Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[dragonvslinux]

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

What about TA is astrology.  Stop believing in it.  You have the attitude of a gambling addict, who declares that his special variation of Martingale will really, really work this time, if the strategy is tweaked and the lucky rabbit’s foot is rubbed extra-vigorously.

You seem to be projecting your emotions here, especially the gambling addict part. You're the one who lost their Bitcoin due to being a degen gambler, not me. I would feel sorry for you, but you made your own bed so it's best to lie in it, with or without your incessant rambling or BTC. Most of my analysis was based on statistical data, much less technical projections, something you clearly overlooked.

Do I seem vehement?  Excessive belief in TA could cause a Bitcoin death spiral.  One by one, TA bottoms fail:  The 200 WMA, the prior cycle top...  The failure is what causes loss of confidence.  Those who disbelieve TA are now the ones with the most confidence that Bitcoin is fine.  I am vehement, because one thing that can hurt Bitcoin is more bad predictions, which can be true only if lucky.  If unlucky, the result is another round of panic.  That is bad for Bitcoin.

Actually, I think I did a decent job at pointing out how the whole "death spiral" theory is relative nonsense. I'm sure there were many who thought Gold would drop to $100, $10, even $1 in the 80s, based on TA, once it's decade long bull market ended. Clearly, they were all wrong, because the fundamental inflationary aspect of Gold remained strong.. Without even realising it you are engaging in technical analysis; trying to prove there is a technical reason for a so-called "death spiral", and therefore completely ignoring the fundamentals. A death spiral means an asset dies, clues in the name, which therefore ignores it's fundamental value.

Admitting that TA is dead is healthy for Bitcoin.  To hell with all TA.  Vomit it out like rotten food.  Purge it from your system, and you will see that Bitcoin is fine.  Focus on the value fundamentals:  Highly competent developers, rock-solid reliable technology, huge long-term growth potential in mass-adoption for use as money.  When Bitcoin has that, who cares what magical TA line it breaks next?  Who cares?  Long-term fundamental value gives zero forks about the smashing of all predicted bottoms.

Yeh, it'd be good if you acknowledge this fundamental aspect and back down from your "death spiral" technical analysis theory tbh, it holds low validity as TA goes.

I laugh at TA, and I declare that Bitcoin is good as gold.  See my prior posts on gold’s worst bear market.

Good, hopefully you will stop losing money by over-leveraging yourself long in a bear market like a clown. Not going to look at your previous posts no, that's what the scrolling function is for.

[OgNasty]

Feels an awful lot like we're headed for a retest of the recent lows.  I'm looking for that massive volume spike and drop before I fomo in with a buy.  It looks to be coming though...  My guess, around 2am on Saturday or Sunday (PST) we'll see it as whoever is trying to liquidate people takes another shot.  The question is if we'll break the recent lows or not.  For me, I don't care if we do or not, but I would really like to see a 3 month high on volume when it happens.  That would signal that we've hit bottom in my opinion.  I don't think the market will move up in the short term until we see volume surpass that from May 11-12.  Even then, we're still on borrowed time until the gox coins hit the market.

[empowering]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542473062385389569?s=20&t=bZRKcQCPXEpVpolM09V6MQ

If get this right, this news is misleading.
They actually said the holdings should be capped:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/banks-bitcoin-holdings-should-be-capped-basel-committee-proposes/


If someone wanna read the full (I didn't)
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d533.pdf

Congrats to @BitcoinMagazine for sleazily distorting bearish news into bullish fake-news like any garden-variety shitcoin shill.

Based on my recent experiences arguing with nocoiners who declare BTC a “scam” and a “cult”, I observe that Bitcoin Magazine’s Reality Distortion Field is not good for Bitcoin.

Gachapin, don’t expect a shower of merits for an honest attention to correctness that most people do not want to hear.

Not sure it is bearish tbh.... one could say it is unwanted attention but not sold on it being bearish.

Only a mere heartbeat or two ago this sort of news would have been celebrated.

Also, have you considered it focuses on capital requirements... is there a scenario where this prevents fuckery from these institutions ?


Also, it has implications for stablecoins holdings by institutions too..... positive ones imo


Or no?


Rome was not built in a day....todays 1% is tomorrows 10%


Also... from my point of view, I was just sharing new newses.... as is custom.

[empowering]

Salutations Gentlebeings


jeez...sub $20k corn...what a blessing. I knew there had to be some positive news out there after a few days into hiking...I fell off a cliff and broke my leg. LOL. I am an idiot sometimes...

