Me too. I didn't go above 15% initial exposure. And if the price rockets, I will not lose, since I didnt sold it.

Here's why I'm not selling it: https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=4730&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12&MiningPoolFee=1

The current price of one bitcoin is 15k.

Yes, the price will probably fall to around 4800, maybe by the middle of the next month.

There are people talking about 3200 and 2500. It might be possible, but I doubt it could last for more than some hours. I think many investors are waiting to buy, and will fill in when we dive below 5k. Its a game of patience.

It was in December. It was right before Christmas.

I think we are going straight to 4.8k, but I'm still not sure if I should buy or not. I still think we will reach the 3000's area before August.

Really, do you believe in exchange hacks?

Finally the prodigious son to home returns.

$3500? This is too much, duck. It will go to $450, according to Elliot Wave Theory, the favorite TA of the permabears.

I dont see anything sad here. He just lost his credibility, like McAfee already has.

Actually, this is the best post in this thread, in the last two weeks.

Actually, there's no reason, because every stock market is irrational, and that is what bitcoin is right now: a stock market.

We just speculate about reasons, trying to point to conspiracies and specific FUDs, to feel more comfortable about the dire situation we find ourselves in. Its just standard human behaviour.

Centralized exchanges should be a thing of the past already.

We need blockchained exchanges, that we can store in our computers in a P2P format. This way, nobody will hack it. Although I doubt there are hackings in these exchanges, it always looks like a inside job.

Also, KYC is the cancer of centralized exchanges. Sooner or later, only bankers will be able to deal in these exchanges. And there's a thing I noted, about KYC: the more strict the exchange is, the higher is the probability of being "hacked".

I have. Everytime it goes up, I feel its a bull trap, and I dont buy. Some hours later, the trap is confirmed. This happened several times already.

Bitcoin is not a bubble. What happened is that big money had entered the crypto markets. Contrary to what some elitists say, the presence of big money is not good for the average Joe, as it will try to get him out of the market, buying heavy amounts of crypto and then dumping it hard, to force the average Joe to sell. They did it with the stock market and precious metals, thats why such markets are dominated by institutions. In the long run, this will kill bitcoin as a currency, and it will turn to be just another financial instrument under the control of the banks. Later on, governments might use the blockchain technology to have their own national cryptocurrencies.

The only way to solve this problem, is to encode exchanges in blockchains, imposing limits for lows at mining costs. Since KYC will only get worse, sooner or later only the bankers will be able to deal in centralized exchanges. With a parallel market in decentralized exchanges, we will be able to see bitcoin matching the mining costs, and going higher from there.

By the start of the year, bitcoin had three chances to recover: May, August and October.

May already passed, so the price can reach 4888 until the end of July, as some have predicted. If dont recover in August, then the price can go to 2000 by the end of September, and if dont recover in October, it can fall to around 500, having a new chance to recover in May 2019. In case of recovery, it can reach from 12k to 86k in December.

Its quite simple.

When futures got announced, in October last year, institutional funds, which were to place bets on it, bought massive ammounts of bitcoin. Thats why the price rose in late October and early November. When CME had opened in December, they placed their bets, some in longs, others in shorts. The short ones probably had bought more coins than their adversaries, and used the ensuing panic to drive the price down. Since CME pay with leverage, they bet more than they had bought in bitcoin, and this is why some hedge funds had aborted their bitcoin operations this year, those were the ones who got long in futures, and lose their bets.

I explained this before, more than one time, and still people say its a conspiracy theory. Bitcoin is now costing 15k to mine, whereas its price is going down to 1/5 of it. Big mining companies are probably dumping their coins to cover their expenses, and small mining companies will go bankrupt.

This is the "legitimacy" that people so much wanted. And adoption, now, is very far, as the poor are the most hit by this bear market. You cant say to a poor man to invest only 15% of his holdings, or not invest more than he can afford to lose, when he have so few money to even make a difference. He will probably put most of his savings into it. There was already one suicide reported in South Korea, and many more might have killed themselves over it.

$4800 seems the most likely target. Anything above it may lead to bull traps.

Best analysis at the moment. This bear market is a replay of 2013-2015.

$4800 is a good entry point.

This was confirmed months ago. Nothing changed.

We can only speculate about it. August and October seems more likely to see a recovery. If not, then only next year.

True, but he is very old, and the drug is damaging his brain.

Its a possibility.

https://blog.goodaudience.com/bitcoin-futures-and-the-ghost-of-gold-81418864c961

But I dont discard bitcoin going below 6k until August.