Dow 4000 here we come.
agree with you with a target extension: take away another 0.
400 we come by 2014-2016ah yes, a fellow Prechter disciple.  :-) correct. lets see who is right. The 400 target makes sense to me. |
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Dow 4000 here we come.
agree with you with a target extension: take away another 0.
400 we come by 2014-2016 |
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Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) is my silver play. It was down 8.6% today so I opened a position. I have some physical bullion but I'm not a big end of the world type person so I'm content with owning the miners. Maybe I'm trying to catch a falling knife, we'll see.
Let's see how it plays out. I shorted Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG) two days ago at 24$. Now down -12 %. |
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I'm just going to chime in here quickly..
I subscribed to the private service for the first few months, and was very happy with the detailed analysis. I do understand it takes a significant amount of time to provide such a service, and I do trust the advice given both here publicly and in the subscription service.
However, because of the cost and the fact I am a very low volume trader I have decided not to renew. For those interested who do move a fair bit of volume I would highly recommend the services offered. If I was in a position to be more involved in the market I would not think twice about signing up again.
I will miss the faster updates and more in depth analysis than is provided publicly.
S3052, your providing a fantastic service here, please do keep up the good work. Hopefully sometime I will be in a position to increase my exposure and will most certainly get myself back on your subscription service.
Cheers
-Digigami
Thanks for the encouraging words. You and others are always welcome to join the subscribers. I just issued the weekly report with a longterm outlook and 3 major options. |
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At least the Randomizer seems to work. Got my first BTC today. But still very few people in... hope it grows as large as the old one... |
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We do not have to agree. I am short stocks since DJI 12,600, silver since 43$, EURUSD since 1.47 and those trades run well, and I will stay midterm in those positions (probably until 2014-2016); and additionally do some hedging and playing short term bounces.
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The big indices in US are down around 5 % at closing. What kind of impact do you guys think this have on the bitcoin economy (if we think that the turmoil continues)?
Impact could be on individuals who are long stocks. If they get wiped out / lost a lot of money in the stock market, and have a lot of BTC, they may sell some BTC to get back some cash.
But I doubt that so many BTC holders are also big Stock holders.
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When I look at the metals and oil charts I am struck by the huge correction in 2008. Whether crude, platinum, or silver, they all drop by about half their previous price. Except gold.
This is a good comparison, with the exception that this time the metal drop will be more severe. Probably down -80% to -90%, except for Gold, which may only drop -20 to -50% in dollar terms. |
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Silver indeed often leads other markets like stocks, but you can't only look at short term correlations.
Indeed, this year, Silver topped before the nasdaq.
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I suppose the only reason this hasn't been created yet is that the techie people who could create it all love bitcoin and know that this would just accelerate the collapse. I'm all for pouring gasoline on the fire, though.
There is strong evidence that short selling actually smooths declines and not accelerate. Short selling provides liquidity and ultimately also buying power since short sellers MUST COVER and BUY BACK. Normal sellers do not have to.
But financial journalists and politicians have no clue about the markets and are happy to find a scapegoat and this is short selling |
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Just for my understanding: Bitomat is still operating as we speak, correct?
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Big intraday turn down today. Looks like the start of the Silver desaster.
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And here is an example on how I see Gold prices.
http://chart.ly/hi5cdqh
5 completed Elliott waves. Perhaps a couple of $ more upside, then big correction.
Silver also completed 5 Waves up, but started its decline already in April 2011, again a leading indicator, and hence leading Gold as well.
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Great answer. But I would like to hear your response. The USD goes to shit in 30 years, and silver follows? Has silver become more abundant? Have we found replacements for silver in industry? Why are you so bearish on silver? "Don't hoard your silver coins, it will never be profitable." US President Johnson, 1965 He says this precisely because silver bullion was becoming too valuable to describe a shit US dollar, as the mint was in the process of changing to copper-clad coins. http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=3P1OAAAAIBAJ&sjid=XgEEAAAAIBAJ&pg=4613,3314165&dq=don-t+hoard+your+silver&hl=enRichard M Nixon on inflation, 1972: "Gas will NEVER a dollar a gallon.....Bread will NEVER be a dollar a loaf ! "
I am not really good at fundamentals, hence, my explanation might sound layman-ish. I am much better at charting but can't do an analysis now.
The main reason why I am bearish Silver is:
Silver prices have skyrocketed this year mainly behind speculation, which is not justified by the industrial value. This speculation is largely via leveraged tools, and in the current and more severe upcoming crash/crisis, people need to sell stuff to pay their bills, and this includes leveraged Silver derivatives. And Silver is not alone, as all assets will plummet in the midst of this historic crash.
And even if the current price seem to be justifies because of industrial use, this will also change as the economy falters and Silver demand shrinks..
Overall, midterm, over the next couple of years, this will drag Silver down.
Longterm I am relatively bullish Silver. It will be the first indicator that the crash is over. It is wise to keep some physical Silver even if it goes doen in dollar terms. If Silver rises again strongly from low single digits, then a new bull market starts. But based on my longterm time studies, this will not be before 2014. |
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Great comment. They more pushback I get the more convinced I get that I am on the right side. And this has guided me and subscribers very well through the bitcoin swings, but also myself throughout the last decade of financial markets, using only technical patterns.
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evreyone is his own boss, ... but beware catching a falling knife.. it hurts
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I am sorry I do not agree. The Feds will continue to print fiat money and pumping it into our system.
They are heading all one way UP!
Personally I find it ridiculous that gold is where its at but the market does have a "herd" mentality and every crisis sparks everyone running to gold. When silver is in tighter supply than gold.
If you look at the data for silver in 2008 just as we were going into the recession it dropped. Personally I feel we are walking into another recession so if silver drops it will create a great BUY opportunity because when the economy of the world takes off the industries mentioned will need silver and will be willing to pay big bucks for it.
Fully disagree and we can at least agree to disagree :-)
What you are saying is what 99.9% of people believe. Hence, it is too late now, and the opposite will happen. I will bet 5 BTC with you that Silver will drop below 30 $ by Jan 12 and another 5 BTC for a drop below 10 $ somewhere between 2012 and 2015.
And by the way, you do not show the full (and most important) chart history: The previous Silver high of 50 $ in 1980. This means that Silver did not gain at all vs. this high, and when accounting for inflation, Silver today is down massively vs. 30 years ago.. |
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prices just broke through a major , supporting chart tredline.
That move was anticipated in my technical analysis to my subscribers already monday morning
Further downside is likely unless this trendline is claimed back.
I used to stand by S3052, but I call bullshit. Every projection he's made for weeks has said, "Bitcoin is almost definitely going up!" with a tiny caveat, "(but it could also, you know, go down)". His analyses are unfalsifiable. He claims victory every time. If he told his subscribers a crash is nigh as of Monday, than he was feeding us misinformation in his public analysis with: Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ – 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 11$ or 12.5 $ lows. It was correct at that time, and was the right sequence: On Saturday, the 30th we gave the public update. On Monday, August 1, we did the in depth analysis for subscribers which provided new info. But to explain: up from the 11$ to 12.5 lows means also that if prives fall below those levels trend changes. On monday I have done a deep analysis and have seen that the likelyhood to break those levels has increased drmatically. It is fair to my subscribers that they receive this alert exclusively. They have paid a lot of money for that. Everyone can chose to join or not. And as always, everyone needs to make his own trading decisions. |
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I think this is a big problem for bitcoin.
And exactly what governments needed to do to avoid bitcoins becoming a real competition to their national cuccency.
... By making it so complicated that no normal person wants it anymore
I hope I am wrong...
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It looks like it will reach under 10 dollars very soon. If you do the math, just the heavy investments in the rigs shows you all the signs that we will have high pressure on the price when it is still at this levels (around 12 dollars). That without even taking in notice all the other things that are happening plus all the money that has been made in the short term from the early early adapters, many of them still have 1000-10000 % + gains, that is crazy returns in such a short time.
your theory makes sense and is also linked to my chart patterns |
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