Anyways....been recovering this last month and a half....ankle is a bloody wreck..ripped most of the tendons and ligiments along with the fractures.....great.


the morning I left on vacation



3 days into Oregon and then there was the cliff...probably not 10 meters...but all of 5+   there was free fall involved...thats all I can say...


leg meets bottom of cliff...


recovering with foot soaking in a cold creek...with a solar powered 3" dredge into the ol' sluice box


as usual...things could be worse...


---------


the morning wall report


furiously stacking sats....and staying the course     the Holiday weekend will probably be volatile....would think that things might start perking up soonish after...

dyor

Muad'drin tia dar allende caba'drin rhiadem!  Lances at the ready...walk, trot then canter....rinse and repeat...the road is still long before us.


4h


D


12 of the last 14 weeks in the red....oof dah may...
W

stronghands

Ouch.


Looks nasty..... hope you mend up soon.


Never great when you are out in the sticks and you snap something...  were you out far?

[dragonvslinux]

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

As of the week of June 27th 2022. Using the MA Ribbon (Simple Moving Average) on the Weekly time-frame with intervals of 52 candles, starting with 52 (1 Year).

1 Year: $42,845
2 Year: $36,488
3 Year: $27,229
4 Year: $21,896
5 Year: $19,099
6 Year: $16,104
7 Year: $13,860
8 Year: $12,168
9 Year: $10,869
10 Year: $9787

I agree that no-one really knows how long this bear market will go on for and when it will end. Worst case, it could take an entire decade or two. But when it does come to price, without Bitcoin actually dying (which I think is very unlikely based on fundamentals), even a decade-long bear market imo would likely only yield $10K to $14K prices. Even if price consolidates between $10K and $20K for many years.

Of course we can't compare a decade long bull market in Bitcoin to a decade long bear market in Bitcoin, because the latter has never happened. But imo you can look elsewhere to see what happens when a decade long bull market comes to an end, based on what was previously the best inflation hedge. It generally just means decades of consolidation at worst, as opposed to some 90-99% fall in price.

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):

In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

this is actually GREAT TA, thanks. I also thought about gold's 2 decade bear, but I thought that we would enter a long bear from a much higher price (like 300K-1mil).

Based on Gold's price history in the mid 70s, as opposed to 80s, this could still very much be the case, even with price coming down to the current 8 Year MA of $12K.

In 1976 price bottomed out at the 8 Year MA, followed by 2 years of consolidation before making a new ATH, increasing by 700% from the lows

Although 8x from $12K would "only" be $96K, given Bitcoin's much higher volatility, then it could easily be your estimated price range imo.

A valid point about long bears being less 'vertical', too.

This was the main takeaway for me personally. I'd always considered a multi-decade bear market could happen at anytime, but had mistakenly thought this meant that price would drop to $1K, even $100, or something ridiculous like that. But as you see, based on Gold's 20 year bear market, this wasn't the case at all. It was time that was the enemy (or friend), not necessarily price if that makes sense.

Bottom line for me is many investors talk about long-term time-frames, but few I think are willing (or able) to consider multi-decade time frames.

[empowering]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

[death_wish]

nullc [2021-12-30]

Bitcoin's greatest vulnerability was and always is that it can't be any stronger than the people who use it. It's possible for the public to be just too dumb for Bitcoin.

With apologies to nullc for taking that out of the specific context of “what if Satoshi was really a scammer?” types of hypotheticals, it is one of my general concerns about Bitcoin.  Relevant below.

I laugh at TA, and I declare that Bitcoin is good as gold.  See my prior posts on gold’s worst bear market.

Good, hopefully you will stop losing money by over-leveraging yourself long in a bear market like a clown then. Not going to look at your previous posts no, that's what the scrolling function is for.

I think that you saw my prior posts just fine.  I started drawing an analogy to the gold market 11–12 days before I see you just did, in numerous posts here.  To the best of my knowledge, I originated that comparison in the context to this crash.  I was certainly the first to raise it in WO.

Credit where due.  Don’t pretend you didn’t see it.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

What about TA is astrology.  Stop believing in it.  You have the attitude of a gambling addict, who declares that his special variation of Martingale will really, really work this time, if the strategy is tweaked and the lucky rabbit’s foot is rubbed extra-vigorously.

You seem to be projecting your emotions here, especially the gambling addict part. You're the one who lost their Bitcoin due to being a degen gambler, not me. I would feel sorry for you, but you made your own bed so it's best to lie in it, with or without or incessant rambling or BTC. Most of my analysis was based on statistical data, much less technical projections, something you clearly overlooked.

