I see a pyramid pattern. It rises to the top, and now it falls to the bottom. This is science. We need to trust science.

The halving will cut the difficulty by half, thus making mining more easy to miners. This, however, will make them cut the electricity costs by half, which will make the price fall to 1/4 of current cost (half doubled = 1/4). The current cost is $8k, so the price will be cut to $4k after the halving of the difficulty, then $2k after the halving of electricity costs. There is a third factor which is the derivatives casino, which will cut the price by half again, thus sub-1000 levels will be the price six months after halving.

Scams to lure poor bears and made they lose their money.

Yes, it will cut bitcoin cost of production in half.

Today the cost to make one bitcoin is $8k. And the standard market price is $6k. The bottom is $3k.
After the halving, the cost will be $4k. And the standard market price will be $3k. The bottom will be $1.5k.

For this reason, many miners will stop their operations, as it will cost less to make a single coin. This means less profit and less motivation to continue.
I trust the medical establishment and vaccines will be a solution for the current financial crisis. After the vaccine everything will flourish again.

$6.5k right now. This is half of the 0.618 level in the fibo sequence. No, this is not a recovery, its just another bull trap. And its moving slow, as always did during this long bear market.

Remember the fibo sequence was extensively used during the bull market, and now is ignored. Why? Because anyone with half a brain can use it to check whether bitcoin is recovering or not, and at the moment, its not.

I agree with ChiNgadOr and that's why I'm now a supporter of BSV.

The hodlers cult wants to delude people. Just look at their thread, the WO thread, where their clique displays their luxuries, like cars, yatchs, hookers, expensive restaurants, etc. They want to fool uninformed people to buy bitcoin and expect those things will appear magically if they hold for some years. All lies.

The clique is made of earlier adopters, who started to invest when bitcoin was still a currency for buying Magic the Gathering cards. That is, it is a ponzi scheme, and even people who adopted it post-2013 bubble (like me) dont have all those luxuries they try to sell to people. That's one of the reasons bitcoin is going to three digits: investors dont want to put money into it after bitcoin's recent failure to shield them from a financial crisis, caused by a fake "pandemic".

I just feel sorry for the miners, developers, etc, who are really involved with several different projects, both on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and dont need to show off cars, yatchs, hookers, etc. These guys are having their work being destroyed, corroded by the inside, by bad marketeers, who happens to gamble with paper speculation, to bring bitcoin down and the entire crypto sector with it.

These marketeers appeals to the most stupid side of the human brain, the one which controls consumerist impulses, and pack it together with empty promises of "worldwide adoption", while at same time preaching "freedom" for paper speculation to quietly infiltrate and destroy it. They gamble into it, otherwise they would not defend it. To say Bakkt and other financial devices will bring some good to bitcoin is to treat bitcoin (and all the other cryptocurrencies) as simple ponzi schemes. Turns out it becomes like that, when all you have is a small clique, a very closed club, benefiting from it, at the expense of all the others, who actually believed on the potential of those projects. That's why this bear market is permanent, and bitcoin will dump to the bottom of $0.85 in 2028.

We might also be losing the opportunity of losing money too. Lets say you buy now, and in three days it plunges again.
Much better to hold what you have (since the price is too low to sell, miners are spending $8k to manufacture one bitcoin at the moment) and only buy in sub-1000s levels, than be greedy and lose money afterwards.

At least Trump knows the virus is a HOAX and maybe this circus is going to end sooner than we expect.

Besides, there are other products to invest too, including other cryptocurrencies, since bitcoin proved to be useless against financial crisis in the fiat system, going lower than any other asset.

Here how it goes. 5 waves, the second wave is higher than the fourth, but the first is lower than the third. The fourth wave didn't go up above the 0.618 (that is, $12k) in the fibo sequence, which denied a recovery for bitcoin.

This means the fifth and last wave will be lower than the first, that is, sub-2000 levels. Three digits is very likely to happen. Prepare your shopping carts.

Cryptocurrency price is coming back...



...to $3k.

This is the second wave of the COVID-19.
$5.8k in GDAX right now.

There are at the moment two long-term predictions for bitcoin, each one using a different model.

One shows the price of $0.85 for march 2028, and another of $0.62 for november 2036. These are the only two bottoms I know about, and they will last for more than 300 years each. Both will come with a default of the fiat system, that is, all the debts will be cancelled, in exchange for blood: a world war, a real pandemic, or some big event which will kill millions of people. In this situation, people will stock supplies, and both bitcoin and cash will suffer from it.

There are also two chances to dump bitcoin without too much loss or with a small profit (if you were in the stupid DCA "strategy" like I was some months ago), one for each model: $10k in 2026, and $8k in 2029. You can also buy bitcoin at $700 at the end of this year and sell at $2.5k when sgbett prediction hits in 2021, thus covering losses from anything you bought at a higher price.

But I would not sell anything right now. Better to wait for the sub-$1000 to hit, buy with spare money, then sell with 100% profit (at around $2k) and only then sell what you bought under DCA (that is, what you bought above 6-9k, before this recent dump).

