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1801  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 11, 2022, 06:26:47 PM
Interview with volunteer Adrien Bocquet (in French), who recently returned from Ukraine and talks about a lot of interesting things, including the re-enactment in Bucha, filmed by American cameramen and about the war crimes of the Azov Nazis.

Quote
Azov fighters are everywhere. With neo-Nazi stripes. It shocks me that Europe is supplying weapons to neo-Nazis. On their uniforms, SS symbols are embroidered everywhere. Not only do they not hide their views. They advertise them. I worked with these people and treated them. They openly say that they are ready to destroy blacks and Jews.
Being there, there was nothing I could do. Just watch and make videos. I have this footage and will use it as evidence of Ukraine's crimes.
I witnessed how the Ukrainian military shot through the knees of captured Russian soldiers and shot in the head higher-ranking officers.
I have personally seen American cameramen making fake footage from the scene of the events, staging staging.
All destroyed civilian buildings, given out by Ukraine for bombardment of civilians, are nothing more than the result of inaccurate shooting by Ukrainians at military facilities.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine hide ammunition in residential buildings at night, without even informing the residents. This is called using people as a shield.
Bucha is a staging. The bodies of the victims were moved from other places and deliberately placed in such a way as to produce a shocking footage.
1802  Economy / Economics / Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April on: May 11, 2022, 05:26:40 PM
Europe has frozen Russian money and is trying to steal it. This is a big mistake and it will have consequences. I think Putin will ban the export of natural gas to Germany in May (for the nationalization of Gazprom-Germany assets and for trying to pay Gazprom for gas with Gazprom's own money) and prohibit the reversal of gas to all importers in Europe who agree to buy Russian gas for rubles. "Liver Sausage" Scholz can already pack his suitcase and get ready to retire.
Well, the Russian government has approved a list of legal entities against which retaliatory sanctions will be applied. There are 31 companies on the list, among them EuRoPol GAZ S.A. - the owner of the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and the German subsidiaries of Gazprom. I don't know how Germany is now going to buy and physically receive gas from Russia, even if it really wants to.

I think Germany will have to learn to live without Russian gas (or urgently reanimate Nord Stream 2, and even this is not a fact that will help).
1803  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 11, 2022, 02:16:36 PM
Europe froze Russia's money, which she paid for gas supplies, that is, Europe actually received gas from Russia for free.
Last I heard it was a total of $5 billion Russian assets that were seized in which case Russia responded by seizing $500 billion Western investment in their country so by your logic EU is paying 100x for the gas.
About $300 billion of reserves of the Bank of Russia in dollars and euros have been frozen, not counting the arrested private accounts, real estate and yachts. Of course, much less is confiscated, simply because it is more difficult to confiscate than to freeze, in many countries there is not even a legal basis for the confiscation of frozen assets, new laws need to be introduced or even amendments to the Constitution (as in Japan, for example).
1804  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 11, 2022, 02:12:25 PM
Well, what do you want - Russia, they can’t even make a website normally Smiley
Above is another link, working, but I advise you to independently study the topic "Moans from Russia with a request to cancel very useful sanctions" Smiley

The "fun" of this topic is that in Russia Putin and other "patriots" heroically talk nonsense about "ridiculous sanctions" and "benefit for the economy", but as soon as they find themselves in a normal world, groans immediately begin - well, why sanctions, oh here covid, oh there is diarrhea, oh everyone is suffering, let's take it off and we also really need to take it off, but why am I right away? Smiley As always, the classic cognitive dissonance of views and opinions, in Russian ...
Well, where are the requests or pleas for the lifting of sanctions? The link is simply a statement of the fact that economic sanctions do not achieve their goals for which they were introduced. Crimea is still Russian, the operation in Ukraine is still ongoing, the sanctions have essentially changed nothing. Unless they had to feed pigs with Polish apples after Russian counter-sanctions in the fall of 2014.

I'll tell you more, economic sanctions are of great benefit to Russia. Russia until 2014 was a major importer of food, and then became a major exporter. Now the US and Europe are voluntarily leaving the developed markets with huge losses, and new players are coming in their place.
1805  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 11, 2022, 07:58:17 AM
Smiley))))))
What do you really not like? I even allow you to write a slander to the bounty manager, and write a libel that I have a firm position regarding a country that violates moral and ethical standards, is the center and sponsor of world terrorism, and is waging a terrorist war in my country, destroying, raping thousands of civilians ! Come on, heroically convey! Smiley But the truth and reality will not change from this, even though you call the facts a lie...
Links about the groans of Lavrov and Putin about the need to lift sanctions - look for yourself, strain at least a little, work with information from reality at least a little, it will only benefit. It will be a little more difficult than copy-pasting propaganda nonsense and passing off fantasies as truth.