Protip:  I also used TA.  That’s what got me wrecked, just as much as the minor detail that it was TA on leverage.

Your crude “analysis... based on statistical data” is not in the league of quantitative finance.  It is pure gambling based on using past performance to predict future results.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Do I seem vehement?  Excessive belief in TA could cause a Bitcoin death spiral.  One by one, TA bottoms fail:  The 200 WMA, the prior cycle top...  The failure is what causes loss of confidence.  Those who disbelieve TA are now the ones with the most confidence that Bitcoin is fine.  I am vehement, because one thing that can hurt Bitcoin is more bad predictions, which can be true only if lucky.  If unlucky, the result is another round of panic.  That is bad for Bitcoin.

Actually, I think I did a decent job at pointing out how the whole "death spiral" theory is relative nonsense. I'm sure there were many who thought Gold would drop to $100, $10, even $1 in the 80s, based on TA, once it's decade long bull market ended. Clearly, they were all wrong, because the fundamental inflationary aspect of Gold remained strong..

You don’t know the difference between inflation and deflation, yet you wish to opine on the market?

Without even realising it you are engaging in technical analysis; trying to prove there is a technical reason for a so-called "death spiral", and therefore completely ignoring the fundamentals. A death spiral means an asset dies, clues in the name, which therefore ignores it's fundamental value.

No.  My proposition of Bitcoin’s fundamental value is partly based on expectations of mass-adoption, on network effects, and on Bitcoin’s mindshare:  The Bitcoin brand.

BTC bulls tend to fixate on the supply side.  “Supply” is only one part of “supply and demand”; a hardcapped supply is meaningless, without demand.  My view of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects is generally optimistic about future demand, but I recognize that that demand could be threatened in various scenarios.

Every time someone draws a magical line on a chart and says “this will be the bottom”, that damages Bitcoin’s brand when BTC crashes through the line.  It is causes panic and loss of confidence.  That, itself, is damaging to Bitcoin’s value fundamentals.  Confidence is important to any currency.  Note well that the more credible “death spiral” theories (beyond dumb FUD) focus on scenarios where mass loss of confidence in a currency enters an accelerating feedback loop.

Here, my analogy to gold’s historical bear market cannot be overextended.  Bitcoin faces competition from new Bitcoin-like instruments, or in many cases what the public may wrongly perceive as Bitcoin-like instruments.  Gold does not have this type of competition.  Mass loss of confidence opens the way to competitors—not only from garden-variety shitcoins, but government-backed CBDCs or otherwise government-approved “crypto” that seeks to replace the concept behind Bitcoin.  Evil Hat(TM) likes that scenario.  And it is a scenario that fundamentally falls into the category of, “It’s possible for the public to be just too dumb for Bitcoin.”

See also my previous posts about how years ago, I urged slower growth so that Bitcoin could develop a sufficiently robust market from organic adoption before the challenges brought by institutional investment.  Yes, I will refer to my prior posts.  If you are an illiterate fool who proudly claims to scroll by the cogent presentation of excellent insights (but later rips them off), that is not my loss.

[dragonvslinux]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

If not 10 years of over-speculation to the upside, It could have been re-installed faith in fiat currencies, despite the fact they were still effectively worthless, but doesn't look that way.

The fact that the S&P made a new high in 1980 after an 8 year bear market can't be a coincidence though. Money better placed elsewhere? GOLD vs SPX back then:

[death_wish]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

Deep undercurrents surrounding sanctions on South Africa.  I have alluded to that several times, very subtly.  I have also said that I don’t want to discuss it here.

What is relevant here is that if powerful parties in international finance decided to suppress gold for political reasons, they can hold gold down for a very long time while pumping their central bank shitcoins.  Now, what about Bitcoin?

Edited to add:  The fate of nations oft hinges on gold politics.  Observe, for instance, that the cause of the Boer Wars was the discovery of gold in what was thus forcibly turned into Rhodesia.

[PokestarFan]

I hope bitcoin crashes to $0 and it dies a fiery death. I will consume all of the popcorn that is available in a 100-mile radius from where I live. It will be a glorious event.

[death_wish]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

If not 10 years of over-speculation to the upside, It could have been re-installed faith in fiat currencies, despite the fact they were still effectively worthless, but doesn't look that way.

The fact that the S&P made a new high in 1980 after an 8 year bear market can't be a coincidence though. Money better placed elsewhere? GOLD vs SPX back then:

You opine in total abject ignorance of all of the many political and economic happenings in the 1970s–80s, many of which affected the gold market in various directions.  You reduce it to searching for magical lines on a chart, which you declare “can’t be a coincidence”.

This is the problem with TA.

[empowering]

What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

If not 10 years of over-speculation to the upside, It could have been re-installed faith in fiat currencies, despite the fact they were still effectively worthless, but doesn't look that way.

The fact that the S&P made a new high in 1980 after an 8 year bear market can't be a coincidence though. Money better placed elsewhere? GOLD vs SPX back then:

Whaddya think about the London gold cartel and paper manipulation ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Anecdotal , however I find TA, historical analysis, quantitative analysis  which I mainly keep to myself, for myself, usually, to be very very useful, especially for shorter time frames ... like the monthly (SLUT) for example.

It is not a be all and end all though, and it is not ever meant to be, it is designed to give some statistical edge..... and must be combined with effective bank roll management.... AND effective RISK MANAGEMENT.

....and of course macro and fundamentals are also super useful.



Unless you consider them all, then you ain't doing it right by MY BOOK.


I mean.... ya should not be getting REKT, LEVERAGE or NO LEVERAGE , given effective analysis, bank roll management, AND risk management.....


Jus my two cents.


If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.

[death_wish]

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

I would rather put it like this:

You prefer to risk potentially losing all of your money’s value by holding money that’s really yours, money that is destined to change the world—money that will make you terrifically rich if it succeeds in making the world a better place, which it probably will in the long term.

You prefer that to letting a corrupt bank dictate to you what you can do with “your” so-called “money”, i.e. fundamentally worthless scrip that has been the biggest scam in all of history for the past half-century.  Arguably longer.  But let’s not even reach the point of discussing history before the Nixon Shock.

Can’t find it now searching my fast-growing post history, but I recall somewhere having observed this:

Bitcoin is an idea of such a nature that it is destined either to take over the world, or to die.  Either-or.

I know which side I want my money on.

It is still young.  Still small.  Short-term price movements are ultimately meaningless.

[DaRude]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

When people started talking about a death spiral in 2018 the bottom was in.

This is from December 3, 2018. It's by a University professor of finance "expert".

https://www.ccn.com/worthless-bitcoin-has-entered-death-spiral-finance-professor/

Silly professor

Only if there was some kind of automatic procedure to change the hardness of the puzzle every two weeks or so depending on the supply/demand for mining  

Lots of gamblers selling BTC, lots of people buying BTC meh world moves on. Fill up your bags and hunker down in about 638days all global miners will work for 10min for just BTC3.125 if my math is right about 50kg of gold is mined every 10min globally or about $3MM worth

[BobLawblaw]

I hope bitcoin crashes to $0 and it dies a fiery death. I will consume all of the popcorn that is available in a 100-mile radius from where I live. It will be a glorious event.

I hope it crashes to $0.01 tomorrow, so I can buy everything the market throws at me.

[death_wish]

I hope bitcoin crashes to $0 and it dies a fiery death. I will consume all of the popcorn that is available in a 100-mile radius from where I live. It will be a glorious event.

I hope it crashes to $0.01 tomorrow, so I can buy everything the market throws at me.

I don’t begrudge PokestarFan the type of Hopium desperately needed by jealous nocoiners.  (Have fun coping when the dip is over.)

I hate him for making me send merit to Bob.  (Bob, you owe me a new keyboard; coffee and keyboards do not mix with sudden laughter.)

[dragonvslinux]

I laugh at TA, and I declare that Bitcoin is good as gold.  See my prior posts on gold’s worst bear market.

Good, hopefully you will stop losing money by over-leveraging yourself long in a bear market like a clown then. Not going to look at your previous posts no, that's what the scrolling function is for.

I think that you saw my prior posts just fine.  I started drawing an analogy to the gold market 11–12 days before I see you just did, in numerous posts here.  To the best of my knowledge, I originated that comparison in the context to this crash.  I was certainly the first to raise it in WO.

Credit where due.  Don’t pretend you didn’t see it.

Clearly you think most people read all your posts, clearly you are very wrong as per usual. I would have you on ignore if it weren't for JJG replying to you with massive block quotes which would make it ineffective. If I could ignore you and anyone who respond to you (in this case myself included, apologies WO folk), I would very happily do so.  Congratulations to you if you were the first to raise the alarm though, seriously.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

What about TA is astrology.  Stop believing in it.  You have the attitude of a gambling addict, who declares that his special variation of Martingale will really, really work this time, if the strategy is tweaked and the lucky rabbit’s foot is rubbed extra-vigorously.

You seem to be projecting your emotions here, especially the gambling addict part. You're the one who lost their Bitcoin due to being a degen gambler, not me. I would feel sorry for you, but you made your own bed so it's best to lie in it, with or without or incessant rambling or BTC. Most of my analysis was based on statistical data, much less technical projections, something you clearly overlooked.

Protip:  I also used TA.  That’s what got me wrecked, just as much as the minor detail that it was TA on leverage.

Oh dear, sounds you used TA as a form of disciple, the crystal ball of all your answers, n00b mistake my non-friend. News flash: TA are theories, not outright guarantees. You got rekt because of poor risk management, nothing else. Any decent analyst knows they only need to be right 50% of the time to double their money, based on using good risk reward ratios such as 4:1.

TA didn't get you rekt, you got yourself rekt. Take some responsibility ffs. If you'd only bet 10% of your trading account, you'd have only lost 10% and you wouldn't have been rekt  

• But by the sound of it, you're trading account wasn't 10% of your stash, but 100%.
• Your trade wasn't 10% of your account, but 100% (like a degen)
• You could of lost 1% but instead you decided to lose upto 100%

Your crude “analysis... based on statistical data” is not in the league of quantitative finance.  It is pure gambling based on using past performance to predict future results.  Past performance does not guarantee future results..

Oh dear, you're making the same mistake over and over again it seems, thinking that TA guarantees future results. Theories don't guarantee anything, you have to use your own risk/reward analysis without forgetting good risk management.  If as a degen gambler (which you are) you aren't capable of this, then it's best to just stay away from this. Trading isn't for everyone, especially degens like you it seems.

Do I seem vehement?  Excessive belief in TA could cause a Bitcoin death spiral.  One by one, TA bottoms fail:  The 200 WMA, the prior cycle top...  The failure is what causes loss of confidence.  Those who disbelieve TA are now the ones with the most confidence that Bitcoin is fine.  I am vehement, because one thing that can hurt Bitcoin is more bad predictions, which can be true only if lucky.  If unlucky, the result is another round of panic.  That is bad for Bitcoin.

Actually, I think I did a decent job at pointing out how the whole "death spiral" theory is relative nonsense. I'm sure there were many who thought Gold would drop to $100, $10, even $1 in the 80s, based on TA, once it's decade long bull market ended. Clearly, they were all wrong, because the fundamental inflationary aspect of Gold remained strong..

You don’t know the difference between inflation and deflation, yet you wish to opine on the market?

Seriously? Next you'll be telling me Bitcoin is deflationary when it clearly is inflationary (at present). DYOR

I assume you're confusing rate of inflation with inflation here, it's a common mistake it seems.

Without even realising it you are engaging in technical analysis; trying to prove there is a technical reason for a so-called "death spiral", and therefore completely ignoring the fundamentals. A death spiral means an asset dies, clues in the name, which therefore ignores it's fundamental value.

No.  My proposition of Bitcoin’s fundamental value is partly based on expectations of mass-adoption, on network effects, and on Bitcoin’s mindshare:  The Bitcoin brand.

BTC bulls tend to fixate on the supply side.  “Supply” is only one part of “supply and demand”; a hardcapped supply is meaningless, without demand.  My view of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects is generally optimistic about future demand, but I recognize that that demand could be threatened in various scenarios.

Every time someone draws a magical line on a chart and says “this will be the bottom”, that damages Bitcoin’s brand when BTC crashes through the line.  It is causes panic and loss of confidence.  That, itself, is damaging to Bitcoin’s value fundamentals.  Confidence is important to any currency.  Note well that the more credible “death spiral” theories (beyond dumb FUD) focus on scenarios where mass loss of confidence in a currency enters an accelerating feedback loop.

Here, my analogy to gold’s historical bear market cannot be overextended.  Bitcoin faces competition from new Bitcoin-like instruments, or in many cases what the public may wrongly perceive as Bitcoin-like instruments.  Gold does not have this type of competition.  Mass loss of confidence opens the way to competitors—not only from garden-variety shitcoins, but government-backed CBDCs or otherwise government-approved “crypto” that seeks to replace the concept behind Bitcoin.  Evil Hat(TM) likes that scenario.  And it is a scenario that fundamentally falls into the category of, “It’s possible for the public to be just too dumb for Bitcoin.”

See also my previous posts about how years ago, I urged slower growth so that Bitcoin could develop a sufficiently robust market from organic adoption before the challenges brought by institutional investment.  Yes, I will refer to my prior posts.  If you are an illiterate fool who proudly claims to scroll by the cogent presentation of excellent insights (but later rips them off), that is not my loss.

Yawn. TL:DR seriously.