For example, with a price of $1000, you can buy 6 pieces of bitcoin if you spend $6k, whereas now you can buy only one (and which you will have to hold for 800 years if you want to take some profit from it). Then you sell them at $2k, and uses the $6k you profited to cover losses from DCA (which was bought above 6-9k, much more expensive and with bigger losses after the derivatives-backed dump).

This is much more safe and it might protect you from any reversal, as we dont know how the fiat sharks are operating. They might read this and decide to pump just to invalidate these predictions. They can print fiat money indefinitely and pump whatever asset they want, just to dump it later.

Actually, the price would go up with the presence of the virus, as governments would be printing more money, thus causing inflation. This would compensate with bitcoin, which was a deflationary asset.

But since now bitcoin is part of the legacy system, and just another asset for paper speculation, it will go down together with it, thus being useless against financial crisis. So it will only recover when the fiat system recovers, that is, when the "virus" go away.

I'm not sure if BTC is outside of government, or at least, of the financial system built around the government. Remember that nation-states are operating together in this "pandemic crisis".

If there is still some chance BTC can be outside of the fiat system (lets say, in the case the exchanges gang together and build a cartel, thus preventing the liquidations through circuit breakers), then we can see a bank run making its price go up.

Otherwise, governments will just liquidate their BTC through the derivatives markets, and print more fiat money to rebuy it lower. They can do this indefinitely, with the bless from the bishops of the hodlers cult, until bitcoin dies in 2028 at the price of $0.85.

In any case, totalitarianism is the end result of the coronacircus: https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/21/coronavirus-crackdown-beware-the-new-normal/

9k? What have you been drinking? Its 6k right now. This is the resistance. 6k. The stock market is recovering more than crypto. Everything is recovering faster than bitcoin. Its over.

The halving will not impact bitcoin this time, as bitcoin was captured by paper speculation, and is now just another asset in their big casino, like gold and silver. It was a currency, then a store of value, and now is only for speculation. Its quite sad to see it ending like this. And worse, none of the other crypto "currencies" can be used in its place, as the entire system was built around it.

Now every time a crisis happens within fiat systems, bitcoin will be the first to go down, and it will go lower than anything else. Whereas when there is a recovery in the fiat system, bitcoin will go up slower and rise less than the other assets, as the recent recovery from the crashes showed up. Really, 6k? You must be kiding me, this is no recovery and it just proves what I said once more.

The WO thread is a clique. There is nothing of value to see there.

Sgbett will win this one.
He called the top, called the bottom, and has been right since then.
Like him or not, we need to admit, the guy is good at what he do.

We are going to see $700 at the end of this year.
Then bitcoin will recover and it will be at the 2000s at the time sgbett predicted.
I'm not buying anything. The asset has proven its worthless against crisis in the fiat system.
I will only buy in the three-digits area and will sell when it reaches sgbett's price.

Holding is a thing of the past, since bitcoin failed its premises.

I'm convinced we are. I have been holding for five years and didnt have all this profit the hodlers cult talk about.

If I had sold, however, would have seem some profit.

The sad thing is that I will need to hold for five more years until bitcoin is able to breach 10k again. Right now we are going to sub-1000s levels.

This looks more like a nickname for another ghost "analyst", which nobody have heard about before. Just another attempt from the hodlers cult to scam you into buying, when the price is pointing to $1000 and you can scoop out six times more coins later.

Covid-19 second wave is coming. Prepare for the dump. Did you take your vaccine already?

The second wave of COVID-19 is coming, and with it, a new series of derivatives liquidations which will bring bitcoin to sub-1000s levels. Unless, of course, the exchanges are already doing something to stop it.

Hopefully they come to an agreement that "freedom" is bad for bitcoin and should de purged. Only the cartelization of bitcoin will save this market, doomed by paper speculation and its nefarious "hodl cult", which want you to hold a empty bag while they cash in. Dont let them fool you, 6k is no recovery.

Well, I didnt said that bitcoin is broken, only that it failed its purpose. The market, however, is broken, as it is tainted by paper speculation, and the brainwashing of the hodler cult will let things as it is, confirming the eternal bear trend.

Deflation is a possibility, because services, businesses, etc, were all cut down. This will lead to prices of products tanking, with the exception of food. Prices of food will increase as farms will also be shut down, and this will hold deflation for some time.

The debts, however, might result in a default, as you said. This will cause the dollar collapse, which could prompt governments to adopt bitcoin. But since bitcoin is following the fiat market, its more likely they will suck its resources first, leaving it in a bear market for many years, postponing this default. That is why I put a long period before we see 10k again.

ATH will be dependent on governments turning in to bitcoin. However, they could create their own cryptocurrency, as they have been studying blockchain for many years. This is the most likely scenario, as they will have full control of this new cryptocurrency, and people will adopt it out of desperation (there will be no food, no services, etc).

This recent market crash was all about centralization of finance in the hands of a few speculators, who bought the bonds from key companies. So its likely they will release a centralized cryptocurrency. Then, they kill the dollar, default all the debt, and bitcoin will be a relic from the past, destroyed by constant liquidations. I believe they will also release two or three new pandemics during this time, to bring more panic.