Offhand - here is a link where the "great helmsman of Muscovy" hides behind covid and begs to lift sanctions Smiley
https://rg.ru/2020/03/26/putin-prizval-cancel-sankcii-v-otnoshenii-postradavshih-ot-covid-19-stran.html

PS And a request - if you are used to throwing words into the wind - proof that I am spreading lies? Smiley

PS and don't forget to write a complaint to "Sportlotto" out of the soviet habit Smiley))
Lots of empty words and a broken link with a 404 error. Grin
1806  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 11, 2022, 07:23:14 AM
1. Is the Russian economy self-sufficient or import-dependent?
2. Import-dependent economy, forced to buy something from exporters, what currency should be calculated?
3. And if everyone pays her for the main product exported by Russia, in rubles - where will Russia take the currency to pay for imports? Smiley
1. Apart from one or two countries every one else has an import-dependent economy. The ongoing conflict and its effects on all economies (excluding a handful) proves that.
2&3. Depends on the trading parties. The world has also been moving away from US dollar and SWIFT. For example Russian trades with India and China have been mostly conducted using other currencies including Ruble, and they went fully Ruble after the war started. Or for example Arabs started selling their oil to China using CNY and dumped USD.

Besides, anybody who refused to export to Russia or export using Ruble was immediately replaced by a competitor. For example I heard that imports of detergents and cleaners from Germany, Italy and Sweden were stopped and we immediately too over that market. We don't use SWIFT either. Wink
I think that the West was surprised by the calm reaction of the Russian banking system to the SWIFT disconnection (although it seems to be presented as an economic nuclear bomb). It turned out that the banking system of Russia is perhaps the most progressive in the world, without problems with legacy, mainframes, punched cards and cobols - flexible, manageable and easily customizable.

OK, Germany cannot agree with Qatar on the supply of liquefied natural gas. Qatar does not want to increase production
Gas production does not have a switch that you can flip and magically increase the production. There are a lot of limits and it would take them years to start new facilities and start extracting more gas. Not to mention that their supplies are still not enough to cover a small portion of what Germany needs.
But the gas pipeline has a valve that can be easily closed. Of course, Qatar already has buyers for the entire volume of liquefied gas and investments are needed to increase gas production. But it also needs the political will to do so. Europe froze Russia's money, which she paid for gas supplies, that is, Europe actually received gas from Russia for free. Plus, Europe has very strict antitrust laws, and Gazprom has already been subject to its penalties, in particular, initially the contracts included a ban on the resale of Russian gas, on the abolition of which Germany is now making good money by supplying gas in reverse to Poland. It will be very difficult for Europe to find gas suppliers other than Russia, so it will have to save a lot and maybe even choose between production and heating of residential buildings next winter.
1807  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 11, 2022, 03:19:11 AM
Germany doesn't have an agreement with Qatar but there is another player that you haven't accounted for. US going to apply pressure on the oils cartel with NOPEC bill that allows US to sue the oil cartel or its members, force them to increase their oil production or risk of their assets frozen in US banks or no business with US's entities. If those cartel doesn't like it, they can open up a shooting war with US which I'm sure US will be happier to have more oil country under their control.
This has nothing to do with gas supplies to Europe. However, the best the US can do about the oil shortage is to increase its own production or spend strategic reserves. Attempts to pressure the cartel are ridiculous. Even Brazil said "no" to the US request to increase oil production, arguing that it was a matter of business strategy, not diplomacy and political speculation.
1808  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 10, 2022, 04:13:49 PM
Firstly, not the EU but Germany! Secondly, the main problem that is being discussed now is the term of the contract. Qatar wants 20 years. And Germany has already launched a “farewell to Russian gas, oil and coal” program as part of a program to reduce emissions into the atmosphere, and according to the approved plan, Germany should reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 88 percent by 2040. This means that gas purchases should also be reduced until 2040, and not only in Russia. And 2040-2022 = 18, but not 20 years, do you get the point? I'm sure the issue will be resolved. The question remains unresolved - where will Russia put its gas, oil, coal, which no one needs?! Smiley
OK, Germany cannot agree with Qatar on the supply of liquefied natural gas. Qatar does not want to increase production for the sake of a country that is going to reduce its gas consumption in the long term. Qatar also fears that its profits from gas supplies to Germany will be nullified by European antitrust law. Qatar also does not want the gas it supplies to be resold to other European countries. There are several reasons, but the result is the same - Germany does not have an agreement with Qatar on gas supplies.
1809  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 10, 2022, 01:30:46 PM
Is this part of the parade?
The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

No, I meant the one in Kyiv.  The one that would be naive and foolish to think wouldn't happen.  Why didn't they have one there?  That's rhetorical, of course.  The reason is because the Russian military lost that battle.  I'm just curious how much you're willing to twist yourself to not admit it.  It's tough to deflect such an obvious black and white situation. 

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.
Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.
In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

This is the third time I have to answer this question. It seems that you are not reading this topic carefully enough before answering something here, which is generally a violation of the Politics branch rules.
1810  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 10, 2022, 12:49:49 PM
Europe could not even reach an agreement with Qatar, Qatar put forward unacceptable demands (a long-term contract for 20 years and a guarantee of protection from European antimonopoly prosecution). It will be extremely difficult for Europe to agree with anyone, why increase production for the sake of a region that has a strategy to reduce its carbon footprint?

Qatar is one of the major beneficiaries from this war, along with the United States. The EU will end up importing LNG from Qatar and the United States, which will cost them 5x when compared to the pipeline gas from Russia.
If Europe manages to agree on this with Qatar, there are still disagreements. Meanwhile, Germany has a dilemma as to who should be turned off first in the event of a shortage of gas - private households or industrial enterprises.
1811  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 10, 2022, 12:45:21 PM
In the end it will turn out that sanctions worked opposite and only made Russia more rich and powerful. We have increased prices on natural resources already, and the prices keep going higher. I dont believe those, who call to refuse using Russian gas or oil, or say that they already refused using them, really did it. On one hand Russian economy is suffering from lack of import, on the other it is being pumped with money right now. Who is winning from that?

I have one question for you. Tell me - do you follow the news? Behind the speeches of politicians and government representatives? I mean Russian? No, not hysterical clowns in the Kremlin propaganda studios, but, for example, Lavrov? This is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia. Tell me - do you think he's an idiot? Do you think he does not understand the benefits of sanctions that will only enrich and strengthen Russia? Or is he a saboteur, and is constantly begging the US and the EU for the sanctions to be lifted? It turns out that the entire diplomatic corps of Russia, and the president and prime minister of Russia himself, are enemies of Russia?! Want to prevent profit from sanctions? Smiley
I don't recall a case where Lavrov asked for sanctions to be lifted. In Russia, it is customary to put new Western sanctions in a package with packages, shrug your shoulders and move on.

Well, just because you haven’t heard, absolutely doesn’t mean that Lavrov didn’t say this Smiley

The issue of lifting sanctions is constantly being discussed, Russia is constantly moaning and begging for them to be removed - either it's not fair, it's not humane, or something else. Do you remember how fun it was in 2014 - and don’t make our Iskanders laugh, and the sanctions are only good. And now Putin asks to withdraw from the UN (last year), then Lavrov speaks of inhumanity (the last couple of years), then recently Lavrov was surprised new package of sanctions, and was quite annoyed (last month). As I understand it, it's all about the fact that they like sanctions and they enjoy them, right? Smiley Finding the described events is very simple - Google, and the request "Putin asks to lift sanctions", or "Lavrov asks to lift sanctions", and you will be happy - hear them! Smiley
Maybe you can do it for me and provide prooflinks? And now it looks more like lies and slander that you spread as part of a subscription campaign, which your bounty manager may not like.
1812  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 10, 2022, 10:02:47 AM
I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?
This is the same island whose Ukrainian defenders sent the Russian ship to hell and then died heroically. Then it turned out that they were captured and were exchanged. Then the island was controlled by Russia, but a few days ago Ukraine launched an operation to liberate it. It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter. Now the island is gray on the maps, its status is uncertain. Why Ukraine had to spend so much effort to capture this island is beyond me. Theoretically, the island can be fired upon by the new M777 howitzers with some types of long-range ammunition, it is located 40 km from the nearest coast and about 56 km from Odessa.

Perhaps Ukraine is tritely trying to divert attention from the painful defeat in the Donbass, after losing control over Popasna.
1813  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 10, 2022, 08:38:13 AM
Don't have enough helicopters and jets to show at the air parade because half of the air force is being dismantled for scrap by Ukrainians and the other half is busy bombing cities. How are we going to hide it?
Say that it's too cloudy today! Nobody's going to ask any questions. They know where questions lead.
Victory Day in Russia is a great national holiday, and you will not be able to spoil it with your impotent poisonous fantasies.
1814  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: May 10, 2022, 08:20:20 AM
In the end it will turn out that sanctions worked opposite and only made Russia more rich and powerful. We have increased prices on natural resources already, and the prices keep going higher. I dont believe those, who call to refuse using Russian gas or oil, or say that they already refused using them, really did it. On one hand Russian economy is suffering from lack of import, on the other it is being pumped with money right now. Who is winning from that?

I have one question for you. Tell me - do you follow the news? Behind the speeches of politicians and government representatives? I mean Russian? No, not hysterical clowns in the Kremlin propaganda studios, but, for example, Lavrov? This is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia. Tell me - do you think he's an idiot? Do you think he does not understand the benefits of sanctions that will only enrich and strengthen Russia? Or is he a saboteur, and is constantly begging the US and the EU for the sanctions to be lifted? It turns out that the entire diplomatic corps of Russia, and the president and prime minister of Russia himself, are enemies of Russia?! Want to prevent profit from sanctions? Smiley
I don't recall a case where Lavrov asked for sanctions to be lifted. In Russia, it is customary to put new Western sanctions in a package with packages, shrug your shoulders and move on.
1815  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: May 10, 2022, 06:51:11 AM
This effect is temporary, as the reorientation of European Union countries away from Russian oil and gas towards other countries and alternative sources disrupts established supply chains, intensifies panic, and then raises the price. Everything will soon return to normal, and then, in the medium term, Russia will suffer enormous losses from which it will never be able to recover.
I don't think that is even possible.
For example gas, there is infrastructure in place that transfers it easily from Russia to Europe. You can't just build another gas line all the way to another farther country. It takes years and the route should go through regions that are unstable. Not to mention that other sources like Qatar for example are not capable of producing 1/1000 of the same amount of gas that Russia is producing and countries that can like Iran are not going to sell it to Europe.
Buying it from elsewhere through other means would also significantly increase the price and won't cover the needs either. To transfer gas using a ship for example you have to first turn it liquid (LNG) which significantly increases the cost and the amount that would be shipped is still not going to be enough.

The problem is the same with oil.
They went to the Arabs and they couldn't increase their production any more. They went to Venezuela and they didn't comply and their infrastructure is already weak and US sanctions prevents them from improving it too so that failed too. They went to Iran that can both produce and ship more than enough oil but Mora met a middle finger 2 days ago so that's not gonna happen either.
Europe could not even reach an agreement with Qatar, Qatar put forward unacceptable demands (a long-term contract for 20 years and a guarantee of protection from European antimonopoly prosecution). It will be extremely difficult for Europe to agree with anyone, why increase production for the sake of a region that has a strategy to reduce its carbon footprint?
1816  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 10, 2022, 06:27:36 AM
I am not subscribed to Kadyrov's telegram channel and watch it occasionally. Definitely this is not a fake factory, I have no questions about the authenticity of its content, if you saw a fake there, please provide a specific link, otherwise it looks like slander.
Seems that post about liberated Svitlychne village already deleted from Kadyrov's telegram, but there article about it remaining on Russian media with link to Kadyrov's telegram:
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/62730da59a79474c6ba7d701
There is more fakes posted on regular basis, but I would need some time to make research and debunk it.
A single remote message with information that has not been confirmed does not make the entire channel an unreliable source. With this approach, you will not have any sources at all.

Quote
Declaration of Remembrance and Solidarity, 2016. In 2015, the Restitution of Kresov was created.
Thanks for the link. So, Poland and Ukraine condemn Nazi and Soviet agression, what is understandable. But from what I understand that Restitution of Kresov is just some small movement which don't have big importance and probably majority of Poland people don't even know about it.
This joint conviction has far-reaching legal implications. The Kresy Restitution organization managed to collect information about 100,000 (according to other sources, more than 160,000) Polish heirs and property owners in Western Ukraine.

Is this part of the parade?
The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

Their strategy is 'v pieriod, blyat' ('forward bitch') no matter the consequences. Eventually, they will run out of resources.
I appreciate your optimism! It seems that Russia should have run out of missiles in early March. Grin

Today's update:

- Odessa has taken several missile strikes. Putin's Psychos The Russian Army has gloriously destroyed a mall to de-nazify the people who where shopping inside and made the world a little more inhuman than before. Hypersonic missiles were used to avoid the air defences and alarms did not sound before impacts.
Rumor has it that a hypersonic missile flew into the hotel where the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were trained in firing from the American M777 howitzer, lived, but I cannot find an exact confirmation. Something strange is also happening around Snake Island, it seems there are losses on both sides.

Did someone mention Wali, the sniper: https://youtu.be/6uCLYAXuQPo?t=12 "I would be more afraid of a number of NATO soldiers than the equivalent Russian soldiers". Translation: Putin is sending Tactical Cannon Fodder to the front.
This is an old video, since then Wali's opinion has changed a lot. A sniper has little chance in a situation where the Russians use artillery instead of sniper rifles.
1817  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 07, 2022, 07:00:30 AM
How much do you get paid for shilling russian war propaganda?
Putin's troll army is not a secret anymore, you might have noticed already....
One trophy microwave and three large cans of Nutella per week. Grin

It seems like a couple of times I gave a link to a specific video in Kadyrov's telegram as a prooflink. Or do you seriously think that Chechens know how to deepfake when they shoot a video on the selfie camera of their smartphone?
It's not about deepfakes or something else. My point that's Kadyrov TikTok Telegram is one of many not reliable Russians sources. Quite fresh example about liberated village, which actually was under LPR control since 2014 and it's far from front line. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this stuff was posted on Kadyrov telegram.
I am not subscribed to Kadyrov's telegram channel and watch it occasionally. Definitely this is not a fake factory, I have no questions about the authenticity of its content, if you saw a fake there, please provide a specific link, otherwise it looks like slander.

You're right, I didn't know about it. Could you share some links to read about it because I can't anything about Ukraine abandoning western regions in favor of Poland.
Declaration of Remembrance and Solidarity, 2016. In 2015, the Restitution of Kresov was created.
1818  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 06, 2022, 05:14:45 PM
The fronts are not moving. If any, Ukraine has made some minor advancements and Putin keeps sending unready troops to die for nothing. The number of artillery batteries sent now to Ukraine is starting to range in the hundreds, not to mention air defences and civil support. The tactical situation is looking grim for Putin.
The fronts are moving, just slowly. Russia moves at its own pace, using its strengths to compensate for its weaknesses. Ukraine has already carried out three waves of mobilization, while Russia has not carried out a single one. For Ukraine, this is a people's war, and Russia is conducting a special operation with the forces of the peacetime army. All military successes of Ukraine are either fictitious, or are connected with the navy, which it does not have itself, or are connected with Turkish drones. In the East, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly being minced by artillery and Ukraine cannot do anything about this due to problems with logistics. Russian missiles disable railway electrical substations so that only diesel locomotives operate, this allows you to save infrastructure, but drastically reduce the amount of traffic on the railway.

Putin's army is unable to make any decisive advance. What you call grinding is in fact stagnating.
Decisive offensives mean great sacrifices, you confuse inability and unwillingness.

There is a say "strategy eats tactics for breakfast". Putin's psychos tactics are far from anything that you could call effective, but the strategy of the US here is stalling Russia into a war, bleed it and leave an economy that cannot sustain another war. That is being clearly and unquestionably being achieved. While you waste your time defending a poor tactical performance, they use theirs to make the economy of your country sink into oblivion.
Are you seriously? Rather, it is an action to demilitarize Europe, which, due to its own sanctions, does not have enough energy to quickly replenish its stocks of weapons. It is beneficial for the USA, it is also beneficial for Russia, Europe suffers - Europe is a trophy and a victim. Germany looks terrible and pale in the foreign policy arena, Scholz is called liver sausage and he just swallows it, and the Ukrainian ambassador even refused to apologize. In the West, there is a serious problem with inflation, and in order to solve it, it is not enough to raise the base rate by 0.5%, it must be raised to at least 10%, and this is a trillion-dollar bill for servicing external debt. West bankrupt lol. And Russia has been making record revenues from energy exports, roughly $66 billion since the start of the operation. The ruble against the dollar is now better than before the pandemic in 2020 and much better than in February 2022.

Even in the unlikely case of Russia achieving any significant territorial gain, Putin has gone from trying to have less of a border with NATO to looks like it ends in a "victorious" border with NATO of thousands of km both north-east and south-east, an increase military spending in Europe.
You are speculating on events that have not happened yet.

This great achievement of uniting your enemies and giving new life to an organisation that was in question (NATO) and creating a thousands of kilometres long border with NATO while making sure your army is shown as unable to quick win against a theoretically inferior enemy is so great that I am starting to suspect that Putin is a CIA agent. No joke, a CIA double agent could not do any better than him.

I'm not a big fan of discussing conspiracy theories and wishful thinking.

As Sri Aurobindo Ghose said, "Imperfect is joy that is not shared by all". I am hurt by the suffering of the Ukrainian people, who, due to their stupidity, are forced to experience all the horrors of war. I hope after the operation Ukraine will find a new worthy meaning of life, except for hatred for the fraternal Russian people.

Yes. The Ukrainian people will eventually forgive the deluded Russians after this aggression is over, but not before Ukrainian independence and sovereignty are restored. And not before Putin and his Russian bullies are dealt with in a firm and just way that stops his aggressive activities and gives Ukraine the sovereign rights to create a secure future for itself. This is not only possible, it is inevitable. The history books will be telling tales of Ukraine's destruction and disrespect for national sovereignty for decades to come. The Ukrainian people will hold Russia accountable for its actions, which will have lasting consequences for Russia.

Glad we understand each other. It is useful for Ukraine to appease its ego, because Russia is in a different weight category. It is possible to pursue a free sovereign policy, but why these massive torchlight processions with calls to kill Russians? Zelensky's statements about a nuclear bomb were completely out of place. If it was a provocation, then it was successful.
1819  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 06, 2022, 10:08:30 AM
Yeah, I just don't see any reason why the Russians would want it, especially since the peeps in that are are likely to be much less friendly (even in the post Zenensky period.)  I don't really fully buy the argument of 'de-nazification' which strikes me as mostly a PR-friendly excuse.  The benefits of chasing the Nazis into the West is probably not worth the hassles, costs, and risks, and they would just back-fill when the area is vacated anyway.
I think we will soon see how events will develop in the West of Ukraine, because until the complete liberation of Donbass this is not a paramount issue and there are many interested parties, including Poland, Romania, Hungary and even Moldova. I'm not even sure that the West of Ukraine is now subordinate to Kyiv.

You still do not see it. Putin has been brought into a war that is a trap.
Do you now mean that Russia has become a victim of external manipulation and is not to blame for the invasion of Ukraine? This is something new from you.
...

Thanks for recognising that it is an invasion (not a liberation, denazification nor anything else but an invasion - your own words).

- Nothing is happening
- Just an operation
- This is an invasion       < ----- you are here  Undecided
- This is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
- This is a war of aggression by Putin.
- This is a crime.
The topic is called invasion, technically it is an invasion, in fact it is a unique military special operation. Here we are discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this is the military-political aspect of a larger hybrid economic-information war of the entire West against Russia. The economic aspect of the confrontation can be discussed in the economy section of this forum, there is also an interesting story with the European oil embargo following the coal embargo, and a powerful intrigue with paying for gas in rubles to circumvent sanctions. It's the perfect storm. Grin

No, I mean exactly what I wrote: that Putin has been brought into a war that is a trap. He is to blame for the invasion because he decided to invade - he may have decided something else, but he lacks a group of people that can tell him he is wrong and has been fooled into believing he could achieve a quick win. Him and his circle have  started  something they cannot finish. There are winners in this war, Russia is not one of them.
What nonsense, you draw at least premature conclusions, because the operation continues and seems to be quite successful. I would say that in general, things are going great for Russia. You were right about Dvornikov's tactics - they are very simple and effective. Reconnaissance drones, then the work of artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, then tanks under the cover of infantry and front-line aviation. The tactics of parallel short offensives to minimize the front line, in the Donbass, there is a methodical slow grinding of the fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with minimal losses and a compact numerical strength. The most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east have already been destroyed, taken prisoner or bled after two months of continuous fighting, and freshly mobilized reservists come to the eastern front as cannon fodder and I think the Ukrainians who want to die there will soon run out. Russia, the LPR and the DPR are slowly and methodically pressing from the east, and apparently soon they will push through the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. What happens next is interesting to me, there are many interested actors and many options for the development of events, and the chances for Russia seem favorable to me.

A peace treaty? Are Ukraine and Russia at war then?  (I think they are, do you?)

Irony apart, there isn't anything like a full defeat, unconditional or conditional or any type of surrender. This is a bear trap and a nasty one.

You demand unconditional surrender from Ukraine while you argue they are not willing to negotiate. I am not sure you what type of deals have you closed in your life - usually someone concedes something and the other concedes as well so everyone is slightly unhappy with the result. In this case, by waging war, I can tell you that both sides are going to be worse off. There is no way the US and Europe are going to let Russia come better-off this war and there is no way Ukraine is going to forget. Needless to say that all the dead civilians and soldiers are not better off.
Of course, I would also prefer a quick and bloodless operation, without unnecessary casualties, destruction and bloodshed. Unfortunately, for this, Ukraine must capitulate, because Russia's policy towards Nazism is characterized by zero tolerance. Russia denounces Nazism and has strong evidence of widespread Nazism in Ukraine. There are serious documentary claims about the work of bio-laboratories in Ukraine. The contents of the bunker near Azovstal have not yet been fully disclosed, but the Azov fighters are already behaving there openly like terrorists, trying to exchange hostages for food by live weight. According to the results of the operation, there will be a court like Nuremberg 2, all those responsible will be punished. The fate of the territories of Ukraine liberated from Nazism will be decided by referendums of local residents following the Kosovo precedent. Everyone will again live a peaceful, calm life, as befits civilized Europeans.

But the biggest problem Putin will now face is not Ukraine. Finland, Sweden and Ukraine are certainly now almost forced to join NATO. Europe will take all steps to reduce or remove energy trading with Russia. Congratulations for your victory.
Scandinavians are much more adequate than Ukrainians and for the most part do not experience Russophobia. There are problems with the adequacy of politicians with a vagina who have fallen under the spell of the masculine image of NATO and make incomprehensible initiatives from which the people of Finland and Sweden are actively perplexed. So the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO is still in question, in Finland there are debates in parliament and it seems that common sense is ready to prevail there.

Ukrainian people will pay a high price for freedom - it should have been much easier, if Russia had a decent leadership.
You can always do something better, it turns out as it turns out. It’s hard for me to blame Putin for something, it seems that his tactics are quite safe for the inhabitants of Russia, and his strategy is fully consistent with the interests of Russia as a sovereign state. I am sorry that Putin's actions do not meet your expectations and if they infringe on the anti-Russian interests of Ukraine. Ukraine is free to act as a sovereign state, but Russia is also free to respond to existential threats against itself.
1820  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: May 06, 2022, 08:20:56 AM
There will be alternatives but it will not happen that fast. It will be very costly too. There will be a lot of discussions to environmentalists and various stakeholders. There's geopolitical issues too that need resolutions like Algerian gas going Europe but most likely needs to pass thru Morocco.

The fact that Germany will be spending billions of dollars to fast-track their LNG terminals means it needs to be utilized for many years to come to cover its cost. I wonder what will be the future of Russia once Europe becomes free from its gas. More wars? Maybe more Russian aggression in order to salvage favorable economic deals? And NATO can freely move against Russia too.    
1. China. This is the most energy-deficient country in the world, China made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal, the reserves of which are now severely depleted. China needs a lot of energy, much more than Germany, and Russia has a surplus. In January 2022, an agreement was reached on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline for 50 billion cubic meters per year (like Nord Stream 2). Also, LNG terminals have been actively built in the Far East for several years, with a focus on the Southeast Asian market. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline with a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year has been in operation since 2019.

2. Domestic market. For many years, Gazprom has been export-oriented, often to the detriment of domestic consumers. Russia is a huge country with a harsh climate and there is still great potential for gasification of private households. Recently, one of the branches of Nord Stream 2 was reoriented from Europe to gasification of the North-West of Russia (Karelia, etc).

Do not worry about Russia, it is much easier to deal with excess energy than with energy shortages. Europe's withdrawal from Russian gas would be a disaster for Russia in 2014, but not in 2022 - Russia has done a lot to diversify during this time. But what Europe has been doing all this time is not entirely clear to me.
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