Also... from my point of view, I was just sharing new newses.... as is custom.

All depends what you want/need/can do ..... ?

Best situation imo, is having options....


(though that being said... if the shit REALLY hits the fan (as even covid lockdowns showed) where you are is where you are)

Silly professor

heh heh.... you know, I actually fully expect "alien invasion" larp at some point in the future, maybe not in our lifetimes though.


Buuuuuuutttt unfortunately, out of all of the scenarios I laid out, or a combination, or a full house.... I just do not see them as being that outrageous, we seem to be on track for mutiple of them, if not the full house actually playing out in reality.


Russia/Ukraine - seems very plausible tactical nukes get deployed, not 100%, but not 0%, and probably higher than 50% imo  - and , markets I do not think have priced this in

Covid- well , according to the MSM, we now have higher covid cases in the UK than at any time apart from three weeks of the pandemic and, I am hearing chatter about "variant concerns" and , IF , and it is a big IF, there is anything worse about the variant... I am hearing chatter about lockdowns in winter again , ALREADY.


Inflation continuing to rise, and interest rates, and inflation not dampening .... looks like its a decent possibility


Food , fuel, energy prices hike like a MOFO come end of year... looks like that is happening (markets possibly pricing that in already?)


Supply chains grind to halt because of all of the above, is a given, if these scenarios play out.


Civil unrest? depends on if ^^ comes to fruition, if so, I can very much imagine it!  ie Energy, Fuel, food shortages and price hikes, employee lay offs from companies, credit crunch/rates rise,  people get priced out of their mortgages and start losing their homes? lockdowns again compounding it all ...people are going to snap (imo)


China is the wildest card amongst the lot... and personally I am not sure that China is ready to make a move yet .....


As for the rest of it.... I can so imagine it.


Again, I can imagine it not playing out that way also.

DCA in downtrend on steroids

ps.... another scenario of course, given the history of BTC, that, BTC would have done what it is doing right now, even if everything in the world was as it was pre 2019/20 covid... I mean, BTC could have simply been doing what it does, pump, and then retrace 70-85%ish and literally none of this shit happening has made the slightest difference, and technically BTC is just doing what it has always done... and will continue to do so... and we find bottom, and potentially grind it out, up and down, until approach to havening and then, well, we all know what usually happens next......

WUT? I AM NOT TROLLING? you have misread my intent entirely

Now back to the discussion.


"covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?"

It is a potential realistic outcome, thats the link.

"If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries."  ....

Yeah, ermm that is kinda the point I am making!!  and again, it is not like any of that stuff is currently "wildly outrageous to suggest" - just the opposite in fact, it is looking like they are extremely likely POTENTIAL scenarios !!


"Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above."

Negative, and negative, I am extremely unsure the bottom is 100% in YET. And a lot depends on what happens next over the next 6 months in meat life.

.....


Actually, I was asking you, and others, a genuine question! about these pretty realistic scenarios and where you see the price going!

The basic premise being, what if the situation gets worse, than it was 2020? (3.x bottom) I mean it could go many ways... maybe there is a double bottom, maybe there is a higher low... (due to the fact we have come down from much higher and the floor is raised) OR maybe as the scenario where the situation is even worse plays out, that 3.xK does NOT HOLD.


REMEMBER , these are just hypotheticals.

Also, perhaps, one of these scenarios plays out, or a combination of, or a full house of them plays out (not that outlandish unfortunately) and actually , some of you may be of the view that at some point, that actually, honey badger kicks in and we start to go higher.


The thrust of my post is

1) things could be about to get fugly (and thats the scenarios I am having a thought experiment about) I mean, to what extent is any of these , increasingly likely scenarios "priced in"

2) I wonder how prepared people are, for a deterioration of the situations I pose

3)  Where do people think price would go in one or multiple or all of these scenarios

4) I am curious as to peoples thoughts.


I am not saying all these things will happen! but, then, I am not saying they will not either.. I can easily imagine it, the lot of it.


I can also imagine, a situation where, one by one these issues are all resolved somewhat (well Ukraine/Russia calms down, China does nothing (yet) /new Covid variant does not happen, no new lockdown, inflation steadies, food and fuel prices stabilise, markets like what they see, and between now and October ish, we really are bottomed.... and then off to the races......at least for a while.

Not trolling in the slightest

Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings)