Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[coolcoinz]

Is this part of the parade?

The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

Don't have enough helicopters and jets to show at the air parade because half of the air force is being dismantled for scrap by Ukrainians and the other half is busy bombing cities. How are we going to hide it?
Say that it's too cloudy today! Nobody's going to ask any questions. They know where questions lead.

[be.open]

Don't have enough helicopters and jets to show at the air parade because half of the air force is being dismantled for scrap by Ukrainians and the other half is busy bombing cities. How are we going to hide it?
Say that it's too cloudy today! Nobody's going to ask any questions. They know where questions lead.

Victory Day in Russia is a great national holiday, and you will not be able to spoil it with your impotent poisonous fantasies.

[paxmao]

....

Their strategy is 'v pieriod, blyat' ('forward bitch') no matter the consequences. Eventually, they will run out of resources.

I appreciate your optimism! It seems that Russia should have run out of missiles in early March.

Did someone mention Wali, the sniper: https://youtu.be/6uCLYAXuQPo?t=12 "I would be more afraid of a number of NATO soldiers than the equivalent Russian soldiers". Translation: Putin is sending Tactical Cannon Fodder to the front.

This is an old video, since then Wali's opinion has changed a lot. A sniper has little chance in a situation where the Russians use artillery instead of sniper rifles.

Running out of missiles, that is unlikely. Being able to replace the ones used without access to any advanced microchips, that is more than unlikely. Sanctions are slow, but persistent.

The use of missiles depicts a situation in which that is the only option and certainly an inadequate one. These are very expensive and are a weapon of choice for a certain range of targets that are high value, strategically important and are clearly located and researched (for example, sinking the Moskva is a perfect use for missiles).

Using a missile to hit a civilian building actually reveals that Putin's Psychos cannot use anything more "appropriate" near Odessa. To put it plainly: a couple of artillery shells do nearly the same effect at a tenth of the cost and the effects can be better predicted and evaluated. Putin's army has not run out of missile, it has run out of steam.

Mobilisation would be a solution, but Putin knows the political cost of doing so: Recognising before his own that Russia is a belligerent nation in an ongoing war and getting bodybags / plenty of human ashes delivered to the door of Russian mothers and widows.

Options are very limited for Putin and none of them are good - just no worse than others.

RE Wali, I take it as a personal experience and for what he says, Ukraine needs to make better use of this type of experts. The good thing is that at least they are sober, not like the unmotivated and homesick youngsters that Putin is sending to the front.

...
Rumor has it that a hypersonic missile flew into the hotel where the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were trained in firing from the American M777 howitzer, lived, but I cannot find an exact confirmation. Something strange is also happening around Snake Island, it seems there are losses on both sides.
...

Sure... they were training at a shopping centre. While people also did their shopping before being massacred.

I agree, there are looses on both sides in Snake Island. Ukraine seems to be loosing grenades and drone bombs while Putin's Army seems to be loosing cannon fodder young Russian soldiers and equipment.

As of now, this Island is probably the most photographed spot on earth along with the Eiffel Tower.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hF8ZNkLLLY

You can run but you cannot hide...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJV40LM-4TA

The glorious Russian military again doing what it does best - i.e. lying.

Family of one of the sailors who died on Moskva can't find out what happened to their son and the fleet command is covering up his death with blatant lies:

• The flagship was not in Ukrainian territory.
• The flagship was not participating in the "special operation".
• Your son went missing in the "accident" and his location has not been determined.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1522458616913145857

Yeah I mean just tell us you what you do best. I suggest you go fight them.

My take is that these are not lies, from their point of view. Russia does not recognise these waters as Ukrainian, the ship is permanently in the Black Sea and the unfortunate young sailor may have the victim of an accident (e.g. burned by the flames) and his location has not been determined because either there is not enough of him left or because nobody really cared where the guy ended.

Do not die for Putin - there is no reason to kill yourself going to Ukraine.

[Branko]

I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?

[tvbcof]

I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?

It was one of those amusing fabrications that the Western media got involved in early on.  Like the 'Ghost of Kiev' lady who took out a whole Roosian air wing in her modified Pitts Special fighter plane (with graphics supplied by a video game.)

In the Western press, the Ukrainian 'defenders' told the Rooskies to F-off, mounted bayonets, grabed their entrenching tools, and fought to the last man.  In reality, they surrendered and were returned to Ukraine with a promise to not participate in the struggle any more.  Probably most of the neglected the pledge (at gunpoint from the swastika guys) I would guess, and was chalked up as an example of the early false hopes that the Russians had about the disposition of the Jewish funded CIA-run enemy.

Answer, the Russians or their proxies did not have it prior to the war.  From what I can tell they had it but don't have it now.  The (rather questionable) story from the Russian side is that the fought off an attack recently, but then abandoned the island anyway.  Add this to the list of things which make me wonder how much of this whole conflict is made up out of whole cloth on BOTH sides of the info war.

[be.open]

I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?

This is the same island whose Ukrainian defenders sent the Russian ship to hell and then died heroically. Then it turned out that they were captured and were exchanged. Then the island was controlled by Russia, but a few days ago Ukraine launched an operation to liberate it. It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter. Now the island is gray on the maps, its status is uncertain. Why Ukraine had to spend so much effort to capture this island is beyond me. Theoretically, the island can be fired upon by the new M777 howitzers with some types of long-range ammunition, it is located 40 km from the nearest coast and about 56 km from Odessa.

Perhaps Ukraine is tritely trying to divert attention from the painful defeat in the Donbass, after losing control over Popasna.

[paxmao]

I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?

This is the same island whose Ukrainian defenders sent the Russian ship to hell and then died heroically. Then it turned out that they were captured and were exchanged. Then the island was controlled by Russia, but a few days ago Ukraine launched an operation to liberate it. It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter. Now the island is gray on the maps, its status is uncertain. Why Ukraine had to spend so much effort to capture this island is beyond me. Theoretically, the island can be fired upon by the new M777 howitzers with some types of long-range ammunition, it is located 40 km from the nearest coast and about 56 km from Odessa.

Perhaps Ukraine is tritely trying to divert attention from the painful defeat in the Donbass, after losing control over Popasna.

Snake island is a territory of Ukraine that right now is being used a a place to deploy Russian soldiers that need to die for nothing. If you insist that Ukraine is not heroic at this point, you should go there a see for yourself chairborne soldier.

There is no particular reason to "hide" advances. Both sides are actually making minor advances in different fronts but overall there is nothing decisive.

[suchmoon]

It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter.

Except there is video evidence of Russia losing multiple boats, SAMs, and a helicopter, but there's no evidence of Ukrainian losses and it wouldn't make sense for them to even attempt sending troops or equipment there when they can safely attack Russians remotely.

More Russian MoD fantasies. Destroying Ukrainian Bayraktars for the the third time, and airplanes for the second time. I think tanks and boats are into the second round as well.

Edit - Meanwhile the glorious Russian military is inventing new ways to use rotten capitalist technologies because glorious Russian technologies are too advanced I guess:

Wrecked Russian fighter jets are being found with rudimentary GPS receivers "taped to the dashboards" in Ukraine because their inbuilt navigation systems are so bad, the UK defense minister said.
[...]
"The result is that whilst Russia have large amounts of artillery and armor that they like parading, they are unable to leverage them for combined arms maneuver and just resort to mass indiscriminate barrages."

[paxmao]

It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter.

Except there is video evidence of Russia losing multiple boats, SAMs, and a helicopter, but there's no evidence of Ukrainian losses and it wouldn't make sense for them to even attempt sending troops or equipment there when they can safely attack Russians remotely.

More Russian MoD fantasies. Destroying Ukrainian Bayraktars for the the third time, and airplanes for the second time. I think tanks and boats are into the second round as well.

Edit - Meanwhile the glorious Russian military is inventing new ways to use rotten capitalist technologies because glorious Russian technologies are too advanced I guess:

Wrecked Russian fighter jets are being found with rudimentary GPS receivers "taped to the dashboards" in Ukraine because their inbuilt navigation systems are so bad, the UK defense minister said.
[...]
"The result is that whilst Russia have large amounts of artillery and armor that they like parading, they are unable to leverage them for combined arms maneuver and just resort to mass indiscriminate barrages."

Leads me to think that they may not even need sanctions of components. Their own corruption works perfectly well.

There seems to be a very wide distance between the fancy last gen. missiles and some of the jets and the general state of the Russian ground troops.

[TwitchySeal]

Is this part of the parade?

The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

No, I meant the one in Kyiv.  The one that would be naive and foolish to think wouldn't happen.  Why didn't they have one there?  That's rhetorical, of course.  The reason is because the Russian military lost that battle.  I'm just curious how much you're willing to twist yourself to not admit it.  It's tough to deflect such an obvious black and white situation. 

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

[Lucius]

US-sent M777 howitzers have finally been used, and the video shows them successfully destroying 7 of 11 Russian tanks in one convoy. I would say that this is a great result for the first time, and when the Ukrainian soldiers train a little better, I believe it will be even more precise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZTR6yC6O4

[be.open]

Is this part of the parade?

The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

No, I meant the one in Kyiv.  The one that would be naive and foolish to think wouldn't happen.  Why didn't they have one there?  That's rhetorical, of course.  The reason is because the Russian military lost that battle.  I'm just curious how much you're willing to twist yourself to not admit it.  It's tough to deflect such an obvious black and white situation. 

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

This is the third time I have to answer this question. It seems that you are not reading this topic carefully enough before answering something here, which is generally a violation of the Politics branch rules.

[paxmao]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

US-sent M777 howitzers have finally been used, and the video shows them successfully destroying 7 of 11 Russian tanks in one convoy. I would say that this is a great result for the first time, and when the Ukrainian soldiers train a little better, I believe it will be even more precise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZTR6yC6O4

This is what modern artillery does by the looks of it. This is not "barrage" or 100 shells one hit tactics nor a second world war shut and cross fingers - this is tank located, tank blasted.

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

[suchmoon]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Income potential for the Ukrainian postal service too.

The island is quite small though. I wonder what happens when it's all covered in imaginary downed Bayraktars. I hope it warps through a wormhole into the Red Square.

[Lucius]

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

These howitzers have a range of 24 km up to 100 km depending on the charge they use. You can hardly escape being hit in the open, and since there are mostly inexperienced soldiers in armored vehicles/tanks, they are very easy targets. If you watched the video then you can see that some tanks are trying to go forward, but one was destroyed in motion (2:50), while only a few were saved by returning to the shelter of the settlements they passed through before.

With the fact that more and more smart weapons are coming into the hands of Ukrainians and that they are being trained to use them, Russia's losses will be greater than before.

[Tash]

Victory parade in Mariupol, Ukraine. 09 may2022
https://www.bitchute.com/video/UyWrfnhvkmLO/

[paxmao]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Income potential for the Ukrainian postal service too.

The island is quite small though. I wonder what happens when it's all covered in imaginary downed Bayraktars. I hope it warps through a wormhole into the Red Square.

Is the perfect size for an early alert radar, six to eight S-400 batteries and, given the need, a few nuclear silos.

It is also the perfect size for an early alert radar, a couple of Patriot batteries and, given the need, a THAAD or some form of earlier interceptor.

Now that we are talking about it... Putin may not be as worried about having nukes near his territory, but rather having a possible current secret or future system of early interception of Nukes. Nukes are very difficult to intercept, in the late stage we are talking objects of 1m diameter going a several times the speed of sound and accelerating at several G's. In the early stage this may actually be possible. I am guessing a lot here but... could be the case.

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

These howitzers have a range of 24 km up to 100 km depending on the charge they use. You can hardly escape being hit in the open, and since there are mostly inexperienced soldiers in armored vehicles/tanks, they are very easy targets. If you watched the video then you can see that some tanks are trying to go forward, but one was destroyed in motion (2:50), while only a few were saved by returning to the shelter of the settlements they passed through before.

With the fact that more and more smart weapons are coming into the hands of Ukrainians and that they are being trained to use them, Russia's losses will be greater than before.

100 km? Are you sure? Anyway, yes these are modern artillery and there seems to be very good geoloc passed to them. Now that I think of it, they may have used NATO guided shells, specific for this smaller targets. That would explain the amazing precision. They do not look like the shells that can actually kill 2 tanks with one round.

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

[LTU_btc]

Interesting stuff about Chief of the General Staff of Russian ARmy Vladimir Gerasimov. He wasn't seen on 9th May parade yesterday:
https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gerasimov-russian-general-victory-day-parade-missing-1704798
There is one possibilty that when he visited Izyum in Ukraine, he was wounded and now in hospital. But there is another prediction that Putin removed him from this position.

A single remote message with information that has not been confirmed does not make the entire channel an unreliable source. With this approach, you will not have any sources at all.

It's not just single message, it's regular thing. There is even rumour that some Russian media isn't allowed to quote Kadyrov without permission from above:
https://rus.ozodi.org/a/31835983.html

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Something like Chornobaivka, right? But in general, I don't think that strategically Snake Island is most imporant object for both sides.

[paxmao]

Interesting stuff about Chief of the General Staff of Russian ARmy Vladimir Gerasimov. He wasn't seen on 9th May parade yesterday:
https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gerasimov-russian-general-victory-day-parade-missing-1704798
There is one possibilty that when he visited Izyum in Ukraine, he was wounded and now in hospital. But there is another prediction that Putin removed him from this position.

A single remote message with information that has not been confirmed does not make the entire channel an unreliable source. With this approach, you will not have any sources at all.

It's not just single message, it's regular thing. There is even rumour that some Russian media isn't allowed to quote Kadyrov without permission from above:
https://rus.ozodi.org/a/31835983.html

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Something like Chornobaivka, right? But in general, I don't think that strategically Snake Island is most imporant object for both sides.

Not the most, that would be Odessa and the south coast. However, this island is very close to NATO. I admit that is nightmare to defend so what I am saying may just not be realistic.

[suchmoon]

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

These are very expensive. Not sure what the advantage is over e.g. Switchblade (speed?) but I thought it would be rare to see Excaliburs in action, maybe against juicy target like radars.