What rally?

Only toxic, evil people linked to the fiat system will find it funny to see bitcoin fail.

So no, I dont find any entertainment on it.

I will only believe it when I see 12k, and it will need to hold this price for some weeks, not just touch it.

We will be lucky if it do.

And if it happens, it will be after the halving.

That's true. Just one whale can move the market at will, because of the huge disparity in the distribution. Also the market is very small and there are exchanges with only 100btc in circulation, easy targets for a single whale.

What would you propose to prevent such manipulation? Self-regulation by the exchanges themselves would not work, since some of them would choose to not have any, to attract more customers, and soon the sheep would flock there, causing losses for the other exchanges... I dont see any other solution than to have the State boot in the exchange's faces, allowing no more than 1% rises and drops per day, since the price manipulation comes from these highly centralized exchanges.

Lets face the fact that bitcoin failed completely at decentralization, since, like you have stated and its a known fact, most addresses are in the hands of a few, and the situation will only get worse, as at any dump most of those buying are themselves, accumulating more and more. State intervention will be inevitable in the long run, and innocent people might suffer from it, since State bureaucrats are not known for being technologically knowledgeable. So what do you propose? The scenario seems very dystopian for a solution that might be good for all.

Yes, its clear its going to visit 5k or even lower. In fact, it can go back to the 3-4k range.

I believe we will have a big bear trap before it takes off. For now, we are only having bull traps, with the usual fake rise and fake calls for FOMO.

Bitcoin price is being heavily manipulated. I dont trust even my own TA anymore. All those theories about waves, cycles and stuff are useless if we face the fact that the crypto market have the nature of a ponzi scheme. Those who adopted it earlier are making the calls, in the same way big speculators do with the stock market.

FA was also put into question after I saw the StF calculation being manipulated again. The StF line pointed to 100k at the first half of 2020, the new version points to 2021, proving that even the log scale is based on faith, disguised as "science".

We are at the mercy of the whales and they will decide if bitcoin will replace fiat one day. For now, I believe it wont.

I have started doubting the StF metric when I saw it being repurposed for the current price. This happened more than once.

Just to show a example, a quick search on google returned this post from 2019: https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1129688628593143809
You can see the StF line skyrocketing to near 100k right on the first half of 2020.

Now, its 2020 and the curve was readjusted, to look like its still valid. The curve is stretched to give the impression the movement is balanced and will lead the price to 100k, but its always postponed when the price stagnates. In the current version, the StF line postponed 100k for 2021.

FOMO only after it breaks 10k. Until then, its just another sucker's rally.

You see green on one day, then you see red in the next three days.
So how can you say the price is not going down? Even if you dont want it, the market is showing otherwise, and analysis should be based on facts, not on what you want.
If it was by me, bitcoin would be 50k already, but its not, because we are in a staggering bear market, which is posed to last 3-4 years at the minimum.
The market is manipulated. Bitcoin technology is great, but the market have all the characteristics of a ponzi scheme, and the price is determined by the few whales who happened to hold since the early days.

So lets be real here. Every day I see lower highs, so its clear the price is going to dump hard. Right now is pointing to 3k, and can go as low as three digits if no new money comes in. Very possible to happen.
Also read the opinions of sgbear, who is a authority in market prediction. He called the top, and predicted 2k by 2021. For this reason, I'm not buying until we see the bottom.
DCA? Useless strategy, when you know the price is going to dump hard. Just hold your money until we see 2k by 2021, but it can go even lower than that. I believe we are going to see 1k before it, and 2k will be a recovery. It will take 5-8 years for bitcoin to go back to the previous ATH. The bear market is endless. That's why it is a bear market. Get used to it, because the only way is down.

My guess is $5050-$5100.

We should be at least 60% of the ATH to be out of the bear market. Price should stay there for at least six months, but in fact it just stayed there for some weeks. This is not a true recovery of the price. What we had in 2019 were a series of bull traps, which confirmed we are still in a bear market.

Bitcoin is still in a bear market after two years, and had some sideways movement during the last year.
Its true the bottom is not in, but if you buy small amounts, and plan for a long period, its not a bad idea to buy now.

Remember that we are in halving year, and even if the cycle got stretched, the probability of a reversal will grow larger as time passes. So buy it now or regret later.
For now, the price is still pointing to $3500, but any sudden bearish movement could trigger a reversal.

Ok. This chart shows bitcoin going to $3500 by 25 june 2020:



However, the bear movement is trying to break the lower red line in the chart, which could cause a reversal.
The green line shows where this reversal could possibly happen.
The faster bitcoin price falls, the more likely to have a reversal on the current trend.

Still pointing to $3500.

A notícia está falando sobre DARFs, que são usadas por quem paga os impostos. Impostos são cobrados quando o valor movimentado é acima de R$30 mil. Se o usuário movimenta R$100 mil e declara só metade disso, ele paga uma multa.

Mas se você está com medo, venda suas criptos. Não faz bem pra saúde viver com este medo.

They will have to sell, to pay mining costs.
The exchanges are to blame for this. If they had a consensus in putting limits to the price, such dumps would not happen.

The worst it can happen now its governments stepping in to stop the manipulation, and putting several regulations which would cripple the market even more. People love to go to extremes, so its wild west on one side, and a statist dystopia on the other.

By the looks of it, we will have a replay of the "despair" phase on the classical cycle chart. This will confirm the theory of the four-year cycle is not valid at all, and each cycle would need to be stretched.

Yes. Like I posted two days ago, we are going back to 3k levels.
Earlier on I believed the price would never return there, but after several weeks of lower highs, its evident the price will dump to that level again.

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

But we are in a bear market. Bitcoin price is pointing towards $3500.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Bear market will not go until 2022, it will go forever. At least, for people like you and the OP. As soon as his bottom is hit, he will make a two-digit prediction for 2100.

The problem is not the price, its the time.

If you stretch it too much, bitcoin will fail for its initial purpose, which was as a replacement for gold and fiat currencies.
Fiat currencies were based on gold before. So the idea would be that bitcoin, replacing gold, would become the base for a new global currency. For this, it needs to grow in value.

Value is fundamental to money. Bitcoin need to have at least the same marketcap of gold, which implies a high value.

Bitcoin have 10 years. A six-year cycle already covers more than half of its current age. When it reaches 20 years, then you can talk about long bear markets.