Actually.. looking at all the charts I can find it looks like all that short interest is fleeing.  Interesting...

Oh how I would love to see this turn into a squeeze.   But, i do not think it will... Still fingers crossed.

In my list of scenarios this one is VERY likely.  But I also think it is possible there will be plenty of buyers.  It will be interesting to see big money show up, maybe.

In one of my much less likely scenarios a government attempts a hash attack.  That's a really small one though.

We may have differing impressions of what sort of person he was... that's fine, of course.

Who has the keys to those million BTC now?  I would not be surprised if he'd set up a dead man switch to pull some sort of crazy action...  interesting times.

I do not know very much about this person.  And I have always sort of felt like that is for the good.  Because what little I have investigated about him reveals someone who, though a visionary, was somewhat twisted.  When I hear him called a "bitcoiner" I wince a little because I do not really like that he represents us.

On the other hand I am pretty sure he was a large whale.  And he was likely smart enough to think of ways to protect his fortune in the case of his demise, but I would also not be surprised if those coins are lost forever at this point.

If that is the case, then I am thankful for his final service to the community.

Also, I would not be surprised if this was somehow faked.  That is the kind of nut he was/is.

Bold.  I like it!

I dunno.  I think that really could be a parlor trick.  Even if he did know Satoshi. He seems to spend a lot of time stacking the deck...

Man I dislike the jerkpants fool.

I am no technical expert by any means... but the more tests on resistance...  the less it can be expected to hold.

It does not look like we are done.  It's kind of hard to fathom for me honestly.

I have heard this theory too.  And it is one of the few without a fatal hole, and even makes things like the lawsuit make some sense.

I would hate for CSW to actually be that close to it all.  He is a curse on the whole thing...

I assume this will be a specter that haunts us forever...  Well, we can sort of hope so at least.  Because the other options are all scarier.

I am sure you have done the same thought experiments.

Coins from Satoshi address move with no warning:  Eek.  This will most likely cause a huge price crash. Even if "Satoshi" appears to explain it it will be a little scary.

Satoshi posts the intent to sell/move coins.  Several interesting scenarios here.  I think the most interesting scenario would be if he were to move those coins to a known burn address (1111111111111111111114oLvT2 for example)  That could cause some fairly crazy price swings, but would arguable end in a gain.

Satoshi is either dead, or lost the keys are has the god like willpower to not spend.  I feel like there are very few people with the tactical wisdom strong enough to know that he must play this exactly right.  I still wonder about Szabo.  He is one of the few who I think has the correct alignments for this...    

It is a part of it, no matter what...

It's always been real!

It's hard to not let emotion rule in times like these... but here is how I see it.

We are either holders or traders. And we have faith or doubt in the project...  You could project this on a 4 square chart with two axis.

As holders it is always hard to see value drop.  We see our net buying power go down.  But if we remain positive about the project then we would either continue to hold during times like this, or even add to our position at a discount.  On the other hand if we are losing faith in the project for some reason or another then we have to plan to unwind positions as we see best.

As traders, if we believe in the project then we must detach our hopes and base investment decision on our system.  In a bear market there are several ways to profit from the dramatic moves of the market, and move like this are opportunities. If we believe the markets have over corrected we have money to make taking positions.  If we have reason to believe the technical are continuing to point down, then we can make money by shorting, or buying puts.

I am a holder who believes we are over corrected.  I am not a trader. This is because I also think we could drop even further against both BTC and the USD.  My positions are a fiarly large percentage of my net worth, so i am not adding any more... but if i had the money to do it, now would be an interesting time.  I think BTC is in the driver's seat, and it is very hard to predict right now... it does not seem the market is acting entirely rationally.

But the question is do we climb too high?  Or are we correcting too deeply?

My money is on both!  How's that for wishy-washy.

As an aside, i do not know if any of the Rehar drama is inducing selling in relative newcomers to XMR.  Could be.  I think that is a mistake if so.  It is too short a view, IMHO.

OK.  I have a confession to make.

I got into a long drawn out twitter fight with Jorge Stolfi today.

I don't know what got into me, but I just wanted to cram all his ridiculous madness straight down his neck.  Which is impossible as he is irredeemable.

I have read his posts since he showed up here like 7 years ago.  In fact, I have a feeling he may have even annoyed this very thread.

What a hopeless statist fool.

Oh, he, himself cued one for us:

Love him or hate him, he was one of a kind, and a pretty interesting dude.  Smart, eccentric.

And I give it a 30% chance he killed himself.  The only reason I say something that high is he was in prison as he came off whatever the cocktail of chemistry he was feasting on constantly for the last decades.  I can only imagine the withdrawal, and I would assume the natural depression that sets in during this would be HEAVILY exacerbated by being in jail at what it most likely the tail end of your life.

So yeah... he certainly could have done it.

But it's also possible he did not.

Agreed.  I picked up a little too @ .0065, as well as a little corn at 29980.  Ha.  I saw the bitcoin price under 30 on the app and had to buy.

Of course I suffer a little during these times.  Even though I have learned to avoid as much of the pain as possible and have grown a bit more spine than I had way back when I also have more to lose now than ever.  If you had told me I would ever been in a position to lose or gain what I can lose or gain in a single day I would have been astonished.  But I would also have been delighted.

A problem I would like to have, as I say.

But that does not change the fact that all of our "numbers" have been up 2x what they currently are, and that is painful.

My friend will never reveal to me whether he has bought Bitcoin or not, though I told him about it at sub 4 digit prices.  He did buy some ripple and Bcash I know that... *sigh*.  I am hoping he has bought a little Bitcoin too.  But I think he has done OK in the stock market.  He is just frustrated that he thinks I have enough to retire and that not having done so means I am greedy.

For me the equation is simple.  The amount I have to gain by putting off retirement is enough to make it an easy choice to be able to still work, and even throw the occasional couple K at Bitcoin on days like today.  I bought the last time we were near 30, and today. Actually today I got it at 29980. HA!

I am a simple man, who leads a simple life.  My descendants will have wealth they cannot believe if I am right about this bitcoin thing...  I often wonder if that is a good thing...

An interesting thought...

We often think of bitxcoin finding it's price by realizing the answer to this equasion:

y/21,000,000

Where y = everything in the world.

This is a good thought... but I was just thinking about part of the reason that is somewhat over-simple.

y/(21,000,000-x)

Where x = the coins in FIRM  hands and y=what is currently for sale.

We are really only able to price what is being currently valued, but the pool of AVAILABLE bitcoin is MUCH less than 21mm.  Of course there are all of Satoshi's coins, which may be out of the game.  Then there are all the lost coins, and THEN there are to coins that are not going to move very easily at all, like mine.  It is this last bit that becomes interesting because it is dynamic.

I am not selling.  I might trade some of my bitcoin for a little land to retire on some day.  But that's going to be a while off.  Obviously the price of Bitcoin currently has something to do with this.  For every holder there is a price where he or she will say "You know... it is now worth it for me to let go of x of my coins so I can have y.

Those variables are a constantly moving target both because of the time preference of the holder as well as the items for sale. 

And I would suggest that the second equation takes us to ultimately higher number than the first.

We are seeing bitcoin become a value CONDUIT as opposed to a value Container.  This is a VERY interesting distinction. Today US dollars can be sent all over the world using the lightning network.  If I send $100 from A -> B using the lightning network does it matter how many BTC that transaction sends?  It could be .000001 BTC, or 10 BTC and it does not matter.

BUT.  The pipe has to be big enough to send ALL the transactions that need to be sent at any one time.  BUT it also has to take into consideration the fact that much of the existing BTC is simply NOT AVAILABLE. That means instead of bitcoin being equal to 1/21000000 of everything, instead the AVAILABLE float is equal to all the of things currently for sale -- at least.

I am still working on this, but i feel like this train of thought goes somewhere... maybe just in circles?  

I'm lovin' it!

I don't care if this was scaled a little to fit... it's gruesomely accurate.